Tomorrow, the newest members of the Pro Football Hall of Fame will be announced.  There are three first-year candidates that are finalists: Junior Seau, Kurt Warner, and Orlando Pace. This year, the Seniors’ Committee was only allowed to select one candidate, and that was Mick Tingelhoff; the former Vikings center will receive a simple up or down vote, and will not take a space from any of the 15 modern-era candidates (of which a maximum of five will be selected).

In addition, the Hall will open its doors to a special class of Contributors, who, like the Seniors’ choices, will receive a yes or no vote where 80% is required for induction. The choices this year are Bill Polian and Ron Wolf.   So we could have as many as eight members in the Class of 2015, and there’s a very good chance that we’ll have exactly that many.  While the Seniors’ Committee selection is not guaranteed induction, Tingelhoff is a strong candidate and I doubt he would have been chosen if they didn’t think he would be selected; ditto Polian and Wolf, and my guess is the “Contributor” choices will have a pretty easy time gaining entry most years.  Let’s take a look at all 18 candidates, courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference:

What follows are my thoughts on the SHOULD HE (and not the WILL HE) question for the Class of 2015. Both questions are fine to answer, as long as you specify which one you are answering.

Junior Seau has been a first-ballot Hall of Famer for about ten years. It will be a somber induction, of course, with Seau being posthumously selected following his suicide in May 2012. His induction in early August will again bring the questions of concussions and CTE into the headlines on what is otherwise one of the league’s most prideful events.

But let’s not forget that Seau the player was above criticism. His 12 Pro Bowls and 6 first-team All-Pros tell part of the story; his 127 points of career AV puts him in a class that solely consists of Hall of Famers and future first-ballot Hall of Famers. He was the best linebacker of the ’90s, and other than Derrick Thomas — who essentially played the same position in name only — nobody else was even close to as dominant as Seau during that era.

Marvin Harrison should have been a first-ballot choice last year. Statistically speaking, he’s the second most dominant wide receiver in the NFL over the last 70 years. He’s a slam dunk candidate.

Given the backlog of worthy candidates, I would probably make some of the newer candidates wait their turn in line. Is that fair? Of course not! But Tim Brown has been a deserving member for years, and it is time that he is inducted. Here is what I wrote about Brown this time last year:

A few years ago, Tim Brown had my vote over both Cris Carter and Andre Reed. I’m glad Carter was selected, believe Brown to be very deserving, and think Reed has the least compelling case. Brown should get into Canton, but I would have him join Williams in the “wait until next year line.” I wouldn’t argue vehemently against Reed, but I think he’s a borderline candidate. Another factor working against Reed is that he caught 71% of his receiving yards from a Hall of Fame quarterback in Jim Kelly, a luxury not afforded to Brown (who caught 32% of his yards from Rich Gannon, 26% from Jeff Hostetler, and 12% from Jeff George).

Well, last year Reed was selected; it is time that Brown finally receive such honor.

My fourth choice is Will Shields. Here is what I wrote last year:

Will Shields made twelve Pro Bowls. Incredibly, this is Shields’ third year as a finalist. He made twelve Pro Bowls. I didn’t understand it when he wasn’t selected in 2012 or 2013, but I have to assume that there are no more roadblocks to induction. He made twelve Pro Bowls, three more than any player eligible but not yet in Canton.

My only comment: Incredibly, this is now Shields’ fourth year as a finalist.

My fifth spot is a tough one. It would come down to Kurt Warner, Orlando Pace, Terrell Davis, Kevin Greene, and Tony Dungy. Let me first tick through the other six Modern-Era candidates, who would be the first to hit my cutting room floor.

John Lynch: As I wrote last year, Lynch was a nine-time Pro Bowl selection, but four of those came in Denver, and at least the last two were reputation picks. He was a first-team All-Pro choice in only two years, and is not remembered as a historically great safety. He certainly wasn’t Troy Polamalu or Ed Reed, and I don’t think he did enough to elevate him from the large tier of safeties from his era such as Brian Dawkins, Carnell Lake, Steve Atwater, LeRoy Butler, Rodney Harrison, and Darren Sharper. Lynch was a great player — not being Hall of Fame-worthy is hardly a knock — but in my view, his play wasn’t historically great; given that, he wasn’t even great enough for a long enough period of time.

Charles Haley: Yes, Haley comes with his own theme song. But Haley was not as good of a pass-rusher as Greene — in fact, he ranked only 31st on my list of the best pass rushers since 1982. Unless you want to make the argument that Haley was also dominant in run defense and in coverage, you wind up falling back on the championships. The perfect response to that is Fuzzy Thurston, who has six #RINGZ and is not in the Hall. He was a great player, but when the main argument in your corner is a team accomplishment, it’s a good sign that your individual accomplishments do not stand on their own.

Jerome Bettis: I again refer you to the comments section to this Neil Paine post (well, you should read the post, too). We also had a good discussion in the comments to my article last year on whether Bettis being an outlier in terms of size made him a more deserving candidate. Six years ago, I ranked Bettis 29th on my list of the most dominant running backs ever. ^[1]Of note: my method excluded yards per carry from the conversation, which is the most common anti-Bettis argument.  Dominance isn’t everything, of course, and Bettis has a better case than some of the running backs ahead of him on that list. But I’d still prefer seeing Terrell Davis ahead of him, and I think players like Priest Holmes, Tiki Barber, Shaun Alexander, and Brian Westbrook (among others) were arguably better in their primes and will be unlikely to ever sniff the Hall.

Bettis wasn’t much of a receiver, he wasn’t explosive, and he didn’t even score as often as you’d think. Bettis is viewed in the best light — by far — by looking only at rushing yards. But even then, he ranked in the top 8 in rushing yards in just three different seasons.

Morten Andersen: I need just eight words: He was not as good as Nick Lowery.

Don Coryell: Five years ago, I wrote a lengthy piece on Coryell’s candidacy. Not much has changed in the interim, so I’ll just re-recommend that piece. Actually, one thing has changed: I came up with the Coryell Index, a rating system that Coryell dominated (man, he really should have seen that one coming!) Of course, dominating the Coryell Index is not necessarily a good thing. That said, no self-respecting football fan can be anti-Coryell; of the six names that I quickly dismissed, Coryell is the one that wouldn’t bother me at all if he was selected.

Jimmy Johnson: Like Coryell, Johnson is another non-traditional coaching candidate, albeit one in a very different vein. Johnson won just 80 games; combined with a less-than-exemplary .556 winning percentage, well, on paper, Johnson’s a poor candidate. Of course, he’s also the man responsible for assembling perhaps the greatest collection of talent on any team in modern history. He literally built the Cowboys from scratch, and his work as coach and de facto GM from 1989 to 1993 rivals any five-year stretch by a man occupying those roles. But Johnson’s entire resume is essentially the Dallas Cowboys from 1992 to 1993: that simply isn’t enough, at least in this crowded field, to make me choose Johnson.

As for the remaining five…

Orlando Pace is the safe pick. He was a consensus All-Pro in 1999 and 2001, with the AP, Pro Football Weekly, Pro Football Writers, and the Sporting News all selecting him. The Sporting News chose him in 2000, too, the year the AP made him a second-team choice. Pace missed six games in ’02, but he was a first-team choice by the AP and the Sporting News in ’03, and a first-team choice by the Sporting News in ’04.

Anecdotally, I don’t think he can quite match Walter Jones in either peak play or longevity. The bar is much lower than “being Walter Jones” for induction, but I’m not sure how much lower it is for first-ballot selection in a tough field. Pace is an obvious Hall of Famer, but I’m not bothered if he has to wait a year. Again, it’s subjective and anecdotal, but I think he was probably not as good as either Jones or Jonathan Ogden (although he may have been the best pass-blocker of the bunch; again, we’re splitting hairs).

I looked at all offensive tackles that entered and exited the NFL during the 40-year period from 1970 to 2009.  I gave each player 3 points for each first-team All-Pro nod (regardless of whether it was from the Associated Press or other organization), 2 points for each second-team selection (although if a player had both a 1st- and a 2nd-team selection in a given year, they were limited to 3 points), and 1 point for making the Pro Bowl (regardless of whether they received any All-Pro consideration, which means a player could get up to 4 points in each year).  As you can see, the Hall of Fame has not deviated much for offensive tackles than from this rudimentary formula:

Pace has a strong case, and certainly is a worthy selection. But I am okay with him waiting another year.

Kurt Warner may actually be the true owner of the title often bestowed upon Joe Namath. I love Warner — what’s not to love about his story? — but among a certain segment of the population, I’m not sure if there is a more overrated quarterback.

It is at this time that I feel contractually obligated to remind you that if someone suggests a player is overrated, and you think “that’s crazy, everyone knows he was awesome”, then there’s a good chance you have forgotten what overrated means.

Warner’s statistics are extremely misleading: after putting them in proper context, they are very similar to Terry Bradshaw’s. ^[3]Which, given Bradshaw’s Hall of Fame status, is not nearly the slight that some will perceive it as. Warner’s numbers were inflated by his era, by playing in a dome, by playing soft schedules, by playing with four Hall of Fame caliber teammates on offense alone, and by playing in the top offensive system of his era. Now, let’s be honest: Warner’s raw numbers are incredible. So we can take several layers off the top and his candidacy would still shine through.

Given his excellent play in the postseason, I lean towards voting ‘yes’ on Warner. But it’s not a slam dunk, and he need not be a first-ballot selection. He almost certainly will be a first-ballot selection, however, and there are much more important reasons to get frustrated in the world than to be bothered by this fact.

Tony Dungy: As I wrote last year, it’s hard to compare coaches to players. That said, let’s talk about Dungy the coach. Personally, I am more impressed by his ability to continue to string together 12-win seasons than I am by anything else about his resume: because of that fact, he ranked 3rd among all coaches over the last 80 years in the Dungy Index. He did have playoff struggles, as he ranked slightly below average in the Schottenheimer Index.

I wrote last year that Dungy hadn’t separated himself enough from coaches like Cowher or Holmgren (or, down the line, Shanahan or Coughlin) to be a first-ballot choice. Well, he’s on his second ballot now. In the interim, he’s managed to say some things he wishes he hadn’t, but hey, Warren Sapp is in the Hall of Fame. Dungy’s place in history as the first African American coach to win a Super Bowl will persuade some, and I’m not against that argument. Frankly, Dungy is similar to Warner in my book: I’m okay if they get in, I think a certain group of folks overrate them, but they are worthy Hall of Famers. If you’re rejecting people like Dungy and Warner, you’re really performing an exercise in pickin’ nits.

Kevin Greene: The most one-dimensional player on this list, but man was he good at that one dimension. As the NFL becomes more of a passing league, how much longer can folks ignore Greene’s monster sack total? He was the third best pass rusher of the last 30 years when I examined that issue in 2012, and that alone is enough to warrant induction at some point. Is this the time?

I haven’t sensed that there is much momentum in his candidacy, though he is now a finalist four years running. Would he be my fifth choice? It comes down to Greene and Davis for me. I want to ping Greene for being one-dimensional (although see this Jason Lisk article discussing Greene’s one season as a 4-3 outside linebacker), but he had 10 double-digit sack seasons (third behind Reggie White and Bruce Smith), 8 seasons with 12+ sacks (tied for second with Smith behind White), 5 seasons with 14+ sacks (tied for second with Smith behind White), and 2 seasons with 16+ sacks (tied for second with nine other players behind White). Sacks are not everything, but to the extent sacks are anything, well, Kevin Greene gets anything.

As for Davis? Five years ago, I wrote about Davis’ candidacy. It’s worth a read if you have the time: given the topic, it’s held up well, and I think I did a nice job analyzing the pros and cons of his case. Putting him against Greene makes the comparison even more fascinating: one of Green’s biggest strengths was his longevity; does that give him the edge over Davis?

For me, it’s very, very close. Probably too close to call. I’d certainly pick Seau, Harrison, Brown, and Shields, and be content to see either Greene or Davis go in. I don’t have much to say about Wolf or Polian.  As for Tingelhoff, you can read the pro-Tingelhoff argument I wrote when he was announced as the Seniors’ candidate. But really, I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments.