Saints WR Michael Thomas had another dominant season in 2019. He easily led the NFL in receiving yards with 1,725, and he also was responsible for 38.9% of all Saints receiving yards. That was the largest percentage of a team’s receiving pie for any one player in 2019, followed by Bronco Courtland Sutton in a distant second place (32.7%), and Bears WR Allen Robinson (32.1%); only three other players (Buffalo’s John Brown, Cleveland’s Jarvis Landry, and Minnesota’s Stefon Diggs) topped 30%.
Regular readers know that I like to calculate something called the Concentration Index for passing offenses: it’s relatively simple to calculate, and it measures how concentrated a team’s passing offense is among a small or large number of players. To calculate, you simple take each player’s receiving yards, divide that by his team’s total receiving yards, square that result, and then add that number for each player on the offense. For the Saints, Thomas is at 38.9%; the square of that is 15.2%, so that’s the number we use. Jared Cook was second on the team with 705 yards, or 15.9% of the team’s receiving yards; the square of that number is 2.5%. Do this for every player, and the Saints have a total Concentration Index of 21.1%… which is highly concentrated.
Indianapolis was the team with the least concentrated offense in the league. Zach Pascal went undrafted in 2017, but somehow wound up leading Jacoby Brissett’s Colts in receiving yards in 2019. He had 18.3% of the team’s receiving yards, followed closely by T.Y. Hilton at 15.1% (in 10 games), Jack Doyle at 13.5%, and Eric Ebron at 11.3% (in 11 games). Even RB Nyheim Hines hit nearly 10%. This is why the Colts passing offense was the least concentrated in the NFL, at just 11.1% total.
Here is where each offense ranked in this metric in 2019:
| Rk | Team | Team Rec Yards | CC Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saints | 4431 | 21.1% |
| 2 | Panthers | 4134 | 19.1% |
| 3 | Browns | 3852 | 18.6% |
| 4 | Chargers | 4648 | 18.4% |
| 5 | Rams | 4669 | 17.6% |
| 6 | Bears | 3573 | 17.2% |
| 7 | Bills | 3476 | 17.1% |
| 8 | Broncos | 3401 | 16.9% |
| 9 | Cowboys | 4902 | 16.5% |
| 10 | Lions | 4189 | 16.1% |
| 11 | Texans | 4083 | 16% |
| 12 | Jets | 3447 | 15.9% |
| 13 | Jaguars | 4023 | 15.6% |
| 14 | Buccaneers | 5127 | 15.6% |
| 15 | Vikings | 3733 | 15.2% |
| 16 | Falcons | 5052 | 15.2% |
| 17 | Chiefs | 4690 | 15.2% |
| 18 | Steelers | 3214 | 15.2% |
| 19 | Bengals | 3998 | 14.7% |
| 20 | 49ers | 4029 | 14.5% |
| 21 | Seahawks | 4110 | 14.4% |
| 22 | Raiders | 4110 | 14.4% |
| 23 | Dolphins | 4117 | 14.3% |
| 24 | Ravens | 3350 | 14.2% |
| 25 | Redskins | 3205 | 13.9% |
| 26 | Titans | 3956 | 13.4% |
| 27 | Patriots | 4153 | 13.1% |
| 28 | Packers | 4017 | 12.9% |
| 29 | Eagles | 4063 | 12.3% |
| 30 | Giants | 4070 | 12% |
| 31 | Cardinals | 3797 | 11.8% |
| 32 | Colts | 3314 | 11.1% |
For Brissett, the 2019 season was underwhelming: he started the year hot, but declined in particular once Wayne was out. That said, he had a low sack rate and a low interception rate and led a run-heavy offense: the set of targets was underwhelming, and perhaps this study helps deflect some of the criticism for his performance.
In Arizona, rookie Kyler Murray made do without relying too much on any one player: Larry Fitzgerald had “only” 21.8% of Arizona’s receiving yards, and Christian Kirk was second with 18.7%; nobody else was above 10%. The Giants, a year after trading Odell Beckham Jr., saw Darius Slayton lead the team in receiving yards. But his 18.2% share of New York’s receiving pie was the lowest of any leading receiver in the league.
What stands out to you?