by Bryan Frye
on July 26, 2022
Adam Steele is back with more analysis of traditional box score stats versus Pro Football Focus’s big time throw and turnover-worthy play metrics. And we thank him for it.
A couple of weeks ago, I compared TD/INT and BTT/TWP numbers for the 2021 season. Today we’ll be looking at the entire Pro Football Focus era going back to 2006.
Before compiling the data, I hypothesized that TD/INT and BTT/TWP would track in relative lockstep, though perhaps the upward slope of the PFF metrics would be less severe. That turns out to be true for 2006-07 and 2014-21, but oh boy was there some wackiness taking place in between. In the graph below, you’ll see league TD-INT difference in blue and league BTT-TWP difference in red: [continue reading…]
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by Bryan Frye
on July 15, 2022
The following article originally appeared on the now-defunct GridFe website but never found its way to Football Perspective after Adam Steele and I decided to shut things down in our little corner of the internet. For the sake of having a reference, I have decided to republish in Chase’s space. Below is the article as originally published following the 2018 season.
Last year, I unveiled the GridFe Hall of Fame, a group effort of football diehards dissatisfied with (and unencumbered by the logistical limitations of) the Pro Football Hall of Fame. This Hall of Fame has very few rules outside of a minimum five “yea” votes out of a possible six for enshrinement. We have no waiting period for induction. If it’s obvious that Tom Brady belongs, he’s in; if we need to take some time to put Julio Jones‘s stats into perspective, we will. We don’t have contribution silos. I didn’t vote for John Madden solely as a coach but as a coach, influential broadcaster, and video game pioneer. [continue reading…]
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by Bryan Frye
on July 14, 2022
The following article originally appeared on the now-defunct GridFe website but never found its way to Football Perspective after Adam Steele and I decided to shut things down in our little corner of the internet. For the sake of having a reference, I have decided to republish in Chase’s space. Below is the article as originally published following the 2018 season.
The GridFe Hall of Fame 2019 class features no quarterbacks and is heavy on running backs, tight ends, and linemen. Unlike the defensive hall of fame class, the offense features no active players. In fact, the most recent player last played in 1988. Perhaps that’s indicative of more clearly worthy defensive players in today’s league, or maybe it simply means more voters have taken a wait-and-see approach with regards to positions that have seen significant stat inflation in recent years. It’s outlandish to believe that with greater talent than ever before, only one hall of fame caliber wide receiver has entered the league in the last twenty years. Is it possible we have exercised too much caution with modern players? I don’t know, but it’s certainly possible. Below are eight inductees for this year’s class. Read and determine for yourself.
GridFe Hall of Fame Offense
Marion Motley (1946-1955)
Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers
5 First Team All Pros (4 AAFC/1 NFL), 1 Pro Bowl, 6 Title Wins, 3 Title Losses, 1 GridFe World Award (AAFC), 1 GridFe Sweetness Award, 1 GridFe Supersonic Award, 7 GridFe Motley Awards (4 AAFC/3 NFL) [continue reading…]
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by Bryan Frye
on July 6, 2022
Adam Steele is back with the crazy notion that we should stop using stochastic, binary events in ratio form as the basis for judging quarterbacks. Fancy that. We thank Adam for his ideas and analysis.
The most commonly cited quarterback stats in mainstream analysis are touchdown passes and interceptions, usually presented as TD/INT ratio. This essentially functions as shorthand to compare the quantity of a player’s great plays against his terrible plays. But this is quite unfortunate since both stats are very noisy and situation dependent. TD/INT ratio not only lacks important information but it can be downright misleading at times.
Luckily for us the good folks at Pro Football Focus have come up with a much better alternative: Big Time Throws (BTT) and Turnover Worthy Plays (TWP). These stats are tabulated by watching film so they capture far more signal than the process-blind box score numbers. Passers get credited with a BTT when they make a throw that goes well beyond what’s expected on a given play, and this includes passes which are dropped or wiped out by penalty. Meanwhile a TWP is charged when a throw is made that has a good chance of being intercepted (whether it’s actually picked or not), or when the QB gets careless with the ball during his dropback and fumbles when such an error could’ve been avoided. [continue reading…]
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