Adjusting Passer Rating for Era: Interception Rate Rankings (Thru 2018)

by Chase Stuart on April 9, 2019

On Saturday, I looked at the era-adjusted leaders in completion percentage. On Sunday, I did the same for yards/attempt, and yesterday, I analyzed the era-adjusted leaders in touchdown rate. Today, we continue the analysis but for interception percentage.

Here’s a look at the interception rate in each year since 1932. As you can see, there is much more variation (and in a much more straightforward manner) than there was with TD rate:

The top quarterbacks in interception rate are two of the best ever in Sammy Baugh and Otto Graham, followed by Roman Gabriel, an interesting player whose defining characteristic was his ability to avoid interceptions. He posted an above-average INT rate every year of his career, with it being well above average most years, and historically good in a few years. Avoiding interceptions was his thing.

The other top QBs at avoiding INTs were players who were arguably the best there ever was during their prime: Sid Luckman, Roger Staubach, and Joe Montana. The full list, below. Oh, and in case you’re wondering, yes, Mark Sanchez does indeed rank in the bottom 5 of era-adjusted interception rate. But he’s also right next to a HOFer:

INT% Rk	Player	Att	First Yr	Last Year	EA PR	EA PR Rk	INT %	INT% Other3
1	Sammy Baugh	2995	1937	1952	92	3	1.56	0.24
2	Otto Graham	2626	1946	1955	95.2	1	1.53	0.14
3	Roman Gabriel	4498	1962	1977	73.6	40	1.50	0.53
4	Sid Luckman	1744	1939	1950	93.9	2	1.41	0.00
5	Roger Staubach	2958	1969	1979	84.6	6	1.39	0.16
6	Joe Montana	5391	1979	1994	83.8	7	1.35	0.12
7	Bart Starr	3149	1956	1971	78.7	20	1.33	0.20
8	Ken Anderson	4475	1971	1986	79.8	13	1.33	0.18
9	Neil Lomax	3153	1981	1988	74.9	34	1.32	0.26
10	Fran Tarkenton	6467	1961	1978	79.7	16	1.32	0.16
11	Bill Munson	1982	1964	1979	70.3	76	1.30	0.33
12	Bernie Kosar	3365	1985	1996	73	47	1.30	0.27
13	Aaron Rodgers	5492	2005	2018	82.9	8	1.30	0.07
14	Neil O'Donnell	3229	1991	2003	71.1	65	1.30	0.31
15	Frankie Albert	1564	1946	1952	81.8	9	1.29	0.09
16	Charlie Conerly	2833	1948	1961	75.7	28	1.29	0.21
17	Ken O'Brien	3602	1984	1993	72	55	1.28	0.27
18	Bert Jones	2551	1973	1982	77.2	24	1.27	0.15
19	Sonny Jurgensen	4262	1957	1974	80.3	12	1.26	0.07
20	Tom Brady	9375	2000	2018	79.7	15	1.26	0.08
21	Y.A. Tittle	4395	1948	1964	77.8	22	1.24	0.10
22	Len Dawson	3741	1957	1975	86.6	4	1.24	-0.08
23	Donovan McNabb	5374	1999	2011	71.3	61	1.24	0.22
24	Johnny Unitas	5186	1956	1973	77.2	23	1.23	0.10
25	Jeff Garcia	3676	1999	2009	74.3	37	1.23	0.15
26	Mark Brunell	4640	1994	2011	71.9	56	1.22	0.19
27	Rich Gannon	4206	1987	2004	73.5	42	1.22	0.16
28	Steve Bono	1701	1985	1999	64.7	136	1.22	0.33
29	Steve Young	4149	1985	1999	86.5	5	1.22	-0.11
30	Greg Landry	2300	1968	1984	73.6	41	1.21	0.14
31	Tony Eason	1564	1983	1990	71.5	60	1.20	0.17
32	Joe Theismann	3602	1974	1985	72.3	52	1.19	0.14
33	Colin Kaepernick	1692	2011	2016	67.6	99	1.19	0.23
34	Milt Plum	2419	1957	1969	70.7	70	1.19	0.17
35	Norm Van Brocklin	2895	1949	1960	81.6	10	1.18	-0.06
36	Tom Flores	1715	1960	1969	73.1	46	1.18	0.11
37	Billy Wade	2523	1954	1966	70.8	69	1.18	0.15
38	Doug Williams	2507	1978	1989	63.7	148	1.18	0.29
39	Don Meredith	2308	1960	1968	71.6	59	1.17	0.13
40	Bill Kenney	2430	1980	1988	69.1	89	1.17	0.18
41	Alex Smith	4941	2005	2018	67.8	96	1.17	0.20
42	David Garrard	2281	2002	2010	69.9	80	1.16	0.15
43	Dan Marino	8358	1983	1999	76.9	25	1.16	0.01
44	Phil Simms	4647	1979	1993	70.6	72	1.16	0.13
45	Mike Livingston	1751	1968	1979	65.1	131	1.15	0.24
46	Ron Jaworski	4117	1974	1989	67.8	95	1.15	0.18
47	Steve McNair	4544	1995	2007	70.3	77	1.15	0.12
48	Jason Campbell	2518	2006	2014	64.9	133	1.15	0.23
49	Sam Bradford	2967	2010	2018	64.3	140	1.14	0.24
50	John Brodie	4491	1957	1973	70.9	68	1.14	0.10
51	Gary Danielson	1932	1976	1988	71.2	62	1.14	0.09
52	Russell Wilson	3261	2012	2018	78.4	21	1.13	-0.06
53	Byron Leftwich	1605	2003	2012	64.5	138	1.13	0.22
54	Randall Cunningham	4289	1985	2001	72.1	54	1.13	0.07
55	Billy Kilmer	2984	1961	1978	72.3	50	1.13	0.06
56	John Elway	7250	1983	1998	70.4	74	1.13	0.10
57	Chad Pennington	2471	2000	2010	75.4	29	1.13	-0.01
58	Matt Ryan	6201	2008	2018	74.6	36	1.12	0.01
59	Derek Carr	2800	2014	2018	65.8	117	1.12	0.17
60	Steve Bartkowski	3456	1975	1986	70.7	71	1.12	0.07
61	Daryle Lamonica	2601	1963	1974	76.5	26	1.11	-0.05
62	Jeff George	3967	1990	2001	69.7	84	1.11	0.09
63	Nick Foles	1581	2012	2018	66.7	107	1.11	0.15
64	Drew Brees	9783	2001	2018	79.4	17	1.11	-0.12
65	Jim Harbaugh	3918	1987	2000	67.3	102	1.10	0.13
66	Jim McMahon	2573	1982	1996	69.7	85	1.10	0.08
67	Bobby Layne	3700	1948	1962	70.1	78	1.10	0.07
68	Tobin Rote	2907	1950	1966	63.9	145	1.10	0.19
69	Brad Johnson	4326	1994	2008	70.4	73	1.10	0.06
70	Frank Ryan	2133	1958	1970	75.1	31	1.10	-0.04
71	Brian Sipe	3439	1974	1983	70.9	67	1.10	0.05
72	Troy Aikman	4715	1989	2000	71.1	64	1.10	0.04
73	Bob Griese	3429	1967	1980	79	19	1.09	-0.13
74	Kyle Orton	2712	2005	2014	63.9	146	1.09	0.17
75	Peyton Manning	9380	1998	2015	81	11	1.09	-0.17
76	Archie Manning	3642	1971	1984	66	115	1.08	0.12
77	Earl Morrall	2689	1956	1976	73.4	43	1.08	-0.03
78	Jim Hart	5076	1966	1984	66.1	114	1.08	0.11
79	Jeff Hostetler	2338	1985	1997	70	79	1.07	0.03
80	Jim Zorn	3149	1976	1987	64	144	1.07	0.15
81	Doug Flutie	2151	1986	2005	65.6	120	1.06	0.11
82	Joe Flacco	5670	2008	2018	64.1	142	1.06	0.13
83	Michael Vick	3217	2001	2015	64.3	141	1.06	0.13
84	Dan Fouts	5604	1973	1987	75.4	30	1.06	-0.10
85	Mark Rypien	2613	1988	2001	69.4	88	1.06	0.02
86	Bubby Brister	2212	1986	2000	63.5	151	1.05	0.13
87	Matthew Stafford	5405	2009	2018	67.7	98	1.05	0.05
88	Matt Schaub	3281	2004	2018	71.7	58	1.05	-0.04
89	Don Majkowski	1905	1987	1996	63.9	147	1.05	0.12
90	Trent Green	3740	1997	2008	73	48	1.05	-0.07
91	Marc Bulger	3171	2002	2009	69.8	82	1.05	0.00
92	Tony Banks	2356	1996	2005	61.4	162	1.04	0.17
93	Cotton Davidson	1752	1954	1968	60.5	168	1.04	0.18
94	Matt Hasselbeck	5330	1999	2015	66.8	106	1.04	0.06
95	Craig Morton	3786	1965	1982	72.6	49	1.04	-0.06
96	Philip Rivers	7000	2004	2018	76.1	27	1.04	-0.13
97	Jeff Blake	3241	1992	2005	66.5	110	1.04	0.06
98	Bob Waterfield	1617	1945	1952	74.6	35	1.04	-0.10
99	Case Keenum	1844	2012	2018	61.7	160	1.04	0.15
100	Tony Romo	4335	2004	2016	79.2	18	1.04	-0.20
101	Warren Moon	6823	1984	2000	71.2	63	1.04	-0.04
102	Joe Ferguson	4519	1973	1990	65	132	1.04	0.08
103	Steve DeBerg	5024	1978	1998	67.3	103	1.03	0.03
104	Drew Bledsoe	6717	1993	2006	65.1	130	1.03	0.08
105	Boomer Esiason	5205	1984	1997	71.7	57	1.03	-0.07
106	Chris Miller	2892	1987	1999	65.4	121	1.02	0.06
107	Aaron Brooks	2963	2000	2006	65.2	123	1.02	0.06
108	Ben Roethlisberger	7168	2004	2018	75	32	1.02	-0.14
109	Charlie Batch	1604	1998	2012	65.1	126	1.01	0.04
110	Kerry Collins	6261	1995	2011	60.6	167	1.01	0.13
111	Dave Krieg	5311	1980	1998	72.3	51	1.01	-0.10
112	Tommy Kramer	3651	1977	1990	66.4	112	1.00	0.01
113	David Carr	2267	2002	2012	60.7	166	1.00	0.12
114	Mike Pagel	1509	1982	1993	55.3	182	1.00	0.23
115	Bill Nelsen	1905	1963	1972	68.9	90	1.00	-0.04
116	Stan Humphries	2516	1989	1997	65.2	124	1.00	0.03
117	Kurt Warner	4070	1998	2009	79.8	14	1.00	-0.26
118	Kirk Cousins	2702	2012	2018	72.2	53	1.00	-0.11
119	Jim Everett	4923	1986	1997	68.8	91	1.00	-0.04
120	Steve Beuerlein	3328	1988	2003	69.8	81	1.00	-0.06
121	Jack Kemp	3073	1957	1969	62.2	157	1.00	0.09
122	Charley Johnson	3392	1961	1975	67	104	1.00	-0.01
123	Andrew Luck	3290	2012	2018	67.5	100	0.99	-0.02
124	Dan Pastorini	3055	1971	1983	59.9	170	0.99	0.13
125	Elvis Grbac	2445	1994	2001	68.5	94	0.99	-0.05
126	Jim Kelly	4779	1986	1996	74.9	33	0.98	-0.19
127	John Hadl	4687	1962	1977	71	66	0.98	-0.11
128	Ryan Tannehill	2911	2012	2018	65.3	122	0.98	0.01
129	Jay Schroeder	2808	1985	1994	62.9	154	0.98	0.05
130	Brett Favre	10169	1991	2010	73.3	44	0.98	-0.16
131	Andy Dalton	3921	2011	2018	67.7	97	0.97	-0.06
132	Daunte Culpepper	3199	1999	2009	74.1	39	0.97	-0.19
133	Carson Palmer	6307	2004	2017	69.8	83	0.96	-0.11
134	Scott Mitchell	2346	1991	2001	64.6	137	0.96	-0.01
135	Danny White	2950	1976	1988	74.3	38	0.96	-0.21
136	Erik Kramer	2299	1987	1999	65.8	118	0.96	-0.04
137	Chris Chandler	4005	1988	2004	68.8	92	0.95	-0.10
138	Joey Harrington	2538	2002	2007	55.3	181	0.95	0.16
139	Frank Tripucka	1745	1949	1963	61.3	164	0.95	0.04
140	Eric Hipple	1546	1980	1989	61.6	161	0.95	0.04
141	Cam Newton	3892	2011	2018	65.1	129	0.95	-0.04
142	Matt Cassel	2684	2005	2018	60.4	169	0.95	0.05
143	Bobby Hebert	3121	1985	1996	69.4	87	0.94	-0.13
144	Terry Bradshaw	3901	1970	1983	70.3	75	0.94	-0.15
145	Jack Trudeau	1644	1986	1995	55.1	183	0.94	0.15
146	Marcus Mariota	1605	2015	2018	66.5	111	0.94	-0.08
147	Eli Manning	7972	2004	2018	65.2	125	0.94	-0.05
148	Gus Frerotte	3106	1994	2008	61.9	159	0.93	0.01
149	Kyle Boller	1519	2003	2011	55.1	184	0.93	0.14
150	Billy Joe Tolliver	1707	1989	1999	57.3	178	0.92	0.09
151	Brian Griese	2796	1998	2008	69.6	86	0.92	-0.16
152	Kordell Stewart	2358	1995	2005	59.2	174	0.92	0.04
153	Josh McCown	2628	2002	2018	61	165	0.92	0.00
154	Babe Parilli	3330	1952	1969	65.7	119	0.92	-0.09
155	Jake Delhomme	2932	1999	2011	66.6	108	0.92	-0.11
156	Dave Brown	1634	1992	2001	56.6	179	0.91	0.09
157	Chad Henne	1959	2008	2018	57.5	177	0.91	0.07
158	Joe Namath	3762	1965	1977	68.7	93	0.91	-0.16
159	Wade Wilson	2428	1981	1998	66.9	105	0.90	-0.13
160	Blake Bortles	2632	2014	2018	57.8	176	0.89	0.03
161	George Blanda	4007	1949	1975	67.4	101	0.88	-0.17
162	Norm Snead	4353	1961	1976	63.5	150	0.88	-0.09
163	Jim Plunkett	3701	1971	1986	65.1	127	0.88	-0.12
164	Josh Freeman	2048	2009	2015	59.8	172	0.88	-0.02
165	Jon Kitna	4442	1997	2011	64.3	139	0.88	-0.12
166	Jake Plummer	4350	1997	2006	62	158	0.88	-0.07
167	Jay Cutler	4920	2006	2017	66.5	109	0.88	-0.16
168	Rick Mirer	2043	1993	2003	52.4	189	0.87	0.12
169	Jay Fiedler	1717	1995	2005	64.8	134	0.86	-0.15
170	Rodney Peete	2346	1989	2004	62.3	156	0.86	-0.10
171	Vinny Testaverde	6701	1987	2007	64	143	0.85	-0.14
172	Ed Brown	1987	1954	1965	63.3	152	0.84	-0.14
173	Tim Couch	1714	1999	2003	63.2	153	0.84	-0.15
174	Jameis Winston	1922	2015	2018	64.7	135	0.84	-0.18
175	Mike Phipps	1799	1970	1981	53.2	188	0.82	0.02
176	Rex Grossman	1562	2003	2012	55.8	180	0.81	-0.04
177	Derek Anderson	1674	2006	2018	53.6	187	0.80	0.00
178	Ryan Fitzpatrick	4285	2005	2018	61.3	163	0.80	-0.15
179	Richard Todd	2967	1976	1985	62.4	155	0.80	-0.18
180	Mike Tomczak	2337	1985	1999	59.9	171	0.79	-0.14
181	Marc Wilson	2081	1980	1990	59.5	173	0.79	-0.14
182	Mark Malone	1648	1980	1989	54.3	186	0.79	-0.03
183	Trent Dilfer	3172	1994	2007	58.2	175	0.79	-0.11
184	Ken Stabler	3793	1970	1984	73.3	45	0.77	-0.44
185	Mark Sanchez	2320	2009	2018	54.9	185	0.76	-0.08
186	Vince Ferragamo	1615	1977	1986	63.6	149	0.75	-0.27
187	Lynn Dickey	3125	1971	1985	66.3	113	0.75	-0.33
188	Steve Grogan	3593	1975	1990	65.9	116	0.73	-0.35
189	Eddie LeBaron	1796	1952	1963	65.1	128	0.71	-0.36

Passer Ratings Dropped By Poor INT Rates

Ken Stabler had to wait so long for the Hall of Fame because of his interception rate. The Raiders great had a 1.30 variable in completion percentage, 1.14 in Yards/Attempt, 1.19 in TD%, but just 0.77 in interception rate. That is why his era-adjusted passer rating ranks just 45th of all time. Stabler would be an all-time great QB if he could have had just an average interception rate.

Eddie LeBaron was above-average in all three of the passer rating stats, too, but then has the worst INT rate of any passer ever.
Steve Grogan, Lynn Dickey, Vince Ferragamo, and Kurt Warner were other passers whose ratings were dragged down significantly because of their interception rates relative to their other stats.

Passer Ratings Boosted By Strong INT Rates

Roman Gabriel is the king of this idea — he has a 1.50 INT rate component, and 1.04 at completion percentage, 0.91 at yards/attempt, and just 0.96 as touchdown rate. Bill Munson, Steve Bono, Neil O’Donnell, Doug Williams, Ken O’Brien, and Bernie Kosar who all rank significantly higher in era-adjusted interception rate than in era-adjusted passer rating. For those guys, avoiding interceptions was their best thing.

What stands out to you? One interesting thing I see: six different HOF quarterbacks have below-average interception rates, compared to just two for completion percentage, one for yards/attempt, and two for touchdown rate.

Tagged as: Passer Rating

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