The Bucs offense continues to fascinate me. Whether it’s Ryan Fitzpatrick or Jameis Winston, this passing offense continues to be very good but also very turnover prone. Tampa Bay has completed 67.0 percent of passes this season, but the Bucs have also thrown interceptions on 5.1% of all passes. We all know that interception rates have been falling and completion percentage rates have been rising over the last few decades. So let’s put these outlier stats in perspective.

Before the 2018 Buccaneers, the last two teams to have interception rates at 5% or higher were the 2013 Giants and 2010 Vikings. In other words, it’s pretty unusual for this era. And a 67.0% completion rate is pretty rare for older eras. Consider:

• The 1980 Houston Oilers, with a 35-year-old Ken Stabler, completed 63.9% of passes and threw an interception on 6.0% of passes; that’s the highest completion percentage in history among teams to throw an INT on 5% of passes, but the Bucs are currently on pace to shatter that mark.
• The 2001 St. Louis Rams, behind Kurt Warner, completed 68.8% of passes and threw an interception on 4.0% of passes.  That’s the highest interception rate among teams to complete 67% of their passes or better; the 2010 Saints (68.1%; 3.3%) and 1993 49ers (67.6%; 3.2%) are the only other teams with a completion percentage above 67% and an interception rate higher than even 3%.  The Bucs are currently blowing that mark out of the water, too.

The graph below shows the completion percentage (X-Axis) and interception rate (Y-Axis) for every team since 1950.  I have put all of the 2018 teams, through 12 weeks, in red dots.  And then the 2018 Bucs are the black dot at (67%, 5%): [continue reading…]