Seven years ago, I wrote about game-winning touchdowns.  A touchdown qualifies as a game-winning touchdown if all of the following four criteria are met:

• It occurs in the 4th quarter or in overtime;
• The scoring team was not winning prior to the touchdown
• The scoring team was winning after the touchdown, including the extra point ^[1]However, if a team was down by 7, scored a touchdown, went for two and converted, that touchdown does not count as a game-winning touchdown.  So in this Cowboys/Giants game from 2018, Dallas was … Continue reading; and
• If the touchdown (plus point after) gave the winning team more points than the losing team scored all game. So if a team is down 21-17 and scores a touchdown to go ahead 24-21, and that team ultimately wins 31-27, that does not count as a game-winning touchdown.  But if they win 31-21, it does.

Got it? Great.  I looked at all games, regular and postseason, in the NFL, AFL, and AAFC and counted all game-winning touchdowns by this metric.  As it was in 2013, Marcus Allen remains the all-time leader in game-winning touchdowns.  He had 10 game-winning touchdowns, in the following games: [continue reading…]

In 1960, Cleveland’s Milt Plum was the most efficient passer in the NFL. He arguably outshined teammate and running back Jim Brown, who was in his prime and finished as the leader in rushing yards while averaging 5.8 yards per carry. Cleveland led the NFL in points scored, and Plum finished with a passer rating of 110, more than 10 points higher than any player achieved in the decade of the ’50s. In three games against the Steelers, Eagles, and Cardinals, he went 37-for-51 for 791 yards with 5 TDs and 0 interceptions! Cleveland was probably the best team in the NFL in 1960 due to the presence of Plum, Jim Brown, Bobby Mitchell, and Ray Renfro on offense, but the Browns had a 1-3-1 record in one-score games. As a result, the team’s 8-3-1 record left them as the runner up to the Philadelphia Eagles for the 1960 NFL East division crown. Philadelphia was a great team, of course, too, but the team’s 10-2 record was boosted by a 5-1 mark in games decided by a touchdown or less, including a last-second win over Cleveland that changed the season:

With time running down, the Eagles took over at their 10 yard line. Van Brocklin passed to Retzlaff for 27 yards and then McDonald for 12 to just short of midfield. However, it appeared that Cleveland would win when safety Bobby Franklin came up with an interception, but LB Vince Costello was flagged for pass interference and the Eagles, instead of losing the ball, now had a first down at the Browns 30. [continue reading…]

Let’s review the passing games of the 2001 Raiders and the 2018 Raiders. Both teams were coached by Jon Gruden and had similar passing yardage totals: the 2018 Raiders gained 4,057 receiving yards (i.e., gross passing yards before deducting sack yards lost), while the 2001 version gained 3,862 receiving yards. But how those passing offenses were constructed were very different. ^[1]It is noteworthy, but not the intent of this post, that the 2001 Raiders passing offense was also much better. Oakland ranked 4th in passing yards in 2001, and more notably, 4th in ANY/A. The 2018 … Continue reading

In 2001, Gruden’s offense was largely centered around the team’s two top wide receivers, a pass-catching running back, and a tight end, in that order: Tim Brown had 1,165 receiving yards, Jerry Rice had 1,139, Charlie Garner gained 578 yards, and Roland Williams gained 298 yards.  Brown and Rice combined for 60% of the team’s receiving yards, and the quartet gained 82% of Oakland’s passing yards. Jerry Porter, the team’s third wide receiver, was limited to 220 receiving yards, while fullback Jon Ritchie (154) was the only other player with 100 receiving yards. That did not stand out as unusual for the era. [continue reading…]

A few months ago, I calculated the concentration index for each passing offense in the NFL.  For new readers, don’t be scared: a passing offense’s Concentration Index is simple to calculate, and it measures how concentrated a team’s passing offense is among a small or large number of players.  To calculate, you take each player’s receiving yards and divide that by his team’s total receiving yards.  Once you get that number, you square it, and then do that for each player on the offense and add the totals.  The most concentrated passing offense in 2019 was in New Orleans. For the Saints, Michael Thomas gained 38.9%; the square of that is 15.2%.  Jared Cook was second on the team with 705 yards, or 15.9% of the team’s receiving yards; the square of that number is 2.5%.  Do this for every player, and the Saints have a total Concentration Index of 21.1%… which is highly concentrated, at least by 2019 standards.  Here is the full table: [continue reading…]

Yesterday, I looked at the NFL teams since 1970 that got the most (in terms of winning percentage) out of their passing games. These were teams that were dragged down by their passing offense. Today, the opposite: passing offenses that were dragged down by the rest of the team.

And let’s begin with Manning. Because no passing offense was ever let down more by the rest of his team than one of Manning’s dome teams. Of course, I am referring to Archie Manning and the 1980 Saints, who went 1-15 despite having an above-average passing offense. New Orleans finished 6th in completion percentage and 10th in ANY/A in 1980, but New Orleans allowed a then-record 6,218 yards of offense to opponents season. The Saints allowed 487 points, a mark that still ranks as the worst in franchise history.

Behind Manning, the Saints averaged 5.19 Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, which was +0.33 better than league average. As a result, this means among all teams since 1970, the ’80 Saints were 0.28 standard deviations better than average at passing. However, with a 1-15 mark, those Saints were 2.27 standard deviations below average at winning. Using the methodology described yesterday, this means the 1980 Saints get a grade of -2.55, indicating an extreme lack of help for the passing offense. That is the worst result of any team since the merger.

The next 3 teams on the list are all 49ers teams. In 2000, Jeff Garcia, Terrell Owens, a 38-year-old Jerry Rice, and Charlie Garner powered one of the best offenses in the NFL. The 49ers ranked in the top 5 in yards per play and led the league in turnovers… and yet went 6-10, thanks to a defense and special teams that was just as bad as the 49ers offense was good. In 1982, the strike-shortened season, Joe Montana and Dwight Clark were a lethal combination, but the team won 3 games, blew 3 games in the 4th quarter, and lost another 3 games. Montana and the 49ers had the best passing attack in the NFC that season, but a defense that significantly regressed. And in 1979, in the first year of Bill Walsh, San Francisco had a similar situation: Steve DeBerg and the 49ers had an above-average passing offense, but the defense couldn’t stop a nosebleed, ranking in the bottom 3 in both ANY/A and points allowed.

The full results, below: [continue reading…]

The 2005 Bears were a work of art.  Coached by Lovie Smith, with Ron Turner (OC) and Ron Rivera (DC) at his side, the Bears clinched the NFC North with an 11-4 record in week 16.  The Bears did this despite having one of the worst passing offenses in the NFL: at the time, Chicago ranked 31st in passer rating, passing yards, and passing touchdowns, only eclipsing the 49ers in all three categories.  Therefore, it’s fair to say that the team’s success was overwhelmingly due to a dominant defense and a solid running game powered by Thomas Jones (the special teams were not particularly good, either).

In fact, by one measure, the 2005 Bears got more out of bad QB play than any other team since 1970.  How did I measure that? [continue reading…]