Matt Ryan is having a career year, in a not disimilar way from what Carson Palmer did last season. Thanks to a superstar receiver and an offensive coaching staff that is drawing rave reviews, Ryan is having the sort of once-in-a-career year expected from a top-3 pick. In fact, Ryan is even ahead of Palmer’s pace from last year:
| Passing | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Age | Year | Lg | Tm | G | W | L | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Yds | TD | Int | Rate | Sk | Yds | ANY/A | ||
| 1 | Matt Ryan | 31 | 2016 | NFL | ATL | 6 | 4 | 2 | 143 | 210 | 68.10 | 2075 | 15 | 3 | 117.9 | 15 | 98 | 9.52 | |
| 2 | Carson Palmer | 35 | 2015 | NFL | CRD | 6 | 4 | 2 | 125 | 193 | 64.77 | 1737 | 14 | 5 | 106.9 | 8 | 42 | 8.71 | |
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
The Falcons ranked 17th in ANY/A last year, and 1st this year; Atlanta’s offensive ANY/A has jumped by 3.34 ANY/A, the biggest leap in the league. You might think the Jets — 14th in ANY/A last year, 32nd this year — would have the biggest decline, but New York’s dip is only the second worst. That’s because Palmer, who had a very lofty perch from which to fall, has been far below-average this season:
| Rk | Team | 2015 Off ANY/A | 2015 Rk | 2016 Off ANY/A | 2016 Rk | Off ANY/A Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlanta Falcons | 6.18 | 17 | 9.52 | 1 | 3.34 |
| 2 | Dallas Cowboys | 4.99 | 32 | 8.05 | 3 | 3.05 |
| 3 | Minnesota Vikings | 5.62 | 24 | 7.71 | 5 | 2.09 |
| 4 | Philadelphia Eagles | 5.66 | 23 | 7.22 | 8 | 1.56 |
| 5 | New England Patriots | 7.48 | 4 | 8.93 | 2 | 1.45 |
| 6 | San Diego Chargers | 6.51 | 11 | 7.84 | 4 | 1.32 |
| 7 | Indianapolis Colts | 5.14 | 31 | 6.21 | 17 | 1.07 |
| 8 | Oakland Raiders | 6.16 | 18 | 7.21 | 9 | 1.06 |
| 9 | Detroit Lions | 6.28 | 16 | 7.33 | 7 | 1.06 |
| 10 | Tennessee Titans | 5.35 | 26 | 6.30 | 16 | 0.95 |
| 11 | Los Angeles Rams | 5.15 | 29 | 6.06 | 20 | 0.90 |
| 12 | Denver Broncos | 5.14 | 30 | 5.94 | 22 | 0.80 |
| 13 | New Orleans Saints | 7.25 | 5 | 7.62 | 6 | 0.37 |
| 14 | Cleveland Browns | 5.50 | 25 | 5.75 | 24 | 0.25 |
| 15 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 6.71 | 9 | 6.90 | 12 | 0.20 |
| 16 | Chicago Bears | 6.36 | 15 | 6.51 | 15 | 0.15 |
| 17 | Green Bay Packers | 6.07 | 20 | 6.11 | 18 | 0.04 |
| 18 | Miami Dolphins | 5.93 | 21 | 5.92 | 23 | 0.00 |
| 19 | New York Giants | 6.82 | 8 | 6.64 | 14 | -0.18 |
| 20 | Baltimore Ravens | 5.35 | 27 | 5.07 | 28 | -0.28 |
| 21 | Kansas City Chiefs | 6.44 | 13 | 5.98 | 21 | -0.45 |
| 22 | Washington Redskins | 7.22 | 6 | 6.69 | 13 | -0.53 |
| 23 | Seattle Seahawks | 7.68 | 3 | 7.14 | 10 | -0.54 |
| 24 | Buffalo Bills | 6.70 | 10 | 6.09 | 19 | -0.61 |
| 25 | Cincinnati Bengals | 7.71 | 2 | 7.09 | 11 | -0.62 |
| 26 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 6.08 | 19 | 5.27 | 27 | -0.81 |
| 27 | San Francisco 49ers | 5.35 | 28 | 4.52 | 31 | -0.83 |
| 28 | Houston Texans | 5.91 | 22 | 4.60 | 30 | -1.31 |
| 29 | Carolina Panthers | 7.19 | 7 | 5.63 | 25 | -1.56 |
| 30 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6.44 | 12 | 4.82 | 29 | -1.61 |
| 31 | New York Jets | 6.38 | 14 | 4.16 | 32 | -2.23 |
| 32 | Arizona Cardinals | 8.03 | 1 | 5.45 | 26 | -2.58 |
Another interesting decline is in Tampa Bay. You would expect Jameis Winston and the young Bucs offense to make strides in 2016, but instead, they have declined. Winston’s interception rate is way up, and his yards per completion is way down. He’s also throwing a ton more: he’s thrown over 45 passes in 3 of 5 games this year, after doing it just once all of his rookie season.
What about defensive ANY/A? The Cardinals and Vikings were both good against the pass last year, but each defense has been even better this year. As a result, Arizona and Minnesota rank both in the top two in ANY/A allowed and in the top two in ANY/A allowed improvement. Also of note: the Jaguars and Titans have both quietly jumped from far below average to above average in this metric.
| Rk | Team | 2015 Def ANY/A | 2015 Rk | 2016 Def ANY/A | 2016 Rk | Def ANY/A Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota Vikings | 6.05 | 12 | 3.72 | 2 | 2.34 |
| 2 | Arizona Cardinals | 5.44 | 8 | 3.70 | 1 | 1.73 |
| 3 | Baltimore Ravens | 6.99 | 23 | 5.45 | 6 | 1.54 |
| 4 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 7.00 | 24 | 5.50 | 7 | 1.50 |
| 5 | Tennessee Titans | 7.13 | 28 | 5.66 | 11 | 1.46 |
| 6 | New Orleans Saints | 8.76 | 32 | 7.49 | 24 | 1.27 |
| 7 | San Diego Chargers | 6.88 | 22 | 5.68 | 12 | 1.20 |
| 8 | Washington Redskins | 7.01 | 25 | 6.07 | 13 | 0.94 |
| 9 | Philadelphia Eagles | 6.44 | 18 | 5.56 | 9 | 0.88 |
| 10 | New York Giants | 7.15 | 29 | 6.27 | 14 | 0.88 |
| 11 | Chicago Bears | 7.03 | 26 | 6.34 | 16 | 0.69 |
| 12 | San Francisco 49ers | 7.27 | 30 | 6.60 | 19 | 0.67 |
| 13 | Buffalo Bills | 6.11 | 13 | 5.54 | 8 | 0.57 |
| 14 | Miami Dolphins | 7.04 | 27 | 6.57 | 18 | 0.47 |
| 15 | Denver Broncos | 4.71 | 2 | 4.37 | 3 | 0.34 |
| 16 | Seattle Seahawks | 5.15 | 5 | 4.92 | 4 | 0.23 |
| 17 | Dallas Cowboys | 6.81 | 19 | 6.74 | 21 | 0.07 |
| 18 | Cleveland Browns | 7.77 | 31 | 7.94 | 28 | -0.16 |
| 19 | Los Angeles Rams | 6.11 | 14 | 6.35 | 17 | -0.23 |
| 20 | Houston Texans | 5.38 | 6 | 5.63 | 10 | -0.25 |
| 21 | Kansas City Chiefs | 4.91 | 3 | 5.18 | 5 | -0.28 |
| 22 | New England Patriots | 5.88 | 10 | 6.32 | 15 | -0.44 |
| 23 | Atlanta Falcons | 6.18 | 15 | 6.74 | 22 | -0.56 |
| 24 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 6.19 | 16 | 6.82 | 23 | -0.64 |
| 25 | Green Bay Packers | 5.59 | 9 | 6.61 | 20 | -1.02 |
| 26 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6.85 | 20 | 8.13 | 29 | -1.28 |
| 27 | Detroit Lions | 6.87 | 21 | 8.41 | 30 | -1.54 |
| 28 | Indianapolis Colts | 6.34 | 17 | 7.91 | 27 | -1.57 |
| 29 | Oakland Raiders | 5.91 | 11 | 8.52 | 31 | -2.61 |
| 30 | Cincinnati Bengals | 4.93 | 4 | 7.75 | 26 | -2.82 |
| 31 | Carolina Panthers | 4.46 | 1 | 7.72 | 25 | -3.26 |
| 32 | New York Jets | 5.40 | 7 | 8.68 | 32 | -3.29 |
Three of the top five pass defenses from last year are in the top five this year: Denver, Kansas City, and Seattle. The other two defenses? Carolina has fallen from #1 to #25, while Cincinnati has dropped from #4 to #26. Both teams have been playoff regulars and Super Bowl contenders, but have been disasters on pass defense this season.
And yet, neither team has seen the biggest decline in pass defense: that’s because of the New York Jets, who have inexplicably fallen from 5.40 (7th) to 8.68 (32nd).
Speaking of the Jets…. New York is a remarkable outlier in the best simple stat around: ANY/A differential. The Vikings are number in this category, but are not as far from average as the Jets:
| Rk | Team | 2016 Off ANY/A | Off Rk | 2016 Def ANY/A | Def Rk | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota Vikings | 7.71 | 5 | 3.72 | 2 | 3.99 |
| 2 | Atlanta Falcons | 9.52 | 1 | 6.74 | 22 | 2.78 |
| 3 | New England Patriots | 8.93 | 2 | 6.32 | 15 | 2.61 |
| 4 | Seattle Seahawks | 7.14 | 10 | 4.92 | 4 | 2.22 |
| 5 | San Diego Chargers | 7.84 | 4 | 5.68 | 12 | 2.16 |
| 6 | Arizona Cardinals | 5.45 | 26 | 3.70 | 1 | 1.75 |
| 7 | Philadelphia Eagles | 7.22 | 8 | 5.56 | 9 | 1.66 |
| 8 | Denver Broncos | 5.94 | 22 | 4.37 | 3 | 1.57 |
| 9 | Dallas Cowboys | 8.05 | 3 | 6.74 | 21 | 1.31 |
| 10 | Kansas City Chiefs | 5.98 | 21 | 5.18 | 5 | 0.80 |
| 11 | Tennessee Titans | 6.30 | 16 | 5.66 | 11 | 0.63 |
| 12 | Washington Redskins | 6.69 | 13 | 6.07 | 13 | 0.62 |
| 13 | Buffalo Bills | 6.09 | 19 | 5.54 | 8 | 0.54 |
| 14 | New York Giants | 6.64 | 14 | 6.27 | 14 | 0.36 |
| 15 | Chicago Bears | 6.51 | 15 | 6.34 | 16 | 0.18 |
| 16 | New Orleans Saints | 7.62 | 6 | 7.49 | 24 | 0.13 |
| 17 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 6.90 | 12 | 6.82 | 23 | 0.08 |
| 18 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 5.27 | 27 | 5.50 | 7 | -0.24 |
| 19 | Los Angeles Rams | 6.06 | 20 | 6.35 | 17 | -0.29 |
| 20 | Baltimore Ravens | 5.07 | 28 | 5.45 | 6 | -0.38 |
| 21 | Green Bay Packers | 6.11 | 18 | 6.61 | 20 | -0.50 |
| 22 | Miami Dolphins | 5.92 | 23 | 6.57 | 18 | -0.65 |
| 23 | Cincinnati Bengals | 7.09 | 11 | 7.75 | 26 | -0.66 |
| 24 | Houston Texans | 4.60 | 30 | 5.63 | 10 | -1.03 |
| 25 | Detroit Lions | 7.33 | 7 | 8.41 | 30 | -1.08 |
| 26 | Oakland Raiders | 7.21 | 9 | 8.52 | 31 | -1.30 |
| 27 | Indianapolis Colts | 6.21 | 17 | 7.91 | 27 | -1.70 |
| 28 | San Francisco 49ers | 4.52 | 31 | 6.60 | 19 | -2.08 |
| 29 | Carolina Panthers | 5.63 | 25 | 7.72 | 25 | -2.09 |
| 30 | Cleveland Browns | 5.75 | 24 | 7.94 | 28 | -2.19 |
| 31 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 4.82 | 29 | 8.13 | 29 | -3.30 |
| 32 | New York Jets | 4.16 | 32 | 8.68 | 32 | -4.52 |
Finally, let’s look at ANY/A differential (X-Axis) as a function of winning percentage (Y-Axis):
Perhaps the most shocking part of this graph: the 49ers and Panthers have nearly identical ANY/A differentials and winning percentages. Last year, Carolina ranked 2nd in ANY/A differential (behind Cincinnati), and the 49ers ranked 2nd to last (behind the Browns)>