2015 March

The 2014 Class of Rookie Wide Receivers

by Chase Stuart on March 31, 2015

In December, I provided a quick look at rookie receiving production, and noted that an unusually large amount of receiving yards had come from first-year players. In that study, I lumped all rookies together, but today, the focus will be on only wide receivers.

And the 2014 season was an incredible one for rookie wide receivers. Odell Beckham was unsurprisingly named the Offensive Rookie of the Year by the AP, with a rookie-high 1,305 receiving yards. Tampa Bay’s Mike Evans and Carolina’s Kelvin Benjamin each topped 1,000 yards, while Sammy Watkins (982), Jordan Matthews (872), and Jarvis Landry (758) all had seasons that would stand out as special in many other years.

The depth of the class was impressive, too: John Brown (696), Allen Hurns (677), Taylor Gabriel (621), Brandin Cooks (550), Martavis Bryant (549), Allen Robinson (548) all topped 500 yards, while Davante Adams, Donte Moncrief and Marqise Lee all hit the 400-yard mark.

Collectively, rookie wide receivers recorded 12,611 receiving yards last year, the most of any class year in the NFL in 2014. The graph below shows the number of receiving yards from wide receivers from each class (i.e., 1st year, 2nd year, 3rd year, etc.) in the NFL in 2014: [continue reading…]

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Free Agency, and the Most Improved Teams

by Chase Stuart on March 30, 2015

in History

There are a lot of articles out there that suggests free agency is over-rated (as usual, Neil Paine has one of the better ones). But today I want to look at the question from a different perspective: instead of looking at how teams who are active in free agency have fared, what is we look at what free agent veterans were added by the teams that improved the most?

Last Wednesday, I looked at regression to the mean and team wins. I looked at the team that improved the most in each of the last 10 years, and then examined which free agents they added in that off-season. The results:

2014 Cowboys (12 Actual Wins; 8.0 Expected Wins, +4.0): DE Jeremy Mincey (Denver/Jacksonville), LB Rolando McClain (Baltimore), and DT Henry Melton (Chicago) were the only veteran additions of note. [continue reading…]

Tagged as: Free Agency

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Average Points Differential Per Game in Games Started By Each Quarterback

by Chase Stuart on March 29, 2015

in Data Dump, Quarterbacks

I previously looked at points per game by each quarterback in his starts and points per game allowed by each quarterback in his starts. Please check there for the fine print.

Today, we put it all together, for a list of points differential per game in games started by each quarterback.

Rk	Quarterback	G	PF	PA	PD	W	L	T	Win %	WinOv.500	Last Yr
1	Otto Graham	83	26.78	14.42	12.36	66	16	1	0.801	50	1955
2	Russell Wilson	56	25.84	15.73	10.11	42	14	0	0.75	28	2014
3	Tom Brady	236	27.86	18.86	9	181	55	0	0.767	126	2014
4	Daryle Lamonica	97	26.62	17.89	8.73	70	21	6	0.753	49	1973
5	Roger Staubach	131	23.82	15.31	8.52	96	35	0	0.733	61	1979
6	Aaron Rodgers	114	28.5	20.98	7.52	76	38	0	0.667	38	2014
7	Joe Montana	187	24.63	17.35	7.27	133	54	0	0.711	79	1994
8	Terry Bradshaw	177	22.85	15.68	7.17	121	56	0	0.684	65	1983
9	Steve Young	157	25.76	18.84	6.92	102	55	0	0.65	47	1999
10	Bart Starr	167	22.99	16.68	6.31	103	58	6	0.635	45	1971
10	Bob Waterfield	25	27.92	21.84	6.08	15	10	0	0.6	5	1952
11	Johnny Unitas	194	24.36	18.53	5.83	124	66	4	0.649	58	1973
12	Len Dawson	167	23.51	17.8	5.72	99	60	8	0.617	39	1975
13	Don Meredith	89	26.61	21.04	5.56	49	36	4	0.573	13	1968
13	Don Strock	23	24.52	19	5.52	16	7	0	0.696	9	1988
14	Danny White	102	25.23	19.73	5.5	67	35	0	0.657	32	1987
15	Peyton Manning	280	26.92	21.53	5.39	190	90	0	0.679	100	2014
16	Joe Flacco	127	23.68	18.34	5.34	82	45	0	0.646	37	2014
17	Ben Roethlisberger	173	23.61	18.4	5.21	116	57	0	0.671	59	2014
18	Jim McMahon	103	20.75	15.59	5.16	70	33	0	0.68	37	1994
19	Mark Rypien	85	23.38	18.48	4.89	52	33	0	0.612	19	1995
20	Philip Rivers	153	25.63	20.76	4.86	92	61	0	0.601	31	2014
21	Frank Ryan	90	24.84	20.18	4.67	58	29	3	0.661	29	1968
22	Donovan McNabb	177	22.92	18.28	4.64	107	69	1	0.607	38	2011
23	Rich Gannon	138	24.2	19.57	4.63	79	59	0	0.572	20	2004
24	Charlie Conerly	92	21.78	17.32	4.47	58	33	1	0.636	25	1961
25	Norm Van Brocklin	105	26.74	22.29	4.46	63	38	4	0.619	25	1960
26	Bob Griese	162	21.15	16.77	4.38	98	61	3	0.614	37	1980
27	Brett Favre	322	24.07	19.75	4.32	199	123	0	0.618	76	2010
28	Pat Haden	60	20.27	16.05	4.22	37	22	1	0.625	15	1981
29	Kurt Warner	128	26.66	22.46	4.2	75	53	0	0.586	22	2009
30	Ken Stabler	158	22.51	18.42	4.09	103	54	1	0.655	49	1983
31	Jack Kemp	111	23.3	19.21	4.09	67	41	3	0.617	26	1969
32	Jim Kelly	177	23.2	19.18	4.03	110	67	0	0.621	43	1996
32	Don Heinrich	37	20.73	16.7	4.03	22	13	2	0.622	9	1962
33	Troy Aikman	180	21.94	18.01	3.94	105	75	0	0.583	30	2000
34	Earl Morrall	107	20.97	17.04	3.93	67	37	3	0.64	30	1975
35	Drew Brees	212	26.66	22.76	3.9	123	89	0	0.58	34	2014
35	James Harris	44	19.07	15.2	3.86	26	18	0	0.591	8	1978
36	John Elway	252	23.27	19.43	3.84	162	89	1	0.645	73	1998
36	Rudy Bukich	38	23	19.21	3.79	21	14	3	0.592	7	1966
36	Dieter Brock	17	20.06	16.29	3.76	12	5	0	0.706	7	1985
37	David Woodley	58	21.67	17.93	3.74	37	20	1	0.647	17	1985
37	Colin Kaepernick	45	23.62	20	3.62	29	16	0	0.644	13	2014
37	Steve Bono	43	20.81	17.21	3.6	28	15	0	0.651	13	1998
38	Joe Theismann	132	21.96	18.37	3.59	83	49	0	0.629	34	1985
39	Elvis Grbac	73	22.41	18.88	3.53	41	32	0	0.562	9	2001
40	Randall Cunningham	144	23.06	19.56	3.5	85	58	1	0.594	27	2001
41	Bobby Layne	139	23.73	20.24	3.48	83	52	4	0.612	31	1962
42	Jay Fiedler	63	20.73	17.32	3.41	38	25	0	0.603	13	2004
42	Nick Foles	25	27	23.68	3.32	15	10	0	0.6	5	2014
43	Milt Plum	104	21.7	18.52	3.18	56	42	6	0.567	14	1967
44	Tony Romo	129	25.28	22.1	3.18	77	52	0	0.597	25	2014
45	Roman Gabriel	159	21.3	18.38	2.91	86	66	7	0.563	20	1976
46	Brad Johnson	125	21.38	18.5	2.88	72	53	0	0.576	19	2008
46	Pat Ryan	21	23.81	20.95	2.86	12	9	0	0.571	3	1989
46	Johnny Lujack	20	22.55	19.7	2.85	13	7	0	0.65	6	1951
47	Andy Dalton	68	23.13	20.51	2.62	40	27	1	0.596	13	2014
47	Tarvaris Jackson	35	22.29	19.69	2.6	17	18	0	0.486	-1	2011
48	Phil Simms	169	20.3	17.73	2.57	101	68	0	0.598	33	1993
49	Steve Grogan	138	22.38	19.86	2.52	75	63	0	0.543	12	1990
49	Bobby Thomason	42	20.36	18.05	2.31	19	22	1	0.464	-3	1957
50	Dan Marino	258	23.04	20.75	2.29	155	103	0	0.601	52	1999
51	Doug Flutie	68	20.74	18.5	2.24	38	30	0	0.559	8	2004
52	Brian Griese	83	22.04	19.86	2.18	45	38	0	0.542	7	2008
53	Y.A. Tittle	139	24.39	22.21	2.18	78	56	5	0.579	22	1964
54	Matt Ryan	115	24.3	22.13	2.17	67	48	0	0.583	19	2014
55	George Blanda	107	25.23	23.1	2.13	55	51	1	0.519	4	1968
56	Kordell Stewart	86	20.17	18.05	2.13	50	36	0	0.581	14	2003
56	Bob Lee	32	17.97	15.84	2.13	20	12	0	0.625	8	1977
57	Mike Tomczak	78	20.72	18.67	2.05	45	33	0	0.577	12	1999
58	Steve McNair	163	21.72	19.69	2.03	96	67	0	0.589	29	2007
59	Ken Anderson	178	21.31	19.29	2.03	93	85	0	0.522	8	1985
59	Shaun King	27	19.52	17.52	2	15	12	0	0.556	3	2004
59	Virgil Carter	31	20.35	18.35	2	16	15	0	0.516	1	1975
60	Jake Delhomme	104	21.73	19.78	1.95	61	43	0	0.587	18	2010
61	Craig Morton	154	19.14	17.25	1.89	86	67	1	0.562	19	1982
61	Tommy O'Connell	21	20	18.19	1.81	11	8	2	0.571	3	1961
61	Jeff Kemp	30	20.9	19.1	1.8	16	13	1	0.55	3	1991
62	Jeff Hostetler	88	21.06	19.31	1.75	55	33	0	0.625	22	1997
63	Ron Jaworski	151	19.06	17.32	1.74	77	73	1	0.513	4	1989
64	Dave Krieg	184	21.34	19.73	1.6	101	83	0	0.549	18	1996
65	Bobby Hebert	103	21.26	19.68	1.58	56	47	0	0.544	9	1996
66	Rex Grossman	51	21.9	20.33	1.57	27	24	0	0.529	3	2011
66	Shaun Hill	34	22.06	20.5	1.56	16	18	0	0.471	-2	2014
67	Joe Kapp	52	19.15	17.6	1.56	26	23	3	0.529	3	1970
68	Mark Brunell	161	21.61	20.08	1.53	83	78	0	0.516	5	2009
69	Trent Green	115	25.07	23.58	1.49	56	59	0	0.487	-3	2008
70	John Hadl	169	21.96	20.53	1.43	82	78	9	0.512	4	1977
71	Mark Sanchez	76	22.26	20.92	1.34	41	35	0	0.539	6	2014
72	Jay Schroeder	104	20.16	18.87	1.3	64	40	0	0.615	24	1994
73	Alex Smith	108	21.21	19.94	1.28	58	49	1	0.542	9	2014
74	Andrew Luck	54	24.8	23.54	1.26	36	18	0	0.667	18	2014
75	Stan Humphries	87	21.62	20.4	1.22	53	34	0	0.609	19	1997
76	Drew Bledsoe	199	20.74	19.54	1.2	101	98	0	0.508	3	2006
76	Brian Hoyer	17	22	20.82	1.18	10	7	0	0.588	3	2014
76	Matt Cavanaugh	19	20.79	19.63	1.16	8	11	0	0.421	-3	1986
77	Eli Manning	178	23.62	22.48	1.15	99	79	0	0.556	20	2014
77	Jim Miller	28	20.14	19	1.14	15	13	0	0.536	2	2002
78	Chad Pennington	87	20.64	19.53	1.11	46	41	0	0.529	5	2010
79	Vince Young	51	21.59	20.49	1.1	31	20	0	0.608	11	2011
79	Gary Cuozzo	41	18.85	17.76	1.1	21	20	0	0.512	1	1972
79	Matt Moore	23	18.65	17.74	0.91	11	12	0	0.478	-1	2011
79	Jim Ninowski	31	20.03	19.19	0.84	15	15	1	0.5	0	1968
80	Ed Brown	99	21.97	21.19	0.78	55	39	5	0.581	16	1964
81	Neil O'Donnell	107	19.87	19.12	0.75	58	49	0	0.542	9	2003
82	Dan Fouts	178	23.77	23.03	0.74	89	88	1	0.503	1	1987
83	Gary Danielson	61	20.48	19.75	0.72	28	32	1	0.467	-4	1988
84	Billy Kilmer	121	20.17	19.48	0.69	63	57	1	0.525	6	1978
85	Kyle Orton	82	20.73	20.06	0.67	42	40	0	0.512	2	2014
86	Cam Newton	65	22.82	22.25	0.57	31	33	1	0.485	-2	2014
87	David Garrard	78	21.65	21.09	0.56	40	38	0	0.513	2	2010
88	Bill Nelsen	79	22.81	22.27	0.54	42	34	3	0.551	8	1972
89	Wade Wilson	74	21.55	21.01	0.54	38	36	0	0.514	2	1998
89	John Roach	19	22.05	21.53	0.53	7	11	1	0.395	-4	1964
90	Michael Vick	115	22.23	21.76	0.47	61	53	1	0.535	8	2014
91	Fran Tarkenton	250	21.4	20.94	0.46	130	114	6	0.532	16	1978
92	Warren Moon	213	21.9	21.45	0.46	105	108	0	0.493	-3	2000
93	Billy Wade	86	22.47	22.05	0.42	41	43	2	0.488	-2	1965
94	Bernie Kosar	115	20.84	20.43	0.42	56	58	1	0.491	-2	1995
95	Eric Hipple	58	20.05	19.64	0.41	28	30	0	0.483	-2	1989
96	Matt Schaub	92	23.65	23.24	0.41	47	45	0	0.511	2	2013
97	Jeff Garcia	122	22.55	22.16	0.39	60	62	0	0.492	-2	2008
98	Trent Dilfer	119	17.82	17.52	0.3	63	56	0	0.529	7	2007
99	Bill Kenney	77	21.75	21.49	0.26	34	43	0	0.442	-9	1988
99	Scott Hunter	43	16.81	16.65	0.16	21	19	3	0.523	2	1977
100	Steve Beuerlein	104	20.25	20.1	0.15	48	56	0	0.462	-8	2003
101	Vince Ferragamo	59	21.58	21.46	0.12	30	29	0	0.508	1	1985
102	Charley Johnson	124	22.23	22.19	0.04	59	57	8	0.508	2	1975
103	Jim Plunkett	154	20.41	20.41	0	80	74	0	0.519	6	1986
103	Cody Carlson	20	19.7	19.7	0	11	9	0	0.55	2	1994
104	Mark Malone	55	20.11	20.13	-0.02	24	31	0	0.436	-7	1988
105	Charlie Batch	55	20.69	20.71	-0.02	25	30	0	0.455	-5	2012
106	Matt Hasselbeck	163	22.17	22.2	-0.02	85	78	0	0.521	7	2012
106	Steve Ramsey	31	19.39	19.52	-0.13	14	17	0	0.452	-3	1976
107	Greg Landry	99	18.91	19.18	-0.27	44	52	3	0.46	-8	1984
108	Bubby Brister	77	19.35	19.66	-0.31	38	39	0	0.494	-1	1998
109	Bill Munson	66	18.68	19.05	-0.36	27	34	5	0.447	-7	1975
110	Boomer Esiason	178	21.87	22.25	-0.38	83	95	0	0.466	-12	1997
111	Babe Parilli	104	22.19	22.59	-0.39	50	47	7	0.514	3	1967
111	Matt Robinson	20	22.4	22.8	-0.4	10	10	0	0.5	0	1980
112	Gus Frerotte	95	21.37	21.8	-0.43	45	49	1	0.479	-4	2008
113	Steve Bartkowski	131	20.38	20.82	-0.44	60	71	0	0.458	-11	1986
114	Jim Hart	182	21.04	21.49	-0.45	87	90	5	0.492	-3	1983
115	Scott Mitchell	73	22.41	22.89	-0.48	32	41	0	0.438	-9	2000
115	Anthony Wright	20	17.65	18.15	-0.5	8	12	0	0.4	-4	2005
116	Mike Livingston	75	19.45	20.01	-0.56	31	43	1	0.42	-12	1979
116	Frankie Albert	32	19.09	19.72	-0.63	14	17	1	0.453	-3	1952
117	Tony Banks	78	19.18	19.83	-0.65	35	43	0	0.449	-8	2003
117	Tommy Maddox	38	21.29	21.95	-0.66	16	21	1	0.434	-5	2005
117	Ryan Tannehill	48	20.69	21.35	-0.67	23	25	0	0.479	-2	2014
118	Joe Namath	132	22.42	23.1	-0.67	64	64	4	0.5	0	1977
119	Matthew Stafford	79	23.63	24.33	-0.7	35	44	0	0.443	-9	2014
119	Steve Fuller	44	17.41	18.14	-0.73	20	24	0	0.455	-4	1986
120	Tommy Kramer	114	20.55	21.32	-0.77	56	58	0	0.491	-2	1989
121	Carson Palmer	145	22.01	22.83	-0.82	70	75	0	0.483	-5	2014
122	Tony Eason	56	20.79	21.61	-0.82	31	25	0	0.554	6	1989
123	Marc Wilson	61	20.39	21.25	-0.85	32	29	0	0.525	3	1990
124	Don Majkowski	57	19.44	20.33	-0.89	26	30	1	0.465	-4	1996
124	Todd Blackledge	30	19.87	20.77	-0.9	15	15	0	0.5	0	1989
125	John Brodie	164	21.63	22.55	-0.91	76	80	8	0.488	-4	1973
126	Doug Williams	88	17.77	18.73	-0.95	42	45	1	0.483	-3	1989
127	Jim Harbaugh	145	18.68	19.68	-1	68	77	0	0.469	-9	2000
127	Pete Beathard	37	18.05	19.08	-1.03	18	18	1	0.5	0	1972
128	Sonny Jurgensen	149	21.54	22.61	-1.07	69	73	7	0.487	-4	1974
129	Mike Phipps	73	17.82	19.04	-1.22	38	33	2	0.534	5	1980
130	Brian Sipe	113	19.89	21.15	-1.26	57	56	0	0.504	1	1983
131	Ken O'Brien	112	20.19	21.46	-1.27	50	61	1	0.451	-11	1993
131	Quincy Carter	35	15.71	17	-1.29	18	17	0	0.514	1	2004
131	George Ratterman	20	25.25	26.55	-1.3	9	10	1	0.475	-1	1956
131	A.J. Feeley	18	18.89	20.22	-1.33	8	10	0	0.444	-2	2011
132	Bert Jones	99	21.56	22.91	-1.35	47	52	0	0.475	-5	1982
133	Jay Cutler	121	22.74	24.1	-1.36	62	59	0	0.512	3	2014
134	Rodney Peete	89	19.48	20.85	-1.37	46	43	0	0.517	3	2003
134	Kellen Clemens	21	18.76	20.19	-1.43	8	13	0	0.381	-5	2013
135	Kerry Collins	187	19.63	21.12	-1.49	84	103	0	0.449	-19	2011
135	Scott Brunner	32	17.56	19.06	-1.5	13	19	0	0.406	-6	1983
135	Steve Walsh	41	17	18.54	-1.54	21	20	0	0.512	1	1996
136	Joe Ferguson	175	18.78	20.33	-1.54	80	95	0	0.457	-15	1989
137	Byron Leftwich	51	17.31	18.9	-1.59	24	27	0	0.471	-3	2012
138	Richard Todd	112	20.1	21.69	-1.59	50	61	1	0.451	-11	1984
138	Damon Huard	27	17.22	18.81	-1.59	15	12	0	0.556	3	2008
138	Danny Kanell	25	18.12	19.72	-1.6	10	14	1	0.42	-4	2003
138	Matt Leinart	18	21.17	22.78	-1.61	8	10	0	0.444	-2	2011
138	Kyle Boller	47	19.02	20.64	-1.62	20	27	0	0.426	-7	2011
138	Kent Graham	38	16.92	18.61	-1.68	17	21	0	0.447	-4	2000
138	Kevin Kolb	21	20.9	22.71	-1.81	9	12	0	0.429	-3	2012
139	Jim Everett	158	20.19	22.01	-1.82	66	92	0	0.418	-26	1997
139	George Shaw	29	20.59	22.41	-1.83	11	16	2	0.414	-5	1962
140	Chris Chandler	155	19.72	21.68	-1.97	69	86	0	0.445	-17	2004
141	Bob Avellini	51	17	18.98	-1.98	23	28	0	0.451	-5	1984
142	Tobin Rote	119	22.87	24.87	-1.99	51	64	4	0.445	-13	1964
142	Vince Evans	39	18.1	20.18	-2.08	14	25	0	0.359	-11	1995
143	Jason Campbell	79	19.66	21.77	-2.11	32	47	0	0.405	-15	2013
144	Vinny Testaverde	219	19.5	21.62	-2.11	92	126	1	0.422	-34	2007
145	Bob Berry	52	17.04	19.17	-2.13	20	29	3	0.413	-9	1974
145	Sammy Baugh	22	19.05	21.23	-2.18	11	11	0	0.5	0	1952
146	Jake Plummer	142	19.74	21.94	-2.2	71	71	0	0.5	0	2006
146	Gary Hogeboom	37	19.38	21.59	-2.22	18	19	0	0.486	-1	1989
147	Tom Flores	67	22.28	24.63	-2.34	31	32	4	0.493	-1	1968
147	Jack Concannon	45	16.82	19.18	-2.36	20	24	1	0.456	-4	1974
147	Todd Collins	22	17.55	19.91	-2.36	11	11	0	0.5	0	2010
148	Lynn Dickey	113	19.7	22.1	-2.4	46	64	3	0.42	-18	1985
148	John Friesz	38	18.76	21.18	-2.42	13	25	0	0.342	-12	1998
149	Neil Lomax	102	20.69	23.12	-2.43	47	53	2	0.471	-6	1988
149	Johnny Green	19	22.21	24.68	-2.47	8	11	0	0.421	-3	1962
150	Matt Cassel	72	20.82	23.33	-2.51	33	39	0	0.458	-6	2014
150	Heath Shuler	22	17.73	20.27	-2.55	8	14	0	0.364	-6	1997
151	Cotton Davidson	54	20.35	22.94	-2.59	20	33	1	0.38	-13	1966
151	Adrian Burk	41	20.1	22.83	-2.73	15	23	3	0.402	-8	1956
151	Patrick Ramsey	24	18.46	21.21	-2.75	10	14	0	0.417	-4	2005
151	Trent Edwards	33	18.42	21.21	-2.79	14	19	0	0.424	-5	2010
152	Dan Pastorini	122	18.27	21.07	-2.8	59	63	0	0.484	-4	1981
153	Erik Kramer	70	19.69	22.61	-2.93	32	38	0	0.457	-6	1999
153	Dave Wilson	31	16.84	19.77	-2.94	12	19	0	0.387	-7	1986
154	Steve DeBerg	144	19.6	22.53	-2.94	54	89	1	0.378	-35	1998
154	Kelly Holcomb	25	20.8	23.76	-2.96	8	17	0	0.32	-9	2007
154	David Whitehurst	37	14.89	17.95	-3.05	16	20	1	0.446	-4	1981
154	Cliff Stoudt	21	20.1	23.29	-3.19	9	12	0	0.429	-3	1988
154	Seneca Wallace	22	17.41	20.77	-3.36	6	16	0	0.273	-10	2013
154	Joe Reed	19	15	18.37	-3.37	9	10	0	0.474	-1	1979
154	Rob Johnson	30	19.27	22.7	-3.43	12	18	0	0.4	-6	2002
154	Jim Finks	45	19.58	23.04	-3.47	18	27	0	0.4	-9	1955
155	Jon Kitna	125	20.89	24.46	-3.57	50	75	0	0.4	-25	2010
155	Mike Boryla	19	15.53	19.11	-3.58	8	11	0	0.421	-3	1978
155	Christian Ponder	36	23.5	27.08	-3.58	14	21	1	0.403	-7	2014
156	Dave Brown	60	16.72	20.3	-3.58	26	34	0	0.433	-8	2000
156	Frank Reich	22	20.14	23.73	-3.59	7	15	0	0.318	-8	1998
156	Dick Wood	34	20.32	23.97	-3.65	13	19	2	0.412	-6	1966
156	Pete Liske	29	17.34	21	-3.66	13	15	1	0.466	-2	1972
157	Daunte Culpepper	104	21.48	25.15	-3.67	43	61	0	0.413	-18	2009
157	Paul McDonald	22	16.23	19.91	-3.68	8	14	0	0.364	-6	1984
158	Aaron Brooks	92	20.53	24.23	-3.7	39	53	0	0.424	-14	2006
158	Robert Griffin	36	23	26.83	-3.83	14	22	0	0.389	-8	2014
158	Butch Songin	20	23.35	27.2	-3.85	8	11	1	0.425	-3	1962
158	Steve Pelluer	30	17.63	21.53	-3.9	9	20	1	0.317	-11	1989
159	Chris Miller	94	19.41	23.34	-3.93	35	59	0	0.372	-24	1999
159	Josh McCown	49	18.98	22.98	-4	17	32	0	0.347	-15	2014
159	Zeke Bratkowski	47	18.53	22.6	-4.06	16	30	1	0.351	-14	1971
160	Ryan Fitzpatrick	89	20	24.1	-4.1	33	55	1	0.376	-22	2014
161	Jim Zorn	106	20	24.12	-4.12	44	62	0	0.415	-18	1987
161	Charlie Trippi	16	14.31	18.44	-4.13	5	11	0	0.313	-6	1952
161	Mike Taliaferro	31	18.1	22.23	-4.13	11	20	0	0.355	-9	1970
161	Al Woodall	19	13.79	17.95	-4.16	5	14	0	0.263	-9	1973
161	Shane Matthews	22	16.68	20.86	-4.18	11	11	0	0.5	0	2002
161	Jake Locker	23	20.91	25.13	-4.22	9	14	0	0.391	-5	2014
161	Derek Anderson	45	18.51	22.73	-4.22	20	25	0	0.444	-5	2014
162	Rick Mirer	68	17.74	21.99	-4.25	24	44	0	0.353	-20	2003
162	Marty Domres	32	16.44	20.72	-4.28	12	20	0	0.375	-8	1977
163	Josh Freeman	60	19.78	24.08	-4.3	24	36	0	0.4	-12	2013
164	Norm Snead	158	19.59	23.95	-4.35	52	99	7	0.351	-47	1976
165	Marc Bulger	98	21.08	25.59	-4.51	42	56	0	0.429	-14	2009
166	Jack Trudeau	50	15.44	20	-4.56	19	31	0	0.38	-12	1994
167	Joey Harrington	76	17.24	21.95	-4.71	26	50	0	0.342	-24	2007
167	Craig Erickson	35	17.6	22.34	-4.74	14	21	0	0.4	-7	1996
167	Billy Joe Tolliver	47	18.19	22.94	-4.74	15	32	0	0.319	-17	1999
168	Bobby Douglass	53	17.19	21.96	-4.77	16	36	1	0.311	-20	1977
169	Jeff Blake	100	20	24.82	-4.82	39	61	0	0.39	-22	2003
169	Don Trull	18	23.83	28.72	-4.89	4	12	2	0.278	-8	1969
169	Steve Spurrier	38	16.92	21.84	-4.92	13	24	1	0.355	-11	1976
169	Karl Sweetan	19	16.84	21.79	-4.95	6	10	3	0.395	-4	1968
169	Sam Bradford	49	17.53	22.55	-5.02	18	30	1	0.378	-12	2013
169	Ty Detmer	26	17.77	22.81	-5.04	11	15	0	0.423	-4	2001
170	Tim Couch	59	16.59	21.69	-5.1	22	37	0	0.373	-15	2003
170	Joe Pisarcik	30	14.8	20.17	-5.37	9	21	0	0.3	-12	1984
170	Steve Dils	27	17.7	23.11	-5.41	10	17	0	0.37	-7	1988
170	Hugh Millen	25	14.4	19.92	-5.52	7	18	0	0.28	-11	1994
170	Chris Simms	17	14.76	20.41	-5.65	7	10	0	0.412	-3	2009
170	David Archer	23	17.65	23.3	-5.65	9	13	1	0.413	-4	1987
170	Brandon Weeden	21	18.24	23.95	-5.71	5	16	0	0.238	-11	2014
171	Lamar McHan	73	17.82	23.73	-5.9	24	47	2	0.342	-23	1963
171	Tim Tebow	16	19.88	25.81	-5.94	9	7	0	0.563	2	2011
171	Jack Thompson	21	17.57	23.52	-5.95	4	17	0	0.19	-13	1984
171	Geno Smith	29	18.62	24.59	-5.97	11	18	0	0.379	-7	2014
172	Jeff George	127	17.57	23.6	-6.03	47	80	0	0.37	-33	2001
173	Eddie LeBaron	81	18.17	24.31	-6.14	26	52	3	0.34	-26	1963
173	Dick Shiner	29	18.79	24.93	-6.14	7	21	1	0.259	-14	1973
174	Mike Pagel	54	17.04	23.24	-6.2	17	36	1	0.324	-19	1990
174	Al Dorow	44	21.2	27.41	-6.2	19	25	0	0.432	-6	1962
174	Billy Joe Hobert	17	17.06	23.29	-6.24	4	13	0	0.235	-9	1999
174	Terry Hanratty	18	15.72	22.11	-6.39	6	12	0	0.333	-6	1976
174	Jacky Lee	23	16.7	23.09	-6.39	7	15	1	0.326	-8	1969
174	John Skelton	17	17.12	23.65	-6.53	8	9	0	0.471	-1	2012
174	Colt McCoy	25	15.52	22.28	-6.76	7	18	0	0.28	-11	2014
174	Tim Rattay	18	18.5	25.28	-6.78	5	13	0	0.278	-8	2006
175	Chad Henne	53	18.62	25.45	-6.83	18	35	0	0.34	-17	2014
175	Mike Glennon	18	19.94	26.78	-6.83	5	13	0	0.278	-8	2014
175	J.P. Losman	33	15.79	22.7	-6.91	10	23	0	0.303	-13	2008
175	King Hill	30	20.6	27.87	-7.27	7	22	1	0.25	-15	1968
175	Ralph Guglielmi	26	16.69	23.96	-7.27	7	16	3	0.327	-9	1963
176	David Carr	79	16.28	23.63	-7.35	23	56	0	0.291	-33	2007
177	Frank Tripucka	50	20.06	27.5	-7.44	17	32	1	0.35	-15	1963
177	Charlie Frye	23	14.61	22.22	-7.61	7	16	0	0.304	-9	2009
177	Steve Tensi	34	19.47	27.09	-7.62	10	23	1	0.309	-13	1970
177	Chuck Long	21	14.9	22.67	-7.76	4	17	0	0.19	-13	1988
177	Kelly Stouffer	16	12.06	20.06	-8	5	11	0	0.313	-6	1992
178	Archie Manning	139	15.91	24.21	-8.29	35	101	3	0.263	-66	1984
178	Ryan Leaf	21	15	23.43	-8.43	4	17	0	0.19	-13	2001
178	David Klingler	24	12.63	21.42	-8.79	4	20	0	0.167	-16	1994
178	Bruce Gradkowski	20	16.05	25.05	-9	6	14	0	0.3	-8	2010
178	Jeff Komlo	16	14.19	23.25	-9.06	2	14	0	0.125	-12	1981
178	Randy Wright	32	15.09	24.34	-9.25	7	25	0	0.219	-18	1988
178	Blaine Gabbert	27	15.3	24.85	-9.56	5	22	0	0.185	-17	2013
178	John Reaves	17	13.41	23.65	-10.24	4	13	0	0.235	-9	1987
178	JaMarcus Russell	25	14.48	24.72	-10.24	7	18	0	0.28	-11	2009
178	Chris Weinke	20	13.6	23.95	-10.35	2	18	0	0.1	-16	2007
178	Dennis Shaw	37	15.46	26.03	-10.57	8	27	2	0.243	-19	1972
178	Kent Nix	18	16.5	27.17	-10.67	4	14	0	0.222	-10	1972
178	Mickey Slaughter	19	21	31.74	-10.74	2	15	2	0.158	-13	1966
178	Brady Quinn	20	15	25.85	-10.85	4	16	0	0.2	-12	2012
178	Doug Pederson	17	10.59	22.35	-11.76	3	14	0	0.176	-11	2000
178	Timm Rosenbach	20	14.6	26.4	-11.8	5	15	0	0.25	-10	1992
178	Gary Huff	28	9.57	21.39	-11.82	7	21	0	0.25	-14	1977
178	Derek Carr	16	15.81	28.25	-12.44	3	13	0	0.188	-10	2014
178	Randy Johnson	49	15.55	28.45	-12.9	10	38	1	0.214	-28	1976
178	Akili Smith	17	10.76	24.76	-14	3	14	0	0.176	-11	2002

Again, I’m short on time, so I will leave the commentary to you guys.

{ 9 comments }

Average Points per Game Allowed in Games Started By Each Quarterback

by Chase Stuart on March 28, 2015

in Data Dump, Quarterbacks

Please see yesterday’s post for the fine print. The table below shows the average points per game allowed in games started by each quarterback, minimum 15 games (but the ranks only count for quarterbacks with 50 or more starts).

Rk	Quarterback	G	PA	W	L	T	Win %	WinOv.500	Last Yr
1	Otto Graham	83	14.42	66	16	1	0.801	50	1955
1	James Harris	44	15.2	26	18	0	0.591	8	1978
2	Roger Staubach	131	15.31	96	35	0	0.733	61	1979
3	Jim McMahon	103	15.59	70	33	0	0.68	37	1994
4	Terry Bradshaw	177	15.68	121	56	0	0.684	65	1983
5	Russell Wilson	56	15.73	42	14	0	0.75	28	2014
5	Bob Lee	32	15.84	20	12	0	0.625	8	1977
6	Pat Haden	60	16.05	37	22	1	0.625	15	1981
6	Dieter Brock	17	16.29	12	5	0	0.706	7	1985
6	Scott Hunter	43	16.65	21	19	3	0.523	2	1977
7	Bart Starr	167	16.68	103	58	6	0.635	45	1971
7	Don Heinrich	37	16.7	22	13	2	0.622	9	1962
8	Bob Griese	162	16.77	98	61	3	0.614	37	1980
8	Quincy Carter	35	17	18	17	0	0.514	1	2004
9	Earl Morrall	107	17.04	67	37	3	0.64	30	1975
9	Steve Bono	43	17.21	28	15	0	0.651	13	1998
10	Craig Morton	154	17.25	86	67	1	0.562	19	1982
11	Charlie Conerly	92	17.32	58	33	1	0.636	25	1961
12	Jay Fiedler	63	17.32	38	25	0	0.603	13	2004
13	Ron Jaworski	151	17.32	77	73	1	0.513	4	1989
14	Joe Montana	187	17.35	133	54	0	0.711	79	1994
14	Shaun King	27	17.52	15	12	0	0.556	3	2004
15	Trent Dilfer	119	17.52	63	56	0	0.529	7	2007
16	Joe Kapp	52	17.6	26	23	3	0.529	3	1970
17	Phil Simms	169	17.73	101	68	0	0.598	33	1993
17	Matt Moore	23	17.74	11	12	0	0.478	-1	2011
17	Gary Cuozzo	41	17.76	21	20	0	0.512	1	1972
18	Len Dawson	167	17.8	99	60	8	0.617	39	1975
19	Daryle Lamonica	97	17.89	70	21	6	0.753	49	1973
20	David Woodley	58	17.93	37	20	1	0.647	17	1985
20	David Whitehurst	37	17.95	16	20	1	0.446	-4	1981
20	Al Woodall	19	17.95	5	14	0	0.263	-9	1973
21	Troy Aikman	180	18.01	105	75	0	0.583	30	2000
22	Kordell Stewart	86	18.05	50	36	0	0.581	14	2003
22	Bobby Thomason	42	18.05	19	22	1	0.464	-3	1957
22	Steve Fuller	44	18.14	20	24	0	0.455	-4	1986
22	Anthony Wright	20	18.15	8	12	0	0.4	-4	2005
22	Tommy O'Connell	21	18.19	11	8	2	0.571	3	1961
23	Donovan McNabb	177	18.28	107	69	1	0.607	38	2011
24	Joe Flacco	127	18.34	82	45	0	0.646	37	2014
24	Virgil Carter	31	18.35	16	15	0	0.516	1	1975
24	Joe Reed	19	18.37	9	10	0	0.474	-1	1979
25	Joe Theismann	132	18.37	83	49	0	0.629	34	1985
26	Roman Gabriel	159	18.38	86	66	7	0.563	20	1976
27	Ben Roethlisberger	173	18.4	116	57	0	0.671	59	2014
28	Ken Stabler	158	18.42	103	54	1	0.655	49	1983
28	Charlie Trippi	16	18.44	5	11	0	0.313	-6	1952
29	Mark Rypien	85	18.48	52	33	0	0.612	19	1995
30	Doug Flutie	68	18.5	38	30	0	0.559	8	2004
31	Brad Johnson	125	18.5	72	53	0	0.576	19	2008
32	Milt Plum	104	18.52	56	42	6	0.567	14	1967
33	Johnny Unitas	194	18.53	124	66	4	0.649	58	1973
33	Steve Walsh	41	18.54	21	20	0	0.512	1	1996
33	Kent Graham	38	18.61	17	21	0	0.447	-4	2000
34	Mike Tomczak	78	18.67	45	33	0	0.577	12	1999
35	Doug Williams	88	18.73	42	45	1	0.483	-3	1989
35	Damon Huard	27	18.81	15	12	0	0.556	3	2008
36	Steve Young	157	18.84	102	55	0	0.65	47	1999
37	Tom Brady	236	18.86	181	55	0	0.767	126	2014
38	Jay Schroeder	104	18.87	64	40	0	0.615	24	1994
39	Elvis Grbac	73	18.88	41	32	0	0.562	9	2001
40	Byron Leftwich	51	18.9	24	27	0	0.471	-3	2012
41	Bob Avellini	51	18.98	23	28	0	0.451	-5	1984
41	Don Strock	23	19	16	7	0	0.696	9	1988
41	Jim Miller	28	19	15	13	0	0.536	2	2002
42	Mike Phipps	73	19.04	38	33	2	0.534	5	1980
43	Bill Munson	66	19.05	27	34	5	0.447	-7	1975
43	Scott Brunner	32	19.06	13	19	0	0.406	-6	1983
43	Pete Beathard	37	19.08	18	18	1	0.5	0	1972
43	Jeff Kemp	30	19.1	16	13	1	0.55	3	1991
43	Mike Boryla	19	19.11	8	11	0	0.421	-3	1978
44	Neil O'Donnell	107	19.12	58	49	0	0.542	9	2003
45	Bob Berry	52	19.17	20	29	3	0.413	-9	1974
46	Jim Kelly	177	19.18	110	67	0	0.621	43	1996
46	Jack Concannon	45	19.18	20	24	1	0.456	-4	1974
47	Greg Landry	99	19.18	44	52	3	0.46	-8	1984
47	Jim Ninowski	31	19.19	15	15	1	0.5	0	1968
48	Jack Kemp	111	19.21	67	41	3	0.617	26	1969
48	Rudy Bukich	38	19.21	21	14	3	0.592	7	1966
49	Ken Anderson	178	19.29	93	85	0	0.522	8	1985
50	Jeff Hostetler	88	19.31	55	33	0	0.625	22	1997
51	John Elway	252	19.43	162	89	1	0.645	73	1998
52	Billy Kilmer	121	19.48	63	57	1	0.525	6	1978
52	Steve Ramsey	31	19.52	14	17	0	0.452	-3	1976
53	Chad Pennington	87	19.53	46	41	0	0.529	5	2010
54	Drew Bledsoe	199	19.54	101	98	0	0.508	3	2006
55	Randall Cunningham	144	19.56	85	58	1	0.594	27	2001
56	Rich Gannon	138	19.57	79	59	0	0.572	20	2004
56	Matt Cavanaugh	19	19.63	8	11	0	0.421	-3	1986
57	Eric Hipple	58	19.64	28	30	0	0.483	-2	1989
58	Bubby Brister	77	19.66	38	39	0	0.494	-1	1998
59	Jim Harbaugh	145	19.68	68	77	0	0.469	-9	2000
60	Bobby Hebert	103	19.68	56	47	0	0.544	9	1996
60	Tarvaris Jackson	35	19.69	17	18	0	0.486	-1	2011
61	Steve McNair	163	19.69	96	67	0	0.589	29	2007
61	Johnny Lujack	20	19.7	13	7	0	0.65	6	1951
61	Cody Carlson	20	19.7	11	9	0	0.55	2	1994
61	Frankie Albert	32	19.72	14	17	1	0.453	-3	1952
61	Danny Kanell	25	19.72	10	14	1	0.42	-4	2003
62	Danny White	102	19.73	67	35	0	0.657	32	1987
63	Dave Krieg	184	19.73	101	83	0	0.549	18	1996
64	Gary Danielson	61	19.75	28	32	1	0.467	-4	1988
65	Brett Favre	322	19.75	199	123	0	0.618	76	2010
65	Dave Wilson	31	19.77	12	19	0	0.387	-7	1986
66	Jake Delhomme	104	19.78	61	43	0	0.587	18	2010
67	Tony Banks	78	19.83	35	43	0	0.449	-8	2003
68	Brian Griese	83	19.86	45	38	0	0.542	7	2008
69	Steve Grogan	138	19.86	75	63	0	0.543	12	1990
69	Todd Collins	22	19.91	11	11	0	0.5	0	2010
69	Paul McDonald	22	19.91	8	14	0	0.364	-6	1984
69	Hugh Millen	25	19.92	7	18	0	0.28	-11	1994
70	Alex Smith	108	19.94	58	49	1	0.542	9	2014
71	Jack Trudeau	50	20	19	31	0	0.38	-12	1994
71	Colin Kaepernick	45	20	29	16	0	0.644	13	2014
72	Mike Livingston	75	20.01	31	43	1	0.42	-12	1979
73	Kyle Orton	82	20.06	42	40	0	0.512	2	2014
73	Kelly Stouffer	16	20.06	5	11	0	0.313	-6	1992
74	Mark Brunell	161	20.08	83	78	0	0.516	5	2009
75	Steve Beuerlein	104	20.1	48	56	0	0.462	-8	2003
76	Mark Malone	55	20.13	24	31	0	0.436	-7	1988
76	Joe Pisarcik	30	20.17	9	21	0	0.3	-12	1984
77	Frank Ryan	90	20.18	58	29	3	0.661	29	1968
77	Vince Evans	39	20.18	14	25	0	0.359	-11	1995
77	Kellen Clemens	21	20.19	8	13	0	0.381	-5	2013
77	A.J. Feeley	18	20.22	8	10	0	0.444	-2	2011
78	Bobby Layne	139	20.24	83	52	4	0.612	31	1962
78	Heath Shuler	22	20.27	8	14	0	0.364	-6	1997
79	Dave Brown	60	20.3	26	34	0	0.433	-8	2000
80	Joe Ferguson	175	20.33	80	95	0	0.457	-15	1989
81	Rex Grossman	51	20.33	27	24	0	0.529	3	2011
82	Don Majkowski	57	20.33	26	30	1	0.465	-4	1996
83	Stan Humphries	87	20.4	53	34	0	0.609	19	1997
84	Jim Plunkett	154	20.41	80	74	0	0.519	6	1986
84	Chris Simms	17	20.41	7	10	0	0.412	-3	2009
85	Bernie Kosar	115	20.43	56	58	1	0.491	-2	1995
86	Vince Young	51	20.49	31	20	0	0.608	11	2011
86	Shaun Hill	34	20.5	16	18	0	0.471	-2	2014
87	Andy Dalton	68	20.51	40	27	1	0.596	13	2014
88	John Hadl	169	20.53	82	78	9	0.512	4	1977
88	Kyle Boller	47	20.64	20	27	0	0.426	-7	2011
89	Charlie Batch	55	20.71	25	30	0	0.455	-5	2012
89	Marty Domres	32	20.72	12	20	0	0.375	-8	1977
90	Dan Marino	258	20.75	155	103	0	0.601	52	1999
91	Philip Rivers	153	20.76	92	61	0	0.601	31	2014
91	Todd Blackledge	30	20.77	15	15	0	0.5	0	1989
91	Seneca Wallace	22	20.77	6	16	0	0.273	-10	2013
92	Steve Bartkowski	131	20.82	60	71	0	0.458	-11	1986
92	Brian Hoyer	17	20.82	10	7	0	0.588	3	2014
93	Rodney Peete	89	20.85	46	43	0	0.517	3	2003
93	Shane Matthews	22	20.86	11	11	0	0.5	0	2002
94	Mark Sanchez	76	20.92	41	35	0	0.539	6	2014
95	Fran Tarkenton	250	20.94	130	114	6	0.532	16	1978
95	Pat Ryan	21	20.95	12	9	0	0.571	3	1989
96	Aaron Rodgers	114	20.98	76	38	0	0.667	38	2014
96	Pete Liske	29	21	13	15	1	0.466	-2	1972
97	Wade Wilson	74	21.01	38	36	0	0.514	2	1998
98	Don Meredith	89	21.04	49	36	4	0.573	13	1968
99	Dan Pastorini	122	21.07	59	63	0	0.484	-4	1981
100	David Garrard	78	21.09	40	38	0	0.513	2	2010
101	Kerry Collins	187	21.12	84	103	0	0.449	-19	2011
102	Brian Sipe	113	21.15	57	56	0	0.504	1	1983
102	John Friesz	38	21.18	13	25	0	0.342	-12	1998
103	Ed Brown	99	21.19	55	39	5	0.581	16	1964
103	Patrick Ramsey	24	21.21	10	14	0	0.417	-4	2005
103	Trent Edwards	33	21.21	14	19	0	0.424	-5	2010
103	Sammy Baugh	22	21.23	11	11	0	0.5	0	1952
104	Marc Wilson	61	21.25	32	29	0	0.525	3	1990
105	Tommy Kramer	114	21.32	56	58	0	0.491	-2	1989
105	Ryan Tannehill	48	21.35	23	25	0	0.479	-2	2014
105	Gary Huff	28	21.39	7	21	0	0.25	-14	1977
105	David Klingler	24	21.42	4	20	0	0.167	-16	1994
106	Warren Moon	213	21.45	105	108	0	0.493	-3	2000
107	Ken O'Brien	112	21.46	50	61	1	0.451	-11	1993
108	Vince Ferragamo	59	21.46	30	29	0	0.508	1	1985
109	Bill Kenney	77	21.49	34	43	0	0.442	-9	1988
110	Jim Hart	182	21.49	87	90	5	0.492	-3	1983
110	John Roach	19	21.53	7	11	1	0.395	-4	1964
111	Peyton Manning	280	21.53	190	90	0	0.679	100	2014
111	Steve Pelluer	30	21.53	9	20	1	0.317	-11	1989
111	Gary Hogeboom	37	21.59	18	19	0	0.486	-1	1989
112	Tony Eason	56	21.61	31	25	0	0.554	6	1989
113	Vinny Testaverde	219	21.62	92	126	1	0.422	-34	2007
114	Chris Chandler	155	21.68	69	86	0	0.445	-17	2004
115	Richard Todd	112	21.69	50	61	1	0.451	-11	1984
116	Tim Couch	59	21.69	22	37	0	0.373	-15	2003
117	Michael Vick	115	21.76	61	53	1	0.535	8	2014
118	Jason Campbell	79	21.77	32	47	0	0.405	-15	2013
118	Karl Sweetan	19	21.79	6	10	3	0.395	-4	1968
119	Gus Frerotte	95	21.8	45	49	1	0.479	-4	2008
119	Bob Waterfield	25	21.84	15	10	0	0.6	5	1952
119	Steve Spurrier	38	21.84	13	24	1	0.355	-11	1976
120	Jake Plummer	142	21.94	71	71	0	0.5	0	2006
121	Joey Harrington	76	21.95	26	50	0	0.342	-24	2007
121	Tommy Maddox	38	21.95	16	21	1	0.434	-5	2005
122	Bobby Douglass	53	21.96	16	36	1	0.311	-20	1977
123	Rick Mirer	68	21.99	24	44	0	0.353	-20	2003
124	Jim Everett	158	22.01	66	92	0	0.418	-26	1997
125	Billy Wade	86	22.05	41	43	2	0.488	-2	1965
126	Lynn Dickey	113	22.1	46	64	3	0.42	-18	1985
127	Tony Romo	129	22.1	77	52	0	0.597	25	2014
127	Terry Hanratty	18	22.11	6	12	0	0.333	-6	1976
128	Matt Ryan	115	22.13	67	48	0	0.583	19	2014
129	Jeff Garcia	122	22.16	60	62	0	0.492	-2	2008
130	Charley Johnson	124	22.19	59	57	8	0.508	2	1975
131	Matt Hasselbeck	163	22.2	85	78	0	0.521	7	2012
132	Y.A. Tittle	139	22.21	78	56	5	0.579	22	1964
132	Charlie Frye	23	22.22	7	16	0	0.304	-9	2009
132	Mike Taliaferro	31	22.23	11	20	0	0.355	-9	1970
133	Cam Newton	65	22.25	31	33	1	0.485	-2	2014
134	Boomer Esiason	178	22.25	83	95	0	0.466	-12	1997
135	Bill Nelsen	79	22.27	42	34	3	0.551	8	1972
135	Colt McCoy	25	22.28	7	18	0	0.28	-11	2014
136	Norm Van Brocklin	105	22.29	63	38	4	0.619	25	1960
136	Craig Erickson	35	22.34	14	21	0	0.4	-7	1996
136	Doug Pederson	17	22.35	3	14	0	0.176	-11	2000
136	George Shaw	29	22.41	11	16	2	0.414	-5	1962
137	Kurt Warner	128	22.46	75	53	0	0.586	22	2009
138	Eli Manning	178	22.48	99	79	0	0.556	20	2014
139	Steve DeBerg	144	22.53	54	89	1	0.378	-35	1998
140	John Brodie	164	22.55	76	80	8	0.488	-4	1973
140	Sam Bradford	49	22.55	18	30	1	0.378	-12	2013
141	Babe Parilli	104	22.59	50	47	7	0.514	3	1967
141	Zeke Bratkowski	47	22.6	16	30	1	0.351	-14	1971
142	Sonny Jurgensen	149	22.61	69	73	7	0.487	-4	1974
143	Erik Kramer	70	22.61	32	38	0	0.457	-6	1999
143	Chuck Long	21	22.67	4	17	0	0.19	-13	1988
143	J.P. Losman	33	22.7	10	23	0	0.303	-13	2008
143	Rob Johnson	30	22.7	12	18	0	0.4	-6	2002
143	Kevin Kolb	21	22.71	9	12	0	0.429	-3	2012
143	Derek Anderson	45	22.73	20	25	0	0.444	-5	2014
144	Drew Brees	212	22.76	123	89	0	0.58	34	2014
144	Matt Leinart	18	22.78	8	10	0	0.444	-2	2011
144	Matt Robinson	20	22.8	10	10	0	0.5	0	1980
144	Ty Detmer	26	22.81	11	15	0	0.423	-4	2001
144	Adrian Burk	41	22.83	15	23	3	0.402	-8	1956
145	Carson Palmer	145	22.83	70	75	0	0.483	-5	2014
146	Scott Mitchell	73	22.89	32	41	0	0.438	-9	2000
147	Bert Jones	99	22.91	47	52	0	0.475	-5	1982
147	Billy Joe Tolliver	47	22.94	15	32	0	0.319	-17	1999
148	Cotton Davidson	54	22.94	20	33	1	0.38	-13	1966
148	Josh McCown	49	22.98	17	32	0	0.347	-15	2014
149	Dan Fouts	178	23.03	89	88	1	0.503	1	1987
149	Jim Finks	45	23.04	18	27	0	0.4	-9	1955
149	Jacky Lee	23	23.09	7	15	1	0.326	-8	1969
150	Joe Namath	132	23.1	64	64	4	0.5	0	1977
151	George Blanda	107	23.1	55	51	1	0.519	4	1968
151	Steve Dils	27	23.11	10	17	0	0.37	-7	1988
152	Neil Lomax	102	23.12	47	53	2	0.471	-6	1988
153	Matt Schaub	92	23.24	47	45	0	0.511	2	2013
154	Mike Pagel	54	23.24	17	36	1	0.324	-19	1990
154	Jeff Komlo	16	23.25	2	14	0	0.125	-12	1981
154	Cliff Stoudt	21	23.29	9	12	0	0.429	-3	1988
154	Billy Joe Hobert	17	23.29	4	13	0	0.235	-9	1999
154	David Archer	23	23.3	9	13	1	0.413	-4	1987
155	Matt Cassel	72	23.33	33	39	0	0.458	-6	2014
156	Chris Miller	94	23.34	35	59	0	0.372	-24	1999
156	Ryan Leaf	21	23.43	4	17	0	0.19	-13	2001
156	Jack Thompson	21	23.52	4	17	0	0.19	-13	1984
157	Andrew Luck	54	23.54	36	18	0	0.667	18	2014
158	Trent Green	115	23.58	56	59	0	0.487	-3	2008
159	Jeff George	127	23.6	47	80	0	0.37	-33	2001
160	David Carr	79	23.63	23	56	0	0.291	-33	2007
160	John Skelton	17	23.65	8	9	0	0.471	-1	2012
160	John Reaves	17	23.65	4	13	0	0.235	-9	1987
160	Nick Foles	25	23.68	15	10	0	0.6	5	2014
161	Lamar McHan	73	23.73	24	47	2	0.342	-23	1963
161	Frank Reich	22	23.73	7	15	0	0.318	-8	1998
161	Kelly Holcomb	25	23.76	8	17	0	0.32	-9	2007
162	Norm Snead	158	23.95	52	99	7	0.351	-47	1976
162	Chris Weinke	20	23.95	2	18	0	0.1	-16	2007
162	Brandon Weeden	21	23.95	5	16	0	0.238	-11	2014
162	Ralph Guglielmi	26	23.96	7	16	3	0.327	-9	1963
162	Dick Wood	34	23.97	13	19	2	0.412	-6	1966
163	Josh Freeman	60	24.08	24	36	0	0.4	-12	2013
164	Jay Cutler	121	24.1	62	59	0	0.512	3	2014
165	Ryan Fitzpatrick	89	24.1	33	55	1	0.376	-22	2014
166	Jim Zorn	106	24.12	44	62	0	0.415	-18	1987
167	Archie Manning	139	24.21	35	101	3	0.263	-66	1984
168	Aaron Brooks	92	24.23	39	53	0	0.424	-14	2006
169	Eddie LeBaron	81	24.31	26	52	3	0.34	-26	1963
170	Matthew Stafford	79	24.33	35	44	0	0.443	-9	2014
170	Randy Wright	32	24.34	7	25	0	0.219	-18	1988
171	Jon Kitna	125	24.46	50	75	0	0.4	-25	2010
171	Geno Smith	29	24.59	11	18	0	0.379	-7	2014
172	Tom Flores	67	24.63	31	32	4	0.493	-1	1968
172	Johnny Green	19	24.68	8	11	0	0.421	-3	1962
172	JaMarcus Russell	25	24.72	7	18	0	0.28	-11	2009
172	Akili Smith	17	24.76	3	14	0	0.176	-11	2002
173	Jeff Blake	100	24.82	39	61	0	0.39	-22	2003
173	Blaine Gabbert	27	24.85	5	22	0	0.185	-17	2013
174	Tobin Rote	119	24.87	51	64	4	0.445	-13	1964
174	Dick Shiner	29	24.93	7	21	1	0.259	-14	1973
174	Bruce Gradkowski	20	25.05	6	14	0	0.3	-8	2010
174	Jake Locker	23	25.13	9	14	0	0.391	-5	2014
175	Daunte Culpepper	104	25.15	43	61	0	0.413	-18	2009
175	Tim Rattay	18	25.28	5	13	0	0.278	-8	2006
176	Chad Henne	53	25.45	18	35	0	0.34	-17	2014
177	Marc Bulger	98	25.59	42	56	0	0.429	-14	2009
177	Tim Tebow	16	25.81	9	7	0	0.563	2	2011
177	Brady Quinn	20	25.85	4	16	0	0.2	-12	2012
177	Dennis Shaw	37	26.03	8	27	2	0.243	-19	1972
177	Timm Rosenbach	20	26.4	5	15	0	0.25	-10	1992
177	George Ratterman	20	26.55	9	10	1	0.475	-1	1956
177	Mike Glennon	18	26.78	5	13	0	0.278	-8	2014
177	Robert Griffin	36	26.83	14	22	0	0.389	-8	2014
177	Christian Ponder	36	27.08	14	21	1	0.403	-7	2014
177	Steve Tensi	34	27.09	10	23	1	0.309	-13	1970
177	Kent Nix	18	27.17	4	14	0	0.222	-10	1972
177	Butch Songin	20	27.2	8	11	1	0.425	-3	1962
177	Al Dorow	44	27.41	19	25	0	0.432	-6	1962
178	Frank Tripucka	50	27.5	17	32	1	0.35	-15	1963
178	King Hill	30	27.87	7	22	1	0.25	-15	1968
178	Derek Carr	16	28.25	3	13	0	0.188	-10	2014
178	Randy Johnson	49	28.45	10	38	1	0.214	-28	1976
178	Don Trull	18	28.72	4	12	2	0.278	-8	1969
178	Mickey Slaughter	19	31.74	2	15	2	0.158	-13	1966

Again, I will leave the commentary to you guys.

{ 5 comments }

Average Points per Game Scored in Games Started By Each Quarterback

by Chase Stuart on March 27, 2015

in Data Dump, Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers has started 114 games (including playoffs) in his career. In those games, the Packers have averaged 28.5 points per game (including non-offensive scores), the highest average for any quarterback in his team’s starts in NFL history.

The table below shows the PPG average in each quarterback’s starts for all quarterbacks with at least 15 starts. However, since 15 is a pretty low cut-off, I only ranked players with 50 starts; if a player had fewer than 50 starts, I just gave him the same rank as the player above him in the table.

Here’s how to read the table below. Rodgers has started 114 games, his team has scored 28.5 points per game during those games, and he has produced a 76-38-0 record. That translates to a 0.667 winning percentage, and Rodgers is 38 games over 0.500.

Rk	Quarterback	G	PF	W	L	T	Win %	WinOv.500	Last Yr
1	Aaron Rodgers	114	28.5	76	38	0	0.667	38	2014
1	Bob Waterfield	25	27.92	15	10	0	0.6	5	1952
2	Tom Brady	236	27.86	181	55	0	0.767	126	2014
2	Nick Foles	25	27	15	10	0	0.6	5	2014
3	Peyton Manning	280	26.92	190	90	0	0.679	100	2014
4	Otto Graham	83	26.78	66	16	1	0.801	50	1955
5	Norm Van Brocklin	105	26.74	63	38	4	0.619	25	1960
6	Kurt Warner	128	26.66	75	53	0	0.586	22	2009
7	Drew Brees	212	26.66	123	89	0	0.58	34	2014
8	Daryle Lamonica	97	26.62	70	21	6	0.753	49	1973
9	Don Meredith	89	26.61	49	36	4	0.573	13	1968
10	Russell Wilson	56	25.84	42	14	0	0.75	28	2014
11	Steve Young	157	25.76	102	55	0	0.65	47	1999
12	Philip Rivers	153	25.63	92	61	0	0.601	31	2014
13	Tony Romo	129	25.28	77	52	0	0.597	25	2014
13	George Ratterman	20	25.25	9	10	1	0.475	-1	1956
14	George Blanda	107	25.23	55	51	1	0.519	4	1968
15	Danny White	102	25.23	67	35	0	0.657	32	1987
16	Trent Green	115	25.07	56	59	0	0.487	-3	2008
17	Frank Ryan	90	24.84	58	29	3	0.661	29	1968
18	Andrew Luck	54	24.8	36	18	0	0.667	18	2014
19	Joe Montana	187	24.63	133	54	0	0.711	79	1994
19	Don Strock	23	24.52	16	7	0	0.696	9	1988
20	Y.A. Tittle	139	24.39	78	56	5	0.579	22	1964
21	Johnny Unitas	194	24.36	124	66	4	0.649	58	1973
22	Matt Ryan	115	24.3	67	48	0	0.583	19	2014
23	Rich Gannon	138	24.2	79	59	0	0.572	20	2004
24	Brett Favre	322	24.07	199	123	0	0.618	76	2010
24	Don Trull	18	23.83	4	12	2	0.278	-8	1969
25	Roger Staubach	131	23.82	96	35	0	0.733	61	1979
25	Pat Ryan	21	23.81	12	9	0	0.571	3	1989
26	Dan Fouts	178	23.77	89	88	1	0.503	1	1987
27	Bobby Layne	139	23.73	83	52	4	0.612	31	1962
28	Joe Flacco	127	23.68	82	45	0	0.646	37	2014
29	Matt Schaub	92	23.65	47	45	0	0.511	2	2013
30	Matthew Stafford	79	23.63	35	44	0	0.443	-9	2014
31	Eli Manning	178	23.62	99	79	0	0.556	20	2014
31	Colin Kaepernick	45	23.62	29	16	0	0.644	13	2014
32	Ben Roethlisberger	173	23.61	116	57	0	0.671	59	2014
33	Len Dawson	167	23.51	99	60	8	0.617	39	1975
33	Christian Ponder	36	23.5	14	21	1	0.403	-7	2014
34	Mark Rypien	85	23.38	52	33	0	0.612	19	1995
34	Butch Songin	20	23.35	8	11	1	0.425	-3	1962
35	Jack Kemp	111	23.3	67	41	3	0.617	26	1969
36	John Elway	252	23.27	162	89	1	0.645	73	1998
37	Jim Kelly	177	23.2	110	67	0	0.621	43	1996
38	Andy Dalton	68	23.13	40	27	1	0.596	13	2014
39	Randall Cunningham	144	23.06	85	58	1	0.594	27	2001
40	Dan Marino	258	23.04	155	103	0	0.601	52	1999
40	Rudy Bukich	38	23	21	14	3	0.592	7	1966
40	Robert Griffin	36	23	14	22	0	0.389	-8	2014
41	Bart Starr	167	22.99	103	58	6	0.635	45	1971
42	Donovan McNabb	177	22.92	107	69	1	0.607	38	2011
43	Tobin Rote	119	22.87	51	64	4	0.445	-13	1964
44	Terry Bradshaw	177	22.85	121	56	0	0.684	65	1983
45	Cam Newton	65	22.82	31	33	1	0.485	-2	2014
46	Bill Nelsen	79	22.81	42	34	3	0.551	8	1972
47	Jay Cutler	121	22.74	62	59	0	0.512	3	2014
47	Johnny Lujack	20	22.55	13	7	0	0.65	6	1951
48	Jeff Garcia	122	22.55	60	62	0	0.492	-2	2008
49	Ken Stabler	158	22.51	103	54	1	0.655	49	1983
50	Billy Wade	86	22.47	41	43	2	0.488	-2	1965
51	Joe Namath	132	22.42	64	64	4	0.5	0	1977
52	Elvis Grbac	73	22.41	41	32	0	0.562	9	2001
53	Scott Mitchell	73	22.41	32	41	0	0.438	-9	2000
53	Matt Robinson	20	22.4	10	10	0	0.5	0	1980
54	Steve Grogan	138	22.38	75	63	0	0.543	12	1990
54	Tarvaris Jackson	35	22.29	17	18	0	0.486	-1	2011
55	Tom Flores	67	22.28	31	32	4	0.493	-1	1968
56	Mark Sanchez	76	22.26	41	35	0	0.539	6	2014
57	Michael Vick	115	22.23	61	53	1	0.535	8	2014
58	Charley Johnson	124	22.23	59	57	8	0.508	2	1975
58	Johnny Green	19	22.21	8	11	0	0.421	-3	1962
59	Babe Parilli	104	22.19	50	47	7	0.514	3	1967
60	Matt Hasselbeck	163	22.17	85	78	0	0.521	7	2012
60	Shaun Hill	34	22.06	16	18	0	0.471	-2	2014
60	John Roach	19	22.05	7	11	1	0.395	-4	1964
61	Brian Griese	83	22.04	45	38	0	0.542	7	2008
62	Carson Palmer	145	22.01	70	75	0	0.483	-5	2014
62	Brian Hoyer	17	22	10	7	0	0.588	3	2014
63	Ed Brown	99	21.97	55	39	5	0.581	16	1964
64	John Hadl	169	21.96	82	78	9	0.512	4	1977
65	Joe Theismann	132	21.96	83	49	0	0.629	34	1985
66	Troy Aikman	180	21.94	105	75	0	0.583	30	2000
67	Rex Grossman	51	21.9	27	24	0	0.529	3	2011
68	Warren Moon	213	21.9	105	108	0	0.493	-3	2000
69	Boomer Esiason	178	21.87	83	95	0	0.466	-12	1997
70	Charlie Conerly	92	21.78	58	33	1	0.636	25	1961
71	Bill Kenney	77	21.75	34	43	0	0.442	-9	1988
72	Jake Delhomme	104	21.73	61	43	0	0.587	18	2010
73	Steve McNair	163	21.72	96	67	0	0.589	29	2007
74	Milt Plum	104	21.7	56	42	6	0.567	14	1967
75	David Woodley	58	21.67	37	20	1	0.647	17	1985
76	David Garrard	78	21.65	40	38	0	0.513	2	2010
77	John Brodie	164	21.63	76	80	8	0.488	-4	1973
78	Stan Humphries	87	21.62	53	34	0	0.609	19	1997
79	Mark Brunell	161	21.61	83	78	0	0.516	5	2009
80	Vince Young	51	21.59	31	20	0	0.608	11	2011
81	Vince Ferragamo	59	21.58	30	29	0	0.508	1	1985
82	Bert Jones	99	21.56	47	52	0	0.475	-5	1982
83	Wade Wilson	74	21.55	38	36	0	0.514	2	1998
84	Sonny Jurgensen	149	21.54	69	73	7	0.487	-4	1974
85	Daunte Culpepper	104	21.48	43	61	0	0.413	-18	2009
86	Fran Tarkenton	250	21.4	130	114	6	0.532	16	1978
87	Brad Johnson	125	21.38	72	53	0	0.576	19	2008
88	Gus Frerotte	95	21.37	45	49	1	0.479	-4	2008
89	Dave Krieg	184	21.34	101	83	0	0.549	18	1996
90	Ken Anderson	178	21.31	93	85	0	0.522	8	1985
91	Roman Gabriel	159	21.3	86	66	7	0.563	20	1976
91	Tommy Maddox	38	21.29	16	21	1	0.434	-5	2005
92	Bobby Hebert	103	21.26	56	47	0	0.544	9	1996
93	Alex Smith	108	21.21	58	49	1	0.542	9	2014
93	Al Dorow	44	21.2	19	25	0	0.432	-6	1962
93	Matt Leinart	18	21.17	8	10	0	0.444	-2	2011
94	Bob Griese	162	21.15	98	61	3	0.614	37	1980
95	Marc Bulger	98	21.08	42	56	0	0.429	-14	2009
96	Jeff Hostetler	88	21.06	55	33	0	0.625	22	1997
97	Jim Hart	182	21.04	87	90	5	0.492	-3	1983
97	Mickey Slaughter	19	21	2	15	2	0.158	-13	1966
98	Earl Morrall	107	20.97	67	37	3	0.64	30	1975
98	Jake Locker	23	20.91	9	14	0	0.391	-5	2014
98	Kevin Kolb	21	20.9	9	12	0	0.429	-3	2012
98	Jeff Kemp	30	20.9	16	13	1	0.55	3	1991
99	Jon Kitna	125	20.89	50	75	0	0.4	-25	2010
100	Bernie Kosar	115	20.84	56	58	1	0.491	-2	1995
101	Matt Cassel	72	20.82	33	39	0	0.458	-6	2014
101	Steve Bono	43	20.81	28	15	0	0.651	13	1998
101	Kelly Holcomb	25	20.8	8	17	0	0.32	-9	2007
101	Matt Cavanaugh	19	20.79	8	11	0	0.421	-3	1986
102	Tony Eason	56	20.79	31	25	0	0.554	6	1989
103	Jim McMahon	103	20.75	70	33	0	0.68	37	1994
104	Drew Bledsoe	199	20.74	101	98	0	0.508	3	2006
105	Doug Flutie	68	20.74	38	30	0	0.559	8	2004
106	Kyle Orton	82	20.73	42	40	0	0.512	2	2014
107	Jay Fiedler	63	20.73	38	25	0	0.603	13	2004
107	Don Heinrich	37	20.73	22	13	2	0.622	9	1962
108	Mike Tomczak	78	20.72	45	33	0	0.577	12	1999
109	Charlie Batch	55	20.69	25	30	0	0.455	-5	2012
109	Ryan Tannehill	48	20.69	23	25	0	0.479	-2	2014
110	Neil Lomax	102	20.69	47	53	2	0.471	-6	1988
111	Chad Pennington	87	20.64	46	41	0	0.529	5	2010
111	King Hill	30	20.6	7	22	1	0.25	-15	1968
111	George Shaw	29	20.59	11	16	2	0.414	-5	1962
112	Tommy Kramer	114	20.55	56	58	0	0.491	-2	1989
113	Aaron Brooks	92	20.53	39	53	0	0.424	-14	2006
114	Gary Danielson	61	20.48	28	32	1	0.467	-4	1988
115	Jim Plunkett	154	20.41	80	74	0	0.519	6	1986
116	Marc Wilson	61	20.39	32	29	0	0.525	3	1990
117	Steve Bartkowski	131	20.38	60	71	0	0.458	-11	1986
117	Bobby Thomason	42	20.36	19	22	1	0.464	-3	1957
117	Virgil Carter	31	20.35	16	15	0	0.516	1	1975
118	Cotton Davidson	54	20.35	20	33	1	0.38	-13	1966
118	Dick Wood	34	20.32	13	19	2	0.412	-6	1966
119	Phil Simms	169	20.3	101	68	0	0.598	33	1993
120	Pat Haden	60	20.27	37	22	1	0.625	15	1981
121	Steve Beuerlein	104	20.25	48	56	0	0.462	-8	2003
122	Jim Everett	158	20.19	66	92	0	0.418	-26	1997
123	Ken O'Brien	112	20.19	50	61	1	0.451	-11	1993
124	Kordell Stewart	86	20.17	50	36	0	0.581	14	2003
125	Billy Kilmer	121	20.17	63	57	1	0.525	6	1978
126	Jay Schroeder	104	20.16	64	40	0	0.615	24	1994
126	Jim Miller	28	20.14	15	13	0	0.536	2	2002
126	Frank Reich	22	20.14	7	15	0	0.318	-8	1998
127	Mark Malone	55	20.11	24	31	0	0.436	-7	1988
128	Richard Todd	112	20.1	50	61	1	0.451	-11	1984
128	Adrian Burk	41	20.1	15	23	3	0.402	-8	1956
128	Cliff Stoudt	21	20.1	9	12	0	0.429	-3	1988
129	Frank Tripucka	50	20.06	17	32	1	0.35	-15	1963
129	Dieter Brock	17	20.06	12	5	0	0.706	7	1985
130	Eric Hipple	58	20.05	28	30	0	0.483	-2	1989
130	Jim Ninowski	31	20.03	15	15	1	0.5	0	1968
131	Jim Zorn	106	20	44	62	0	0.415	-18	1987
132	Jeff Blake	100	20	39	61	0	0.39	-22	2003
133	Ryan Fitzpatrick	89	20	33	55	1	0.376	-22	2014
133	Tommy O'Connell	21	20	11	8	2	0.571	3	1961
133	Mike Glennon	18	19.94	5	13	0	0.278	-8	2014
134	Brian Sipe	113	19.89	57	56	0	0.504	1	1983
134	Tim Tebow	16	19.88	9	7	0	0.563	2	2011
135	Neil O'Donnell	107	19.87	58	49	0	0.542	9	2003
135	Todd Blackledge	30	19.87	15	15	0	0.5	0	1989
136	Josh Freeman	60	19.78	24	36	0	0.4	-12	2013
137	Jake Plummer	142	19.74	71	71	0	0.5	0	2006
138	Chris Chandler	155	19.72	69	86	0	0.445	-17	2004
138	Cody Carlson	20	19.7	11	9	0	0.55	2	1994
139	Lynn Dickey	113	19.7	46	64	3	0.42	-18	1985
140	Erik Kramer	70	19.69	32	38	0	0.457	-6	1999
141	Jason Campbell	79	19.66	32	47	0	0.405	-15	2013
142	Kerry Collins	187	19.63	84	103	0	0.449	-19	2011
143	Steve DeBerg	144	19.6	54	89	1	0.378	-35	1998
144	Norm Snead	158	19.59	52	99	7	0.351	-47	1976
144	Jim Finks	45	19.58	18	27	0	0.4	-9	1955
144	Shaun King	27	19.52	15	12	0	0.556	3	2004
145	Vinny Testaverde	219	19.5	92	126	1	0.422	-34	2007
146	Rodney Peete	89	19.48	46	43	0	0.517	3	2003
146	Steve Tensi	34	19.47	10	23	1	0.309	-13	1970
147	Mike Livingston	75	19.45	31	43	1	0.42	-12	1979
148	Don Majkowski	57	19.44	26	30	1	0.465	-4	1996
149	Chris Miller	94	19.41	35	59	0	0.372	-24	1999
149	Steve Ramsey	31	19.39	14	17	0	0.452	-3	1976
149	Gary Hogeboom	37	19.38	18	19	0	0.486	-1	1989
150	Bubby Brister	77	19.35	38	39	0	0.494	-1	1998
150	Rob Johnson	30	19.27	12	18	0	0.4	-6	2002
151	Tony Banks	78	19.18	35	43	0	0.449	-8	2003
152	Joe Kapp	52	19.15	26	23	3	0.529	3	1970
153	Craig Morton	154	19.14	86	67	1	0.562	19	1982
153	Frankie Albert	32	19.09	14	17	1	0.453	-3	1952
153	James Harris	44	19.07	26	18	0	0.591	8	1978
154	Ron Jaworski	151	19.06	77	73	1	0.513	4	1989
154	Sammy Baugh	22	19.05	11	11	0	0.5	0	1952
154	Kyle Boller	47	19.02	20	27	0	0.426	-7	2011
154	Josh McCown	49	18.98	17	32	0	0.347	-15	2014
155	Greg Landry	99	18.91	44	52	3	0.46	-8	1984
155	A.J. Feeley	18	18.89	8	10	0	0.444	-2	2011
155	Gary Cuozzo	41	18.85	21	20	0	0.512	1	1972
155	Dick Shiner	29	18.79	7	21	1	0.259	-14	1973
156	Joe Ferguson	175	18.78	80	95	0	0.457	-15	1989
156	John Friesz	38	18.76	13	25	0	0.342	-12	1998
156	Kellen Clemens	21	18.76	8	13	0	0.381	-5	2013
157	Bill Munson	66	18.68	27	34	5	0.447	-7	1975
158	Jim Harbaugh	145	18.68	68	77	0	0.469	-9	2000
158	Matt Moore	23	18.65	11	12	0	0.478	-1	2011
159	Chad Henne	53	18.62	18	35	0	0.34	-17	2014
159	Geno Smith	29	18.62	11	18	0	0.379	-7	2014
159	Zeke Bratkowski	47	18.53	16	30	1	0.351	-14	1971
159	Derek Anderson	45	18.51	20	25	0	0.444	-5	2014
159	Tim Rattay	18	18.5	5	13	0	0.278	-8	2006
159	Patrick Ramsey	24	18.46	10	14	0	0.417	-4	2005
159	Trent Edwards	33	18.42	14	19	0	0.424	-5	2010
160	Dan Pastorini	122	18.27	59	63	0	0.484	-4	1981
160	Brandon Weeden	21	18.24	5	16	0	0.238	-11	2014
160	Billy Joe Tolliver	47	18.19	15	32	0	0.319	-17	1999
161	Eddie LeBaron	81	18.17	26	52	3	0.34	-26	1963
161	Danny Kanell	25	18.12	10	14	1	0.42	-4	2003
161	Vince Evans	39	18.1	14	25	0	0.359	-11	1995
161	Mike Taliaferro	31	18.1	11	20	0	0.355	-9	1970
161	Pete Beathard	37	18.05	18	18	1	0.5	0	1972
161	Bob Lee	32	17.97	20	12	0	0.625	8	1977
162	Trent Dilfer	119	17.82	63	56	0	0.529	7	2007
163	Mike Phipps	73	17.82	38	33	2	0.534	5	1980
164	Lamar McHan	73	17.82	24	47	2	0.342	-23	1963
165	Doug Williams	88	17.77	42	45	1	0.483	-3	1989
165	Ty Detmer	26	17.77	11	15	0	0.423	-4	2001
166	Rick Mirer	68	17.74	24	44	0	0.353	-20	2003
166	Heath Shuler	22	17.73	8	14	0	0.364	-6	1997
166	Steve Dils	27	17.7	10	17	0	0.37	-7	1988
166	David Archer	23	17.65	9	13	1	0.413	-4	1987
166	Anthony Wright	20	17.65	8	12	0	0.4	-4	2005
166	Steve Pelluer	30	17.63	9	20	1	0.317	-11	1989
166	Craig Erickson	35	17.6	14	21	0	0.4	-7	1996
166	Jack Thompson	21	17.57	4	17	0	0.19	-13	1984
167	Jeff George	127	17.57	47	80	0	0.37	-33	2001
167	Scott Brunner	32	17.56	13	19	0	0.406	-6	1983
167	Todd Collins	22	17.55	11	11	0	0.5	0	2010
167	Sam Bradford	49	17.53	18	30	1	0.378	-12	2013
167	Steve Fuller	44	17.41	20	24	0	0.455	-4	1986
167	Seneca Wallace	22	17.41	6	16	0	0.273	-10	2013
167	Pete Liske	29	17.34	13	15	1	0.466	-2	1972
168	Byron Leftwich	51	17.31	24	27	0	0.471	-3	2012
169	Joey Harrington	76	17.24	26	50	0	0.342	-24	2007
169	Damon Huard	27	17.22	15	12	0	0.556	3	2008
170	Bobby Douglass	53	17.19	16	36	1	0.311	-20	1977
170	John Skelton	17	17.12	8	9	0	0.471	-1	2012
170	Billy Joe Hobert	17	17.06	4	13	0	0.235	-9	1999
171	Bob Berry	52	17.04	20	29	3	0.413	-9	1974
172	Mike Pagel	54	17.04	17	36	1	0.324	-19	1990
173	Bob Avellini	51	17	23	28	0	0.451	-5	1984
173	Steve Walsh	41	17	21	20	0	0.512	1	1996
173	Kent Graham	38	16.92	17	21	0	0.447	-4	2000
173	Steve Spurrier	38	16.92	13	24	1	0.355	-11	1976
173	Karl Sweetan	19	16.84	6	10	3	0.395	-4	1968
173	Dave Wilson	31	16.84	12	19	0	0.387	-7	1986
173	Jack Concannon	45	16.82	20	24	1	0.456	-4	1974
173	Scott Hunter	43	16.81	21	19	3	0.523	2	1977
174	Dave Brown	60	16.72	26	34	0	0.433	-8	2000
174	Jacky Lee	23	16.7	7	15	1	0.326	-8	1969
174	Ralph Guglielmi	26	16.69	7	16	3	0.327	-9	1963
174	Shane Matthews	22	16.68	11	11	0	0.5	0	2002
175	Tim Couch	59	16.59	22	37	0	0.373	-15	2003
175	Kent Nix	18	16.5	4	14	0	0.222	-10	1972
175	Marty Domres	32	16.44	12	20	0	0.375	-8	1977
176	David Carr	79	16.28	23	56	0	0.291	-33	2007
176	Paul McDonald	22	16.23	8	14	0	0.364	-6	1984
176	Bruce Gradkowski	20	16.05	6	14	0	0.3	-8	2010
177	Archie Manning	139	15.91	35	101	3	0.263	-66	1984
177	Derek Carr	16	15.81	3	13	0	0.188	-10	2014
177	J.P. Losman	33	15.79	10	23	0	0.303	-13	2008
177	Terry Hanratty	18	15.72	6	12	0	0.333	-6	1976
177	Quincy Carter	35	15.71	18	17	0	0.514	1	2004
177	Randy Johnson	49	15.55	10	38	1	0.214	-28	1976
177	Mike Boryla	19	15.53	8	11	0	0.421	-3	1978
177	Colt McCoy	25	15.52	7	18	0	0.28	-11	2014
177	Dennis Shaw	37	15.46	8	27	2	0.243	-19	1972
178	Jack Trudeau	50	15.44	19	31	0	0.38	-12	1994
178	Blaine Gabbert	27	15.3	5	22	0	0.185	-17	2013
178	Randy Wright	32	15.09	7	25	0	0.219	-18	1988
178	Ryan Leaf	21	15	4	17	0	0.19	-13	2001
178	Brady Quinn	20	15	4	16	0	0.2	-12	2012
178	Joe Reed	19	15	9	10	0	0.474	-1	1979
178	Chuck Long	21	14.9	4	17	0	0.19	-13	1988
178	David Whitehurst	37	14.89	16	20	1	0.446	-4	1981
178	Joe Pisarcik	30	14.8	9	21	0	0.3	-12	1984
178	Chris Simms	17	14.76	7	10	0	0.412	-3	2009
178	Charlie Frye	23	14.61	7	16	0	0.304	-9	2009
178	Timm Rosenbach	20	14.6	5	15	0	0.25	-10	1992
178	JaMarcus Russell	25	14.48	7	18	0	0.28	-11	2009
178	Hugh Millen	25	14.4	7	18	0	0.28	-11	1994
178	Charlie Trippi	16	14.31	5	11	0	0.313	-6	1952
178	Jeff Komlo	16	14.19	2	14	0	0.125	-12	1981
178	Al Woodall	19	13.79	5	14	0	0.263	-9	1973
178	Chris Weinke	20	13.6	2	18	0	0.1	-16	2007
178	John Reaves	17	13.41	4	13	0	0.235	-9	1987
178	David Klingler	24	12.63	4	20	0	0.167	-16	1994
178	Kelly Stouffer	16	12.06	5	11	0	0.313	-6	1992
178	Akili Smith	17	10.76	3	14	0	0.176	-11	2002
178	Doug Pederson	17	10.59	3	14	0	0.176	-11	2000
178	Gary Huff	28	9.57	7	21	0	0.25	-14	1977

I’m again short on time, so I will leave the commentary to you guys, and all the Rams fans out there.

{ 7 comments }

Quarterback Records When Their Team Scores 21+ Points

by Chase Stuart on March 26, 2015

in Data Dump, Quarterbacks

On Tuesday, I looked at quarterback records when their team allows 21 or more points. Today, a look at records when scoring 21+ points. I’m short on time, so today’s post will just be a quick data dump. I leave the comments up to you!

Here’s how to read the table below. Tom Brady has played in 169 games (including playoffs) where his team has scored 21+ points, and he’s posted a 155-14-0 record in those games (translating to a 0.917 winning percentage). On average, teams win about 75% of their games when they score 21 or more points; as a result, we would have expected Brady to win 126.75 games, all else being equal. Since he’s won 155, this means he has won 28.25 more games than expected, the most in NFL history. In general, one might translate this to something like “this quarterback had a good defense.” Among active quarterbacks, Colin Kaepernick, Brady, Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, and Jay Cutler have the best five winning percentages when scoring 21+ points. [continue reading…]

{ 21 comments }

Regression to the mean and Team Wins

by Chase Stuart on March 25, 2015

in Statgeekery

The two Texas teams had much better seasons in 2014 than they did in 2013. Houston jumps from 2 to 9 wins, while Dallas improved from 8 to 12 wins. Which season was more impressive as far as team improvement?

If you like math, you probably are thinking that improving by 7 wins is more impressive than improving by 4 wins. But if you love math, you are probably thinking about regression to the mean. After all, sure, Houston won only 2 games in 2013, but nobody expected them to be that bad last year. In fact, the Texans were arguably projected to be the best team in the state last year! ^[1] Just before the season, both Houston and Dallas had Vegas over/under odds of 7.5 wins, but the way the money lines were set up hinted that Vegas wanted to get more action on Dallas and the over.

But instead of using Vegas odds, I thought it would be interesting to take a quick look at the effects of regression to the mean on team wins. I looked at every team season from 2003 to 2014, and noted how many wins each team won in the prior year and in the current year. I then ran a linear regression using prior year (Year N-1) wins to create a best-fit formula for current (Year N) wins. That formula was:

5.51 + 0.31 * Year N-1 Wins

What this means is that to predict future wins, start with a constant for all teams (5.51 wins), and then add only 0.31 wins for every prior win. In other words, three additional wins in Year N-1 aren’t even enough to project one full extra win in Year N! That’s a remarkable amount of regression to the mean, even if not necessarily surprising. ^[2]Since this has been studied to death. For those curious, the R^2 was just 0.094, another sign of how not valuable it is to just know how many games a team won in the prior year. [continue reading…]

References[+]

References
↑1	Just before the season, both Houston and Dallas had Vegas over/under odds of 7.5 wins, but the way the money lines were set up hinted that Vegas wanted to get more action on Dallas and the over.
↑2	Since this has been studied to death.

Tagged as: Regression

{ 1 comment }

Quarterback Records When Their Team Allows 21+ Points

by Chase Stuart on March 24, 2015

in Data Dump, Quarterbacks

Back in November, Cian Fahey tweeted me a simple question: “What is Alex Smith’s record in games where his D gives up 21 or more points?”

I made a note to run the numbers in the off-season, and guess what? It’s the off-season. Smith now holds a career record of 7-38-1 (including a 1-1 mark in the postseason) when his team ^[1]Yes, that is not the same thing as his defense. allows 21 or more points. That’s really bad, as it turns out. In fact, among quarterbacks who started such a game last year, only Ryan Fitzpatrick (5-43-0) has a worse career record. [continue reading…]

References[+]

References
↑1	Yes, that is not the same thing as his defense.

Tagged as: Alex Smith

{ 32 comments }

Career RANY/A Rankings

by Chase Stuart on March 23, 2015

in Quarterbacks, Statgeekery, Statistics

Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt is my preferred basic measurement of quarterback play. ANY/A is simply yards per attempt, but includes sacks and sack yardage lost, and provides a 20-yard bonus for touchdowns and a 45-yard penalty for interceptions.

RANY/A, or Relative ANY/A, measures a quarterback’s ANY/A average to league average. Let’s use Aaron Rodgers as an example. This past season, he threw 520 passes and gained 4,381 yards and 38 touchdowns, while throwing five interceptions and being sacked 28 times for 174 yards. That translates to an 8.65 ANY/A average, best in the NFL in 2014.

The league average rate in 2014 was a record-high 6.14 Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt; as a result, this means that Rodgers averaged 2.52 ANY/A above average, or had a RANY/A of +2.52. ^[1]Difference due to rounding. But that is just for one season. To measure Rodgers’ career RANY/A, we need to do that for every season of his career, and weight his RANY/A in each season by his number of dropbacks.

For example, Rodgers had 14.7% of his career dropbacks come in 2014, which means 14.7% of his career RANY/A is based off of the number +2.52. During his other MVP season in 2011, Rodgers had a RANY/A of 3.49 on just 10 fewer dropbacks; as a result, 14.4% of his career RANY/A is based off of +3.49. If you multiply his RANY/A in each year by the percentage of dropbacks he had in that season relative to his entire career, and sum those results, you will get a player’s career RANY/A. Here, take a look: [continue reading…]

References[+]

References
↑1	Difference due to rounding.

Tagged as: ANY/A, RANY/A

{ 8 comments }

Trivia: Leader in Rushing Yards per Game over a 3-year Period

by Chase Stuart on March 22, 2015

in Rushing

Last year, I built a trivia question around the leaders in receiving yards per games over a 3-year period. Today, the same thing but for rushing.

Trivia hint 1	Select Show
It’s not Jim Brown, Barry Sanders, or Terrell Davis.

Trivia hint 2	Select Show
His team was good, but not great, posting a 0.619 winning percentage during this period, as he averaged 117.7 rushing yards per game.

Trivia hint 3	Select Show
The years were 1973-1975.

The table below shows every player to average at least 75 rushing yards per game over a 3-year period, with a minimum of at least 100 carries in each season. [continue reading…]

{ 2 comments }

Trading Salary Cap Dollars for Draft Picks

by Chase Stuart on March 21, 2015

in Thought Experiments

On the Grantland NFL Podcast, Bill Barnwell brought up an interesting idea.

The Eagles wound up signing DeMarco Murray to a five-year, $40 million dollar deal. Philadelphia gave Murray a $5M signing bonus, which makes the math pretty simple. A signing bonus is paid at signing, just like the name implies. However, the salary cap hit is spread evenly over the life of the contract: Philadelphia’s cap space has to include $1M in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 as a result of giving Murray five million dollars at signing.

Now, if the Eagles traded Murray tomorrow, that cap hit would be accelerated. And, in fact, the team would have to take a $5M cap hit this year. This would be something of a win for the team that trades for Murray, though, as they would essentially be inheriting a five-year, $35M contract, in terms of both cash and salary cap dollars.

As Barnwell points out, here’s where a potential trade could happen. The Jaguars are flush with salary cap dollars: arguably too many, in fact. Let’s say that once Murray and the Eagles came to an agreement in principle, the parties instead decided that Jacksonville should be the team to sign Murray. And that signing bonus should be bumped up, too, to say, ten million dollars.

So Jacksonville signs Murray to a 5-year, $40M deal, with a $10M signing bonus. Then, the Jaguars turn around and trade Murray to the Eagles for X. What ends up happening is Jacksonville takes a $10M cap hit in 2015 and is out ten million dollars of real cash. The Eagles get Murray on a 5-year deal but now only have to pay him thirty million, in terms of both cash and salary cap dollars. And Philadelphia, depending otherwise on the structure of the contract, could then cut Murray without penalty at any time.

It’s a real win-win-win situation, but the key question is: What is X? If X was a 7th round draft pick, you could be sure that Philadelphia would jump at the chance to do this. If X was a first round pick, then I’m not so sure. It comes down to the question of how much is a draft pick worth in terms of both salary cap and real dollars?

That’s a really complicated question. I have some ideas, but I’d love to hear your thoughts on how to go about answering this question. And in some ways, your gut may be just as helpful as anything else. If you were the Jaguars, what’s the lowest pick you would take? If you were the Eagles, what’s the highest pick you would give?

{ 13 comments }

Bryan Frye: Quarterback Kneels, Spikes, and First Downs Data

by Chase Stuart on March 20, 2015

in Quarterbacks, Statistics

Today is a good day. Data collecting is difficult, but Bryan Frye has made life easier for all of us. Bryan, as you may recall, owns and operates his own great site at http://www.thegridfe.com/, where he focuses on NFL stats and history — and you should really check out his work. You can also view all of Bryan’s guest posts at Football Perspective at this link. You can follow him on twitter @LaverneusDingle. [continue reading…]

Tagged as: Bryan Frye, Guest Posts

{ 9 comments }

Guest Posts: Immobile Quarterbacks

by Chase Stuart on March 19, 2015

in History, Quarterbacks

Longtime commenter Jason Winter has chimed in with today’s guest post. Jason is a part-time video game journalist and full-time sports fan. You can read more of him at his blog: https://jasonwinter.wordpress.com/, and follow him on twitter at @winterinformal.

As always, we thank Jason for contributing.

A couple months ago, Ryan Lindley had a historically bad postseason game. If he’d thrown just seven more passes in the regular season, he would have made history in another way, too.

Lindley threw 93 passes last season, while recording precisely zero rushes. There was nary a scramble, quarterback sneak, or even a kneeldown on his record for the 2014 season. At 6’3”, 229 lbs., he hardly seems the scrambling type, but he was also only 25 and was, shall we say, far from the best passer in the league. You’d think he might have resorted to using his legs at least once.

Lindley’s 93 passes gives him the second-most passes in a season for a player who recorded zero rushes. The record-holder is a somewhat better-known name: the recently deceased Earl Morrall, who recorded 99 pass attempts with the Colts in 1969 without a carry. On the one hand, Morrall was 10 years older than Lindley, though he was a fairly effective and semi-regular runner throughout his career, averaging 3.7 yards on 235 rushes in 255 career games. Lindley has thus far totaled seven yards on four carries, all coming in 2012. [continue reading…]

Tagged as: Guest Posts, Jason Winter

{ 6 comments }

Chris Borland and Playing Only One NFL Season

by Chase Stuart on March 18, 2015

in History

Late Monday night, 49ers linebacker and tackling machine Chris Borland announced that he was retiring due to concerns over the toll a longer career would have on his mind and body. Anyone can give a #hottake on this situation, but not everyone can come up with a list of the top players who played for exactly one season in the NFL.

My initial inclination was that the two best one-season careers came from Dieter Brock and Art Weiner, with former Vikings head coach Bud Grant getting an honorary nomination (you can read why, here). Brock was a great quarterback in Canada for 11 seasons who finally joined the NFL as a 34-year-old rookie in 1985. How did that happen?

The ’84 Rams were quarterbacked by Vince Ferragamo and Jeff Kemp, but they were essentially quarterbacked by Eric Dickerson. ^[1]Los Angeles ranked last in pass attempts and second in rushing yards, as Dickerson set the single-season rushing record. The team signed Brock in the off-season, and then traded an aging Ferragamo and a third round pick to Buffalo for tight end Tony Hunter. ^[2]Who would finish second on the ’85 Rams in both receptions and receiving yards. Kemp would lose the job in camp to Brock, who produced perfectly average numbers ^[3]His ANY/A average of 4.9 matched the league average. while playing with an insanely talented lineup (in addition to Dickerson, those Rams had Henry Ellard and sent four offensive linemen to the Pro Bowl: Kent Hill, Doug Smith, Dennis Harrah, and Jackie Slater. The fifth starter, Irv Pankey, was in the middle of a successful ten year run as the Rams left tackle.) In the playoffs, though, Brock struggled mightily, going 16/53 for 116 yards with 0 TDs and 2 INTs, which culminated in a shutout loss to the Bears in the NFC Championship Game. That would be enough for anyone to call it a career. [continue reading…]

References[+]

References
↑1	Los Angeles ranked last in pass attempts and second in rushing yards, as Dickerson set the single-season rushing record.
↑2	Who would finish second on the ’85 Rams in both receptions and receiving yards.
↑3	His ANY/A average of 4.9 matched the league average.

Tagged as: Chris Borland, Dieter Brock

{ 7 comments }

Sam Bradford and Breaking Out At Age 27

by Chase Stuart on March 17, 2015

in Statgeekery

Bradford will move from St. Louis to Philadelphia via 195,000 eight-yard passes.

Bradford will be moving from St. Louis to Philadelphia, presumably via 195,000 eight-yard passes.

As a rookie at age 23, Sam Bradford averaged 4.73 Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt ^[1]Defined as Passing Yards + 20 * PTDs – 45 * INTs – Sack Yards Lost, all divided by total dropbacks (i.e., including sacks). at a time when the league average ANY/A was 5.73; as a result, we could say that Bradford had a Relative ANY/A of -1.00. The next year, he averaged 4.49 ANY/A with a RANY/A of -1.41. In 2012, he was at 5.64 and -0.30, and in seven games in ’13, he averaged 6.10 and +0.23. In other words, he’s been mostly below-average for his career.

In order to calculate his career RANY/A to-date, we need to weight his production by his number of dropbacks, which were 624 in ’10, 393 in ’11, 586 in 2012 and 277 in his last season of play. Do the math, and Bradford has a career RANY/A of -0.68 entering the 2015 season. But could he have a breakout year playing with Chip Kelly in Philadelphia?

I decided it would be interesting to look at the question from the reverse angle: how many of the quarterbacks that were really good at age 27 were not so good before that? I defined “really good” to mean a RANY/A of +1.00 on at least 224 dropbacks since 1970 (i.e., a quarterback who had an ANY/A average at least one full yard better than league average, had a significant number of dropbacks, and did so since the merger). I also required that such quarterback had at least 500 career dropbacks through age 26 (Bradford has 1,880 career dropbacks prior to the 2015 season.) There were 24 quarterbacks who met those criteria.

The best RANY/A season since the merger by an age 27 quarterback was Craig Morton; the Dallas quarterback hadn’t played much prior to 1970 (just 615 career dropbacks), but he had been effective in limited time before then (a career RANY/A of +1.58 prior to the ’70 season).

The second best age 27 season came from Boomer Esiason, in his MVP season of 1988. That year, he had 418 dropbacks and averaged 2.77 ANY/A better than the league average; prior to 1988, he had 1,531 career dropbacks, and a career RANY/A of +1.32. The table below shows that data for all 31 quarterbacks: [continue reading…]

References[+]

References
↑1	Defined as Passing Yards + 20 * PTDs – 45 * INTs – Sack Yards Lost, all divided by total dropbacks (i.e., including sacks).

Tagged as: Eagles, Rams, Sam Bradford

{ 7 comments }

Patrick Willis and the Hall of Fame

by Chase Stuart on March 16, 2015

in HOF

There are six modern players in the Hall of Fame who primarily played the inside linebacker position. ^[1]AV goes back to 1960, so I am defining modern as players who entered the league in that season or later. That means we have to exclude Sam Huff, Ray Nitschke, Bill George, Joe Schmidt, Mike … Continue reading Ray Lewis will be number seven. Brian Urlacher, who retired the same year as Lewis, will likely be number eight. And Patrick Willis is now very likely to be number nine.

There is only one knock on Willis’ star-studded career: he played in just 112 games, spanning 8 seasons. But let’s compare Willis to the other six modern HOF inside linebackers (Mike Singletary, Nick Buoniconti, Jack Lambert, Harry Carson, Willie Lanier, and Dick Butkus), Lewis, and Urlacher. The best way I can think of to compare defensive players is through Approximate Value, the all-encompassing metric created by Pro-Football-Reference.com. I’ll leave it to a different writer to debate the merits of whether AV is an appropriate metric by which to measure Willis.

Through seven seasons, Willis accumulated 104 points of AV: he recorded 16 points as a rookie, then 13, 19, 15, 16, 16, and 10 in 2013. Those other eight inside linebackers averaged 83 points through seven seasons, which puts Willis’ remarkable start to his career in the proper light. In fact, other than Willis, just three defensive players have recorded over 100 points of AV through seven seasons: Lawrence Taylor, Reggie White, and Alan Page. [continue reading…]

References[+]

References
↑1	AV goes back to 1960, so I am defining modern as players who entered the league in that season or later. That means we have to exclude Sam Huff, Ray Nitschke, Bill George, Joe Schmidt, Mike McCormack, Les Richter, Chuck Bednarik, and Bill Willis.

Tagged as: 49ers, Brian Urlacher, Inside Linebackers, Patrick Willis, Ray Lewis

{ 45 comments }

Running Backs are More Desirable than Kickers

by Chase Stuart on March 15, 2015

in Current Events

These guys like running backs

This time last year, the media chorus was signing that the running back position had been severely devalued in the modern NFL. Part of that, no doubt, was true: it is undeniable that less draft capital is being spent on running backs.

When I wrote about the 2014 Running Back Free Agent Market last year and how little they were being paid, I made sure to link to a pretty key point made by Jason Lisk at the Big Lead: the free agent class just wasn’t very good. Last year, the top free agent running backs were Toby Gerhart ($4.5M guaranteed, $7M over the first two years of his contract), Donald Brown ($4, $7), Rashad Jennings ($2.98, $5.25), Maurice Jones-Drew ($1.2, $5.0), Ben Tate ($2.5, $4.35), and Knowshon Moreno ($1.25, $4.25).

In case you forgot, here’s a quick summary of how those backs fared last year:

Gerhart averaged 3.2 yards per carry over 101 carries and was benched;
Brown averaged 2.6 YPC over 85 carries and was benched;
Jennings rushed for 639 yards in 11 games, missing 5 due to injury;
Jones-Drew averaged 2.2 YPC over 43 carries and is now retired;
Tate was cut after 106 carries and 8 games;and
Moreno was limited to 3 games due to injury.

This was an underwhelming class of free agent running backs that somehow fell far, far short of expectations. Then, Chris Johnson joined the class, and signed a two-year, $8M contract with $4M guaranteed. The Jets cut him after one season, where he gained 814 yards from scrimmage and scored two touchdowns in 16 games. [continue reading…]

Tagged as: Free Agency, Running backs, Salary Cap

{ 3 comments }

Trivia: Receiving Yards with Multiple Franchises

by Chase Stuart on March 14, 2015

in Trivia

Last year, I asked you about rushing yards with multiple franchises. In light of the trade of Brandon Marshall to the Jets, I thought it would be fun to look at the same question but for receiving yards.

First, I stumbled upon a bit of trivia that caught me by surprise. Only one player has recorded over 5,000 receiving yards with two teams. Some hints: [continue reading…]

Tagged as: Brandon Marshall, Weekend Trivia

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Checkdowns: Worst Leaders in Team Receiving Yards

by Chase Stuart on March 13, 2015

in Checkdowns, Totally Useless, Trivia

In the comments to this post, Ryan noted that Mike Alstott led the Bucs with 557 receiving yards in 1996, but it was the fewest yards of any player who led his team in receiving yards that season. And in 1997, Karl Williams led Tampa Bay with just 486 receiving yards, also the fewest of any player who led his team in receiving yards that year.

Which made Ryan wonder: why isn’t there a list of the lowest team-leading receiving total across the league for each season? That’s a good question, so I went ahead and generated it for every season since 1950. For example, Jacksonville’s undrafted rookie Allen Hurns led the Jaguars with 677 receiving yards in 2014, but every other team had at least one player with more yards. [continue reading…]

{ 5 comments }

Darrelle Revis Returns

by Chase Stuart on March 12, 2015

in Current Events, Team Building

Welcome home, @Revis24.https://t.co/OADHnBffxH

— New York Jets (@nyjets) March 12, 2015

There are legitimate criticisms one could identify, and they aren’t just nits. Darrelle Revis will turn 30 in July, and his contract far outpaces that of every other cornerback in the NFL. He is getting $39M guaranteed at a rate of $7.8M in guaranteed money per season, numbers that are more than 50% higher than every other corner. He will count for $48M against the cap over the next three years. Nobody knows how Revis will age, but he’s had one ACL surgery and he’s never been a player with top notch speed, which means he can’t really afford to lose a step (quick, think how many cornerbacks — as opposed to wide receivers — you can think of that get by on veteran guile).

Revis is all about Revis, which is a crime in some circles. He’s not loyal, and is now switching teams — incredibly — for the third consecutive season. The Jets were one of the worst teams in football by any measure last year, and with no clear answer at quarterback and holes throughout the roster, squarely fall within the definition of a “rebuilding team.” And writing blank checks for 30-year-old cornerbacks is not exactly part of Rebuilding 101. [continue reading…]

Tagged as: Darrelle Revis, Welcome Home

{ 12 comments }

1,000 Days

by Chase Stuart on March 11, 2015

in Announcements

1,000 days ago, Football Perspective opened its doors. There has been a post every day since then.

So while yesterday was the most exciting day in the NFL in a month, we will be taking the rest of the day off.

{ 7 comments }

Ndamukong Suh and First-Team All-Pros Switching Teams

by Chase Stuart on March 10, 2015

in Current Events

The contract Miami is willing to give this guy is kind of nuts

Ndamukong Suh will be signing a 114 million dollar contract with the Dolphins today, with approximately $60M of that money guaranteed. Suh has often been compared to Reggie White, which makes some sense given that each player possessed rare a rare combination of size/strength/agility for any human being, and both were defensive linemen. Recently, Suh has been compared to White in another way, as some have referred to Suh as the best player to hit free agency since White.

Peyton Manning, of course, was a free agent a mere two years ago, but let’s not let facts get in the way of narrative. Suh was named a first-team All-Pro by the Associated Press last year; as it turns out, 25 players were so named between 1992 and 2014, and then switched teams the following offseason.

The table below shows all 25 players. Here’s how to read it. Suh is a defensive tackle, and his last year in Detroit was in 2014 (i.e., Year N). That season, he recorded 17 points of AV according to PFR. As of September 1st of 2015 (i.e., Year N+1), Suh will be 28.7 years old. His new team is Miami, and the final column shows how many points of AV each player produced in his first season with a new team. [continue reading…]

Tagged as: All-Pros, Dolphins, Free Agency, Ndamukong Suh

{ 4 comments }

Guest Post: An Argument For HOF Expansion

by Chase Stuart on March 9, 2015

in HOF

Bryan Frye is back with another fun guest post. Bryan, as you may recall, owns and operates his own great site at http://www.thegridfe.com/, where he focuses on NFL stats and history. You can view all of Bryan’s guest posts at Football Perspective at this link. You can follow him on twitter @LaverneusDingle.

What makes a Hall of Fame player in your opinion? Is it being in some arbitrary percentile grouping at his position? Perhaps it is a combination of stats and memorable moments. How about playoff performance? Maybe you give extra credit for champions. I certainly don’t know, and my personal Hall likely wouldn’t resemble yours. Any of those criteria you prefer, however, calls for an attendant expansion of the Hall of Fame. ^[1]Thanks to Adam Harstad, who was a great sounding board for my ideas and who probably helped keep this from being twice as long.

Arbitrary Percentile

One criterion people use to determine if a player belongs in the Hall of Fame discussion is his place relative to his contemporaries. If a quarterback or halfback is at or near the top of the league for a good portion of his career, he is almost guaranteed a bust in Canton. ^[2]The same can’t be said for some positions. I don’t hear many people talking about the legacies of Kevin Williams, Nick Mangold, or Lance Briggs. I’ve heard some analysts argue that the Hall should be reserved for the top 3-5% of players. If the top 3-5% (or any arbitrary percentage you choose) is your cutoff, then it follows that induction class sizes should increase to accommodate the increase in players. The 90th percentile of twelve starting quarterbacks includes one quarterback, whereas the 90th percentile of 32 starting quarterbacks includes three quarterbacks. Since the league has nearly thrice the teams it had fifty years ago, it makes sense to have a concomitant increase in class sizes. [continue reading…]

References[+]

References
↑1	Thanks to Adam Harstad, who was a great sounding board for my ideas and who probably helped keep this from being twice as long.
↑2	The same can’t be said for some positions. I don’t hear many people talking about the legacies of Kevin Williams, Nick Mangold, or Lance Briggs.

Tagged as: Bryan Frye, Guest Posts

{ 37 comments }

Trivia: St. Louis Rams and Receiver Turnover

by Chase Stuart on March 8, 2015

in Receiving

From 2000 to 2008, Torry Holt led the Rams in receiving yards in every season. But since then, St. Louis has gone to the other extreme: in 2009, the leading receiver was Donnie Avery, followed by Danny Amendola in ’10, Brandon Lloyd in ’11, Chris Givens in ’12, Jared Cook in ’13, and, believe it or not, Kenny Britt in 2014. That’s seven different leading receivers for St. Louis over the last seven years. If that continues in 2015, the Rams will become just the 4th team since 1950 to have eight different leading receivers in eight seasons.

Now, no team has ever done it in nine straight years. So, today’s trivia question: Can you guess any of the three teams to run this streak for eight seasons? [continue reading…]

Tagged as: Weekend Trivia

{ 2 comments }

Trivia: Cleveland Browns and Quarterback Turnover

by Chase Stuart on March 7, 2015

in Trivia

In 2002, the Browns leading in passing yards was Tim Couch. It was Kelly Holcomb the next year, Jeff Garcia in ’04, Trent Dilfer the next season, and then Charlie Frye in 2006. Then, Derek Anderson led the team in passing yards in back-to-back years! Brady Quinn led the team in passing yards in ’08, and then Colt McCoy was the top quarterback for two years in a row. But we’re back to musical chairs in Cleveland, with Brandon Weeden leading in ’12, Jason Campbell in ’13, and Brian Hoyer last year. In 2015, it looks like either Johnny Manziel or Josh McCown will hold that honor.

That means over this 14-year period, the Browns will have had 12 different quarterbacks lead the team in passing yards. That, as you might suspect, is freakin’ insane, and will set an NFL record. Since Couch led the team in passing yards in ’01, it means that Cleveland has had 11 different quarterbacks lead the team in passing yards over the last 14 years. That’s tied for the record. Which brings us to today’s trivia question: can you name the only other team(s) to have such quarterback turnover?

Trivia hint 1	Select Show
This is not much of a trick question: my hunch is you’ll be able to figure this one out.

Trivia hint 2	Select Show
The team had 11 different leading quarterbacks from 1993-2006, 1994-2007, and 1996-2009.

Trivia hint 3	Select Show
Jason Campbell did play for this team, too, but he wasn’t one of its passing leaders.

Click 'Show' for the Answer	Select Show
The Chicago Bears. Here are the team leaders in passing yards from each season beginning in 1993: Jim Harbaugh, Steve Walsh, Erik Kramer, Dave Krieg, Kramer, Kramer, Shane Matthews, Cade McNown, Jim Miller, Kordell Stewart, Chad Hutchinson, Kyle Orton, Rex Grossman, Brian Griese, Orton, Jay Cutler

Tagged as: Browns, Weekend Trivia

{ 8 comments }

The Emmitt Smith Rant

by Chase Stuart on March 6, 2015

in Rant, Rushing

Emmitt Smith was a product of the system, the one where they gave him the ball.

One of Doug Drinen’s first posts at the old PFR Blog was titled, “The Emmitt Smith Rant.” That was now nine years ago, and while not much has changed regarding Smith’s career since 2006, how many people other than me still remember that old post? So I’ve decided to revive Doug’s old post, with his permission, of course.

With greatness comes backlash, and every great player has collected his share of detractors. And while Football Perspective readers don’t underrate him, it feels as though Emmitt Smith has been remembered by a significant number of football fans as a less-than-special running back. He played with Hall of Famers at quarterback and wide receiver, with Pro Bowlers at fullback, tight end, and several spots on the offensive line. As a result, it’s understandable that some diminish the peak numbers he produced during his prime.

And yes, he did put up some monster numbers during his prime. From 1991 to 1995, Smith was historically dominant. Consider that among all running backs during their ages 22 through 26 seasons (i.e., Smith from ’91 to ’95), he rushed for 8,019 yards; the next closest player during those ages was LaDainian Tomlinson with 7,361. Smith also rushed for 85 touchdowns: Tomlinson (72) is the only other player within 20 rushing touchdowns of Smith during those ages.

But let’s say you don’t want to give Smith “full credit” for those years. What about what he did from 1998 to 2001? During those years, Chan Gailey and Dave Campo coached the team for two seasons each. Dallas went 28-36 during those years, and the passing attack ranked 17th in Net Yards per Attempt. In other words, these weren’t the Troy Aikman/Michael Irvin Cowboys. And while Larry Allen was still around, the offensive line was more name than substance at this point.

At the start of this four-year period, Smith was 29 years old. Through age 28, Smith had recorded 2,595 carries in the regular season, ^[1]In addition to 318 more in the playoffs. the most of any player through age 28 in NFL history. So you’ve got a situation where a running back had been worn down to an absurd degree, stuck on a mediocre team and on a mediocre offense. If Smith was not a special back, how would he do? [continue reading…]

References[+]

References
↑1	In addition to 318 more in the playoffs.

Tagged as: Cowboys, Emmitt Smith

{ 21 comments }

Kansas ILB Ben Heeney Produced Best 3-Cone Drill at 2015 Combine

by Chase Stuart on March 5, 2015

in College

Here’s how NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein described Kansas inside linebacker Ben Heeney:

Undersized inside linebacker with a big motor and willingness to take chances. Lacks the athleticism to recover from mistakes in the running game and is too tight to cover in space against the pass.

But at the combine, Heeney didn’t appear out of his athletic class. He ranked a respectable 49th in the 40 yard dash and 58th in the broad jump, while performing at perfectly average levesl in the vertical jump and bench press.

But it’s the 3-cone drill where Heeney starred. Based on my research from last year, the best-fit formula to project a prospect’s performance in the 3-cone drill is:

Expected 3-Cone = 6.98 – 0.023 * Height + 0.0081 * Weight

For every 12.3 pounds of weight, a player’s expected 3-cone time increases by 0.1 seconds. Height, meanwhile, is positively correlated: taller players tend to perform better in this drill, which is probably due to stride length/having to take fewer steps. Heeney, as Zierlein noted, is a bit undersized at inside linebacker: he weighed in at 231 pounds and stood at six feet even (though that combination has worked out well for other inside linebackers).

Given that height/weight combination, we would expect Heeney to complete the 3-cone drill in 7.20 seconds. But Heeney finished it just 6.68 seconds, 0.52 seconds better than expected. According to NFLSavant.com, Heeney is just the 9th inside linebacker in combine history to break 7 seconds in the 3-cone drill; Prior to Heeney, the top two times came in 2012, when undrafted Chris Galippo ran it in 6.90, and Luke Kuechley did it in 6.92.

The table below shows the results of all 207 participants in the 3-cone drill at the combine. Thanks to NFLSavant.com for the data. [continue reading…]

Tagged as: Combine

{ 1 comment }

Guest Post: Touchdown Pass Vultures

by Chase Stuart on March 4, 2015

in Passing

Adam Steele is back for another guest post. And, as always, we thank him for that. You can view all of Adam’s posts here.

During the 2014 season, Chase noted that the league-wide touchdown pass rate was the highest it had been since the NFL merger. The final few weeks of the season dragged down the average a little bit, but 2014 still checks in as the most touchdown pass friendly year in NFL history. In response, a few commenters cited the possibility that teams were tallying more TD passes by sacrificing TD runs, which is a logical conclusion considering the very low rate of rushing touchdowns in 2014 (teams averaged 0.74 per game, the lowest since 1999). Today, I’m going to look into this further and see if teams really are inflating their passing TD numbers at the expense of the run.

First, we have to establish a historical baseline, and I did this by looking at every NFL season since 1950. ^[1]AFL numbers were not included. In that time frame, teams averaged 2.26 offensive touchdowns per game, with 1.35 of those coming via the pass and 0.91 via the run. Translated into a ratio, offensive touchdowns have historically been 59.6% passing and 40.4% rushing. That 59.6% is the key number here, as it will be the baseline ratio for expected passing touchdowns. Below is a chart containing relevant information for each year since 1950. The “PaTD %” column represents the percentage of offensive touchdowns in a given year that were scored via the pass, and the “Inflation” column compares that year’s passing TD ratio with the historical average of 59.6%.

Year	PassTD/G	RushTD/G	OffTD/G	PaTD %	Inflation
2014	1.58	0.74	2.32	68%	14.1%
2013	1.57	0.8	2.37	66.2%	11.1%
1965	1.57	1.01	2.57	60.9%	2.2%
1963	1.54	0.97	2.51	61.4%	3%
1962	1.53	1.09	2.62	58.5%	-1.9%
1952	1.51	1.02	2.53	59.7%	0.2%
2012	1.48	0.78	2.26	65.4%	9.7%
2010	1.47	0.78	2.25	65.3%	9.6%
1958	1.47	1.22	2.69	54.5%	-8.5%
1954	1.47	1.06	2.52	58.1%	-2.5%
2011	1.46	0.78	2.24	65.1%	9.2%
1987	1.45	0.86	2.31	62.9%	5.5%
1961	1.45	1.05	2.5	58.2%	-2.4%
1967	1.45	0.98	2.42	59.7%	0.1%
1969	1.44	0.88	2.32	62.1%	4.2%
2004	1.43	0.81	2.24	63.8%	7%
1964	1.42	0.99	2.41	58.9%	-1.2%
1960	1.42	1.03	2.45	57.9%	-2.9%
1950	1.41	1.33	2.74	51.4%	-13.7%
2007	1.41	0.75	2.16	65.1%	9.2%
1983	1.4	0.98	2.37	58.9%	-1.2%
1951	1.39	1.22	2.6	53.3%	-10.5%
2009	1.39	0.84	2.22	62.3%	4.6%
1995	1.38	0.8	2.18	63.3%	6.2%
1984	1.37	0.92	2.29	60%	0.7%
1998	1.37	0.79	2.16	63.5%	6.5%
1968	1.37	0.9	2.27	60.4%	1.4%
1959	1.37	1.1	2.47	55.3%	-7.1%
2002	1.36	0.9	2.25	60.1%	0.9%
1980	1.35	0.96	2.31	58.4%	-1.9%
1999	1.34	0.73	2.07	64.7%	8.6%
1985	1.33	0.99	2.32	57.4%	-3.6%
1966	1.33	0.95	2.29	58.3%	-2.1%
1981	1.32	0.98	2.3	57.3%	-3.9%
1953	1.31	1.17	2.49	52.8%	-11.4%
1986	1.31	0.9	2.2	59.4%	-0.4%
1996	1.3	0.76	2.06	63.2%	6.1%
1994	1.3	0.76	2.06	63.2%	6%
1989	1.3	0.87	2.17	60%	0.7%
1997	1.29	0.8	2.09	61.6%	3.4%
1990	1.28	0.84	2.13	60.4%	1.4%
2001	1.28	0.74	2.02	63.5%	6.6%
2000	1.28	0.83	2.11	60.6%	1.7%
2003	1.28	0.83	2.11	60.5%	1.5%
1982	1.27	0.92	2.19	58.1%	-2.5%
2006	1.27	0.83	2.09	60.4%	1.4%
2008	1.26	0.93	2.19	57.6%	-3.4%
2005	1.26	0.84	2.1	59.9%	0.5%
1955	1.25	1.15	2.4	52%	-12.7%
1988	1.24	0.95	2.19	56.7%	-4.8%
1979	1.2	1.09	2.29	52.5%	-11.9%
1975	1.19	1.13	2.32	51.2%	-14.1%
1957	1.18	1.1	2.28	51.7%	-13.3%
1970	1.17	0.8	1.98	59.3%	-0.5%
1993	1.15	0.68	1.83	63%	5.7%
1992	1.15	0.74	1.9	60.8%	2%
1991	1.14	0.8	1.94	58.8%	-1.3%
1956	1.13	1.24	2.37	47.5%	-20.3%
1972	1.11	1	2.11	52.6%	-11.7%
1976	1.1	1.06	2.16	51.1%	-14.3%
1971	1.07	0.91	1.98	53.9%	-9.6%
1978	1.04	1.01	2.06	50.8%	-14.8%
1973	1.04	0.91	1.95	53.4%	-10.4%
1974	1.03	1	2.04	50.7%	-14.8%
1977	0.99	0.9	1.89	52.4%	-12%

As you can see, 2014 really did feature highly inflated passing TD totals, with 68.0% of offensive touchdowns coming through the air. This trend began in 2010, stabilized for four years, then jumped again significantly last season. The most obvious explanation is that teams are now passing more in general, so it would follow that they would also pass more to score touchdowns. But that’s only part of the story, as the rate of passing touchdowns has far outstripped the rate of overall called passes.

The main culprit appears to be goal line play selection, which has heavily favored the pass in recent seasons. Interestingly, from 1997-2009, there was no trend whatsoever, with passing TD ratios jumping around randomly from season to season. From 1980-1994, passing TD ratios were slightly lower, yet still very random. Even during the dead ball era of the 1970s, when the rules made passing far more difficult than it is today, teams still scored more often with passes than they did with runs. In fact, the famous 1956 season was the only time in the last 65 years where teams scored more rushing touchdowns than passing touchdowns.

But here’s what fascinates me the most: Despite the huge increases in total yardage and passing efficiency in recent years, offensive touchdowns have increased very little. In 2014, teams scored only 0.06 more offensive touchdowns than the historical average. In fact, the top 15 seasons for offensive TD production all came before the merger! If the NFL had been playing a 16 game schedule in the ’50s and ’60s, TD pass totals would be very similar to what we see today, and rushing TD totals would be higher.

So how does all this affect touchdown records for various quarterbacks? Since the 16 game schedule began in 1978, there have been 51 teams who scored at least 50 offensive touchdowns in a given season. Of those 51 teams, 33 of them had passing TD ratios above the historical average of 59.6%. In this chart, I list the primary QB, although the numbers represent team totals. The “Adjusted Pass TD” column is calculated by multiplying offensive touchdowns by .596, calculating how many TD passes would have been thrown by sticking with the historical average ratio. The “Change” column represents the difference in adjusted TD passes compared to actual TD passes, basically measuring how many TD pass were vultured from the run game.

Year	Team	QB	PassTD	RushTD	OffTD	PaTD%	Adj PaTD	Change	Inflation
2013	Broncos	Manning	55	16	71	77%	42	-13	30%
2007	Patriots	Brady	50	17	67	75%	40	-10	25.2%
1984	Dolphins	Marino	49	18	67	73%	40	-9	22.7%
2011	Packers	Rodgers	51	12	63	81%	38	-13	35.8%
2000	Rams	Warner	37	26	63	59%	38	1	-1.4%
2011	Saints	Brees	46	16	62	74%	37	-9	24.5%
2004	Colts	Manning	51	10	61	84%	36	-15	40.3%
1998	49ers	Young	41	19	60	68%	36	-5	14.7%
1994	49ers	Young	37	23	60	62%	36	-1	3.5%
1981	Chargers	Fouts	34	26	60	57%	36	2	-4.9%
2012	Patriots	Brady	34	25	59	58%	35	1	-3.3%
1983	Redskins	Theismann	29	30	59	49%	35	6	-17.5%
1998	Vikings	Cunningham	41	17	58	71%	35	-6	18.6%
1998	Broncos	Elway	32	26	58	55%	35	3	-7.4%
2004	Chiefs	Green	27	31	58	47%	35	8	-21.9%
2011	Patriots	Brady	39	18	57	68%	34	-5	14.8%
2001	Rams	Warner	37	20	57	65%	34	-3	8.9%
1985	Chargers	Fouts	37	20	57	65%	34	-3	8.9%
2010	Patriots	Brady	37	19	56	66%	33	-4	10.9%
1980	Cowboys	White	30	26	56	54%	33	3	-10.1%
2006	Chargers	Rivers	24	32	56	43%	33	9	-28.1%
2003	Chiefs	Green	24	32	56	43%	33	9	-28.1%
1986	Dolphins	Marino	46	9	55	84%	33	-13	40.4%
1999	Rams	Warner	42	13	55	76%	33	-9	28.1%
2014	Broncos	Manning	40	15	55	73%	33	-7	22%
1991	Bills	Kelly	39	16	55	71%	33	-6	19%
2009	Saints	Brees	34	21	55	62%	33	-1	3.7%
1993	49ers	Young	29	26	55	53%	33	4	-11.5%
1988	Bengals	Esiason	28	27	55	51%	33	5	-14.6%
2008	Saints	Brees	34	20	54	63%	32	-2	5.7%
2005	Seahawks	Hasselbeck	25	29	54	46%	32	7	-22.3%
2012	Saints	Brees	43	10	53	81%	32	-11	36.2%
2014	Cowboys	Romo	37	16	53	70%	32	-5	17.2%
2009	Vikings	Favre	34	19	53	64%	32	-2	7.7%
1984	49ers	Montana	32	21	53	60%	32	0	1.3%
2004	Chargers	Brees	29	24	53	55%	32	3	-8.2%
2002	Chiefs	Green	27	26	53	51%	32	5	-14.5%
2014	Packers	Rodgers	38	14	52	73%	31	-7	22.6%
1983	Cowboys	White	31	21	52	60%	31	0	0%
2014	Colts	Luck	42	9	51	82%	30	-12	38.2%
2013	Eagles	Foles	32	19	51	63%	30	-2	5.3%
2007	Colts	Manning	32	19	51	63%	30	-2	5.3%
1985	Bengals	Esiason	31	20	51	61%	30	-1	2%
1991	Redskins	Rypien	30	21	51	59%	30	0	-1.3%
1992	49ers	Young	29	22	51	57%	30	1	-4.6%
2000	Raiders	Gannon	28	23	51	55%	30	2	-7.9%
2011	Lions	Stafford	41	9	50	82%	30	-11	37.6%
2007	Cowboys	Romo	36	14	50	72%	30	-6	20.8%
2003	Packers	Favre	32	18	50	64%	30	-2	7.4%
1985	Dolphins	Marino	31	19	50	62%	30	-1	4%
2009	Packers	Rodgers	30	20	50	60%	30	0	0.7%

I have plenty of thoughts about this chart, but I’m more interested to see what the readers think. Does this analysis change your opinion of any of these great QB seasons?

References[+]

References
↑1	AFL numbers were not included.

Tagged as: Adam Steele, Guest Posts

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Bud Dupree Topped Byron Jones in the Broad Jump at 2015 Combine

by Chase Stuart on March 3, 2015

in College

Connecticut cornerback Byron Jones made history at the 2015 combine, with an unbelievable broad jump of 147 inches. And the video was every bit as impressive as it sounds. Keep in mind that no other player in combine history has ever even hit the 140 inch mark, giving Jones a full 8″ lead on every other broad jump ever recorded in Indianapolis.

On the other hand, Alvin “Bud” Dupree did something special, too. Remember, the Kentucky outside linebacker weighed in at 269 pounds, and he managed to jump 138 inches. In combine history, no other player over 260 pounds has jumped more than 129 inches; lower the weight to over 250 pounds, and the best mark after Dupree is 131 inches. So the Wildcats edge rusher was really in a class of his own, too.

There were 249 prospects in Indianapolis who performed in the broad jump. I performed a regression analysis using weight and height as my inputs, since both variables were highly significant in predicting the broad jump. Here is the best-fit formula: [continue reading…]

Tagged as: Combine

{ 7 comments }

Greatest Running Back of All Time: Wisdom of Crowds Recap

by Chase Stuart on March 2, 2015

in G.O.A.T., Rushing

The GOAT.

On February 20th, Football Perspective hosted a “Wisdom of Crowds” election with respect to the question: Who is the Greatest Running Back of All Time?™ Well, Football Perspective guest commenter Adam Steele offered to count the ballots, and I’ll chime in with some commentary.

There were 41 ballots entered, with each person ranking his or her top 20 running backs. The scoring system was simple: 20 points for a 1st place vote, 19 for a 2nd place vote, and so on. As it turns out, the race for the top spot was heated, with three players running away from the pack.

This chart is sortable by total points, points per ballot (using 41 as the denominator), GOAT votes, top 5 votes, and top 10 votes. In the interest of statistical significance, a player needed to appear on at least five ballots in order to be ranked in the table below. [continue reading…]

Tagged as: Adam Steele

{ 113 comments }