On July 8th, Bovada released some early MVP odds, so I figured it would be fun to take a few minutes and examine which players seem like the best and worst bets. Bovada listed odds for 40 players. For example, Peyton Manning has odds of “3/1” which implies that he has a 25% chance of winning the MVP (if you bet $10 on Manning, you get your $10 back plus $30 from the casino). The odds for all 40 players sum to about 140%, which means there’s a healthy house cushion built into these odds. And it’s even worse than that, as Bovada did not include a “Field” category, so the 140% doesn’t even include all possibilities. In any event, I divided each player’s implied odds by 140% to get “adjusted” percentages (or vigorish-adjusted odds) of winning the MVP. Take a look:
| Rk | Name | Odds | Perc | Adj% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Peyton Manning | 3/1 | 0.25 | 0.179 |
| 2 | Drew Brees | 11/2 | 0.154 | 0.11 |
| 3 | Aaron Rodgers | 15/2 | 0.118 | 0.084 |
| 4 | Tom Brady | 9/1 | 0.1 | 0.072 |
| 5 | Andrew Luck | 16/1 | 0.059 | 0.042 |
| 6 | Jay Cutler | 20/1 | 0.048 | 0.034 |
| 6 | Matthew Stafford | 20/1 | 0.048 | 0.034 |
| 8 | Adrian Peterson | 25/1 | 0.038 | 0.028 |
| 8 | Calvin Johnson | 25/1 | 0.038 | 0.028 |
| 8 | Cam Newton | 25/1 | 0.038 | 0.028 |
| 8 | Colin Kaepernick | 25/1 | 0.038 | 0.028 |
| 8 | LeSean McCoy | 25/1 | 0.038 | 0.028 |
| 8 | Robert Griffin III | 25/1 | 0.038 | 0.028 |
| 8 | Russell Wilson | 25/1 | 0.038 | 0.028 |
| 15 | Matt Ryan | 33/1 | 0.029 | 0.021 |
| 16 | Nick Foles | 40/1 | 0.024 | 0.017 |
| 17 | Ben Roethlisberger | 50/1 | 0.02 | 0.014 |
| 17 | Eli Manning | 50/1 | 0.02 | 0.014 |
| 17 | Marshawn Lynch | 50/1 | 0.02 | 0.014 |
| 17 | Philip Rivers | 50/1 | 0.02 | 0.014 |
| 17 | Tony Romo | 50/1 | 0.02 | 0.014 |
| 22 | Brandon Marshall | 66/1 | 0.015 | 0.011 |
| 22 | Demaryius Thomas | 66/1 | 0.015 | 0.011 |
| 22 | Dez Bryant | 66/1 | 0.015 | 0.011 |
| 22 | Jamaal Charles | 66/1 | 0.015 | 0.011 |
| 22 | Jimmy Graham | 66/1 | 0.015 | 0.011 |
| 22 | Julio Jones | 66/1 | 0.015 | 0.011 |
| 22 | Matt Forte | 66/1 | 0.015 | 0.011 |
| 29 | Andy Dalton | 100/1 | 0.01 | 0.007 |
| 29 | Arian Foster | 100/1 | 0.01 | 0.007 |
| 29 | Eddie Lacy | 100/1 | 0.01 | 0.007 |
| 29 | Joe Flacco | 100/1 | 0.01 | 0.007 |
| 29 | Johnny Manziel | 100/1 | 0.01 | 0.007 |
| 29 | Rob Gronkowski | 100/1 | 0.01 | 0.007 |
| 35 | Alex Smith | 150/1 | 0.007 | 0.005 |
| 35 | Alfred Morris | 150/1 | 0.007 | 0.005 |
| 35 | Antonio Brown | 150/1 | 0.007 | 0.005 |
| 35 | C.J. Spiller | 150/1 | 0.007 | 0.005 |
| 39 | DeMarco Murray | 200/1 | 0.005 | 0.004 |
| 39 | Frank Gore | 200/1 | 0.005 | 0.004 |
| Total | 1.397 | 1.000 |
We all know that quarterback is, by far, the most likely position to snag the AP trophy. Adrian Peterson, Calvin Johnson, and LeSean McCoy are the three non-quarterbacks with the highest odds, and each are at 25:1. It seems to me like McCoy is the best bet of the three, since (1) Peterson just won two years ago (which could hurt him in a close race) and is on the wrong side of the running back aging curve, and (2) Megatron has already posted monster numbers several times and never come close to snagging an MVP or OPOY award. [1]Oh, and no wide receiver has ever won the AP MVP award, so getting 8/1 odds on Johnson is hardly enticing. Dez Bryant, Jamaal Charles, Jimmy Graham, C.J. Spiller, and DeMarco Murray stick out to me as the most enticing longshots among non-quarterbacks, but let’s instead focus on the position most likely to receive the award.
Since 1970, 30 quarterbacks have won the AP MVP trophy, including in 10 of the last 13 years (Peterson ’12, LaDainian Tomlinson ’06, and Shaun Alexander ’05 are the lone exceptions). The table below shows how each quarterback did relative to league average in several major categories. For example, here’s how to read Manning’s line from last year. His completion percentage was 112% of league average, his gross passing yards was 145% of league average, and his passing touchdowns was 219% of league average. For the next three categories, lower is better: His number of interceptions was 40% of league average, and his number of sacks and sack yards lost were 44% and 45% of league average. Manning’s gross number of pass attempts was 116% of league average, and his ANY/A was 151% of league average. His team’s number of wins, pro-rated to 16-games for all seasons, was 13.0.
| Year | Name | Tm | CMP% | PYD | PTD | INT | SK | SKYD | ATT | ANY/A | Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | Peyton Manning | DEN | 112% | 145% | 219% | 40% | 44% | 45% | 116% | 151% | 13 |
| 2011 | Aaron Rodgers | GNB | 114% | 126% | 193% | 26% | 97% | 91% | 92% | 159% | 15 |
| 2010 | Tom Brady | NWE | 108% | 110% | 153% | 17% | 71% | 75% | 91% | 144% | 14 |
| 2009 | Peyton Manning | IND | 113% | 129% | 149% | 72% | 29% | 34% | 107% | 133% | 14 |
| 2008 | Peyton Manning | IND | 110% | 118% | 134% | 59% | 43% | 42% | 107% | 121% | 12 |
| 2007 | Tom Brady | NWE | 113% | 140% | 222% | 36% | 61% | 57% | 109% | 161% | 16 |
| 2004 | Peyton Manning | IND | 113% | 135% | 214% | 44% | 35% | 43% | 97% | 174% | 12 |
| 2003 | Peyton Manning | IND | 114% | 133% | 142% | 49% | 53% | 50% | 110% | 141% | 12 |
| 2003 | Steve McNair | TEN | 106% | 100% | 117% | 34% | 56% | 51% | 78% | 150% | 12 |
| 2002 | Rich Gannon | OAK | 113% | 138% | 120% | 46% | 98% | 91% | 114% | 130% | 11 |
| 2001 | Kurt Warner | STL | 116% | 147% | 176% | 107% | 98% | 96% | 105% | 143% | 14 |
| 1999 | Kurt Warner | STL | 114% | 128% | 191% | 61% | 72% | 78% | 92% | 160% | 13 |
| 1997 | Brett Favre | GNB | 105% | 120% | 170% | 78% | 60% | 63% | 98% | 132% | 13 |
| 1996 | Brett Favre | GNB | 104% | 117% | 187% | 62% | 108% | 102% | 102% | 129% | 13 |
| 1995 | Brett Favre | GNB | 108% | 125% | 172% | 59% | 92% | 92% | 102% | 134% | 11 |
| 1994 | Steve Young | SFO | 121% | 116% | 168% | 48% | 93% | 74% | 86% | 153% | 13 |
| 1992 | Steve Young | SFO | 116% | 115% | 136% | 38% | 71% | 54% | 84% | 166% | 14 |
| 1990 | Joe Montana | SFO | 110% | 127% | 127% | 78% | 76% | 57% | 108% | 124% | 14 |
| 1989 | Joe Montana | SFO | 126% | 104% | 125% | 38% | 84% | 69% | 75% | 159% | 14 |
| 1988 | Boomer Esiason | CIN | 106% | 111% | 141% | 71% | 81% | 89% | 77% | 155% | 12 |
| 1987 | John Elway | DEN | 100% | 105% | 87% | 55% | 51% | 47% | 85% | 134% | 11.2 |
| 1984 | Dan Marino | MIA | 114% | 154% | 219% | 77% | 28% | 34% | 110% | 179% | 14 |
| 1983 | Joe Theismann | WAS | 106% | 113% | 130% | 49% | 78% | 73% | 91% | 144% | 14 |
| 1981 | Ken Anderson | CIN | 115% | 115% | 137% | 47% | 69% | 48% | 95% | 149% | 12 |
| 1980 | Brian Sipe | CLE | 108% | 132% | 139% | 65% | 62% | 75% | 113% | 138% | 11 |
| 1978 | Terry Bradshaw | PIT | 106% | 115% | 168% | 120% | 58% | 74% | 87% | 150% | 14 |
| 1976 | Bert Jones | BAL | 116% | 146% | 156% | 58% | 79% | 95% | 94% | 191% | 12.6 |
| 1975 | Fran Tarkenton | MIN | 122% | 131% | 150% | 78% | 77% | 87% | 111% | 146% | 13.7 |
| 1974 | Ken Stabler | OAK | 109% | 115% | 180% | 83% | 57% | 55% | 84% | 180% | 13.7 |
| 1970 | John Brodie | SFO | 115% | 130% | 146% | 61% | 24% | 24% | 100% | 181% | 12 |
| Average | 112% | 125% | 159% | 59% | 67% | 65% | 97% | 150% | 13 |
Voters are not swayed by lots of yards courtesy of many attempts.
With that data in hand, here are my thoughts on Bovada’s odds on the quarterbacks, knowing that touchdowns, interceptions, ANY/A, and wins are the big numbers to focus on:
- Peyton Manning is the slam dunk favorite to win the MVP. He’s the favorite to lead the NFL in TDs and ANY/A, and the Broncos are one of the favorites to have the best record in the NFL. There’s a limit to how high a player’s MVP odds really can be, but at 3/1, Vegas may even be factoring in some Manning fatigue among voters.
- I agree that Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers are the next two best bets, but they have roughly equal chances in my mind. So I’d say Brees is a bit overvalued, Rodgers a bit undervalued.
- It feels weird seeing Tom Brady so high on this list after a down 2013 season, but I agree with his placement at #4. He throws so few interceptions and the Patriots are so consistently good that it’s hard to think Brady is ever too far out of the MVP running.
- Ignoring team wins for a moment, my next two quarterbacks would probably be Nick Foles and Tony Romo. Both have the potential for 30+ TD seasons with minimal interceptions and solid efficiency numbers. Vegas has Foles and Romo at the back end of the top 20; that seems off to me, especially with Andrew Luck, Jay Cutler, and Matthew Stafford ahead of them. Luck does seem on the verge of a breakout season, but he’d have to make significant improvements across the board to be the MVP. Cutler and Stafford both have interception issues and injury question marks: I don’t see why either would be ahead of Foles or Romo, much less significantly ahead of both. While Vegas may think that MVP voters like volume, we just saw that throwing touchdowns and efficiency metrics are most correlated with taking home the trophy; in that regard, Foles/Romo certainly appear to have the edge on Cutler/Stafford.
- What if we don’t ignore wins? I don’t really know what to do with Russell Wilson or Colin Kaepernick. Both could easily be on teams that lead the NFL in wins, and I wouldn’t be shocked if either finished in the top three in ANY/A. The voters do seem to penalize for sacks more than I would have guessed — and that’s an issue for both Wilson and Kaepernick — but good running seasons could be enough to steal the MVP. A sweep by either team in their matchups, a 13- or 14-win season, and just slight improvement on 2013 numbers may be enough to win the MVP. At 25/1, both seem like good plays.
- How is Cam Newton also listed at 25/1? [2]Vegas did see what happened in Carolina this off-season, right? How is Eli Manning tied with Romo and Philip Rivers at 50/1? Rivers would probably be next on my list after Manning/Brees/Rodgers/Brady/Wilson/Kaepernick/Foles/Romo. Eli wouldn’t be in my top 15 of quarterbacks most likely to win the MVP this year. Like the Johnny Manziel at 100/1 pick, I think Vegas just put certain players on the list at higher odds than appropriate just because Vegas is in the busy of making money. There are, I suspect, a lot of people who want to put money on Eli or Manziel just because they’re from New York or “why not?”
- I’m surprised to see RG3 come off the board at 25/1. Is this a case of Vegas knowing something we don’t, or is this more like the Manning/Manziel picks? I like Griffin, but putting him ahead of Rivers, Romo, and Foles, and tied with Kaepernick and Wilson, seems really hard to justify.
So to recap, I like Rivers, Foles, and Romo, and can’t quite fathom the odds for Eli Manning, Manziel, or Newton. I think Wilson and Kaepernick are solid bets, but would back away from NFC North QBs not named Rodgers and the 2012 quarterback class other than Foles. What do you think?
References
| ↑1 | Oh, and no wide receiver has ever won the AP MVP award, so getting 8/1 odds on Johnson is hardly enticing. |
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| ↑2 | Vegas did see what happened in Carolina this off-season, right? |