Last year, I wrote a two-part series on how teams were using more highly drafted players. In 2017, 50% of all passes came from players selected in the top 32 of the draft, but I suspected that 2018 could be even more tilted in favor of highly drafted players. The reasons I suspected all came true, namely:
- Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, and Josh Rosen all entering the NFL and potentially getting a significant number of pass attempts (all topped 300, as it turned out).
- Andrew Luck and to a lesser extent, Ryan Tannehill returned from injury.
- Patrick Mahomes became a starter, replacing 250th pick Trevor Siemian as an NFL starter, once you net out the Alex Smith (KC to WAS), Kirk Cousins (WAS to MIN), and Case Keenum (MIN to DEN) musical chairs. Deshaun Watson also became a full-time starter in 2018, but he actually falls below the median line as the 12th pick.
Thanks to those new starters, plus returning starters Eli Manning, Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton, Jameis Winston, Alex Smith, Mitchell Trubisky, Carson Wentz, Marcus Mariota, Matt Ryan, Blake Bortles, Philip Rivers and 101 pass attempts from Blaine Gabbert – and yes, those 101 attempts were necessary — 2018 was a record-setting year. Over half of all pass attempts in the NFL came from players drafted in the top 10 just the second time that’s happened since 1967 (the year of the common draft).
The graph below shows the median draft pick in each year, in terms of where 50% of all pass attempts came from players drafted with X pick or lower.
It is still very early, but my suspicion is this trend is unlikely to hold true in 2019 — Tannehill, Alex Smith, and Bortles are not projected as starters, and Miami, Washington, and Jacksonville seem likely than to replace them with players drafted outside of the top 10 (the Dolphins spot is still open, but Jacksonville is going with Nick Foles and Washington appears to be going with Case Keenum or Josh McCown). And at some point, Manning won’t get every start for the Giants. On the other hand, Winston, Mariota, and the 2018 1st round class didn’t start every game last year, so there’s some upside for top-10 picks in 2019, too.
But there’s no question that this trend is remarkable, especially compared to say, 2001. Ben Roethlisberger, drafted with the 11th pick, would be considered a “low” draft pick relative to the average starter in 2018. And Patrick Mahomes, the league MVP, just barely makes it into the top 16 of starting QBs as the 10th overall pick.