Back in August, I asked you 38 questions that served as prop bets for the 2017 NFL season. Thanks to the tireless work of Jeremy De Shelter, who helped compile all the results, I am going to present the results over the rest of this week.
On average, the favorite for each question picked up 65% of the votes, which is in the ballpark of a good question (I think you want the split to be pretty close to 50/50, but with some exceptions to encourage risk-seeking behavior). Today: the first 13 questions.
Let’s begin.
Number of wins by the Saints
Number of wins by the Broncos
63% of you picked New Orleans to win this one. Football Perspective readers are pretty smart! The two teams each had 8 wins as the line set by Vegas, and the teams did in fact combine for 16 wins. But Denver went 5-11, while the Saints surprisingly went 11-5. Score this one for the majority.
Number of wins by the Ravens
Number of wins by the Lions
Baltimore received only 43% of the vote, despite having an over/under of 8.5 wins from Vegas compared to 7.5 for Detroit. So Football Perspective readers were pretty down on Baltimore or pretty high on the Lions. That insight turned out to be — well, correct, but not necessarily helpful. Both teams finished 9-7, in part because of a 44-20 victory in Baltimore by the Ravens over the Lions. The Ravens famously lost in the final minute of the regular season, but no matter: by contest rules, ties go to the team receiving fewer votes, so the 43% who backed Baltimore had this one clinched after week 16.
Number of wins by the Titans
Number of wins by the Buccaneers
Ahh, the old Marcus Mariota vs. Jameis Winston bet. This one was a blowout in two ways. Despite similar projected win totals — 9.0 for Tennessee, 8.5 for Tampa Bay — a contest-high 90% of you picked the Titans for this prop. Does anyone know why? No matter: Tennessee had this wrapped up after week 14, when the Titans were 8-5 and the Bucs were 4-9. Tennessee finished at 9-7, and Tampa Bay just 5-11, although I’ll note that Tennessee ranked 18th in DVOA while the Bucs ranked 23rd, indicating that these two teams were closer than it appeared. Score this as a win for the 90%.
Number of wins by the Eagles
Number of wins by the Falcons, -1.5
I gave the Eagles a 1.5 win head start, and yet just 27% of entrants picked Philadelphia! In retrospect, that feels kind of silly, since the Eagles finished 13-3 and the Falcons 10-6. Even without the 1.5-win edge, the Eagles won this one in a blowout. Of course, not many of us projected Philadelphia to be the best team in the NFL and win the Super Bowl.
Number of Patriots road wins
Number of Cowboys home wins
Despite being on the road, 69% of you picked the Patriots, no doubt envisioning a 6-2, 7-1, or 8-0 type result. The Patriots actually finished better on the road than at home, going 13-3 with home losses to the Chiefs and Panthers and the lone road loss being in Miami. Dallas went 9-7 with a crazy home/road split: the Cowboys were 3-5 at home and 6-2 on the road. This was a surprisingly easy win for the Patriots, given that New England “only” won 4 more games than the Cowboys. This has been a bit of a trend for Dallas, who had an even starker split in 2014 (going 8-0 on the road and 4-4 at home). Over the last four seasons, the Cowboys have the 2nd-best road record and 24th-best home record in the NFL.
Let’s move to one of the most interesting props…
Maximum number of passing TDs by a player from this group: Blake Bortles, Sam Bradford, Jay Cutler, Alex Smith
Minimum number of passing TDs by a player from this group: Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady, Derek Carr, Drew Brees
What’s the larger number going to be: the biggest number from four QBs expected to throw a small number of TDs, or the smallest number from four QBs expected to throw a ton of TDs?
You guys are well-trained, as 76% of you went with option A. After all, always take the field, right?
Bradford threw just 3 TDs, and Bortles (21) and Cutler (19) didn’t have that many, either. So the hope for this group came down to Smith, who wound up throwing 26. That turned out to be enough — and necessary — as Roethlisberger (28) and Brady (32) both had good TD seasons, but Brees (23) and Carr (22) fell just short of expectations. If it wasn’t for Smith, Option B would have won, but hey: that’s the beauty of taking the field (especially against the anti-field). Score another win for the majority.
Number of unique players to have 100-yard receiving games
Length of the longest TD pass thrown by Matthew Stafford
There were 76 players with 100-yard games in 2017, a dropoff from the 90 in 2016.
Would 76 be enough? Through 15 games, Stafford failed to throw a single touchdown pass of even 50 yards. Then, in week 17, he threw a 54-yarder in the 2nd quarter. In the third quarter, he threw a 71-yard touchdown pass, but that would be all for the Lions star. This was a close one, but 54% of you picked the players with 100-yard receiving games to be larger, and that group was correct. In over half of his seasons, Stafford’s long pass has been between 71 and 75 yards.
Number of interceptions thrown by Josh McCown
Number of Steelers wins, -0.5
Pittsburgh won 13 games, certainly exceeding expectations. But McCown? Well, he exceeded expectations, too, but that cuts both ways. After all, this line also factored in the chance that he would play only a handful of games. Nobody projected McCown for 18 touchdowns since most expected him to miss a number (most?) games due to injury or benching. But he wound up playing 13 games and throwing 9 interceptions. The Steelers over/under was 10.5 wins, which means the Pittsburgh side would have just barely won had they met expectations. Instead, Pittsburgh won this bet comfortably, even giving 0.5 to the other side, and even with McCown playing 13 games.
As for voters? Well, 59% of you picked the Steelers, so give yourself a pat on the back.
Number of wins by the 3rd-place team in the AFC West, +0.5
Number of wins by the 2nd-place team in the AFC East
Entering the season, the AFC West was considered the best division in football, with four strong teams that could contend. Meanwhile, the AFC East was perhaps the worst division, a top-heavy division that might only have one team with a winning record.
If that doesn’t ring a bell, consider that 73% of you picked the 3rd-place AFC West team to finish with more wins (after getting half a win) than the 2nd-place AFC East team. In reality? Buffalo finished with 9 wins, easily covering the +0.5 win spread over third-place Oakland (6-10).
Number of completions by the 32nd ranked quarterback in completions
Number of receptions by the receiver with the most receptions, +15.5
This wins the award for best line of the contest. The results were pretty split: 55% of you picked the 32nd-ranked quarterback, and Deshaun Watson had 126 completions, which ranked 32nd in the league; in 2016, the 32nd-ranked QB had 129 completions. So, for the receiving leader to win, he would need 111 receptions.
Larry Fitzgerald finished 2nd in receptions with 109. Jarvis Landry had 108 receptions midway through the fourth quarter of a week 17 game against the Bills. There, on his final drive of the season, Landry and David Fales connected four times, the last of which for a touchdown, just before Landry was ejected. No matter: he had secured his 112th catch of the season, earning his the receptions crown for 2017, and also carrying the underdog line to a narrow victory, 127.5 to 126.
Julio Jones receiving yards in home games
Receiving Yards by the Jets leading receiver (any position)
Jones had 722 yards in home games, which if it didn’t necessarily exceed expectation (he had 813 in home games in 2016 and 951 in home games in 2015), it probably was higher than his median projection (in other words, he stayed healthy). Side note: Jones had both 44 receptions and 722 yards in eight home games and in eight road games in 2017. For Football Perspective voters, this was the single toughest vote of the contest: 49% of you picked Jones, 51% picked the Jets field.
In a shocking development, if this line had been the Jets #2 receiver, it still would have covered. Robby Anderson had 941 yards, while Jermaine Kearse had 810 yards. So score this as a win for the 51%.
Largest win by the Raiders (by points)
Largest loss by the 49ers (by points)
This was a funny one, as the two Bay area teams both finished with the same record. Oakland was supposed to be one of the best teams in the league and San Francisco one of the worst, which was the point behind this line. If you knew the two teams would have the same record, you probably would have picked the 49ers.
And yet… the Raiders beat the Jets by 25 points in week 2; which was one of just two double digit wins, and the only by more than 10. But it wasn’t enough, because the 49ers lost to the Cowboys by 30 points in week 7, making this a win for the 69% of you that picked San Francisco.
Longest TD play from scrimmage by Le’Veon Bell
Longest Field Goal by Justin Tucker
63% of you picked Tucker here, no doubt falling for the Ravens kicker’s big leg. His long in 2017 was 57 yards, and it’s been between 55 and 61 yards in 5 of his 6 seasons. So the real question was: would Bell have a very long touchdown?
Well, for all his talents, Bell has had just one play in his career exceed 55 yards: an 81-yard run up the middle against the Panthers back in 2014 where he was untouched for most of the run. His long in 2017 was just 42 yards on a reception, and his longest touchdown play was a 35-yard catch and run. This was an easy win for the majority.
What do you think?