A couple of weeks ago, I looked at the Adjusted Yards per Carry data for 2014 offenses; today, the same information but for the other side of the ball. As a reminder, here’s the formula for calculating Adjusted Yards per Carry:
Adjusted Rushing Yards per Carry = (Rush Yards + 11 * Rush TDs + 9 * Rush First Downs – Kneel Yards Lost ) / (Rushes – Kneels)
Let’s use the Detroit Lions defense as an example. The Lions faced 350 rush attempts last year and allowed 1,109 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. However, seven of those rushing attempts were actually kneels by the opponent (for -7 “rushing yards”), so we need to back those out of the data. The Lions also allowed 59 rushing first downs, or a first down on 17.2% of all carries. As a result, Detroit allowed 5.06 Adjusted Rushing Yards per Carry last year, the best rate in the NFL. The league average last year was 6.63, which means the Lions were over a yard and a half above average per carry. Multiply that difference by the 343 non-kneel runs that Detroit faced, and the Lions rush defense was 541 Adjusted Rushing Yards above average (here, negative is better), the top value-producing rush defense in the NFL in 2014.
| Rk | Tm | Rush | Yd | TD | Kneel | KY | 1D | 1D Rate | ARY/C | VALUE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | 350 | 1109 | 8 | 7 | -7 | 59 | 17.2% | 5.06 | -541 |
| 2 | SEA | 380 | 1304 | 8 | 7 | -6 | 70 | 18.8% | 5.44 | -447 |
| 3 | DEN | 349 | 1276 | 9 | 5 | -4 | 60 | 17.4% | 5.58 | -363 |
| 4 | BAL | 390 | 1412 | 8 | 7 | -7 | 75 | 19.6% | 5.70 | -359 |
| 5 | PHI | 473 | 1771 | 14 | 16 | -16 | 88 | 19.3% | 5.98 | -299 |
| 6 | NYJ | 393 | 1489 | 10 | 16 | -17 | 74 | 19.6% | 6.05 | -219 |
| 7 | WAS | 421 | 1722 | 11 | 9 | -8 | 77 | 18.7% | 6.17 | -189 |
| 8 | NWE | 419 | 1669 | 6 | 12 | -14 | 88 | 21.6% | 6.24 | -159 |
| 9 | HOU | 420 | 1681 | 6 | 15 | -15 | 89 | 22.0% | 6.33 | -124 |
| 10 | SFO | 402 | 1612 | 7 | 13 | -24 | 83 | 21.3% | 6.32 | -121 |
| 11 | OAK | 481 | 1911 | 17 | 18 | -22 | 95 | 20.5% | 6.43 | -97 |
| 12 | TAM | 468 | 1819 | 15 | 15 | -14 | 103 | 22.7% | 6.46 | -80 |
| 13 | STL | 425 | 1765 | 12 | 15 | -16 | 83 | 20.2% | 6.49 | -60 |
| 14 | BUF | 414 | 1703 | 10 | 10 | -10 | 89 | 22.0% | 6.50 | -56 |
| 15 | CHI | 421 | 1803 | 12 | 17 | -20 | 78 | 19.3% | 6.58 | -23 |
| 16 | JAX | 499 | 2033 | 15 | 18 | -17 | 107 | 22.2% | 6.61 | -13 |
| 17 | ARI | 396 | 1739 | 9 | 12 | -13 | 77 | 20.1% | 6.63 | -4 |
| 18 | MIA | 453 | 1937 | 13 | 10 | -12 | 99 | 22.3% | 6.73 | 44 |
| 19 | MIN | 450 | 1943 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 100 | 23.0% | 6.82 | 82 |
| 20 | DAL | 392 | 1650 | 18 | 10 | -9 | 86 | 22.5% | 6.89 | 97 |
| 21 | SDG | 438 | 1986 | 11 | 2 | -1 | 98 | 22.5% | 6.86 | 98 |
| 22 | PIT | 368 | 1605 | 9 | 8 | -8 | 88 | 24.4% | 6.96 | 116 |
| 23 | CIN | 439 | 1861 | 16 | 7 | -8 | 105 | 24.3% | 6.92 | 124 |
| 24 | IND | 423 | 1814 | 14 | 11 | -10 | 103 | 25.0% | 7.05 | 172 |
| 25 | ATL | 450 | 1894 | 21 | 10 | -14 | 108 | 24.5% | 7.07 | 192 |
| 26 | GNB | 449 | 1919 | 11 | 12 | -13 | 116 | 26.5% | 7.09 | 198 |
| 27 | TEN | 515 | 2195 | 17 | 22 | -21 | 119 | 24.1% | 7.05 | 203 |
| 28 | CAR | 397 | 1792 | 14 | 13 | -10 | 91 | 23.7% | 7.23 | 227 |
| 29 | KAN | 433 | 2036 | 4 | 13 | -14 | 108 | 25.7% | 7.30 | 280 |
| 30 | CLE | 500 | 2265 | 13 | 10 | -12 | 126 | 25.7% | 7.25 | 303 |
| 31 | NOR | 442 | 2125 | 17 | 11 | -12 | 111 | 25.8% | 7.71 | 464 |
| 32 | NYG | 438 | 2162 | 15 | 16 | -18 | 112 | 26.5% | 7.95 | 553 |
- In a post-Ndamukong Suh, C.J. Mosley, and Nick Fairley world, can the Lions defense come close to repeating, or will Detroit’s 2015 defense look more like, well, just about every other Detroit defense?
- The Seahawks and Broncos both ranked in the top three against the rush (using this formula) and the pass (using this formula), while teams like the Ravens, Eagles, and Jets were much more one-sided (to say nothing of Washington’s historically terrible pass defense).
- On the other side, the two worst rush defenses last year belonged to the Saints and Giants. That’s probably not much of a surprise to many folks, either.
Finally, let’s look at how each team fared in Adjusted Yards per Carry on both offense and defense. To make the place to be the upper right quadrant of the chart, I’ve plotted defensive AYPC (on the Y-Axis) in reverse order. As you can see, Seattle stands out as pretty effective in the running game.
As always, please leave your thoughts in the comments.