Adjusting Passer Rating for Era: Updated 2017 Career Ratings

by Chase Stuart on May 21, 2018

Background reading (Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV, Part V: Career Era-Adjusted Passer Ratings Through 2016, 2017 Era-Adjusted Passer Ratings). You can also view the single-season era-adjusted passer ratings here.

The NFL’s passer rating formula can be broken down into the following.

A = (Cmp% – .30) * 5
B = (Y/A – 3.0) * .25
C = TD% * 20
D = 2.375 – Int% * 25

Passer Rating = 100 * (A + B + C + D) / 6

Let’s use Tom Brady as an example. He has a completion percentage of 63.93 (making A = 1.696), a yards per attempt average of 7.514 (making B = 1.128), a TD percentage of 5.54% (making C = 1.108), and an INT percentage of 1.82% (making D = 1.921). If you sum A, B, C, and D, multiply by 100, and divide by 6, you get 97.6, which is Brady’s career passer rating.

Last year, I derived the formula to create era-adjusted passer ratings. This is necessary because the league averages in these variables — particularly completion percentage and interception rate — have changed dramatically over the last 50 years. For example, when passer rating was created in the early 1970s, the average completion percentage was 50%. So instead of taking each passer’s completion percentage and subtracting 0.30 (before multiplying by 5), we take each passer’s completion percentage and subtract from that the league average in a given season minus 0.20. This makes a completion percentage of 60% in the 1970s equivalent to a completion percentage of 70% when the league average completion rate is 60%.

We can do that for all the four variables, and keep the same formula/structure largely in place.

Here are the new formulas for each of the four variables:

A = (Cmp% – (League_Avg_Cmp% – 0.20) ) * 5
B = ( Y/A – (League_Avg_Y/A – 4.0) ) * .25
C = TD% * 20 + (1 – 20 * LgAvgTD_Rate)
D = 2.375 – (Int% * 25 + (1.375 – 25 * LgAvgINT_Rate) )

Then we sum A through D, multiply by 100, and divide by 6. The table below shows the career era-adjusted passer ratings for the 186 passers with at least 1,500 attempts. Here is how to read the table below. Otto Graham is the career leader in era adjusted passer rating (this analysis includes AAFC and AFL data — we are only adjusting for era in this analysis, not strength of league). He threw 2,626 passes in his career, began in 1946 and finished in 1955, had an actual passer rating of 86.6, and an era adjusted passer rating is 95.2. Graham, of course, is in the Hall of Fame.

Rank	Player	Att	First Yr	Last Year	Act PR	EA PR	HOF
1	Otto Graham	2626	1946	1955	86.6	95.2	yes
2	Sid Luckman	1744	1939	1950	75.0	93.9	yes
3	Sammy Baugh	2995	1937	1952	72.2	92	yes
4	Len Dawson	3741	1957	1975	82.6	86.6	yes
5	Steve Young	4149	1985	1999	96.8	86.5	yes
6	Roger Staubach	2958	1969	1979	83.4	84.6	yes
7	Aaron Rodgers	4895	2005	2017	103.8	84.3	not el.
8	Joe Montana	5391	1979	1994	92.3	83.8	yes
9	Frankie Albert	1564	1946	1952	73.5	81.8	no
10	Norm Van Brocklin	2895	1949	1960	75.1	81.6	yes
11	Peyton Manning	9380	1998	2015	96.5	81	not el.
12	Sonny Jurgensen	4262	1957	1974	82.6	80.3	yes
13	Tom Brady	8805	2000	2017	97.6	80.2	not el.
14	Ken Anderson	4475	1971	1986	81.9	79.8	no
15	Kurt Warner	4070	1998	2009	93.7	79.8	yes
16	Fran Tarkenton	6467	1961	1978	80.4	79.7	yes
17	Tony Romo	4335	2004	2016	97.1	79.2	not el.
18	Bob Griese	3429	1967	1980	77.1	79	yes
19	Drew Brees	9294	2001	2017	96.7	78.9	not el.
20	Bart Starr	3149	1956	1971	80.5	78.7	yes
21	Y.A. Tittle	4395	1948	1964	74.3	77.8	yes
22	Russell Wilson	2834	2012	2017	98.8	77.5	not el.
23	Johnny Unitas	5186	1956	1973	78.2	77.2	yes
24	Bert Jones	2551	1973	1982	78.2	77.2	no
25	Dan Marino	8358	1983	1999	86.4	76.9	yes
26	Daryle Lamonica	2601	1963	1974	72.9	76.5	no
27	Philip Rivers	6492	2004	2017	94.8	75.9	not el.
28	Charlie Conerly	2833	1948	1961	68.2	75.7	no
29	Ben Roethlisberger	6493	2004	2017	94.0	75.5	not el.
30	Chad Pennington	2471	2000	2010	90.1	75.4	no
31	Dan Fouts	5604	1973	1987	80.2	75.4	yes
32	Frank Ryan	2133	1958	1970	77.6	75.1	no
33	Jim Kelly	4779	1986	1996	84.4	74.9	yes
34	Neil Lomax	3153	1981	1988	82.7	74.9	no
35	Bob Waterfield	1617	1945	1952	61.6	74.6	yes
36	Jeff Garcia	3676	1999	2009	87.5	74.3	no
37	Danny White	2950	1976	1988	81.7	74.3	no
38	Daunte Culpepper	3199	1999	2009	87.8	74.1	no
39	Matt Ryan	5593	2008	2017	93.4	73.8	not el.
40	Roman Gabriel	4498	1962	1977	74.3	73.6	no
41	Greg Landry	2300	1968	1984	72.9	73.6	no
42	Rich Gannon	4206	1987	2004	84.7	73.5	no
43	Earl Morrall	2689	1956	1976	74.1	73.4	no
44	Brett Favre	10169	1991	2010	86.0	73.3	yes
45	Ken Stabler	3793	1970	1984	75.3	73.3	yes
46	Tom Flores	1715	1960	1969	67.6	73.1	no
47	Bernie Kosar	3365	1985	1996	81.8	73	no
48	Trent Green	3740	1997	2008	86.0	73	no
49	Craig Morton	3786	1965	1982	73.5	72.6	no
50	Billy Kilmer	2984	1961	1978	71.6	72.3	no
51	Dave Krieg	5311	1980	1998	81.5	72.3	no
52	Joe Theismann	3602	1974	1985	77.4	72.3	no
53	Randall Cunningham	4289	1985	2001	81.5	72.1	no
54	Ken O'Brien	3602	1984	1993	80.4	72	no
55	Mark Brunell	4640	1994	2011	84.0	71.9	no
56	Kirk Cousins	2096	2012	2017	93.7	71.8	not el.
57	Matt Schaub	3274	2004	2016	89.1	71.8	not el.
58	Boomer Esiason	5205	1984	1997	81.1	71.7	no
59	Don Meredith	2308	1960	1968	74.8	71.6	no
60	Tony Eason	1564	1983	1990	79.7	71.5	no
61	Donovan McNabb	5374	1999	2011	85.6	71.3	no
62	Gary Danielson	1932	1976	1988	76.6	71.2	no
63	Warren Moon	6823	1984	2000	80.9	71.2	yes
64	Troy Aikman	4715	1989	2000	81.6	71.1	yes
65	Neil O'Donnell	3229	1991	2003	81.8	71.1	no
66	John Hadl	4687	1962	1977	67.4	71	no
67	Brian Sipe	3439	1974	1983	74.8	70.9	no
68	John Brodie	4491	1957	1973	72.3	70.9	no
69	Billy Wade	2523	1954	1966	72.2	70.8	no
70	Milt Plum	2419	1957	1969	72.2	70.7	no
71	Steve Bartkowski	3456	1975	1986	75.4	70.7	no
72	Phil Simms	4647	1979	1993	78.5	70.6	no
73	Brad Johnson	4326	1994	2008	82.5	70.4	no
74	John Elway	7250	1983	1998	79.9	70.4	yes
75	Terry Bradshaw	3901	1970	1983	70.9	70.3	yes
76	Bill Munson	1982	1964	1979	71.5	70.3	no
77	Steve McNair	4544	1995	2007	82.8	70.3	no
78	Bobby Layne	3700	1948	1962	63.4	70.1	yes
79	Jeff Hostetler	2338	1985	1997	80.5	70	no
80	David Garrard	2281	2002	2010	85.8	69.9	no
81	Steve Beuerlein	3328	1988	2003	80.3	69.8	no
82	Marc Bulger	3171	2002	2009	84.4	69.8	no
83	Carson Palmer	6307	2004	2017	87.9	69.8	not el.
84	Jeff George	3967	1990	2001	80.4	69.7	no
85	Jim McMahon	2573	1982	1996	78.2	69.7	no
86	Brian Griese	2796	1998	2008	82.7	69.6	no
87	Bobby Hebert	3121	1985	1996	78.0	69.4	no
88	Mark Rypien	2613	1988	2001	78.9	69.4	no
89	Bill Kenney	2430	1980	1988	77.0	69.1	no
90	Bill Nelsen	1905	1963	1972	70.2	68.9	no
91	Jim Everett	4923	1986	1997	78.6	68.8	no
92	Chris Chandler	4005	1988	2004	79.1	68.8	no
93	Joe Namath	3762	1965	1977	65.5	68.7	yes
94	Elvis Grbac	2445	1994	2001	79.6	68.5	no
95	Alex Smith	4613	2005	2017	87.4	68.4	not el.
96	Andy Dalton	3556	2011	2017	88.7	68.2	not el.
97	Matthew Stafford	4850	2009	2017	88.3	68.1	not el.
98	Ron Jaworski	4117	1974	1989	72.8	67.8	no
99	Colin Kaepernick	1692	2011	2016	88.9	67.6	not el.
100	George Blanda	4007	1949	1975	60.6	67.4	yes
101	Jim Harbaugh	3918	1987	2000	77.6	67.3	no
102	Steve DeBerg	5024	1978	1998	74.2	67.3	no
103	Charley Johnson	3392	1961	1975	69.2	67	no
104	Wade Wilson	2428	1981	1998	75.6	66.9	no
105	Matt Hasselbeck	5330	1999	2015	82.4	66.8	not el.
106	Jake Delhomme	2932	1999	2011	81.3	66.6	no
107	Jay Cutler	4920	2006	2017	85.3	66.5	not el.
108	Jeff Blake	3241	1992	2005	78.0	66.5	no
109	Tommy Kramer	3651	1977	1990	72.8	66.4	no
110	Lynn Dickey	3125	1971	1985	70.9	66.3	no
111	Andrew Luck	2651	2012	2016	87.3	66.3	not el.
112	Jim Hart	5076	1966	1984	66.6	66.1	no
113	Archie Manning	3642	1971	1984	67.1	66	no
114	Steve Grogan	3593	1975	1990	69.6	65.9	no
115	Erik Kramer	2299	1987	1999	76.6	65.8	no
116	Babe Parilli	3330	1952	1969	59.6	65.7	no
117	Doug Flutie	2151	1986	2005	76.3	65.6	no
118	Chris Miller	2892	1987	1999	74.9	65.4	no
119	Derek Carr	2247	2014	2017	87.5	65.4	not el.
120	Aaron Brooks	2963	2000	2006	78.5	65.2	no
121	Stan Humphries	2516	1989	1997	75.8	65.2	no
122	Ryan Tannehill	2637	2012	2016	86.5	65.1	not el.
123	Charlie Batch	1604	1998	2012	77.2	65.1	no
124	Jim Plunkett	3701	1971	1986	67.5	65.1	no
125	Eddie LeBaron	1796	1952	1963	61.4	65.1	no
126	Eli Manning	7396	2004	2017	83.5	65.1	not el.
127	Drew Bledsoe	6717	1993	2006	77.1	65.1	no
128	Sam Bradford	2887	2010	2017	85.1	65.1	not el.
129	Mike Livingston	1751	1968	1979	63.3	65.1	no
130	Joe Ferguson	4519	1973	1990	68.4	65	no
131	Jameis Winston	1544	2015	2017	87.2	64.9	not el.
132	Jason Campbell	2518	2006	2014	81.7	64.9	not el.
133	Jay Fiedler	1717	1995	2005	77.1	64.8	no
134	Cam Newton	3421	2011	2017	85.3	64.7	not el.
135	Steve Bono	1701	1985	1999	75.3	64.7	no
136	Scott Mitchell	2346	1991	2001	75.3	64.6	no
137	Byron Leftwich	1605	2003	2012	78.9	64.5	no
138	Joe Flacco	5291	2008	2017	84.1	64.5	not el.
139	Jon Kitna	4442	1997	2011	77.4	64.3	no
140	Michael Vick	3217	2001	2015	80.4	64.3	not el.
141	Vinny Testaverde	6701	1987	2007	75.0	64	no
142	Jim Zorn	3149	1976	1987	67.3	64	no
143	Tobin Rote	2907	1950	1966	56.8	63.9	no
144	Kyle Orton	2712	2005	2014	81.2	63.9	not el.
145	Don Majkowski	1905	1987	1996	72.9	63.9	no
146	Doug Williams	2507	1978	1989	69.4	63.7	no
147	Vince Ferragamo	1615	1977	1986	70.1	63.6	no
148	Norm Snead	4353	1961	1976	65.5	63.5	no
149	Bubby Brister	2212	1986	2000	72.3	63.5	no
150	Ed Brown	1987	1954	1965	62.8	63.3	no
151	Tim Couch	1714	1999	2003	75.1	63.2	no
152	Jay Schroeder	2808	1985	1994	71.7	62.9	no
153	Josh McCown	2518	2002	2017	80.8	62.4	not el.
154	Richard Todd	2967	1976	1985	67.6	62.4	no
155	Rodney Peete	2346	1989	2004	73.3	62.3	no
156	Jack Kemp	3073	1957	1969	57.3	62.2	no
157	Jake Plummer	4350	1997	2006	74.6	62	no
158	Gus Frerotte	3106	1994	2008	74.2	61.9	no
159	Eric Hipple	1546	1980	1989	68.7	61.6	no
160	Tony Banks	2356	1996	2005	72.4	61.4	no
161	Frank Tripucka	1745	1949	1963	52.2	61.3	no
162	Matt Cassel	2667	2005	2017	78.8	60.8	not el.
163	David Carr	2267	2002	2012	74.9	60.7	no
164	Kerry Collins	6261	1995	2011	73.8	60.6	no
165	Ryan Fitzpatrick	4039	2005	2017	79.9	60.5	not el.
166	Cotton Davidson	1752	1954	1968	54.9	60.5	no
167	Dan Pastorini	3055	1971	1983	59.1	59.9	no
168	Mike Tomczak	2337	1985	1999	68.9	59.9	no
169	Josh Freeman	2048	2009	2015	77.6	59.8	not el.
170	Marc Wilson	2081	1980	1990	67.7	59.5	no
171	Kordell Stewart	2358	1995	2005	70.7	59.2	no
172	Blake Bortles	2229	2014	2017	80.8	58.5	not el.
173	Trent Dilfer	3172	1994	2007	70.2	58.2	no
174	Chad Henne	1956	2008	2017	75.5	57.4	not el.
175	Billy Joe Tolliver	1707	1989	1999	67.7	57.3	no
176	Dave Brown	1634	1992	2001	67.9	56.6	no
177	Rex Grossman	1562	2003	2012	71.4	55.8	no
178	Mark Sanchez	2285	2009	2016	73.9	55.6	not el.
179	Joey Harrington	2538	2002	2007	69.4	55.3	no
180	Mike Pagel	1509	1982	1993	63.3	55.3	no
181	Jack Trudeau	1644	1986	1995	63.3	55.1	no
182	Kyle Boller	1519	2003	2011	69.5	55.1	no
183	Derek Anderson	1604	2006	2017	71.1	54.7	not el.
184	Mark Malone	1648	1980	1989	61.9	54.3	no
185	Mike Phipps	1799	1970	1981	52.6	53.2	no
186	Rick Mirer	2043	1993	2003	63.5	52.4	no

Much of my analysis this time last year won’t change, of course, so I’m reprinting some of it here. Graham and Len Dawson both rank in the top 4, and both benefited to some extent by player in expansion leagues with weaker competition for the early parts of their careers. Seeing Sid Luckman and Sammy Baugh in the top three reflects the way those two passers dominated their era.

One fun thing to do is to sort by attempts to see who stands out. Brett Favre ranks 44th in era adjusted passer rating, Peyton Manning is 11th, and Drew Brees is 19th. Dan Marino is 25th, but like Manning, Marino is harmed a bit by ignoring his outstanding sack rate. Tom Brady ranks 13th, while John Elway is down at 74.

Eli Manning is way, way down at 126 — a hair below his father, Archie Manning (who is at 113). In fact, Manning, with a 65.1 era-adjusted passer rating, has a below-league average passer rating. By definition, the average passer rating in every season is 66.7 in this formula (400/6). Players with a 65.1 era-adjusted passer rating include Bledsoe, Plunkett, Tannehill, and Bradford.

The five lowest HOF QBs on the list are John Elway, Terry Bradshaw, Bobby Layne, Joe Namath, and George Blanda. Namath had three terrible years when he was washed up, and was outstanding at avoiding sacks, which is why he’s underrated; given Namath’s focus on big plays and avoiding sacks, he’s never going to fare well in passer rating, but his era adjusted rating does rise to 72.9 if you remove his final three seasons.

Blanda was another guy who was incredible at avoiding sacks, and who focused on big plays rather than completion percentage (whereas a contemporary like Dawson’s game was much more about completion percentage and avoiding interceptions). He also is perhaps the weakest quarterback in the Hall of Fame, although his era-adjusted passer rating is still above league average. I’ve written before about the stats of Bradshaw and Elway; Layne’s stats have often underwhelmed me, but Brad Oremland has written some good words about him.

On the other side, you won’t be surprised to see Ken Anderson — whose game was well-designed for passer rating — excels here. Other than Frankie Albert, who played most of his short career in the AAFC, he has the best passer rating of any retired player not in the HOF. Kurt Warner is right there, too (though his stats are arguably inflated, too), with Daryle Lamonica (a player whose game was decidedly not passer rating-friendly) and Bert Jones not far behind. Tony Romo is not yet eligible, of course, but he looks great in this analysis as well (of course, Romo has the 4th-best actual passer rating of all time). Aaron Rodgers, who has the best passer rating ever, ranks 7th once we adjust for era.

What stands out to you?

Tagged as: Passer Rating

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