In week 9, the Dolphins lost 21-14 to Kansas City. That game was notable because Tua Tagovailoa passed for 193 yards, slightly outgaining Patrick Mahomes, who threw for 185 yards in a winning effort. That doesn’t sound so unusual, especially given how close the totals were: Miami’s quarterback passed for more yards than Kansas City’s quarterback, and Miami lost the game.

But that was unusual: in fact, that is the only game this season where that happened for the Dolphins. In 12 games this year, Miami has had more gross passing yards (excluding sacks) than they have allowed; in those games, the Dolphins are 11-1. In four other games, opposing passers have more passing yards than Dolphins passers; the Dolphins are 0-4 in those games. So in 15 of 16 Miami Dolphins games, the team with more gross passing yards has also won the game.

And that is both rare and a perfect example of the 2023 season.  Because while Miami with Mike McDaniel  and Tua are outliers, the 2023 season is pretty big outlier, too.  In general, throughout the course of NFL history, there is not much of a correlation between which team has more passing yards and which team wins the game. As we know, teams that are trailing late in games throw more frequently — and can rack up the passing yards — than teams with a lead. The same reason you hear starts like “Team X is 15-2 when RB Y has 20 carries or more” is why passing yards isn’t all that correlated with winning. [continue reading…]