After offenses lit up the scoreboard in week five, we were treated to the poorest quarterbacking of the year in week six. Both DYAR and QBR hit their low points in the 2021 season. What’s shocking is that this happened with the Jets on their bye week!
| # | QB Week 6 | DYAR | QBR | zDYAR | zQBR | zAvg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derek Carr | 129 | 85.2 | 1.32 | 1.83 | 1.57 |
| 2 | Aaron Rodgers | 97 | 80.1 | 0.95 | 1.58 | 1.26 |
| 3 | Tom Brady | 131 | 69.1 | 1.34 | 1.04 | 1.19 |
| 4 | Kirk Cousins | 160 | 61.8 | 1.68 | 0.68 | 1.18 |
| 5 | Dak Prescott | 167 | 52.3 | 1.76 | 0.21 | 0.99 |
| 6 | Matthew Stafford | 81 | 71.3 | 0.77 | 1.14 | 0.96 |
| 7 | Ryan Tannehill | 81 | 70.0 | 0.77 | 1.08 | 0.92 |
| 8 | Josh Allen | 77 | 59.9 | 0.72 | 0.59 | 0.65 |
| 9 | Carson Wentz | 56 | 63.3 | 0.48 | 0.75 | 0.62 |
| 10 | Tua Tagovailoa | 30 | 62.3 | 0.18 | 0.70 | 0.44 |
| 11 | Kyler Murray | 28 | 61.8 | 0.16 | 0.68 | 0.42 |
| 12 | Trevor Lawrence | 53 | 53.1 | 0.44 | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| 13 | Joe Burrow | -5 | 62.6 | -0.23 | 0.72 | 0.25 |
| 14 | Patrick Mahomes | 11 | 51.4 | -0.04 | 0.17 | 0.06 |
| 15 | Lamar Jackson | -55 | 61.9 | -0.80 | 0.68 | -0.06 |
| 16 | Mac Jones | 7 | 46.3 | -0.09 | -0.08 | -0.08 |
| 17 | Justin Fields | 9 | 40.6 | -0.06 | -0.36 | -0.21 |
| 18 | Jalen Hurts | 11 | 39.7 | -0.04 | -0.40 | -0.22 |
| 19 | Ben Roethlisberger | -1 | 38.2 | -0.18 | -0.48 | -0.33 |
| 20 | Teddy Bridgewater | 14 | 30.3 | -0.01 | -0.87 | -0.44 |
| 21 | Baker Mayfield | -8 | 34.8 | -0.26 | -0.65 | -0.45 |
| 22 | Sam Darnold | -92 | 33.8 | -1.23 | -0.69 | -0.96 |
| 23 | Geno Smith | -58 | 24.5 | -0.84 | -1.15 | -0.99 |
| 24 | Jared Goff | -20 | 13.3 | -0.40 | -1.70 | -1.05 |
| 25 | Justin Herbert | -53 | 18.6 | -0.78 | -1.44 | -1.11 |
| 26 | Taylor Heinicke | -119 | 28.0 | -1.54 | -0.98 | -1.26 |
| 27 | Davis Mills | -103 | 22.2 | -1.36 | -1.26 | -1.31 |
| 28 | Daniel Jones | -222 | 6.4 | -2.73 | -2.04 | -2.38 |
Derek Carr‘s schizophrenic season hit another high this week, notable for the fact that he’s been arguably the best deep thrower in the NFL so far in 2021. I can’t think of another QB who altered his style so drastically mid career without changing teams.
The most head scratching result of the week has to be Dak Prescott‘s low QBR. The Cowboys signal caller scored the highest DYAR in week six, and anyone who watched him play could see plain as day that he had a terrific game in Foxboro. So how did Dak only register the 14th best QBR this week? Once again, I think the primary culprit is the preposterous weight placed on high leverage runs. This was nearly a carbon copy of Dak’s earlier game against the Eagles; he gained a ton of EPA on passes but fumbled on a goal line run which killed his rush EPA. The folks at ESPN have made a lot of tweaks to their formula over the years, so here’s hoping they address the one glaring issue that remains.
Another notable disagreement between DYAR and QBR happened with Lamar Jackson. I must confess that I don’t really understand this one. Jackson was assigned negative rush DYAR but positive rush EPA. Jackson did throw an interception that wasn’t his fault and could’ve just as easily been ruled a completed pass; I’m sure QBR gives him a break for this but I doubt it’s enough to cover the difference between the two metrics.
The Justin Herbert hype train had gotten a bit out of control coming into this weekend’s matchup in Baltimore. There was MVP talk and and even some whispers that Herbert might be on the verge of surpassing Patrick Mahomes. Pump the brakes, people! For the season, Herbert currently ranks 11th in DYAR, 14th in DVOA, and 9th in QBR. He’s been good but not great. He makes some amazing throws but lacks overall consistency. Justin Herbert may very well be an MVP caliber player down the road, but let’s not crown him just yet.