As I did last season, here is a recap of the trades from the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft.
1)
Bucs trade: 7th overall, 255th overall
Bills trade: 12th overall, 53rd, and 56th
This was not a cheap trade for the Bills: Buffalo traded 127 cents on the dollar on the JJ Chart and 167 cents on the dollar on the FP chart. Buffalo traded up for a QB, of course: Wyoming’s Josh Allen (College Stats). The Bills paid a premium to get their quarterback, but this was no surprise. Buffalo entered the draft with a ton of draft capital, and it was no secret that the Bills wanted a quarterback. This trade made sense from that perspective, but it doesn’t mean Buffalo didn’t pay a lot to get their man (particularly given the next trade).
2)
Raiders trade: 10th overall
Cardinals trade: 15th overall, 79th overall, 152nd overall
Arizona wanted a quarterback, and Rosen might have been the best quarterback in the entire draft. The Cardinals were surely ecstatic to see Rosen fall to 10, and pounced on him. Even better, Arizona didn’t pay much in the way of premiums: the Cardinals paid less than 100 cents on the dollar (98, to be exact) on the JJ chart, and 135 on my chart, to move up for Rosen.
3)
Packers trade: 14th overall
Saints trade: 27th overall, 147th overall, and 2019 1st round pick
New Orleans moves up 13 spots and sends… a fifth round pick and a future first! If you value the future first round pick as equivalent to say, the 24th overall pick (and don’t have a time value of money discount), the Saints paid 132 cents on the dollar on the JJ chart, and 173 cents on the dollar on my chart. If you value the future first as the 16th overall pick (and don’t have a time value of money discount), they spent 156 cents on the dollar on the JJ chart and 187 cents on the dollar on the Football Perspective chart.
Thought of another way, using my chart, if we value the 2019 1st round pick as equal to the 26th overall pick, the Saints gave up the equivalent of the 2nd overall pick! That was quite a lot to draft UTSA defensive end Marcus Davenport, who you may recall from his performance in the 40-yard dash. The Saints are clearly in win-now mode, and are willing to pay a premium to squeeze out every ounce of talent on the 2018 team.
4)
Ravens trade: 16th overall, 154th overall
Bills trade: 22nd overall, 65th overall
On the traditional draft chart, this was a near perfect trade: Buffalo sent 101 cents on the dollar. On my chart, it’s a bit worse, as the Bills spent 118 cents on the dollar.
Buffalo gave up 12, 22, 53, 56, and 65 to get the 7th and 16th picks (along with 154). That is… a lot. Especially for a team that is not in a win now mode. The Bills moved up to select Virginia Tech LB Tremaine Edmunds.
5)
Seahawks trade: 18th overall, 248th overall
Packers trade: 27th overall, 76th overall (3rd round), and 186th overall (sixth round)
After trading down from 14 to 27, the Packers moved back up to 18 to select Louisville CB Jaire Alexander. Green Bay traded exactly 100 cents on the dollar on the JJ chart, making this a perfect trade. On my chart, it was much less fun: the Packers paid 135 cents on the dollar, as giving up a third round pick has some real value. If you’re the Packers, though, you can think of this as trading down from 14 to 18 and getting 147 and a 2019 1st, and all you had to give up was a 3rd and a 6th this year. That’s not too shabby. The Packers likely still got their man, even at 18, and improved the franchise’s overall draft capital.
6) Raiders trade the 79th pick to the Steelers for WR Martavis Bryant.
No commentary here, but wanted to note.
7)
Ravens trade 22nd overall, 215th overall
Titans trade 25th overall, 125th overall
Baltimore again trades down here, this time getting “only” 98 cents on the dollar on the traditional chart but 118 cents on the dollar on my chart. Baltimore moved from 16 to 25 and picked up the first pick in the third round and a late fourth round pick in the process. Tennessee traded up for Alabama LB Rashaan Evans.
8)
Eagles trade 32nd overall, 132nd overall
Ravens trade 52nd overall, 125th and a 2019 second rounder
This was a great trade for the Eagles, who picked up 131 cents on the dollar on my chart (valuing the 2019 2nd round pick as equal to pick 50) and 144 cents on the traditional chart. The Ravens paid the QB premium to go up and draft, well, a QB in Lamar Jackson.
It brings back memories of the Vikings four years ago, who also traded up to the 32nd pick to draft a Louisville quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater. If you want to compare the two grades, it feels like Minnesota did a better job. The Vikings sent the 40th pick and the 108th pick to Seattle to move up to 32, or the 108th pick to move up 8 spots, while the Ravens sent a future 2nd to move up 20 spots (and dropped down from 125 to 132).
For the Super Bowl champions, 2018 continues to be a nice year.