On Friday, I looked at each team’s offensive pass identity. Today, the reverse: a look at defensive pass identities.
The Jacksonville Jaguars were one of the best teams in the NFL last year. Jacksonville had the 3rd-best points differential in the NFL in 2017 after 1 quarter (+41), the 5th-best after 2 quarters (+86), the 4th-best through 3 quarters (+109), and tied for the 3rd-best points differential overall. Unsurprisingly, Jacksonville had the 4th best average Game Script last season, which means you should expect the Jaguars to be run-heavy and Jacksonville’s opponents to be pass-heavy.
On the offensive side, things held to form: Jacksonville rushed on 49.4% of plays, the highest ratio in the NFL last season. But on defense, that wasn’t the case: teams passed on only 56.4% of plays against the Jaguars last year! Consider that opponents passed on 65.4% and 62.3% of plays against the Eagles and Vikings, teams that finished 3rd and 5th in Game Script last season.
On the other side, the Tennessee Titans. Last season, the Titans were an average team, finishing with a slightly negative Game Script. And yet teams passed on them like they were the Patriots! In fact, opponents passed against New England on 61.6% of plays and against the Titans on 61.7% of plays. The Titans Game Script was 0.27 standard deviations below average, while the opponent pass ratio was 1.42 standard deviations above average. As a result, the Titans have a Defensive Pass Identity of +1.69, making them the defense teams were most likely to pass against.
| Rk | Team | Game Script | Opp Pass Ratio | GS Z-Score | OPR Z-Score | Def Pass Identity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tennessee Titans | -0.87 | 61.7% | -0.27 | 1.42 | 1.69 |
| 2 | Miami Dolphins | -5.27 | 56.8% | -1.65 | -0.3 | 1.35 |
| 3 | Carolina Panthers | 1.13 | 62% | 0.35 | 1.53 | 1.18 |
| 4 | Philadelphia Eagles | 5.07 | 65.4% | 1.58 | 2.74 | 1.15 |
| 5 | Chicago Bears | -2.96 | 57.4% | -0.92 | -0.09 | 0.83 |
| 6 | Cleveland Browns | -6.14 | 54.5% | -1.92 | -1.09 | 0.82 |
| 7 | Arizona Cardinals | -0.75 | 59.3% | -0.24 | 0.58 | 0.81 |
| 8 | Oakland Raiders | -2.89 | 56.8% | -0.9 | -0.3 | 0.6 |
| 9 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -2.9 | 56.3% | -0.91 | -0.48 | 0.43 |
| 10 | Detroit Lions | -0.18 | 58.6% | -0.06 | 0.35 | 0.4 |
| 11 | Denver Broncos | -4.06 | 55.1% | -1.27 | -0.9 | 0.37 |
| 12 | Dallas Cowboys | 1.42 | 59.9% | 0.44 | 0.8 | 0.36 |
| 13 | Minnesota Vikings | 4.31 | 62.3% | 1.35 | 1.63 | 0.28 |
| 14 | New York Giants | -2.84 | 55.7% | -0.89 | -0.7 | 0.19 |
| 15 | Seattle Seahawks | -1.52 | 56.8% | -0.48 | -0.31 | 0.17 |
| 16 | New York Jets | -1.74 | 56.2% | -0.54 | -0.5 | 0.04 |
| 17 | Buffalo Bills | -1.08 | 56.6% | -0.34 | -0.35 | -0.01 |
| 18 | Atlanta Falcons | 2.09 | 59.4% | 0.65 | 0.63 | -0.02 |
| 19 | Green Bay Packers | -2.76 | 54.5% | -0.86 | -1.12 | -0.26 |
| 20 | New England Patriots | 5.31 | 61.6% | 1.66 | 1.39 | -0.27 |
| 21 | Baltimore Ravens | 1.74 | 58.4% | 0.54 | 0.25 | -0.29 |
| 22 | Houston Texans | -2.13 | 54.8% | -0.67 | -1.02 | -0.35 |
| 23 | San Francisco 49ers | -2.88 | 53.4% | -0.9 | -1.48 | -0.58 |
| 24 | New Orleans Saints | 3.78 | 59.3% | 1.18 | 0.6 | -0.58 |
| 25 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 3.08 | 58.5% | 0.96 | 0.3 | -0.67 |
| 26 | Cincinnati Bengals | -0.7 | 55.1% | -0.22 | -0.9 | -0.68 |
| 27 | Kansas City Chiefs | 2.66 | 58.1% | 0.83 | 0.14 | -0.69 |
| 28 | Washington Redskins | -0.08 | 54.9% | -0.03 | -0.96 | -0.93 |
| 29 | San Diego Chargers | 2.64 | 57.1% | 0.82 | -0.18 | -1.01 |
| 30 | Indianapolis Colts | -2.15 | 52.4% | -0.67 | -1.84 | -1.17 |
| 31 | Los Angeles Rams | 6.01 | 59.4% | 1.88 | 0.61 | -1.27 |
| 32 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 4.67 | 56.4% | 1.46 | -0.43 | -1.89 |
The Jaguars Game Script was 1.46 standard deviations above average, while their opponent pass ratio was 0.43 standard deviations below average. You may recall that early in the year, Jacksonville had the worst run defense in the NFL and the best pass defense. As a result, the narrative developed that despite the score, it made sense to run against Jacksonville. Through 8 weeks, Jacksonville allowed 5.16 yards per carry, the worst rate in the NFL. But bolstered, in part, by the mid-season acquisition of Marcell Dareus, the Jaguars allowed just 3.69 yards per carry the last 9 weeks, the 7th-best rate.