Adam Steele is back, and he’s eschewing the expository fluff (which I am re-adding, right here). Enjoy, friends.

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Here are this week’s quarterback rankings:

#	QB Week 11	EPA/P	QBR	zEPA/P	zQBR	zAvg
1	Taylor Heinicke	0.41	92.5	1.50	1.69	1.60
2	Aaron Rodgers	0.42	88.3	1.54	1.52	1.53
3	Justin Herbert	0.42	84.6	1.53	1.38	1.45
4	Kirk Cousins	0.46	77.9	1.74	1.13	1.43
5	Jimmy Garoppolo	0.43	80.0	1.58	1.21	1.39
6	Colt McCoy	0.33	76.2	1.11	1.06	1.08
7	Tua Tagovailoa	0.31	76.2	0.99	1.06	1.03
8	Carson Wentz	0.20	72.5	0.45	0.92	0.68
9	Tyrod Taylor	0.19	73.5	0.39	0.96	0.67
10	Tom Brady	0.21	65.4	0.48	0.65	0.56
11	Jalen Hurts	0.16	62.0	0.26	0.52	0.39
12	Joe Burrow	0.21	53.9	0.53	0.21	0.37
13	Cam Newton	0.10	64.8	-0.03	0.62	0.30
14	Andy Dalton	0.20	49.0	0.47	0.02	0.24
15	Ben Roethlisberger	0.08	59.4	-0.13	0.42	0.14
16	Mac Jones	0.06	36.9	-0.23	-0.45	-0.34
17	Joe Flacco	0.08	30.8	-0.14	-0.68	-0.41
18	Josh Allen	0.00	41.0	-0.53	-0.29	-0.41
19	Trevor Lawrence	0.06	29.1	-0.25	-0.74	-0.50
20	Tyler Huntley	-0.01	36.1	-0.61	-0.48	-0.54
21	Patrick Mahomes	-0.10	45.8	-1.03	-0.10	-0.57
22	Derek Carr	-0.03	33.8	-0.69	-0.56	-0.63
23	Russell Wilson	-0.02	22.4	-0.61	-1.00	-0.81
24	Ryan Tannehill	-0.04	19.2	-0.72	-1.12	-0.92
25	Matt Ryan	-0.09	23.3	-0.97	-0.97	-0.97
26	Baker Mayfield	-0.01	8.6	-0.61	-1.53	-1.07
27	Daniel Jones	-0.07	15.4	-0.87	-1.27	-1.07
28	Trevor Siemian	-0.27	20.6	-1.86	-1.07	-1.47
29	Dak Prescott	-0.21	10.0	-1.58	-1.48	-1.53
30	Tim Boyle	-0.24	6.7	-1.70	-1.60	-1.65

And the season rankings:

#	QB Season	EPA/P	QBR	zEPA/P	zQBR	zAvg
1	Aaron Rodgers	0.211	65.3	1.49	1.27	1.38
2	Matthew Stafford	0.190	67.9	1.17	1.49	1.33
3	Tom Brady	0.194	65.8	1.24	1.31	1.27
4	Justin Herbert	0.186	67.0	1.11	1.41	1.26
5	Kyler Murray	0.184	63.3	1.09	1.10	1.10
6	Jimmy Garoppolo	0.198	59.6	1.29	0.79	1.04
7	Jameis Winston	0.168	64.3	0.84	1.19	1.01
8	Kirk Cousins	0.170	59.1	0.87	0.75	0.81
9	Patrick Mahomes	0.154	57.2	0.63	0.59	0.61
10	Ryan Tannehill	0.159	54.0	0.71	0.33	0.52
11	Josh Allen	0.132	58.7	0.31	0.72	0.51
12	Tua Tagovailoa	0.127	58.0	0.23	0.66	0.44
13	Derek Carr	0.141	53.7	0.44	0.30	0.37
14	Joe Burrow	0.159	49.4	0.70	-0.06	0.32
15	Carson Wentz	0.119	56.1	0.11	0.50	0.30
16	Matt Ryan	0.129	52.3	0.26	0.18	0.22
17	Lamar Jackson	0.116	54.4	0.06	0.36	0.21
18	Mac Jones	0.130	50.2	0.28	0.01	0.14
19	Dak Prescott	0.116	51.3	0.06	0.10	0.08
20	Taylor Heinicke	0.131	48.5	0.28	-0.13	0.07
21	Jalen Hurts	0.107	52.0	-0.07	0.16	0.05
22	Teddy Bridgewater	0.128	47.3	0.24	-0.23	0.00
23	Ben Roethlisberger	0.080	43.8	-0.47	-0.53	-0.50
24	Russell Wilson	0.070	45.6	-0.63	-0.38	-0.50
25	Jacoby Brissett	0.029	50.1	-1.24	0.00	-0.62
26	Baker Mayfield	0.092	37.2	-0.30	-1.08	-0.69
27	Daniel Jones	0.068	40.8	-0.66	-0.78	-0.72
28	Sam Darnold	0.031	35.6	-1.21	-1.21	-1.21
29	Trevor Lawrence	0.005	35.0	-1.60	-1.26	-1.43
30	Justin Fields	0.028	25.8	-1.27	-2.03	-1.65
31	Davis Mills	0.001	30.5	-1.67	-1.64	-1.65
32	Zach Wilson	-0.014	27.0	-1.89	-1.93	-1.91
33	Jared Goff	-0.046	26.8	-2.38	-1.95	-2.16

For the first time this season, Aaron Rodgers sits atop the QB hierarchy. Rodgers’ 2014 and 2020 MVP campaigns both started off relatively mundane before going scorched Earth over the second half of the year. Perhaps history will repeat itself in 2021.

It wasn’t but a few weeks ago that I went on a diatribe about Justin Herbert being overrated, and now he’s vaulted up to fourth place. Time to eat some crow on that one. I still think certain pundits drool over Herbert’s near perfect measurables a bit too much (Al and Cris on SNF), but at least he’s started backing up the hype with performance to match.

I’m not going to speculate over who will win the MVP this week, but I do feel compelled to pen a mini-rant about someone who won’t win it. After an impressive win over Green Bay this weekend, there’s been social media chatter about Kirk Cousins playing at an MVP level. I’ve seen the phrase ‘criminally underrated’ attached to his name multiple times since Sunday.

On the surface Cousins does appear to be having a fantastic season. He currently sits first in TD/INT ratio, third in Passer Rating, and third in ANY/A. However, as has been the case throughout his career, basic boxscore stats paper over the deficiencies in Cousins’ game. Looking at more advanced metrics, Kirk ranks seventh in EPA per play and eighth in QBR. Not bad by any stretch but not exactly MVP territory.

But if we look at how Cousins’ stats translate to team level success, the picture gets far uglier. His Vikings only rank 19th in yards per drive and 17th in points per drive. That’s despite playing with a superstar WR, superstar RB, and playing his home games indoors where scoring is more plentiful. This is why Cousins has long been derided for racking up hollow numbers. For whatever reason, his style of play lends itself to a glittery boxscore more than it does to actually winning games.

There is one basic (but ignored) stat that reveals a glitch in the Kirk Cousins matrix: first down rate. Despite being near the top in Passer Rating and ANY/A, Cousins is only 19th in first downs per dropback. That’s almost hard to believe, but it’s true. How can a quarterback rack up yards, touchdowns, and avoid turnovers so efficiently without moving the chains in the process? I haven’t dug through the play-by-play enough to know for sure, but it’s likely a result of too many completions that actually lower his team’s chance of scoring (often referred to as failed completions). Cousins will settle for a checkdown rather than pushing it down the field and risking an incompletion or interception, even if the latter choice is better for the Viking’s bottom line.

Let’s take a look at 1D% this season:

#	Player	Att	Sk	1D	1D%
1	Matthew Stafford	362	14	148	39.4%
2	Dak Prescott	329	16	134	38.8%
3	Kyler Murray	256	18	103	37.6%
4	Patrick Mahomes	449	20	175	37.3%
5	Tom Brady	423	12	162	37.2%
6	Josh Allen	382	15	144	36.3%
7	Aaron Rodgers	328	20	126	36.2%
8	Jimmy Garoppolo	254	16	97	35.9%
9	Justin Herbert	394	18	148	35.9%
10	Lamar Jackson	309	28	116	34.4%
11	Joe Burrow	315	28	118	34.4%
12	Tua Tagovailoa	203	8	71	33.6%
13	Ryan Tannehill	368	31	134	33.6%
14	Matt Ryan	350	20	123	33.2%
15	Baker Mayfield	275	27	100	33.1%
16	Teddy Bridgewater	321	27	114	32.8%
17	Taylor Heinicke	328	22	114	32.6%
18	Jameis Winston	161	11	56	32.6%
19	Kirk Cousins	374	14	126	32.5%
20	Derek Carr	374	22	128	32.3%
21	Mac Jones	349	22	118	31.8%
22	Jalen Hurts	320	20	105	30.9%
23	Russell Wilson	191	20	65	30.8%
24	Carson Wentz	354	18	114	30.6%
25	Ben Roethlisberger	343	21	110	30.2%
26	Sam Darnold	306	22	98	29.9%
27	Jared Goff	333	26	107	29.8%
28	Daniel Jones	331	21	104	29.5%
29	Jacoby Brissett	225	18	69	28.4%
30	Justin Fields	198	31	63	27.5%
31	Trevor Lawrence	356	19	101	26.9%
32	Davis Mills	209	20	60	26.2%
33	Zach Wilson	181	19	50	25.0%

As you can see, there is a strong correlation between moving the chains and scoring points. This may sound like a painfully obvious observation, but remember that first downs are largely ignored in the evaluation of offensive players. Tying this back to Kirk Cousins, it’s pretty clear that his inability to gain first downs is a direct contributor to his team’s 5-5 record despite the other lovely numbers he’s compiled.

I hope you all have a happy Thanksgiving!