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2014 College Bowl Preview

The Army/Navy game concluded our college football regular season. As a result, it’s now Bowl season for the Football Bowl Subdivision. The table below shows all 38 games, along with each team’s SRS ratings, the average of the two teams’ ratings, and the difference between the two ratings.

DateFavoriteSRSUnderdogSRSBowlLocationAvgDiff
12-20-14Utah45.3Colorado St41.1Royal Purple Las Vegas BowlLas Vegas NV43.24.1
12-20-14Utah St37.8UTEP29.6Gildan New Mexico BowlAlbuquerque NM33.78.2
12-20-14Western Michigan34Air Force32.8Famous Idaho Potato BowlBoise ID33.41.2
12-20-14Nevada34.2Louisiana-Lafayette30.2R+L Carriers New Orleans BowlNew Orleans LA32.24
12-20-14South Alabama25.9Bowling Green23.9Raycom Media Camellia BowlMontgomery AL24.92
12-22-14Memphis41.6Brigham Young38.2Miami Beach BowlMiami FL39.93.4
12-23-14Marshall46.3Northern Illinois34Boca Raton BowlBoca Raton FL40.112.3
12-23-14Navy34.6San Diego St32.1San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia BowlSan Diego CA33.42.4
12-24-14Western Kentucky35.5Central Michigan30.2Popeyes Bahamas BowlNassau BA32.85.2
12-24-14Rice30.6Fresno St29.8Hawaii BowlHonolulu HI30.20.8
12-26-14Louisiana Tech43.4Illinois33.7Zaxby`s Heart of Dallas BowlDallas TX38.59.8
12-26-14North Carolina St37.8Central Florida36.8Bitcoin St. Petersburg BowlSt. Petersburg FL37.31
12-26-14North Carolina37Rutgers34.2Quick Lane BowlDetroit MI35.62.8
12-27-14Southern Cal51.3Nebraska47.7National University Holiday BowlSan Diego CA49.53.6
12-27-14Arizona St47.5Duke42.4Hyundai Sun BowlEl Paso TX455.2
12-27-14Miami FL44.1South Carolina41.6Duck Commander Independence BowlShreveport LA42.82.5
12-27-14Virginia Tech41.8Cincinnati39Military BowlAnnapolis MD40.42.9
12-27-14Boston College42.5Penn State37.3New Era Pinstripe BowlBronx NY39.95.2
12-29-14Oklahoma52.8Clemson47.1Russell Athletic Florida Citrus BowlOrlando FL49.95.7
12-29-14Texas A&M47.6West Virginia47.2AutoZone Liberty BowlMemphis TN47.40.4
12-29-14Arkansas52.2Texas41.9Advocare V100 Texas BowlHouston TX4710.3
12-30-14Georgia56.9Louisville47.1Belk BowlCharlotte NC529.9
12-30-14LSU52.3Notre Dame42.9Franklin American Mortgage Music City BowlNashville TN47.69.4
12-30-14Stanford48.3Maryland39.9Foster Farms BowlSanta Clara CA44.18.4
12-31-14TCU60.5Mississippi58Chick-fil-A Peach BowlAtlanta GA59.32.5
12-31-14Mississippi St55.5Georgia Tech50.7Capital One Orange BowlMiami Gardens FL53.14.8
12-31-14Arizona48.6Boise St44.8VIZIO Fiesta BowlGlendale AZ46.73.8
01-01-15Alabama61.6Ohio State57.6Allstate Sugar BowlNew Orleans LA59.64.1
01-01-15Baylor57.4Michigan St56.1Goodyear Cotton Bowl ClassicArlington TX56.81.3
01-01-15Oregon61Florida St51.6Rose Bowl Presented by Northwestern MutualPasadena CA56.39.4
01-01-15Auburn55.9Wisconsin49.7Outback BowlTampa FL52.86.3
01-01-15Missouri48.9Minnesota44Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus BowlOrlando FL46.54.8
01-02-15Kansas St53.7UCLA50.3Valero Alamo BowlSan Antonio TX523.4
01-02-15Tennessee47Iowa41TaxSlayer BowlJacksonville FL446.1
01-02-15Washington44.2Oklahoma St37.8TicketCity Cactus BowlTempe AZ416.4
01-02-15Pittsburgh40Houston33.1Lockheed Martin Armed Forces BowlFort Worth TX36.57
01-03-15Florida47.4East Carolina38Birmingham BowlBirmingham AL42.79.4
01-04-15Arkansas St34.1Toledo33.8GoDaddy BowlMobile AL340.4

Best Bowls

The Sugar Bowl, featuring Alabama and Ohio State, checks in as the best game of Bowl season, as measured by the average ratings of the two teams. The Crimson Tide have the best SRS rating, while Ohio State has the 5th highest rating.

The other playoff matchup comes in the Rose Bowl, but Florida State’s poor rating actually drops them game to #4 behind the Peach Bowl (TCU/Ole Miss) and even the Cotton Bowl Classic (Baylor/Michigan State).

The worst game? That’s South Alabama and Bowling Green in the new Camelia Bowl. Yes, the inaugural game of a new Alabama Bowl game featuring two six-loss teams will kick off at 9:20 on the opening night of Bowl season. Make sure you have your schedule cleared for that one.

Biggest Mismatches

Marshall and Northern Illinois face off in a game that, on the surface, appears to be a very good one. Marshall is 12-1 and a legitimately good team. On the other hand, while Northern Illinois is 11-2, a bunch of close wins against MAC teams doesn’t make UNI a good team. The Huskies lost by 38 against Arkansas and by 17 at home against a bad Central Michigan team. Northern Illinois is 12.3 points worse than Marshall in the SRS, which makes traveling to Boca Raton even more depressing.

Arkansas/Texas, Georgia/Louisville, and Louisiana Tech/Illinois are all 10-point mismatches, too. Of course, Bowl season has a habit of deviating from the regular season script, so don’t blame me when all the underdogs win. According to Vegas, the Foster Farms Bowl at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara is the most lopsided matchup. One reason for that: Stanford is the de facto host here, and the Cardinal are 14 point favorites against Maryland.

Most Competitive

Arkansas State and Toledo face off in the Go Daddy Bowl, which is the final Bowl game until the National Championship Game. You will want to get your last fix of college football regardless, but that actually projects to be a highly competitive game.

Even better is the Texas A&M/West Virginia matchup a week earlier in the Liberty Bowl. Like the Go Daddy Bowl, the favorite here is projected to win by 0.4 points, but these teams are much better. The good news: both games should be shootouts, as Vegas has the Over/Under at 67 for both the Go Daddy Bowl and the Liberty Bowl. This concludes the largest coverage of the Go Daddy Bowl you will see all week.

Come for the Nostalgia, Stay for the Points

Boise State played in the Fiesta Bowl at the conclusion of the 2006 and 2010 seasons, and both games (against Oklahoma and TCU) were outstanding. The Broncos bring a weaker team to Tempe this time around, but with Arizona on the opposite side lines, points will be plentiful. With an over/under of 69.5 points, this is projected to be the highest-scoring game of Bowl season.

Come for the Brands! Ignore Everything Else!

Penn State. Yankee Stadium. That sounds pretty good, and you can bet the attendance will rival what we saw with Notre Dame and Rutgers there last year. But this game should be horrible if you like something called offense: neither PSU nor Boston College are good at scoring, and the Pinstripe Bowl has a habit of looking ugly. The over/under here is 40, by far the lowest of Bowl season.

Notre Dame! LSU! Okay, the Music City Bowl may not be the Grandaddy of them All, but you do have two of college fotball’s biggest brands taking the stage. One problem: Notre Dame has lost 5 of 6 games, with the lone win coming against Navy. The Irish are not nearly as good as LSU, and this one could get out of hand early.

Life After January 1

The lower-tier Bowl games that take place after January 1 are usually reserved for some of college football’s weakest bowl-eligible teams. That makes the fact that Florida will be playing East Carolina in the Birmingham Bowl kind of incredible, and a good summary of the Gators season. One could say something similar about Oklahoma State: the Cowboys won 50 games from 2009 to 2013, but a 6-6 season in 2014 has left OSU playing in the Cactus Bowl on January 2nd.

The Cactus Bowl is not a new game: it used to be the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl and before that, the Insight Bowl. Buffalo Wild Wings now sponsors the Citrus Bowl, so a new name was needed for the Bowl game in Tempe, Arizona. The game has historically been played at the end of December, but was moved to early January because…, well, I have no idea why and I’m not going to research it, either.

One potentially good post-January 1 game: UCLA and Kansas State in the Valero Alamo Bowl. It features a pair of SRS top 20 teams with 9-3 records. Four of those losses came at the hands of Oregon, TCU, Baylor, and Auburn. For lower-tier bowl games, this is as good as it gets.

Finally, let’s close with a final list of the SRS ratings.

RkTeamConfConf RkGMOVSOSSRSREC
1AlabamaSEC11317.344.361.612-1
2OregonP1211321406112-1
3TCUB1211221.838.760.511-1
4MississippiSEC2121444589-3
5Ohio StateB1011319.338.357.612-1
6BaylorB1221220.337.157.411-1
7GeorgiaSEC3121640.956.99-3
8Michigan StB1021219.13756.110-2
9AuburnSEC4128.347.755.98-4
10Mississippi StSEC51214.640.855.510-2
11Kansas StB1231212.341.453.79-3
12OklahomaB1241211.241.652.88-4
13LSUSEC612844.352.38-4
14ArkansasSEC7128.343.952.26-6
15Florida StACC11312.239.451.613-0
16Southern CalP1221210.34151.38-4
17Georgia TechACC2131139.750.710-3
18UCLAP123125.34550.39-3
19WisconsinB1031312.137.649.710-3
20MissouriSEC8136.242.748.910-3
21ArizonaP124137.341.348.610-3
22StanfordP125128.539.848.37-5
23NebraskaB1041210.737.147.79-3
24Texas A&MSEC9125.442.247.67-5
25Arizona StP126128.838.847.59-3
26FloridaSEC10116.241.147.46-5
27West VirginiaB125125.441.847.27-5
28ClemsonACC3129.837.347.19-3
29LouisvilleACC412113647.19-3
30TennesseeSEC11122.444.6476-6
31MarshallCUSA11320.525.746.312-1
32UtahP127123.841.545.38-4
33Boise StMWC11311.733.144.811-2
34WashingtonP128136.33844.28-5
35Miami FLACC5124.739.444.16-6
36MinnesotaB105124.939.1448-4
37Louisiana TechCUSA21310.632.843.48-5
38Notre DameInd1122.640.342.97-5
39Boston CollegeACC6125.137.442.57-5
40DukeACC71210.43242.49-3
41TexasB12612-0.742.541.96-6
42Virginia TechACC8122.639.241.86-6
43MemphisAmer11214.427.241.69-3
44South CarolinaSEC12120.940.741.66-6
45Colorado StMWC21211.829.341.110-2
46IowaB106123.737.3417-5
47VirginiaACC9120.240.340.55-7
48PittsburghACC10123.936.1406-6
49MarylandB107120.839.139.97-5
50CincinnatiAmer2127.931.1399-3
51Brigham YoungInd2128.829.438.28-4
52East CarolinaAmer31210.327.7388-4
53CaliforniaP12912-34137.95-7
54Utah StMWC3136.93137.89-4
55Oklahoma StB12712-4.342.137.86-6
56North Carolina StACC11122.135.737.87-5
57KentuckySEC1312-340.737.75-7
58MichiganB10812-1.739.437.75-7
59Penn StateB109120.736.637.36-6
60North CarolinaACC1212-3.140.2376-6
61Central FloridaAmer412927.836.89-3
62NorthwesternB101012-2.438.536.15-7
63Georgia SouthernSun11213.322.435.69-3
64Western KentuckyCUSA312530.435.57-5
65NavyInd312430.634.67-5
66RutgersB101112-3.437.634.27-5
67NevadaMWC4122.731.534.27-5
68Arkansas StSun2127.12734.17-5
69Western MichiganMAC1129.624.4348-4
70Northern IllinoisMAC2138.125.93411-2
71Washington StP121012-7.541.333.83-9
72ToledoMAC3124.828.933.88-4
73IllinoisB101212-6.139.833.76-6
74Alabama-BirminghamCUSA4122.730.733.46-6
75Oregon StP121112-639.133.15-7
76HoustonAmer5127.525.633.17-5
77Texas TechB12812-9.842.732.94-8
78Air ForceMWC5126.82632.89-3
79San Diego StMWC6124.827.432.17-5
80ColoradoP121212-10.342.231.92-10
81SyracuseACC1312-839.731.73-9
82TempleAmer6123.627.931.56-6
83IndianaB101312-6.738.231.44-8
84PurdueB101412-8.839.430.73-9
85RiceCUSA512-0.330.930.67-5
86Iowa StB12912-13.944.130.32-10
87Central MichiganMAC4122.927.330.27-5
88Louisiana-LafayetteSun3122.627.630.28-4
89Fresno StMWC713-3.132.829.86-7
90UTEPCUSA6120.429.229.67-5
91KansasB121012-12.941.628.73-9
92Middle Tennessee StCUSA712-0.529.128.66-6
93Appalachian StSun4125.822.2287-5
94Florida Int'lCUSA812-2.328.826.54-8
95Texas St-San MarcosSun5124.32226.37-5
96WyomingMWC812-9.235.526.34-8
97VanderbiltSEC1412-14.740.826.13-9
98Ball StMAC512026265-7
99South AlabamaSun612-2.928.825.96-6
100Hawai`iMWC913-6.632.225.64-9
101Wake ForestACC1412-11.135.824.63-9
102Louisiana-MonroeSun712-5.53024.64-8
103Florida AtlanticCUSA912-8.332.724.43-9
104Old DominionCUSA1012-4.528.5246-6
105Bowling GreenMAC613-3.427.323.97-6
106AkronMAC712-0.524.323.85-7
107New MexicoMWC1012-7.531.223.74-8
108San José StMWC1112-8.53223.53-9
109BuffaloMAC811122.423.45-6
110Ohio U.MAC912-427.323.36-6
111Texas-San AntonioCUSA1112-8.231.2234-8
112South FloridaAmer712-9.131.822.74-8
113TulaneAmer812-1234.322.33-9
114Southern MissCUSA1212-13.834.720.93-9
115North TexasCUSA1312-4.825.620.84-8
116MassachusettsMAC1012-5.626.420.83-9
117ArmyInd412-7.727.820.14-8
118Miami OHMAC1112-9.429.119.72-10
119TulsaAmer912-13.331.918.52-10
120Kent StMAC1211-11.229.418.22-9
121ConnecticutAmer1012-13.630.216.62-10
122TroySun812-11.527.616.23-9
123UNLVMWC1213-15.130.715.62-11
124IdahoSun911-12.626.714.11-10
125New Mexico StSun1012-12.826.613.82-10
126SMUAmer1112-24.23611.91-11
127Georgia StSun1112-1829.111.11-11
128Eastern MichiganMAC1312-20.630.49.82-10
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