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Overtime in the Playoffs From 2011 Through 2021

The 2009 NFC Championship Game was a classic game featuring two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks in Brett Favre and Drew Brees. The Vikings battled the Saints in the Superdome to a 28-28 tie after four quarters. New Orleans won the coin toss, giving Brees and the offense the ball first. The Saints appeared to go three-and-out, but an incomplete pass on third down was negated by a defensive holding penalty. The Saints got to the Vikings 41-yard line, and a pass interference penalty gave them another 12 yards. A couple of minutes later, and Garrett Hartley hit a 40-yard field goal to send New Orleans to the Super Bowl.

It was an anticlimactic ending to a great game. After battling for four quarters, the Saints — aided by a pair of penalties — drove 39 yards in 10 plays to set up a chip shot field goal and won the game. The coin toss was too significant a factor in the game, critics felt, especially as kickers were becoming automatic at longer and longer distances.

So beginning in 2011, the NFL changed the rules: the team that wins the coin toss can’t win the game on a field goal. It must score a touchdown, or else the other team would get the ball, too. That would make the flip of the coin a bit less valuable, or so we were told.

Since then, there have been 11 overtime games played during the NFL playoffs. The team that won the coin toss has won 10 of those games. Let’s walk down memory lane: [continue reading…]

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Do Championships Matter?

Adam Steele comes to us today with a philosophical question regarding the nature of fandom. We thank him for it.


After a weekend in which all four games were coin flips decided on the final play, I started thinking about how much the results actually matter to fans in the long run. We’ve had the primacy of titles drilled into our heads throughout our lives – hoisting the Lombardi trophy is why you play the game, there’s only one winner and 31 losers, etc. And sure, in the most literal sense, attempting to win a championship is the reason we hold a season every year.

But how much do championships really matter to fans? My sense is that they matter far less than you’d initially think. If you ask a group of fans to name their most cherished football memories, a majority of their answers will probably not be related to winning it all.

Think about all the amazing player seasons throughout football history. The vast majority of them did not result in a ring. Did fans of Randy Moss, Barry Sanders, Dan Marino, or J.J. Watt enjoy their heroes less because they don’t have the jewelry? Doubtful. It’s more likely that fans will wax poetic about how they got to watch these legends play.

In many cases, even average players and coaches on perennially losing franchises become local heroes in their communities. Fans fall in love with players they feel a connection with irrespective of the number of titles those athletes bring home. This is why long suffering fanbases of ringless teams often have the most loyal and devoted followers; it’s more about the journey than the destination.

Quantifying Fan Priorities

There’s actually pretty strong empirical evidence that championships are not the most important thing to fans. From 2003-2016, ESPN ran a series called Ultimate Standings (insert hyperlink ESPN The Magazine’s 2016 Ultimate Standings). They surveyed fans across all four major North American sports to come up with a formula for determining which teams reward their fans the most. The responses were whittled down into seven broad categories, weighted by importance:

Fan relations – 27%
Money spent per win – 27%
Players – 15%
Ownership – 13%
Stadium experience – 12%
Championships – 4%
Coaching – 3%

Well look at that! Championships are way down the list of things that fans consider important. Teams that make a genuine effort to connect to their communities engender loyal fans regardless of on-field results. Regular season wins matter but only if fans aren’t being gouged in the process; less frequent winning is acceptable if being a diehard fan is affordable for the average Joe. Players are judged by their effort and likability more than their performance. Having a solid ownership situation and a fun stadium to attend are also several times more important than past or potential championships.

Does this post resonate with you? What are your favorite memories as a sports fan? Would you trade those memories for a championship? Let me know in the comments.

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Resting Starters

Adam Steele is back again, this time with a look at teams resting their starters over the years. Bless him.


Over the past few years I’ve been documenting the historical instances of teams resting their starters in late season games. I like to remove such games when comparing teams since even a single upside down result can warp a club’s statistical profile (especially since these meaningless games disproportionately affect the best teams in a given season). Now that the 2021 regular season is complete, I figured I might as well share this database with FP readers in hopes that some of you might find it useful or interesting. [continue reading…]

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Jonathan Taylor had a season for the ages. Here are the top 10 yards per carry seasons by a running back with at least 300 carries:

 
Games Rushing
Rk Player Age Draft Tm Lg Year
G GS Att Yds Y/A TD Y/G
1 Jonathan Taylor 22 2-41 IND NFL 2021 17 17 332 1811 5.45 18 106.5
2 Adrian Peterson 27 1-7 MIN NFL 2012 16 16 348 2097 6.03 12 131.1
3 Chris Johnson 24 1-24 TEN NFL 2009 16 16 358 2006 5.60 14 125.4
4 Frank Gore 23 3-65 SFO NFL 2006 16 16 312 1695 5.43 8 105.9
5 Barry Sanders* 29 1-3 DET NFL 1997 16 16 335 2053 6.13 11 128.3
6 Barry Sanders* 26 1-3 DET NFL 1994 16 16 331 1883 5.69 7 117.7
7 Eric Dickerson* 24 1-2 RAM NFL 1984 16 16 379 2105 5.55 14 131.6
8 Walter Payton* 23 1-4 CHI NFL 1977 14 14 339 1852 5.46 14 132.3
9 O.J. Simpson* 28 1-1 BUF NFL 1975 14 14 329 1817 5.52 16 129.8
10 O.J. Simpson* 26 1-1 BUF NFL 1973 14 14 332 2003 6.03 12 143.1

 

He joined Jim Brown, Jim Taylor, O.J. Simpson, Walter Payton, and Clinton Portis as the only players to average 100 rushing yards and 1 rushing TD per game while having a YPC average of at least 5.4. But perhaps most remarkably, he won the rushing crown by over 500 yards. If that sounds like a lot to you, it’s because it is. The last time a player run the rushing crown by such a large margin was Simpson back in his record-breaking 2,000 yard 1973 season. [continue reading…]

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The penultimate week of the season was an odd one from a statistical standpoint. QBR and PFF mostly agreed (for once), but some of the boxscores straight up lied to us about how well quarterbacks played. We saw 45 touchdown passes and 32 QB turnovers, and that’s standard fare for a late season week in today’s NFL. However, according to PFF graders, quarterbacks registered 36 big time throws and a whopping 55 turnover worthy plays!

Let’s look at the week 17 rankings then take a closer look at some of these misleading statlines: [continue reading…]

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Pick a QB, any QB: there are no right answers.

The 2018 NFL Draft was supposed to change the landscape of the NFL at the quarterback position. Maybe not right away, of course, but in a few years — say, 2021? — the five quarterbacks selected in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft would be the stars of the day. Instead, Josh Rosen flamed out immediately, Sam Darnold proved to be underwhelming under three different coaches, and Baker Mayfield’s stock fell dramatically in his fourth year. Even Lamar Jackson, the 2019 AP MVP, has fallen off; after a notable dropoff in play from 2019 to 2020, he fell further in an injury-plagued 2021. At this point, only Josh Allen is an unimpeachable franchise quarterback, but even he has seen a significant decline in passing efficiency this season.

All told, the 2018 first round quarterbacks as a group have been decidedly below average as passers this season, with three of the four starters (excluding Rosen) being in the bottom five of the NFL in interception rate.

This made me curious: which draft classes have been the most productive in 2021? With 17 weeks in the books — a traditional NFL regular season — here’s what I did. [continue reading…]

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