Last night, Aaron Rodgers threw a walk-off, game-winning Hail Mary to Richard Rodgers to beat the Lions. According to Elias, it’s the longest game-winning Hail Mary in NFL history. And yet, perhaps most incredible part of the play was not how long it was, but high high it was:
On November 10th, 1985, the Eagles hosted the Atlanta Falcons. Philadelphia jumped out to a 17-0 lead, but the Falcons scored 17 points in the 4th quarter to force overtime. Then, with the Eagles backed up inside their own 1-yard line, Ron Jaworski hit Mike Quick for a 99-yard touchdown. Here is video of the play.
At the end of October, the Packers were 6-0 and Super Bowl front-runners. Little has gone right for the team since: Green Bay has won only one of their last five games, with the passing game being the biggest reason for the team’s struggles. The Packers have been defined by Aaron Rodgers, but the efficiency of the passing attack has declined significantly since the start of the season. Rodgers’s adjusted net yards per attempt has been trending in the wrong direction.
When the Lions met the Packers in Week 10, they were 1-7 and had not won on the road against the Packers since 1991. The Packers were 10.5-point favorites, but Detroit was victorious that day, marking the largest upset of the season to date. The Lions followed that win up with two more.
Many games are decided in the final minutes. For proof, look no further than the Baltimore Ravens. While the team is just 4-7, Baltimore has played a truly remarkable set of games. Every Ravens game this year has been either tied in the final two minutes, or seen the trailing team possess the ball in a one-possession game. The Ravens won their last two games on the final play; another two Ravens games went to overtime. A fifth game, against Jacksonville, saw Baltimore lose on the final play of the game, and losses to Arizona and San Francisco were decided in the final 15 seconds.
It has been a remarkable roller coaster ride for Ravens fans. It also means the team’s record can be a bit deceiving.
Games decided in the final few minutes can be a bit of a crap shoot: the difference between winning and losing can down down to one play, and often, one play that’s the result of an unsustainable set of factors. Conversely, if a team can knock out its opponent early, that’s a pretty good indicator of team strength. So what’s the best way to measure how early (or late) in games the winning team puts the game away?
As I wrote on Sunday, the college football playoff looks pretty clear, absent any big upsets on Saturday.
One spot will go to Oklahoma, the 11-1 champions of the Big 12. The Sooners have been an early favorite of the SRS: OU ranked 2nd in the first edition, produced after five weeks, and regained that #2 spot three weeks later, despite the loss to Texas in the interim. The Sooners finished the regular season as the #1 team in the SRS.
Alabama, at 11-1, is the 2nd-ranked team in the SRS. The Crimson Tide represent the establishment in college football, and that title is well-earned. Alabama is great every year, and this season is no different. A win against Florida in the SEC Championship Game seems predestined: the SRS makes ‘Bama a 13-point favorite, while the Vegas line is up to 17.5 points (likely because Florida is playing worse now than it was in the beginning of the year, with an eligible Will Grier). [continue reading…]
Week 12 went down as the most pass-happy week of the season. Most weeks this year have fluctuated with a pass ratio in the neighborhood of 59%, but teams attempted passes on over 62% of all plays in week 12. As a result, a number of teams — New England, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Cleveland, New Orleans, Miami, the Giants, and Detroit — all graded as very pass-happy. On the flip side, just two teams (the Eagles and Vikings) were run-heavy.
Brock Osweiler, shockingly, helped the Broncos pull off one of the biggest comebacks of the year. Denver trailed New England 21-7 in the 4th quarter, and you simply don’t expect the Patriots to give up a lead of that size. But the Broncos, powered by both Osweiler and the running game, pulled off the win despite having a -7.1 Game Script, making it the third largest comeback (as measured by Game Script) of 2015.
The other thing that stood out this week: there were a lot of blowouts! Five teams won handily, with 18 point margins of victory and double-digit game scripts. In addition, Washington won with a 9.4 Game Script, although the Giants made a game of it at the end. Below are the week 12 Game Scripts data! [continue reading…]
