The Colts were 0.2 points per game better than average last year, as measured by the Simple Rating System (which takes the points scored and allowed in each game, and adjusts for opponent strength and home field advantage).

The Vikings were 0.9. points per game better than average in 2016, and hosted the Colts in week 15.  Given those facts, we would expect Minnesota to have won by 3.7 points.  Instead, Indianapolis upset the Vikings, 34-6, beating the expected line by 31.7 points.  That was the least-conforming game of 2016 (you can view the least-conforming games of 2015 here).

The table below shows all 512 regular season games from 2016, and how it differed from expectations. Here’s how to read the first line. The second-least conforming game was came in week 3, and we can use it to help guide us through the table below. The Eagles hosted the Steelers, and Philadelphia had an SRS rating of +3.7, while Pittsburgh had an SRS of +4.7. As a result, we would expect the Eagles to lose by 2 points. Instead, they won 34-3, exceeding expectations by 29 points.
[continue reading…]