Adjusting Passer Rating for Era: Part V: The Results

by Chase Stuart on January 20, 2017

Background reading:

All week, I have been discussing how to adjust passer rating by era. Now that I have explained the formula, it’s time to generate the results. In a given season, ratings won’t change (unless a player moves below or above a limit as a result of the era adjustment), so the most interesting thing to do is to present career passer ratings.

To calculate career passer ratings, I first calculated each player’s passer rating in each season. Then, I created their career rating by averaging the player’s passer rating in each season, weighted of course by their number of attempts in that season. And now, the results.

The table below shows all 185 players with at least 1500 career pass attempts (this includes the 2016 season). Here is how to read the table below. Otto Graham is the career leader in era adjusted passer rating (this includes his AAFC time). He ranks 115th in career pass attempts with 2,626. Since passer rating is the sum of four variables multiplied by 100 and divided by 6, I figured we might as well present the era adjusted variables, too. In completion percentage, Graham scores a 1.40; in yards per attempt, he is at a whopping 1.53; in touchdown percent, 1.25, and in interception percentage, a remarkable 1.53. As a result, his era adjusted passer rating is 95.2.

Att Rk	Quarterback	Att	Cmp% Var	Y/A Var	TD% Var	INT% Var	EA Pass Rtg	Rk
115	Otto Graham	2626	1.40	1.53	1.25	1.53	95.2	1
162	Sid Luckman	1744	1.33	1.45	1.45	1.41	93.9	2
96	Sammy Baugh	2995	1.58	1.20	1.17	1.56	92.0	3
63	Len Dawson	3741	1.40	1.22	1.34	1.24	86.6	4
50	Steve Young	4149	1.36	1.29	1.32	1.22	86.5	5
31	Aaron Rodgers	4657	1.18	1.20	1.41	1.29	84.7	6
100	Roger Staubach	2958	1.23	1.25	1.21	1.39	84.6	7
17	Joe Montana	5391	1.36	1.13	1.18	1.35	83.8	8
179.5	Frankie Albert	1564	1.27	1.00	1.35	1.29	81.8	9
105	Norm Van Brocklin	2895	1.24	1.29	1.18	1.18	81.6	10
2	Peyton Manning	9380	1.27	1.19	1.32	1.09	81.0	11
48	Sonny Jurgensen	4262	1.27	1.11	1.19	1.26	80.3	12
5	Tom Brady	8224	1.15	1.13	1.26	1.26	80.1	13
39	Ken Anderson	4475	1.28	1.13	1.04	1.33	79.8	14
53	Kurt Warner	4070	1.29	1.27	1.22	1.00	79.8	15
11	Fran Tarkenton	6467	1.25	1.08	1.12	1.32	79.7	16
44	Tony Romo	4335	1.21	1.21	1.29	1.04	79.2	17
75	Bob Griese	3429	1.25	1.15	1.25	1.09	79.0	18
88.5	Bart Starr	3149	1.30	1.15	0.93	1.33	78.7	19
3	Drew Brees	8758	1.28	1.13	1.21	1.08	78.6	20
141.5	Russell Wilson	2281	1.12	1.20	1.23	1.13	78.1	21
41	Y.A. Tittle	4395	1.28	1.10	1.05	1.24	77.8	22
22	Johnny Unitas	5186	1.16	1.14	1.09	1.23	77.2	23
120	Bert Jones	2551	1.13	1.09	1.14	1.27	77.2	24
4	Dan Marino	8358	1.15	1.11	1.20	1.16	76.9	25
118	Daryle Lamonica	2601	1.01	1.14	1.33	1.11	76.5	26
15	Philip Rivers	5917	1.15	1.17	1.20	1.03	75.9	27
14	Ben Roethlisberger	5932	1.15	1.21	1.16	1.03	75.7	28
108	Charlie Conerly	2833	1.08	0.99	1.18	1.29	75.7	29
126	Chad Pennington	2471	1.30	1.09	1.01	1.13	75.4	30
16	Dan Fouts	5604	1.21	1.19	1.06	1.06	75.4	31
146	Frank Ryan	2133	0.98	1.07	1.35	1.10	75.1	32
27	Jim Kelly	4779	1.17	1.14	1.20	0.98	74.9	33
87	Neil Lomax	3153	1.11	1.05	1.02	1.32	74.9	34
174	Bob Waterfield	1617	1.20	1.14	1.10	1.04	74.6	35
67	Jeff Garcia	3676	1.12	1.04	1.08	1.23	74.3	36
101	Danny White	2950	1.21	1.10	1.19	0.96	74.3	37
84	Daunte Culpepper	3199	1.18	1.18	1.12	0.97	74.1	38
24	Matt Ryan	5064	1.17	1.08	1.08	1.11	74.1	39
36	Roman Gabriel	4498	1.04	0.91	0.96	1.50	73.6	40
138	Greg Landry	2300	1.15	1.06	1.00	1.21	73.6	41
49	Rich Gannon	4206	1.12	1.01	1.06	1.22	73.5	42
1	Brett Favre	10169	1.16	1.06	1.20	0.98	73.3	43
60	Ken Stabler	3793	1.30	1.14	1.19	0.77	73.3	44
165	Tom Flores	1715	1.08	1.06	1.08	1.18	73.2	45
112	Earl Morrall	2689	1.00	1.14	1.18	1.07	73.2	46
77	Bernie Kosar	3365	1.16	0.99	0.93	1.30	73.0	47
64	Trent Green	3740	1.08	1.20	1.05	1.05	73.0	48
61	Craig Morton	3786	1.07	1.14	1.10	1.04	72.6	49
97	Billy Kilmer	2984	1.06	1.02	1.12	1.13	72.3	50
20	Dave Krieg	5311	1.10	1.06	1.17	1.01	72.3	51
70.5	Joe Theismann	3602	1.09	1.01	1.05	1.19	72.3	52
46	Randall Cunningham	4289	1.02	1.02	1.15	1.13	72.1	53
70.5	Ken O'Brien	3602	1.14	1.00	0.90	1.28	72.0	54
33	Mark Brunell	4640	1.06	1.04	0.99	1.22	71.9	55
80	Matt Schaub	3274	1.15	1.14	0.96	1.05	71.8	56
21	Boomer Esiason	5205	1.03	1.10	1.15	1.03	71.7	57
137	Don Meredith	2308	0.95	1.05	1.12	1.17	71.6	58
179.5	Tony Eason	1564	1.13	1.02	0.94	1.20	71.5	59
18	Donovan McNabb	5374	0.96	1.02	1.06	1.24	71.3	60
182	Kirk Cousins	1556	1.16	1.15	1.04	0.93	71.2	61
154	Gary Danielson	1932	1.10	1.04	1.00	1.14	71.2	62
8	Warren Moon	6823	1.09	1.08	1.05	1.04	71.2	63
29	Troy Aikman	4715	1.21	1.04	0.91	1.10	71.1	64
82	Neil O'Donnell	3229	1.01	0.99	0.97	1.30	71.1	65
30	John Hadl	4687	1.05	1.10	1.13	0.98	71.0	66
74	Brian Sipe	3439	1.10	1.00	1.06	1.10	70.9	67
37.5	John Brodie	4491	1.18	0.98	0.96	1.14	70.9	68
122	Billy Wade	2523	1.16	1.00	0.92	1.18	70.8	69
130	Milt Plum	2419	1.14	0.98	0.94	1.19	70.7	70
73	Steve Bartkowski	3456	1.05	1.01	1.06	1.12	70.7	71
32	Phil Simms	4647	0.99	1.05	1.03	1.16	70.6	72
45	Brad Johnson	4326	1.16	0.99	0.97	1.10	70.4	73
6	John Elway	7250	1.02	1.05	1.02	1.13	70.4	74
58	Terry Bradshaw	3901	0.94	1.10	1.24	0.94	70.3	75
152	Bill Munson	1982	1.11	0.90	0.90	1.30	70.3	76
34	Steve McNair	4544	1.08	1.03	0.96	1.15	70.3	77
66	Bobby Layne	3700	1.01	1.06	1.03	1.10	70.1	78
13	Carson Palmer	6040	1.07	1.07	1.09	0.96	70.0	79
135	Jeff Hostetler	2338	1.02	1.06	1.04	1.07	70.0	80
141.5	David Garrard	2281	1.05	1.02	0.96	1.16	69.9	81
79	Steve Beuerlein	3328	0.98	1.11	1.10	1.00	69.8	82
86	Marc Bulger	3171	1.11	1.08	0.95	1.05	69.8	83
56	Jeff George	3967	1.03	1.04	1.00	1.11	69.7	84
119	Jim McMahon	2573	1.09	1.02	0.97	1.10	69.7	85
110	Brian Griese	2796	1.18	1.04	1.04	0.92	69.6	86
91	Bobby Hebert	3121	1.12	1.02	1.08	0.94	69.4	87
117	Mark Rypien	2613	0.96	1.04	1.10	1.06	69.4	88
128	Bill Kenney	2430	0.95	1.01	1.01	1.17	69.1	89
155.5	Bill Nelsen	1905	0.95	1.12	1.06	1.00	68.9	90
26	Jim Everett	4923	1.05	1.05	1.03	1.00	68.8	91
55	Chris Chandler	4005	1.03	1.08	1.06	0.95	68.7	92
62	Joe Namath	3762	1.04	1.16	1.01	0.91	68.7	93
94	Andy Dalton	3060	1.05	1.02	1.05	0.99	68.5	94
127	Elvis Grbac	2445	1.07	1.03	1.02	0.99	68.5	95
51	Ron Jaworski	4117	0.91	0.97	1.03	1.15	67.8	96
170	Colin Kaepernick	1692	0.88	1.02	0.97	1.19	67.6	97
54	George Blanda	4007	0.99	0.98	1.18	0.88	67.4	98
57	Jim Harbaugh	3918	1.08	0.97	0.87	1.10	67.3	99
25	Steve DeBerg	5024	1.08	0.96	0.96	1.03	67.2	100
37.5	Jay Cutler	4491	1.03	1.04	1.07	0.88	67.1	101
76	Charley Johnson	3392	0.97	1.03	1.02	1.00	67.0	102
129	Wade Wilson	2428	1.06	1.05	1.01	0.90	66.9	103
19	Matt Hasselbeck	5330	1.01	0.99	0.96	1.04	66.8	104
47	Matthew Stafford	4285	0.99	0.98	1.00	1.03	66.7	105
102	Jake Delhomme	2932	0.97	1.07	1.04	0.92	66.6	106
81	Jeff Blake	3241	0.92	0.99	1.04	1.04	66.5	107
68	Tommy Kramer	3651	1.00	0.95	1.04	1.00	66.4	108
52	Alex Smith	4108	1.02	0.92	0.90	1.14	66.4	109
90	Lynn Dickey	3125	1.05	1.13	1.05	0.75	66.3	110
113	Andrew Luck	2651	0.86	1.01	1.12	0.99	66.3	111
23	Jim Hart	5076	0.92	1.01	0.96	1.08	66.1	112
72	Steve Grogan	3593	0.90	1.15	1.18	0.73	65.9	113
69	Archie Manning	3642	1.09	0.94	0.84	1.07	65.8	114
139	Erik Kramer	2299	1.00	0.97	1.01	0.96	65.8	115
78	Babe Parilli	3330	0.95	1.00	1.07	0.92	65.7	116
145	Doug Flutie	2151	0.87	1.01	1.00	1.06	65.6	117
7	Eli Manning	6825	0.93	1.01	1.09	0.91	65.5	118
103	Cam Newton	2928	0.83	1.07	1.05	0.98	65.4	119
106	Chris Miller	2892	0.90	0.94	1.06	1.02	65.4	120
99	Aaron Brooks	2963	0.86	1.01	1.02	1.02	65.2	121
124	Stan Humphries	2516	0.96	1.02	0.93	1.00	65.2	122
114	Ryan Tannehill	2637	1.03	0.96	0.92	1.01	65.1	123
177	Charlie Batch	1604	0.92	1.03	0.96	1.01	65.1	124
163	Derek Carr	1732	0.90	0.81	1.04	1.15	65.1	125
65	Jim Plunkett	3701	0.94	1.04	1.04	0.88	65.1	126
158	Eddie LeBaron	1796	1.01	1.08	1.12	0.71	65.1	127
9	Drew Bledsoe	6717	0.95	0.97	0.95	1.03	65.1	128
160	Mike Livingston	1751	1.00	0.95	0.80	1.15	65.1	129
28	Joe Flacco	4742	1.00	0.94	0.90	1.06	65.0	130
35	Joe Ferguson	4519	0.90	0.93	1.03	1.04	65.0	131
123	Jason Campbell	2518	0.97	0.92	0.86	1.15	64.9	132
164	Jay Fiedler	1717	0.99	1.03	1.00	0.86	64.8	133
169	Steve Bono	1701	0.88	0.84	0.94	1.22	64.7	134
133.5	Scott Mitchell	2346	0.90	0.99	1.03	0.96	64.6	135
176	Byron Leftwich	1605	0.91	0.93	0.90	1.13	64.5	136
107	Sam Bradford	2844	1.04	0.86	0.82	1.16	64.5	137
40	Jon Kitna	4442	1.05	0.97	0.95	0.88	64.3	138
83	Michael Vick	3217	0.80	1.01	0.99	1.06	64.3	139
10	Vinny Testaverde	6701	0.95	1.01	1.02	0.85	64.0	140
88.5	Jim Zorn	3149	0.94	0.96	0.87	1.07	64.0	141
104	Tobin Rote	2907	0.85	0.88	1.01	1.10	63.9	142
111	Kyle Orton	2712	0.93	0.91	0.91	1.09	63.9	143
155.5	Don Majkowski	1905	0.97	0.92	0.89	1.05	63.9	144
125	Doug Williams	2507	0.73	0.96	0.96	1.18	63.7	145
175	Vince Ferragamo	1615	1.00	0.99	1.08	0.75	63.6	146
42	Norm Snead	4353	1.02	1.00	0.91	0.88	63.5	147
144	Bubby Brister	2212	0.91	0.91	0.94	1.05	63.5	148
151	Ed Brown	1987	0.86	1.14	0.97	0.84	63.3	149
166	Tim Couch	1714	1.06	0.94	0.96	0.84	63.2	150
109	Jay Schroeder	2808	0.73	1.05	1.01	0.98	62.9	151
98	Richard Todd	2967	0.96	1.00	0.99	0.80	62.4	152
133.5	Rodney Peete	2346	0.98	1.04	0.86	0.86	62.3	153
93	Jack Kemp	3073	0.95	1.03	0.75	1.00	62.2	154
43	Jake Plummer	4350	0.93	0.98	0.93	0.88	62.0	155
92	Gus Frerotte	3106	0.82	1.02	0.94	0.93	61.9	156
183	Eric Hipple	1546	0.91	0.97	0.87	0.95	61.6	157
132	Tony Banks	2356	0.84	0.94	0.86	1.04	61.4	158
161	Frank Tripucka	1745	1.15	0.80	0.77	0.96	61.3	159
116	Matt Cassel	2625	0.89	0.88	0.94	0.96	61.2	160
143	David Carr	2267	1.00	0.89	0.75	1.00	60.7	161
12	Kerry Collins	6261	0.84	0.93	0.86	1.01	60.6	162
159	Cotton Davidson	1752	0.80	0.97	0.82	1.04	60.5	163
59	Ryan Fitzpatrick	3876	0.92	0.89	0.99	0.82	60.3	164
147	Josh McCown	2121	0.91	0.92	0.88	0.91	60.2	165
95	Dan Pastorini	3055	0.92	0.84	0.84	0.99	59.9	166
136	Mike Tomczak	2337	0.84	1.00	0.96	0.79	59.9	167
149	Josh Freeman	2048	0.84	0.92	0.93	0.88	59.7	168
148	Marc Wilson	2081	0.84	0.97	0.98	0.79	59.5	169
131	Kordell Stewart	2358	0.91	0.88	0.85	0.92	59.2	170
85	Trent Dilfer	3172	0.87	0.93	0.91	0.79	58.2	171
153	Chad Henne	1954	0.92	0.89	0.73	0.91	57.5	172
167	Billy Joe Tolliver	1707	0.77	0.86	0.89	0.92	57.3	173
168	Blake Bortles	1706	0.79	0.85	0.92	0.85	56.7	174
173	Dave Brown	1634	0.85	0.88	0.75	0.91	56.6	175
181	Rex Grossman	1562	0.76	0.89	0.89	0.81	55.8	176
140	Mark Sanchez	2285	0.78	0.89	0.89	0.77	55.6	177
121	Joey Harrington	2538	0.82	0.74	0.80	0.95	55.3	178
185	Mike Pagel	1509	0.71	0.79	0.81	1.00	55.3	179
172	Jack Trudeau	1644	0.85	0.82	0.70	0.94	55.1	180
184	Kyle Boller	1519	0.84	0.75	0.79	0.93	55.1	181
178	Derek Anderson	1596	0.65	0.89	0.91	0.83	54.8	182
171	Mark Malone	1648	0.79	0.79	0.89	0.79	54.3	183
157	Mike Phipps	1799	0.83	0.78	0.76	0.82	53.2	184
150	Rick Mirer	2043	0.77	0.78	0.72	0.87	52.4	185

Graham and Len Dawson both rank in the top 4, and both benefited to some extent by player in expansion leagues with weaker competition for the early parts of their careers. both were Hall of Famers, of course, but those numbers are arguably (at least slightly) inflated. Seeing Sid Luckman and Sammy Baugh in the top three is hardly a surprise, either.

One fun thing to do is to sort by attempts to see who stands out. Brett Favre ranks 43rd in era adjusted passer rating, Peyton Manning is 11th, and Drew Brees is 20th. Dan Marino is 25th, but like Manning, Marino is harmed a bit by ignoring his outstanding sack rate. Tom Brady ranks 13th, while John Elway is down at 74. Eli Manning is way, way down at 118 — a hair below his father, Archie Manning. That is lower than any Hall of Famer, for those curious.

The five lowest HOF QBs on the list are John Elway, Terry Bradshaw, Bobby Layne, Joe Namath, and George Blanda. Namath had three terrible years when he was washed up, and was outstanding at avoiding sacks, which is why he’s underrated; given Namath’s focus on big plays and avoiding sacks, he’s never going to fare well in passer rating, but his era adjusted rating does rise to 72.9 if you remove his final three seasons.

Blanda was another guy who was incredible at avoiding sacks, and who focused on big plays rather than completion percentage (whereas a contemporary like Dawson’s game was much more about completion percentage and avoiding interceptions). He also is perhaps the weakest quarterback in the Hall of Fame. I’ve written before about the stats of Bradshaw and Elway; Layne’s stats have often underwhelmed me, but Brad Oremland has written some good words about him.

On the other side, you won’t be surprised to see Ken Anderson — whose game was well-designed for passer rating — excels here. Other than Frankie Albert, who played most of his short career in the AAFC, he has the best passer rating of any retired player not in the HOF. Kurt Warner is right there, too (though his stats are arguably inflated, too), with Daryle Lamonica (a player whose game was decidedly not passer rating-friendly) and Bert Jones not far behind.

What about the players with the worst passer ratings? The table is fully sortable, so you can see that Rick Mirer, Mike Phipps, Mark Malone, Derek Anderson, Jack Trudeau, Kyle Boller, and Joey Harrington have the lowest passer ratings.

What do you guys think?

Tagged as: Passer Rating

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