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Boxscore vs. PFF: Era in Review

Adam Steele is back with more analysis of traditional box score stats versus Pro Football Focus’s big time throw and turnover-worthy play metrics. And we thank him for it.


A couple of weeks ago, I compared TD/INT and BTT/TWP numbers for the 2021 season. Today we’ll be looking at the entire Pro Football Focus era going back to 2006.

Before compiling the data, I hypothesized that TD/INT and BTT/TWP would track in relative lockstep, though perhaps the upward slope of the PFF metrics would be less severe. That turns out to be true for 2006-07 and 2014-21, but oh boy was there some wackiness taking place in between. In the graph below, you’ll see league TD-INT difference in blue and league BTT-TWP difference in red: [continue reading…]

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From the Archives: 2019 GridFe Hall of Fame Defense

The following article originally appeared on the now-defunct GridFe website but never found its way to Football Perspective after Adam Steele and I decided to shut things down in our little corner of the internet. For the sake of having a reference, I have decided to republish in Chase’s space. Below is the article as originally published following the 2018 season.


Last year, I unveiled the GridFe Hall of Fame, a group effort of football diehards dissatisfied with (and unencumbered by the logistical limitations of) the Pro Football Hall of Fame. [1]The GrideFe Hall of Fame Committee comprises research guru Topher Doll, standard human Bryan Frye, actual genius Adam Harstad, enigmatic fount of knowledge Raider Joe, potentate of … Continue reading This Hall of Fame has very few rules outside of a minimum five “yea” votes out of a possible six for enshrinement. We have no waiting period for induction. If it’s obvious that Tom Brady belongs, he’s in; if we need to take some time to put Julio Jones‘s stats into perspective, we will. We don’t have contribution silos. I didn’t vote for John Madden solely as a coach but as a coach, influential broadcaster, and video game pioneer. [continue reading…]

References

References
1 The GrideFe Hall of Fame Committee comprises research guru Topher Doll, standard human Bryan Frye, actual genius Adam Harstad, enigmatic fount of knowledge Raider Joe, potentate of prognostication Thomas McDermott, and quarterback aficionado Adam Steele.
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From the Archives: 2019 GridFe Hall of Fame Offense

The following article originally appeared on the now-defunct GridFe website but never found its way to Football Perspective after Adam Steele and I decided to shut things down in our little corner of the internet. For the sake of having a reference, I have decided to republish in Chase’s space. Below is the article as originally published following the 2018 season.


The GridFe Hall of Fame 2019 class features no quarterbacks and is heavy on running backs, tight ends, and linemen. [1]The only quarterback who received votes got just two of them. Meanwhile, several linemen just missed the cut. Unlike the defensive hall of fame class, the offense features no active players. In fact, the most recent player last played in 1988. Perhaps that’s indicative of more clearly worthy defensive players in today’s league, or maybe it simply means more voters have taken a wait-and-see approach with regards to positions that have seen significant stat inflation in recent years. [2]An alternative theory is that we voted for all the worthy offensive players in the inaugural class. Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Adrian Peterson, Larry Fitzgerald, Jason Witten, and Antonio … Continue reading It’s outlandish to believe that with greater talent than ever before, only one hall of fame caliber wide receiver has entered the league in the last twenty years. Is it possible we have exercised too much caution with modern players? I don’t know, but it’s certainly possible. Below are eight inductees for this year’s class. Read and determine for yourself. [3]Others receiving votes: Len Dawson, Curtis Martin, Ollie Matson*, Bobby Mitchell*, Elroy Hirsch, Pete Pihos*, Rayfield Wright*, Jim Tyrer*, Gary Zimmerman*, Joe DeLamielleure*

GridFe Hall of Fame Offense

Marion Motley (1946-1955)
Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers
5 First Team All Pros (4 AAFC/1 NFL), 1 Pro Bowl, 6 Title Wins, 3 Title Losses, 1 GridFe World Award (AAFC), 1 GridFe Sweetness Award, 1 GridFe Supersonic Award, 7 GridFe Motley Awards (4 AAFC/3 NFL) [4]The Pro Bowl didn’t exist when Motley played in the AAFC, but he was worthy of the honor all four years. [continue reading…]

References

References
1 The only quarterback who received votes got just two of them. Meanwhile, several linemen just missed the cut.
2 An alternative theory is that we voted for all the worthy offensive players in the inaugural class. Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Adrian Peterson, Larry Fitzgerald, Jason Witten, and Antonio Gates are still playing. Rob Gronkowski and Joe Thomas were active when we began voting. I suspect with another season to evaluate their careers from a historical perspective, Julio Jones and Antonio Brown will garner more attention. If people are voting for Len Dawson, Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger may also join the discussion. Perhaps Marshal Yanda will receive the recognition from us he deserved from national media.
3 Others receiving votes: Len Dawson, Curtis Martin, Ollie Matson*, Bobby Mitchell*, Elroy Hirsch, Pete Pihos*, Rayfield Wright*, Jim Tyrer*, Gary Zimmerman*, Joe DeLamielleure*
4 The Pro Bowl didn’t exist when Motley played in the AAFC, but he was worthy of the honor all four years.
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Guest Post: Improving on TD:INT Ratio

Adam Steele is back with the crazy notion that we should stop using stochastic, binary events in ratio form as the basis for judging quarterbacks. Fancy that. We thank Adam for his ideas and analysis.


The most commonly cited quarterback stats in mainstream analysis are touchdown passes and interceptions, usually presented as TD/INT ratio. This essentially functions as shorthand to compare the quantity of a player’s great plays against his terrible plays. But this is quite unfortunate since both stats are very noisy and situation dependent. TD/INT ratio not only lacks important information but it can be downright misleading at times.

Luckily for us the good folks at Pro Football Focus have come up with a much better alternative: Big Time Throws (BTT) and Turnover Worthy Plays (TWP). These stats are tabulated by watching film so they capture far more signal than the process-blind box score numbers. Passers get credited with a BTT when they make a throw that goes well beyond what’s expected on a given play, and this includes passes which are dropped or wiped out by penalty. Meanwhile a TWP is charged when a throw is made that has a good chance of being intercepted (whether it’s actually picked or not), or when the QB gets careless with the ball during his dropback and fumbles when such an error could’ve been avoided. [continue reading…]

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