2018 Game Scripts Data: Colts, Steelers, Vikings Are The Most Pass-Happy Teams

by Chase Stuart on October 19, 2018

Below is a scatter plot showing the Game Scripts (on the X-Axis) and pass ratio (on the Y-Axis) of every game so far this season. I have also provided a best-fit line:

Unsurprisingly, there’s a negative correlation between Game Script and Pass Ratio. In general, teams are expected to pass about 3% less often for every 4 points of Game Script. In other words, based on six weeks worth of 2018 data, with a Game Script of +7.5, teams are expected to pass 54.7% of the time; at +11.5, the expected pass ratio would be 51.7%.

The table below shows the results from each game this season. It is sorted from most run-happy to least. The Bills/Titans game leads the way by a large margin. In that game, Buffalo had a Game Script of +2.5, which means you would expect the Bills to pass on 58.3% of plays; instead, Buffalo passed on just 31.7% of plays, a difference of 26.6%. That makes it the most run-heavy game of the year, which we wrote about at the time.

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Wk	Team	H/R	Opp	Boxscore	PF	PA	Margin	Game Script	W/L	Pass	Run	ExpPR	P/R Ratio	Diff
5	BUF		TEN	Boxscore	13	12	1	2.5	Win	20	43	58.3%	31.7%	26.6%
3	CAR		CIN	Boxscore	31	21	10	4.1	Win	25	42	57.2%	37.3%	19.9%
3	TEN	@	JAX	Boxscore	9	6	3	1.5	Win	24	35	59.1%	40.7%	18.4%
5	SEA		LAR	Boxscore	31	33	-2	0.9	Loss	23	32	59.5%	41.8%	17.7%
5	NYJ		DEN	Boxscore	34	16	18	7.6	Win	23	38	54.6%	37.7%	16.9%
3	SFO	@	KAN	Boxscore	27	38	-11	-12.7	Loss	34	29	69.6%	54%	15.7%
3	WAS		GNB	Boxscore	31	17	14	11.6	Win	20	35	51.6%	36.4%	15.3%
2	TEN		HOU	Boxscore	20	17	3	6.4	Win	23	34	55.5%	40.4%	15.2%
1	HOU	@	NWE	Boxscore	20	27	-7	-10.1	Loss	38	34	67.7%	52.8%	14.9%
4	MIA	@	NWE	Boxscore	7	38	-31	-18.9	Loss	27	18	74.2%	60%	14.2%

Showing 1 to 10 of 186 entries

And finally, here are the full season ratings. The Bills, Titans, Seahawks, 49ers, and Jets are the five most run-heavy teams this season. Meanwhile, the AFC North has three of the most pass-happy teams in the NFL:

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Rk	Team	G	Avg GS	Avg Pass Ratio	Exp Pass Ratio	Rush Identity
1	BUF	6	-5.3	54.5%	64.1%	9.6%
2	TEN	6	-2	53.9%	61.7%	7.8%
3	SEA	6	2.9	50.8%	58.1%	7.3%
4	SFO	6	-2.6	56.5%	62.1%	5.6%
5	NYJ	6	2.2	53.1%	58.6%	5.5%
6	DAL	6	2.6	53.2%	58.3%	5.2%
7	MIA	6	-0.8	56.7%	60.8%	4.1%
8	CAR	5	0.3	56.1%	60%	3.9%
9	WAS	5	2.3	55.5%	58.5%	3%
10	CLE	6	-3.3	59.6%	62.6%	3%
11	LAC	6	2.8	55.1%	58.1%	3%
12	HOU	6	-2.5	59.3%	62%	2.8%
13	LAR	6	5.9	53.3%	55.9%	2.5%
14	ARI	6	-4	60.8%	63.2%	2.4%
15	CHI	5	7	53.9%	55%	1.1%
16	NWE	6	4.4	56.5%	57%	0.5%
17	TAM	5	-4.4	64.1%	63.5%	-0.6%
18	DEN	6	-3.8	63.9%	63%	-0.9%
19	OAK	6	-3.1	64.2%	62.5%	-1.7%
20	PHI	6	-0.2	62.5%	60.4%	-2.1%
21	NOR	5	1.6	61.2%	59%	-2.2%
22	JAX	6	-1.4	63.6%	61.2%	-2.3%
23	KAN	6	6.3	58.5%	55.5%	-3%
24	DET	5	0.5	63.8%	59.8%	-4%
25	ATL	6	0.3	64%	60%	-4%
26	NYG	6	-4.9	68.5%	63.8%	-4.7%
27	GNB	6	-3	68.2%	62.4%	-5.8%
28	CIN	6	-0.1	66.2%	60.3%	-5.9%
29	BAL	6	6	62.7%	55.8%	-7%
30	MIN	6	-1.5	68.5%	61.3%	-7.2%
31	PIT	6	1.2	67%	59.4%	-7.7%
32	IND	6	-2.1	70%	61.8%	-8.3%

Oh, and perhaps the most surprising result: the Bears have the best average Game Script this season, based mostly on the demolition over Tampa Bay.

Tagged as: Game Scripts

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