2018 March — Page 2

Matt Forte, Bilal Powell, and Special Teams Yards

by Chase Stuart on March 1, 2018

Matt Forte retired yesterday, but we will leave those thoughts for another post. Today, I want to look at what I’ve referred to before as special teams yards. What are those?

All yards gained on special teams are done outside of the context of the series (down and distance) environment that defines most games. A kickoff return from to the 30 or to the 40 represents a difference of 10 yards, but those 10 yards are not as valuable as the difference between a gain of 5 yards and 15 yards on 3rd-and-10. The former are, quite literally, special teams yards. They don’t provide any value in gaining any additional first downs, or keeping a drive alive.

Special teams yards, while obviously valuable, are — just as obviously — the least valuable yards possible.

On a 3rd-and-10, a 15-yard pass provides a significant amount of value by providing a first down. But let’s get a bit more precise: the first 10 of those yards were really valuable. The last 5? Well, those were special teams yards. The difference between gaining 10 yards and gaining 15 yards on 3rd-and-10 isn’t that significant: well, it’s about as significant as returning a kickoff for 30 yards or 35 yards. Those last 5 yards don’t help a team move the chains.

So all yards gained by a player after already picking up a first down are what I’m referring to as special teams yards. And you know what other yards are less meaningful? All yards on third down or fourth down (special teams yards can come on any down) that don’t pick up a first down. A 9-yard run on 3rd-and-15 are just like special teams yards, too.

So let’s call all yards gained after gaining a first down “Post-1D Yards” and all yards on 3rd or 4th down that don’t go for a first down “3D Fail Yards.” To be clear, I’m not saying that Post-1D Yards or 3D Fail Yards are meaningless, but they are akin to special teams yards because they don’t help move the chains. They are yards gained outside of the context of the goal of acquiring a new set of downs.

Now, let’s talk about Forte, who rushed 103 times for 381 yards last year, which equates to 3.70 YPC. His backfield teammate, Bilal Powell, rushed 139 times for 754 yards, a 4.34 YPC average. But Forte had almost no “special teams” yards: he had just 35 yards picked up after gaining a first down, and only 4 yards gained on failed third/fourth down rushes. If you eliminate those, his “net” yards per carry was 3.32.

As for Powell? He had runs of 41, 51, 57, and 75 yards, along with five other runs of at least 20 yards. Those contributed to the 267 Post-1D Yards that Powell had, which comprised a whopping 40% of his total rushing yards. That was the third highest percentage in the NFL (minimum 100 carries) behind only Kenyan Drake (41%) and Cam Newton (43%). Meanwhile, Forte had just 9% of his rushing yards come as Post-1D Yards, the lowest in the league (Jamaal Williams was second at 12%, followed by Doug Martin at 15%). And in addition, Powell had 4% of his yards come as 3D Fail Yards, compared to just 1% for Forte.

Add it up, and Powell’s “net” yards per carry after removing “special teams” yards was just 2.44, quite a bit behind Forte. The table below shows the full data set for all rushers with 100 carries in 2017:

Rk	Player	Team	Rsh	RshYd	YPC	YPC Rk	Post-1D Yds	P1D Y/C	P1DY / RYd	3D Fail Yd	3DF Y/C	Net YPC	Diff
1	Alvin Kamara	NOR	120	728	6.07	1	257	2.14	35.3%	5	0.04	3.88	3.48
2	Alfred Morris	DAL	116	549	4.73	7	131	1.13	23.9%	1	0.01	3.59	3.19
3	Dion Lewis	NWE	180	896	4.98	3	252	1.40	28.1%	4	0.02	3.56	3.15
4	Wayne Gallman	NYG	111	476	4.29	17	82	0.74	17.2%	4	0.04	3.51	3.11
5	Matt Breida	SFO	105	465	4.43	10	91	0.87	19.6%	14	0.13	3.43	3.03
6	Matt Forte	NYJ	103	381	3.70	36	35	0.34	9.2%	4	0.04	3.32	2.92
7	Kareem Hunt	KAN	272	1328	4.88	5	442	1.63	33.3%	4	0.01	3.24	2.84
8	Giovani Bernard	CIN	106	459	4.33	15	95	0.90	20.7%	27	0.25	3.18	2.78
9	Ezekiel Elliott	DAL	242	983	4.06	22	214	0.88	21.8%	8	0.03	3.14	2.74
10	Le'Veon bell	PIT	321	1290	4.02	25	272	0.85	21.1%	11	0.03	3.14	2.74
11	Todd Gurley	RAM	279	1303	4.67	8	392	1.41	30.1%	36	0.13	3.14	2.74
12	Jamaal Williams	GNB	153	556	3.63	39	68	0.44	12.2%	12	0.08	3.11	2.71
13	Christian McCaffrey	CAR	117	436	3.73	34	70	0.60	16.1%	5	0.04	3.09	2.68
14	Alex Collins	RAV	212	973	4.59	9	309	1.46	31.8%	10	0.05	3.08	2.68
15	Lamar Miller	HTX	239	889	3.72	35	156	0.65	17.5%	4	0.02	3.05	2.65
16	Marshawn Lynch	RAI	207	890	4.30	16	256	1.24	28.8%	6	0.03	3.03	2.63
17	C.J. Anderson	DEN	245	1007	4.11	21	252	1.03	25%	13	0.05	3.03	2.63
18	Peyton Barber	TAM	108	423	3.92	27	96	0.89	22.7%	0	0.00	3.03	2.63
19	Devonta Freeman	ATL	196	863	4.40	12	252	1.29	29.2%	18	0.09	3.03	2.62
20	Mark Ingram	NOR	230	1124	4.89	4	404	1.76	35.9%	25	0.11	3.02	2.62
21	Frank Gore	CLT	249	915	3.67	38	156	0.63	17%	7	0.03	3.02	2.62
22	LeGarrette Blount	PHI	173	765	4.42	11	232	1.34	30.3%	13	0.08	3.01	2.60
23	Mike Gillislee	NWE	104	383	3.68	37	69	0.66	18%	6	0.06	2.96	2.56
24	Orleans Darkwa	NYG	171	751	4.39	13	244	1.43	32.5%	1	0.01	2.96	2.56
25	Isaiah Crowell	CLE	206	853	4.14	20	236	1.15	27.7%	8	0.04	2.96	2.56
26	Kerwynn Williams	CRD	120	426	3.55	41	72	0.60	16.9%	0	0.00	2.95	2.55
27	Cam Newton	CAR	139	754	5.42	2	322	2.32	42.7%	31	0.22	2.88	2.48
28	Kenyan Drake	MIA	133	648	4.87	6	267	2.01	41.2%	5	0.04	2.83	2.43
29	Jay Ajayi	2TM	208	872	4.19	19	267	1.28	30.6%	17	0.08	2.83	2.43
30	Leonard Fournette	JAX	268	1041	3.88	31	285	1.06	27.4%	10	0.04	2.78	2.38
31	Samaje Perine	WAS	175	604	3.45	43	114	0.65	18.9%	3	0.02	2.78	2.38
32	Latavius Murray	MIN	216	842	3.90	28	244	1.13	29%	5	0.02	2.75	2.34
33	Joe Mixon	CIN	177	624	3.53	42	131	0.74	21%	8	0.05	2.74	2.34
34	Melvin Gordon	SDG	284	1105	3.89	29	312	1.10	28.2%	16	0.06	2.74	2.33
35	Jordan Howard	CHI	276	1120	4.06	23	354	1.28	31.6%	11	0.04	2.74	2.33
36	Adrian Peterson	2TM	156	529	3.39	45	105	0.67	19.8%	0	0.00	2.72	2.32
37	Carlos Hyde	SFO	239	929	3.89	30	254	1.06	27.3%	28	0.12	2.71	2.31
38	Javorius Allen	RAV	154	592	3.84	32	135	0.88	22.8%	41	0.27	2.70	2.30
39	DeMarco Murray	OTI	184	659	3.58	40	156	0.85	23.7%	9	0.05	2.68	2.28
40	Derrick Henry	OTI	176	744	4.23	18	269	1.53	36.2%	3	0.02	2.68	2.28
41	Jerick McKinnon	MIN	151	570	3.77	33	133	0.88	23.3%	37	0.25	2.65	2.25
42	Tevin Coleman	ATL	156	630	4.04	24	208	1.33	33%	13	0.08	2.62	2.22
43	Jonathan Stewart	CAR	198	680	3.43	44	162	0.82	23.8%	7	0.04	2.58	2.18
44	Chris Ivory	JAX	114	382	3.35	46	73	0.64	19.1%	18	0.16	2.55	2.15
45	LeSean McCoy	BUF	287	1139	3.97	26	398	1.39	34.9%	21	0.07	2.51	2.11
46	Doug Martin	TAM	138	406	2.94	48	60	0.43	14.8%	0	0.00	2.51	2.11
47	Bilal Powell	NYJ	178	772	4.34	14	307	1.72	39.8%	31	0.17	2.44	2.04
48	Ameer Abdullah	DET	165	552	3.35	47	158	0.96	28.6%	5	0.03	2.36	1.96

What stands out to you?

Two notes. The correlation coefficient between Net YPC and actual YPC is 0.61, which is pretty low considering about one-third of actual YPC comes from the elements we leave out of Net YPC (i.e., Post-1D Yds and 3D Fail Yards make up about 33% of total rushing yards). The correlation coefficient between yards per carry and Post-1st Down Yards is 0.66, which is a good reason why, in my opinion, yards per carry isn’t all that helpful in understanding team success.

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