You may have heard that the NFL just celebrated its centennial season. To honor that, I decided to take on a project with the scope grand enough to match the occasion. Previously, I have undertaken large projects like the GridFe Hall of Fame and the Retro Awards project, ^[1]The latter of which was based off decades of prior research and thousands of hours of direct-focused research., and I wanted to build on what I’ve learned from those endeavors to create something everyone loves and hates at once: a big, fat list. In this case, the top 1,000 players in history.

This is my list. There are many like it, but this one is mine. It’s going to be a little different from others you have seen. There will be kickers, punters, blocking fullbacks, returners, and special teamers. You’ll see players from pro football’s Paleolithic era, antedating the NFL itself. With the exception of specialists, positional value won’t play much part here. Neither will fame – if I think an unheralded guy was better than the traditional favorite, I’m going against the grain.

Before we get into the list proper, I want to name a few honorable mentions and special mentions (listed by their offensive roles, when applicable).

Honorable Mentions

Quarterback: Jim McMahon had all the physical tools you could want, and he probably would have made the list had he been able to stay healthy. The Chicago defense deservedly gets the lion’s share of the credit, but the Bears were always a better team when McMahon was at the helm of the offense. Jack Kemp wasn’t exactly efficient, but he was a winner and was one of the best natural athletes to play the position. He had a cannon arm and was one of the best scramblers ever. Jeff Garcia was a gutsy player who dominated the CFL and thrived everywhere he went in the NFL. A classic West Coast passer with wheels, he was one of the more exciting quarterbacks to watch in recent memory.

Running Back: Keith Lincoln was a stout fullback with the speed to break big plays. He could pass, kick, and return as well, and his versatility was invaluable to the champion Chargers.

Fullbacks: Sam Gash and Mack Strong didn’t scare anyone with the ball in their hands, but they were two of the finest blocking fullbacks the game has ever seen. Gash didn’t start getting Pro Bowl attention till he switched teams, and Strong didn’t get love until Shaun Alexander became a household name, but both were incredible well before the public paid notice.

Wide Receivers: Hulking Dick Plasman was a pretty good receiver for his era, but it was his work as a defensive end that gets him the honorable mention. His claim to fame is being the last player to play without a helmet, but he was known by his peers for his temper and ability to disrupt the line of scrimmage. Alyn Beals didn’t generate a ton of yardage, but he was a touchdown machine. He led the AAFC in receiving touchdowns all four years of the league’s existence and is the all-time AAFC touchdown leader. Beals retired after the 1951 season because he could make more money running a liquor store.  Haven Moses was a dangerous big play threat for both the Bills and the Broncos. Diminutive Ernest Givins operated superbly in the run and shoot system, gaining separation with seeming ease and playing well in space with the ball in his hands. Julian Edelman reminds me of watching Scooby Doo as a child. The gang of meddling kids spent 80% of the episode running in circles, only to come up big in the end, thwarting the masked investor keen on lowering the price of real estate by dressing as a werewolf. Edelman rarely played a full 16 game schedule, and he surpassed 70 yards per game once in a season he played at least 12 games. Then January comes around, and he starts making crazy people on ESPN say he belongs in Canton. Jarvis Landry is an odd pick, given his actual production. However, his ability to gain separation and earn targets at a high rate on a wide variety of different routes is among the best in recent memory. He doesn’t choose the routes he gets to run, and he doesn’t choose whether he gets the target, but he almost always makes himself the best option for his quarterback.

Tackles: Len Grant had a short career, but he was good to great in each season. He would have likely made the list had he not been struck by lightning and killed at age 32.

Guards: Buckets Goldenberg may have been a better pure blocker than his more celebrated contemporary Walt Kiesling. Short and compact, he packed a punch in his man blocks.

Centers: Vince Banonis was a solid center and an excellent defensive tackle for the Chicago Cardinals. His career was interrupted by World War II, but he returned to newfound media acclaim and championship glory. Ed Flanagan was a terrific run blocker who anchored several solid lines for the Lions. Clyde Smith was arguably better at the position than Hall of Famer Alex Wojciechowicz, but his short career hurts him here.

Safety: Sean Taylor. What could have been. Taylor was one of the most gifted athletes ever to roam the secondary. He took a few years to put it all together and master the nuances of the role, but by age 23 he already looked like the future of the position. His life was tragically cut short before he reached the heights he seemed to be destined to achieve.

Kickers: Jeff Wilkins was a great long ball kicker and one of the all-time greats at placing onside kicks. Rob Bironas had a big leg and superb accuracy. He seemed to come up big in the biggest moments.

Punters: Rich Camarillo was successful wherever he went. His ability to mitigate return efforts contributed to his consistently excellent rankings in net yards per punt. Shane Lechler is the most decorated punter ever, and his big leg came in handy on those offensively impotent Oakland squads. His inability to limit returns or keep the ball out of the end zone keeps him off the main list. Mike Scifres had some of the highest highs and lowest lows of any punter. His placement on coffin corners was pure art, but his inability to avoid blocks was often disastrous.

Returners: George McAfee was a solid threat on offense and a pretty good defensive back. He also boasts the top punt return average in history (officially, but not actually). Travis Williams was a shooting star, not just in the brevity of his career but also in the explosiveness of his game. Terry Metcalf was more of a field position guy than a scorer, and his contributions on offense earn him an honorable mention over someone like Tamarick Vanover. Terry’s son, Eric, was a stud punt returner and effective slot receiver. Dave Meggett was a shifty scatback who was a good kickoff returner and a great punt returner. Brian Mitchell led the league in all purpose yards four times and still trails only Jerry Rice in career output. Desmond Howard broke punt returns in 1996, and he was effective in other years and for other teams as well. Dante Hall earned the nickname Human Joystick with his memorable returns that featured sharp cuts, abrupt stops, and uncanny acceleration.

Special Mentions

I thought I’d be a cheeky bastard and include these players in the proper list, but I realized that would be unfair to the more recent, better players. Still, with an eye to the past, I’d feel like the project was incomplete without mentioning these fellows.

In 1892, Pudge Heffelfinger accepted $500 to play a football game for the Allegheny Athletic Association. In doing so, he became the first professional football player (that we know of).

At a reported 250 pounds, Bob Shiring was a behemoth in his era. He was a crushing blocker at the pivot position, and he all but destroyed opposing strategies when lined up on the defensive front. Contemporary accounts inform us that Shiring commonly ragdolled any poor soul tasked with lining up against him.

Charles Follis was the first black professional football player on record, signing a contract with the Shelby Blues in 1904. He is also the subject of my favorite football article I have ever written.

Follis’s one-time teammate Peggy Parratt was a coveted player because of his ability to throw the ball. In 1906, Parratt threw the first forward pass in the history of professional football, starting a trend of pearl clutching and traditionalist hand-waving that continues over a century later.

While Parratt threw the first recorded professional pass, Knute Rockne and Massillon teammate Gus Dorais paved the way for using the pass as an integral part of an offensive game plan. The Dorais to Rockne connection was vital to the success of the Tigers.

The List Proper

Having given respects to the men who helped build the game, as well as those who narrowly missed the list, it is now time to get to the top thousand. I’ll cover the first eleven, a portion of the list populated entirely by specialists. This was the part of the list where I said “it’s my list, and I’ll cop out if I want to.” I wanted to recognize great special teams guys and return men, but I also didn’t feel like trying to do the mental gymnastics of explaining a guy who can barely earn playing time on offense or defense somehow outranks a regular starter who also contributed on special teams. Thus, the first eleven includes five special teamers and six returners. I can deal with it if you can.

1000. Bill Bates (1983-1997)
Dallas Cowboys

The beloved Cowboy was a decent safety and a good nickel linebacker early in his career, notching 12 interceptions and 16 sacks before turning 30. However, special teams is where he cemented his legend. Long after he ceded his starting role on defense, Bates continued to bring leadership by example, impressing coaches and teammates alike with his effort on the field and commitment in the film room. As a coverage guru, he was a consistent tackler, averaging almost a tackle per game over his 217 games. While he didn’t make many box score stuffing plays (1 forced fumble and 3 recoveries), Bates was instrumental in giving opponents worse field position.

999. Hank Bauer (1977-1982)
San Diego Chargers

Bauer’s career lasted just six seasons, but he managed to cram a ton of frenzied play into his brief time on the field. As a tough short yardage specialist on offense, he had years where he averaged 3.6 and 1.3 yards per carry while scoring 9 and 8 touchdowns. Nothing special. But on special teams, he was on another level. He wasn’t a playmaker, but he was a great blocker on return teams and an otherworldly tackler on coverage units. He finished his career with 147 special teams tackles, including an NFL record 51 in 1981. In his last season, Bauer averaged two coverage tackles per game, despite playing the last six games of the season with the broken neck that ultimately ended his career.

998. Ivory Sully (1979-1987)
Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Detroit Lions

Sully saw a lot of action as a member of the Rams’ deep squad of great defensive backs, often replacing a linebacker in Ray Malavasi’s innovative dollar defense. But he really made his mark as a special teamer. He didn’t have the consistently high tackle numbers of a guy like Bauer, but he arguably made big plays at a higher rate than any other specialist in history. Sully forced six fumbles, recovered four fumbles, blocked four punts, and blocked three kicks.

997. Michael Bates (1993-2003)
Carolina Panthers, Seattle Seahawks, Cleveland Browns, Washington, Dallas Cowboys, New York Jets

Bates was a world-class athlete, earning a bronze medal in the 200 at the 1992 Olympics. He used his blazing speed to make an impact as both a returner and a special teams ace. Bates led the league in kickoff return average twice and finished his career with 9348 yards, good for 7th all time. His five scoring returns put him 9th on the kickoff touchdown list. However, he was even better as a specialist. Despite bouncing around from team to team, he was a productive tackler wherever he went, and he was a top notch playmaker as well. Prior to injury, he posted 9 forced fumbles, 3 recoveries, and 4 blocked kicks in 136 games.

996. Steve Tasker (1985-1997)
Buffalo Bills, Houston Oilers

Tasker is the consensus pick for the greatest core special teams player of all time. His legend is such that he was even a Hall of Fame semifinalist purely for special teams play. While I wouldn’t go as far as to induct a player with 909 career yards from scrimmage and a forced/recovered fumble tally that matched Jared Allen‘s 2006 season, I do think it’s fair to recognize him as the best at his role. Early in his career, he was a playmaking machine. He posted 74 of his 111 career tackles, forced all five of his fumbles and notched all six of his kick blocks before turning 30. Until last year, his seven Pro Bowl selections were the most ever for a special teamer. ^[2]And by ever, I mean since it became an option in 1984. Last year, Patriots standout Matthew Slater earned his eighth Pro Bowl nod. Slater is in the Bill Bates mold, holding his own as a coverage … Continue reading

995. Billy Johnson (1974-1988)
Houston Oilers, Atlanta Falcons, Montreal Alouettes, Washington

The next two players were tough to separate, and I switched them back and forth a few times. White Shoes was a top notch punt returner and a pretty good kickoff returner. He led the league in punt return average twice and finished his career with a solid 11.8 yard average and 6 touchdowns. With slow and steady offensive production and a solid kick returning role early in his career, Johnson amassed 10785 all purpose yards. But it was his big play threat on punts that landed him on the NFL’s All-Century Team.

994. Rick Upchurch (1975-1983)
Denver Broncos

White Shoes got the honor of making the official centennial team, but Upchurch bests him on this list. As direct contemporaries, the Broncos standout boasted the superior punt return and kickoff return average, in addition to two more punt return touchdowns on fewer tries. Relative to the rest of the league, Upchurch created more value at his peak while posting just one below average season in his career. I’m not giving much consideration to offensive and defensive production in this installment, but it is worth mentioning that Upchurch also contributed more consistently on offense.

993. Josh Cribbs (2005-2014)
Cleveland Browns, New York Jets, Indianapolis Colts

An effective gadget player on offense, as well as a solid gunner on coverage teams, Cribbs really made his name as a return man. He was good – sometimes very good – fielding punts, but he is one of the very best of all time at returning kickoffs. His 2007 campaign may be the greatest the game has ever seen, and he surrounded that consistently excellent seasons. In terms of return efficiency, he was well above average over the third most kickoff returns of any player in history. Cribbs also boasts the record for career kickoff return scores, with eight.

992. Cordarrelle Patterson (2013-present)
Minnesota Vikings, Oakland Raiders, New England Patriots, Chicago Bears

With league efforts to legislate kickoff returns out of existence, Patterson has managed to fly under the radar as one of the all time great kickoff returners. Were he to play in an era that featured more returns, he would probably get the credit he has earned. He has played seven seasons, and his kickoff average ranks have been: 1, 6, 1, 1, DNQ, 3, and 2. The year he didn’t qualify, he missed the league minimum by one return and was nearly a full yard higher than the official leader. His 29.9 yard average ranks second in history in career average, just above Lynn Chandnois (29.6) and below Gale Sayers (30.6). The former returned 92 kicks, while the latter returned 91. Patterson has returned 204 and counting. He didn’t do much to pad his résumé on offense, but he has bolstered his value as a standout special teamer.

991. Mel Gray (1984-1997)
Detroit Lions, New Orleans Saints, Houston Oilers, Philadelphia Eagles, Los Angeles Express

In 2014, Chase published articles on the best kickoff returners and best punt returners in history. Gray came out as the top kickoff returner and the fifteenth ranked punt returner. ^[3]I disagree with using a 15 yard touchdown bonus for kickoff returns. If we use the 20 yard bonus from ANY/A as the standard, then we should probably make a kickoff return touchdown worth about 45 … Continue reading He wasn’t the terrifying big play threat that some others were, though he did score six touchdowns on kickoffs and another three on punts. What made Gray great was his ability to generate positive field position for his teams, year after year, without ever having a down year. Despite playing during a low point for league-wide kick return success, Gray’s raw numbers are among the best ever. Once you account for era, he’s clearly at the top of the pack.

990. Devin Hester (2006-2016)
Chicago Bears, Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens

There have been many good – even great – return men throughout history. Few have ever managed to strike fear in opposing squads to such an extent that they actually gameplanned around a returner. ^[4]Jack Christiansen on punts and Gale Sayers on kickoffs come to mind, but it’s not a long list. Hester didn’t just score return touchdowns at an unprecedented rate, he actually scared punters and kickoff specialists into kicking away from him and often making unforced errors. Like Gray, he was one of the few who excelled at both kickoffs and punts. Hester made an immediate impact, helping his inept offense with five return scores as a rookie and another six in his second season. He finished his career as the punt return touchdown king, and he threw in a ninth place rank in kickoff scores for good measure. Gale Sayers and Deion Sanders agree: Hester is the greatest, most explosive returner ever to play.

 

For the 10-year period from 2006 to 2015, only two quarterbacks with strong Hall of Fame prospects entered the league: Matt Ryan in 2008 and Russell Wilson in 2012.

And there aren’t that many franchise quarterbacks that entered during this time, either: Matthew Stafford in 2009, Cam Newton in 2011, and Andrew Luck in 2012 are the only that probably qualify. (And pickin’ nits s as to whether Ryan should be with this group, or Newton should be with the other group, is not relevant to this post.)

Heck, there weren’t even that many good starters that entered the league during this time 10-year period: the ones that qualify are Kirk Cousins, Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, Jay Cutler, and Derek Carr.

How about solid starters? Jameis Winston and Ryan Tannehill, maybe? The book has yet to be written on Jimmy Garoppolo or Teddy Bridgewater and Marcus Mariota, so perhaps they jump into this or one of the higher tiers over the next few years.

After that, you are looking at guys like Jason Campbell, Sam Bradford, Nick Foles, Colin Kaepernick, and Case Keenum as the other top guys. But in general, this was an ugly decade. [continue reading…]

On Monday, November 2nd, 1964, the country was talking about Lyndon Baines Johnson and Barry Goldwater, as the upcoming presidential election was just one day away. The NFL world was talking about Jim Brown, who a day earlier had become the first player to rush for 10,000 yards, and the Baltimore Colts, who had just won their 7th straight game. Fans of the AFL were talking about the Buffalo Bills, who had won yet again to bring their 1964 record to a perfect 8-0.

But if you look closely, there was some attention being paid to old George Blanda, the Houston Oilers quarterback who set a new pro football record by throwing 68 passes in a losing effort against those Bills. You might be wondering how did a 37-year-old quarterback in 1964 get away with throwing 68 passes? At the time, the single-game record by pass attempts by a team or player was 60, set by Davey O’Brien with the Philadelphia Eagles back in 1940. In the ensuing 23-and-a-half seasons, no team had hit 60 pass attempts again, and then Blanda and the Oilers threw 68 times on November 1st, 1964. In the next 24 seasons, no quarterback threw more than 62 passes in a game.

So, what happened on November 1st 1964 in western New York?

Let’s begin with the opponent. Blanda had a lot of success against the Bills in 1963: in two wins, he completed 30 of 56 passes for 475 yards with 6 TDs and 1 interception, back when those numbers were truly outstanding. [continue reading…]

In the early days of the NFL, a player needed to be at least five yards behind the line of scrimmage in order to be eligible to pass.  Beginning in 1933, that rule was eliminated, making a pass legal at any point behind the line of scrimmage.  The next year, a slimmer and more aerodynamic football was introduced to make life easier for passers.

In the 1937 NFL championship game, trailing for much of the game, the Redskins and Sammy Baugh set a single-game record with 40 pass attempts against the great Chicago Bears.  Baugh led the team on a great comeback and secured the title for Washington in a 28-21 victory.

But playoff games have a tendency to make teams move outside of their comfort zone; in the regular season no team even hit the 35-pass attempt mark until 1939.  On October 15th of that season, the Chicago Cardinals were obliterated by the Chicago Bears, 44-7. Playing with a terrible game script, the Cardinals finished 10 of 37 for 162 yards with no touchdowns and 6 interceptions. Hardly a blueprint for future offenses,  it was a record-setting game nonetheless.  The next season, the Detroit Lions also threw 37 times in a loss to the Bears in mid-November. The following week, the Philadelphia Eagles, led by Davey O’Brien, faced that same dominant Bears team and threw a (regular season) record 38 times in a losing effort.  In case you haven’t picked up on it, the Bears were very good in the late ’30s.

By 1940, the passing game began to take off, at least compared to the ground-and-pound days of the 1930s.  In the Eagles opener, the team threw 40 times in a loss to the Packers, setting a new record in the regular season. A month later, as the Rams trailed the Packers, the team threw a record 42 times!  This was a real shootout: Green Bay won by throwing 37 passes of their own, with remarkable success.

Two weeks later, O’Brien’s Eagles matched that number in a loss to Brooklyn.  Another two weeks later, Brooklyn faced Baugh’s Redskins and jumped out to an early lead.  Washington responded with — are you sitting down? — 47 passes in a comeback that fell just short.  It was a historic performance: Baugh set a new record with 23 completions on 44 attempts.

As the 1940 season concluded, the Redskins looked like the best team in the NFL.  They were 9-2 entering the final game of the season, and had just defeated the second-best team (the Bears) two weeks earlier.  The worst team in the NFL?  That would be Davey O’Brien’s Philadelphia Eagles, who began the season 0-9, and then eeked by with a 7-3 victory against the struggling Pittsburgh Steelers. [continue reading…]

Scoring soared in the aftermath of World War II, but quickly dropped off in the middle of the 1950s. Scoring fell to its nadir in 1977, prompting the 1978 rules changes regarding pass blocking and pass coverage. After another lull in the early nineties, scoring has steadily increased over the last twenty years. It reached a peak in 2013 and nearly matched that again in 2018, before a a slight dip in 2019. Take a look at the average points per game for all NFL teams (i.e., excluding the AFL) since 1950:

You might think that the increase in scoring is due to the passing game becoming more dominant in modern times, but that’s hardly the full story. There are more passing touchdowns now, but they have also to some extent just taken touchdowns that would have otherwise been rushing touchdowns. Over the last 5 years, teams have scored about 16.6 points per game on passing plus rushing touchdowns, if we assign 7 points to each touchdown. That’s noticeably higher than how things were in the ’90s and ’00s, and much higher than the ’70s, but it’s lower than NFL life was in the ’50s and much of the ’60s.

One undeniable fact of life is that field goals have become a much bigger part of the game. The graph below assigns 7 points to all passing, rushing, and other touchdowns, and 3 points to all field goals. It then shows how many points per team game have come from each of those four categories. [continue reading…]

Every season, I like to look at each team’s fumble recovery data. The evidence suggests that when the ball is on the ground, teams aren’t better or worse at recovering those fumbles; in other words, the recovery is driven more by randomness than skill.

Let’s begin with looking at fumbles from the perspective of the offensive team. The New Orleans Saints had the fewest fumbles in the league last season, at just 9. Even more impressive, the Saints lost just two fumbles all year! Of course, that luck didn’t hold up in the postseason: New Orleans lost a critical fumble in the team’s opening playoff game, contributing to the surprise loss to the Vikings.

On average, the fumbling team recovered (or the ball went out of bounds, so the fumbling team retained possession) 53.5% of all fumbles in 2019. No team was “luckier” at recovering their own fumbles than the Saints, but the Broncos actually gained the biggest advantage due to having fumbled much more often. Denver fumbled 21 times last season; that means we would “expect” the Broncos to lose 9.75 of those fumbles. In reality, the team lost just 6 fumbles, meaning Denver recovered 3.75 more fumbles than we would have been expected. Non-QBs for the Broncos fumbled 10 times, but they lost just 2 of those fumbles.

The least fortunate team was the Colts. In 2019, Indianapolis fumbled 18 times, and lost 11 of them! Jacoby Brissett himself lost 5 of 7 fumbles. The table below shows the full fumble data for each offense in 2019: [continue reading…]

In March of 2011, the NFL voted to move kickoffs up from the 30 to the 35-yard line. That impact has been significant, and the league responded by placing a greater emphasis on kickers who can boom kickoffs into the opposing end zone.

In 2016, the NFL moved up where offenses would start following a touchback from the 20 to the 25-yard line, which made returners more likely to just take a touchback. That impact has been marginal.

The graph below shows the percentage of kickoffs that resulted in a touchback in each of the last 25 seasons. [continue reading…]

On average, the 2019 Lions were underdogs each week by 4 to 4.5 points. Detroit was only favored to win three games, and was an underdog of more than a touchdown in five games. The team was not very good in the first half of the season (3-4-1), but things went particularly south once Matthew Stafford went down due to injury. The Lions went 0-8 in the second half of the season, with Jeff Driskel (0-3) and David Blough (0-5) splitting those starts.

But there’s something pretty unusual in those splits. In 8 home games, the Lions were underdogs by an average of 4.6 points. In 8 road games, the Lions were underdogs by an average of 3.9 points. Given that home field advantage is usually worth 3 points, you’d expect a team to be favored by about 6 more points — on average — in home games than in road games. But the 2019 Lions were actually favored to do better on the road than at home! That is exceedingly rare: it has only happened a handful of times in the last 40 years.

So, what happened? You might think this has something to do with Stafford, but that’s not really the case: he was healthy for 4 home and 4 road games. Here are the full season results: [continue reading…]

In general, more passing yards should be better than fewer passing yards. But we know that due to Game Script, teams that are trailing late in games throw much more frequently — and can rack up the passing yards — than teams with a lead.

So, if you know nothing else other than that a team threw for more passing yards than its opponent, would you guess that team won or lost?

And how would you guess that answer would change over time?

For the first question, let’s look at 2019. Last season, the team that threw for more gross passing yards went 136-119-1, so that’s a small but clear edge for the team that threw for more passing yards.  In the graph below, I’ve shown the number of passing yards by each winning team (in blue) and its opponent (in orange) in each game.  The X-Axis shows the difference between the passing yards for the winning team and the passing yards for the losing team. There are a few more dots to the right side of the graph than the left, which is because the winning team more often than not threw for more yards.  This is a fun graph, because it also lets you see how many games are in each category based on the size of the difference.

[continue reading…]