by Chase Stuart
on November 3, 2015
The Jets are 4-3, and it would not be an exaggeration to say that the team’s success is heavily tied to New York’s ability to control games on the ground. The Jets running backs have rushed for over 150 yards in three games this year, wins over Washington (190), Miami (173), and Cleveland (155). The Jets have also had three games with 60 or fewer rushing yards, losses against New England (60), Philadelphia (34), and Oakland (28). The seventh game, a win over the Colts, saw the Jets running backs operate at a reasonably effective pace of 26 carries for 95 yards.
In other words, when the Jets run well, they win, and when they don’t, they lose. That sounds simplistic, and it is: it’s a bit of an over exaggeration, although one grounded in some truth. In general, teams run more when they win — or, more precisely, when they have favorable Game Scripts — and run less often when they have negative Game Scripts. And the Jets games have had pretty strong Game Scripts in the four wins, scoring a +6.1 against Washington, +6.5 against Cleveland, +7.3 against the Colts, and +11.9 against Miami. Those are the sorts of games where it’s easy to produce good numbers, and Jets running backs have averaged 153.25 rushing yards in these four wins.
The losses to Philadelphia (-10.6) and Oakland (I haven’t calculated it yet, but it will certainly be in the double digits) were ugly; the Patriots game (-0.6) was the only game that unfolded with a neutral Game Script. Still, in three losses, the Jets running backs have rushed 54 times for just 122 yards. So the causation arrow isn’t pointing only one way here: the Jets are winning when they run more effectively, and losing when they aren’t, on top of whatever bonus the raw totals get out of Game Scripts. [continue reading…]
Tagged as:
Jets
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by Chase Stuart
on November 2, 2015
Barnidge even scored against the Broncos… twice
For seven years, Gary Barnidge was one of the hundreds of nondescript players in the NFL. He played in 92 games for two teams, but logged just 25 starts. He caught 44 passes for 603 yards, an average of less than 100 yards a season, with just three touchdowns. He averaged 6.6 yards per game during this seven-season stretch in his 20s.
But Barnidge turned 30 on September 22nd, and then transformed into one of the most dominant tight ends in the NFL. Barnidge has played in six games since his 30th birthday, and has caught 36 passes for 512 yards and 6 touchdowns.
Let’s say Barnidge finishes the season with 1,000 yards in 16 games. That would mean his career average in receiving yards per game will have jumped from 6.6 to 14.8, a pretty remarkable increase for a player in his eighth season. In fact, Barnidge would become just the third player to have his career receiving yards per game double at any point after their fifth season in a year where they gained at least 500 receiving yards.
The last player to do so is Jim Jensen, a utility football player for the Dolphins who saw time at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end in his career. In his 20s, he totaled just 414 receiving yards in seven seasons, but he broke out in 1988 with 58 catches for 652 yards and five touchdowns. [continue reading…]
Tagged as:
Browns,
Flukes,
Gary Barnidge,
Jo-Jo Townsell,
Pat Curran
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by Chase Stuart
on November 1, 2015
As they did last week, the Clemson Tigers top the SRS ratings through nine weeks. Little changed in the top five, this week, or well, anywhere in the top 25. In fact, none of the teams in the top 20 of the SRS last week lost in week nine. The highest ranked teams to lose were West Virginia (#21) and Cal (#22), but both of those teams lost to higher-ranked teams (TCU and USC, respectively).
As a result, the standings will look pretty similar to what we saw last week. Below are the SRS ratings through nine weeks. As always thanks to Dr. Peter R. Wolfe for providing the weekly game logs. [continue reading…]
Tagged as:
NCAA SRS
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