In Part I, we learned that there is a correlation between 40-yard dash times and wide receiver success in the NFL.

In Part II, we learned that there is a correlation between 40-yard dash times and where a wide receivers gets drafted.

Today: have NFL teams been properly evaluating 40-yard dash times when drafting wide receivers?

My plan *was* going to be as follows.  Let’s break things down into two buckets: wide receivers who were drafted much higher than their 40 time would indicate, and wide receivers who were drafted much lower than their 40 time would indicate. Then, see which category fared better. Should be easy, right?

On one hand, you have players like Larry Fitzgerald and Peter Warrick: wide receivers who were bringing something to the table besides their 40-time. Fitzgerald ran the 40 in 4.48 seconds yet was drafted 3rd overall. Warrick ran it in 4.58 seconds and was the 4th overall pick! Both players were dominant in college but not known for their speed: NFL executives certainly didn’t put too much weight in their 40 times when evaluating those guys. To the extent you think NFL teams always overweight the 40, Fitzgerald and Warrick are too good reminders that that is not the case. [continue reading…]

Update:

The 2021 NFL Draft saw 156.7 points of draft value spent on quarterbacks, the 2nd-most in NFL history behind only 1999.  As expected, Lawrence and Wilson were the first two picks, with Lance going third overall.  The fourth quarterback didn’t go off the board until the 11th pick, which was a bit of a surprise: that was Fields to Chicago, and the fifth quarterback (Jones) went to New England at 15.  Trask, Mond, and Mills were indeed seen as the best of the rest, and went in the span of four picks in the 60s.  The margin was so close that had Fields been selected with the 8th overall pick, and the rest of the quarterbacks were chosen in the same spot, then the 2021 Draft would have exceeded the ’99 Draft in terms of draft capital spent on quarterbacks.

The rest of the original article is below.

The 2021 NFL Draft looks to be extremely quarterback heavy. The Jaguars are going to select Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence with the first overall pick, and the expectation is that the Jets will draft BYU passer Zach Wilson with the second selection.  The 49ers will likely draft a quarterback with the third pick, too, and the rumors are that it could be Alabama QB Mac Jones, or Ohio State’s Justin Fields, or even North Dakota State’s Trey Lance; regardless, all five quarterbacks are expected to go in the first round, and perhaps even all in the top ten!  Three other quarterbacks — Stanford’s Davis Mills, Florida’s Kyle Trask, and Texas A&M’s Kellen Mond could have early picks used on them, too.

The most QB-heavy draft in NFL history was not the famous 1983 Draft — which featured three HOF passers and six quarterbacks selected in the first round — but rather the 1999 Draft.  That year, quarterbacks were taken with the first three picks, and two more were drafted in the top fifteen; second, third, and two fourth round picks were also used on quarterbacks.

I looked at every NFL Draft since 1950 and calculated how much draft capital was spent on quarterbacks each year.  The picture below shows those results, using the Football Perspective Draft Value Chart.

Let’s say that in the 2021 Draft, Lawrence/Wilson/Fields go with the first three picks, Lance and Jones get selected at 7 and 9, and as The Athletic’s Mock Draft by Dane Brugler provides, Mills goes to the Patriots in the middle of the second round, Mond is taken by the Bears a few picks later, and Trask is a fourth round pick by the Vikings.  If no other quarterbacks are selected in the top 224, that would mean that the draft capital spent on quarterbacks in 2021 was equal to 159 points using the Football Perspective Draft Value Chart.  That would, by a hair, make this the most quarterback-heavy draft in NFL history, as the ’99 Draft had 158.6 points of draft capital spent on quarterbacks. And if quarterbacks go 1-2-3-4 to start the Draft, that would up the allocation to 162.6 points. It seems very likely that 2021 will be either the #1 or #2 quarterback draft in NFL history, at least according to draft capital spent on the position.

Warmest regards, friends of the program. Today marks the 19th installment of the Grand List, in which I rank the top one thousand professional football players in history (whose careers preceded or included a good chunk of time in the NFL). In this section, we’ll look at players 299-250. It’s a portion of the list that includes a few players you may expect to see rank much higher, as well as a few players who may have you wondering why they were included in the top 1000 at all. Opinions are all my own and are derived from far too much time studying a meaningless game over a period of about thirty years. If you disagree, that’s great. If all lists looked the same, what a boring life that would be.

Previous articles in the series

The Grand List, part 1: Includes honorable/special mentions and players 1000-990.
The Grand List, part 2: Includes players 989-965.
The Grand List, part 3: Includes players 964-940.
The Grand List, part 4: Includes players 939-901.
The Grand List, part 5: Includes players 900-876.
The Grand List, part 6: Includes players 875-851.
The Grand List, part 7: Includes players 850-810.
The Grand List, part 8: Includes players 809-780.
The Grand List, part 9: Includes players 779-750.
The Grand List, part 10: Includes players 749-700.
The Grand List, part 11: Includes players 699-650.
The Grand List, part 12: Includes players 649-600.
The Grand List, part 13: Includes players 599-550.
The Grand List, part 14: Includes players 549-500.
The Grand List, part 15: Includes players 499-450.
The Grand List, part 16: Includes players 449-400.
The Grand List, part 17: Includes players 399-350.
The Grand List, part 18: Includes players 349-300.

Let’s go, babies.

[continue reading…]