There are few statistics more random in all of sports than fumble recoveries. When a football is on the ground, it’s not the case that better teams are more likely to fall on the ball than bad teams: in the NFL, recovering fumbles is nearly all luck and little skill. This is a fact widely accepted by all statisticians, and I also ran a study which confirmed such intuition just last year.
The 49ers fumbled 18 times in 2014; San Francisco also forced 18 fumbles. When the 49ers fumbled, they managed to recover (or have the ball go harmlessly out of bounds) just six fumbles; when they forced a fumble, they… also only recovered just six times! So of the 36 times the ball hit the ground, San Francisco recovered 12 times, and lost it 24 times.
That makes the 49ers one of the most unlucky teams in the NFL with respect to fumbles. A really lucky team would be Arizona, which means we can double down on our Cardinals 2015 regression theories. [1]With, again, the caveat that Arizona was really lucky for a team that lost its top two quarterbacks, whatever that means. On offense, Arizona fumbled 16 times, but lost just five of those fumbles. Given that in the 2014 NFL season, the fumbling team lost 46% of all fumbles this year, that means Arizona “should” have lost 7.4 of those 16 fumbles; in other words, the Cardinals lost 2.4 fewer fumbles than expected.
On defense, Arizona forced 13 fumbles and recovered 7 of those. Using the same math, Arizona would have been expected to recover 6 of the fumbles. So Arizona recovered 3.4 more fumbles than you would expect, when you combine both sides of the ball. Thought of another way, there were 29 fumbles in Cardinals games this year, and Arizona recovered an NFL-high 62.1% of them.
| Rk | Tm | Fum | FL | FL vs. Exp | OppFum | Opp FumL | Opp FL vs. Exp | Total vs. Exp | Tot F | Tot FR | Rec% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | 27 | 11 | -1.4 | 19 | 11 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 46 | 27 | 58.7% |
| 2 | ARI | 16 | 5 | -2.3 | 13 | 7 | 1 | 3.4 | 29 | 18 | 62.1% |
| 3 | SDG | 15 | 5 | -1.9 | 22 | 11 | 0.9 | 2.8 | 37 | 21 | 56.8% |
| 4 | JAX | 15 | 8 | 1.1 | 22 | 14 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 37 | 21 | 56.8% |
| 5 | HOU | 19 | 9 | 0.3 | 24 | 14 | 3 | 2.7 | 43 | 24 | 55.8% |
| 6 | ATL | 16 | 8 | 0.7 | 19 | 12 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 35 | 20 | 57.1% |
| 7 | NWE | 13 | 4 | -2 | 19 | 9 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 32 | 18 | 56.3% |
| 8 | BUF | 22 | 10 | -0.1 | 20 | 11 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 42 | 23 | 54.8% |
| 9 | NYJ | 25 | 9 | -2.5 | 17 | 7 | -0.8 | 1.7 | 42 | 23 | 54.8% |
| 10 | GNB | 19 | 7 | -1.7 | 20 | 9 | -0.2 | 1.5 | 39 | 21 | 53.8% |
| 11 | STL | 27 | 11 | -1.4 | 26 | 12 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 53 | 28 | 52.8% |
| 12 | TEN | 23 | 10 | -0.6 | 7 | 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 30 | 17 | 56.7% |
| 13 | WAS | 31 | 13 | -1.2 | 26 | 12 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 57 | 30 | 52.6% |
| 14 | SEA | 23 | 7 | -3.6 | 30 | 11 | -2.8 | 0.8 | 53 | 27 | 50.9% |
| 15 | MIN | 12 | 2 | -3.5 | 20 | 6 | -3.2 | 0.3 | 32 | 16 | 50% |
| 16 | BAL | 16 | 8 | 0.7 | 22 | 11 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 38 | 19 | 50% |
| 17 | PHI | 25 | 15 | 3.5 | 27 | 16 | 3.6 | 0.1 | 52 | 26 | 50% |
| 18 | IND | 31 | 15 | 0.8 | 29 | 14 | 0.7 | -0.1 | 60 | 30 | 50% |
| 19 | DET | 21 | 8 | -1.6 | 19 | 7 | -1.7 | -0.1 | 40 | 20 | 50% |
| 20 | TAM | 29 | 13 | -0.3 | 25 | 11 | -0.5 | -0.2 | 54 | 27 | 50% |
| 21 | DEN | 16 | 5 | -2.3 | 21 | 7 | -2.6 | -0.3 | 37 | 18 | 48.6% |
| 22 | CAR | 25 | 11 | -0.5 | 28 | 12 | -0.9 | -0.4 | 53 | 26 | 49.1% |
| 23 | DAL | 21 | 14 | 4.4 | 20 | 13 | 3.8 | -0.5 | 41 | 20 | 48.8% |
| 24 | CIN | 20 | 9 | -0.2 | 15 | 6 | -0.9 | -0.7 | 35 | 17 | 48.6% |
| 25 | KAN | 22 | 11 | 0.9 | 17 | 8 | 0.2 | -0.7 | 39 | 19 | 48.7% |
| 26 | CLE | 17 | 7 | -0.8 | 23 | 8 | -2.6 | -1.8 | 40 | 18 | 45% |
| 27 | CHI | 19 | 10 | 1.3 | 25 | 10 | -1.5 | -2.8 | 44 | 19 | 43.2% |
| 28 | PIT | 16 | 11 | 3.7 | 20 | 10 | 0.8 | -2.8 | 36 | 15 | 41.7% |
| 29 | OAK | 28 | 13 | 0.1 | 19 | 5 | -3.7 | -3.9 | 47 | 20 | 42.6% |
| 30 | NOR | 22 | 13 | 2.9 | 15 | 5 | -1.9 | -4.8 | 37 | 14 | 37.8% |
| 31 | SFO | 18 | 12 | 3.7 | 18 | 6 | -2.3 | -6 | 36 | 12 | 33.3% |
| 32 | NYG | 21 | 14 | 4.4 | 24 | 9 | -2 | -6.4 | 45 | 16 | 35.6% |
The 49ers and Giants were the two unluckiest teams this year when it comes to fumbles. Here’s how to read the New York line: The Giants fumbled 21 times, and lost 14 of them; given the 46% fumble loss rate, that means New York lost 4.4 more fumbles than expected. The Giants opponents fumbled 24 times, but lost just 9 of them; this means that Giants opponents lost two fewer fumbles than expected. As a result, the Giants recovered 6.4 fewer fumbles than expected. There were 45 total fumbles in Giants games in 2014, and New York recovered just 16 of them, for a 35.6% rate.
Seattle, Minnesota led the way in offensive recovery rate
The Seahawks fumbled 23 times, but lost just 7 of those fumbles. The Vikings fumbled only twelve times, and lost just two, despite Teddy Bridgewater’s small hands. In fact, Bridgewater did not lose a single fumble all year, with Matt Asiata and Cordarrelle Patterson being the two culprits. Both Seattle and Minnesota lost about 3.5 fewer fumbles than would be “expected” based on league averages.
Giants, Cowboys worst in offensive recovery rates
New York and Dallas each fumbled 21 times, and each incredibly lost 14 of those fumbles. Giants fans can blame Eli Manning for just four of those fumbles, as Larry Donnell (4), Quintin Demps (2), [2]Yes, that’s safety Quintin Demps, who fumbled once on an interception return and once on a kickoff return. Rashad Jennings, Preston Parker, Daniel Fells, and yes, even Odell Beckham, combined for the other ten. For Dallas, DeMarco Murray (5) and Tony Romo (3) led the way on lost fumbles, with Dwayne Harris, Joseph Randle, and the gritty Cole Beasley each losing two fumbles apiece.
Raiders least lucky team at recovering opponents’ fumbles
Oakland opponents fumbled 19 times this year, but the Raiders turned just five of those into turnovers. Given the 46% rate, Oakland would have been expected to recover 8.7 fumbles, leaving Oakland’s opponents with 3.7 fewer lost fumbles than expected. For all the fumble luck the Vikings had with the ball, Minnesota gave it back when it came to opponent’s fumbles. There were 32 fumbles in Minnesota games this year, and the Vikings gained possession after exactly 16 of them.
Jaguars, Cowboys, most lucky at recovering opponents’ fumbles
Dallas opponents fumbled 20 times, and the Cowboys recovered an incredible 13 of them, offsetting the poor luck the team had on offense. Jacksonville was slightly better, recovering 14 of 22 opponents fumbles.
Dolphins, Giants at extremes
To recap: Miami was the luckiest team this year at recovering fumbles, as the Dolphins recovered 3.7 more fumbles than we would expect given league averages. The Giants, meanwhile, recovered 6.4 fewer fumbles than expected.