Adjusting Passer Rating for Era: Updated 2018 Career Ratings

by Chase Stuart on April 4, 2019

Two years ago, I wrote a 6-part series describing how to adjust passer rating for era. I posted the career results in Part V, and the whole series is background reading for anyone who wants to learn how to adjust passer rating for era.

Last year, I updated those numbers based on the 2017 results. Earlier this year, I posted the 2018 single-season results, and today, I am going to update the career ratings.

Here’s how to read the table below. Otto Graham threw 2,626 passes, and played from 1946 to 1955. His actual passer rating was 86.6, but his era adjusted passer rating was 95.2, the best in pro football history. The final column shows whether a player is in the Hall of Fame, is a HOF lock (attributed to five players), is not in the Hall of Fame, or has never been eligible for the HOF.

Rank	Player	Att	First Yr	Last Year	Act PR	EA PR	HOF
1	Otto Graham	2626	1946	1955	86.6	95.2	HOF
2	Sid Luckman	1744	1939	1950	75	93.9	HOF
3	Sammy Baugh	2995	1937	1952	72.2	92	HOF
4	Len Dawson	3741	1957	1975	82.6	86.6	HOF
5	Steve Young	4149	1985	1999	96.8	86.5	HOF
6	Roger Staubach	2958	1969	1979	83.4	84.6	HOF
7	Joe Montana	5391	1979	1994	92.3	83.8	HOF
8	Aaron Rodgers	5492	2005	2018	103.1	82.9	HOF Lock
9	Frankie Albert	1564	1946	1952	73.5	81.8	no
10	Norm Van Brocklin	2895	1949	1960	75.1	81.6	HOF
11	Peyton Manning	9380	1998	2015	96.5	81	HOF Lock
12	Sonny Jurgensen	4262	1957	1974	82.6	80.3	HOF
13	Ken Anderson	4475	1971	1986	81.9	79.8	no
14	Kurt Warner	4070	1998	2009	93.7	79.8	HOF
15	Tom Brady	9375	2000	2018	97.6	79.7	HOF Lock
16	Fran Tarkenton	6467	1961	1978	80.4	79.7	HOF
17	Drew Brees	9783	2001	2018	97.7	79.4	HOF Lock
18	Tony Romo	4335	2004	2016	97.1	79.2	never el
19	Bob Griese	3429	1967	1980	77.1	79	HOF
20	Bart Starr	3149	1956	1971	80.5	78.7	HOF
21	Russell Wilson	3261	2012	2018	100.3	78.4	never el
22	Y.A. Tittle	4395	1948	1964	74.3	77.8	HOF
23	Johnny Unitas	5186	1956	1973	78.2	77.2	HOF
24	Bert Jones	2551	1973	1982	78.2	77.2	no
25	Dan Marino	8358	1983	1999	86.4	76.9	HOF
26	Daryle Lamonica	2601	1963	1974	72.9	76.5	no
27	Philip Rivers	7000	2004	2018	95.6	76.1	never el
28	Charlie Conerly	2833	1948	1961	68.2	75.7	no
29	Chad Pennington	2471	2000	2010	90.1	75.4	no
30	Dan Fouts	5604	1973	1987	80.2	75.4	HOF
31	Frank Ryan	2133	1958	1970	77.6	75.1	no
32	Ben Roethlisberger	7168	2004	2018	94.2	75	HOF Lock
33	Jim Kelly	4779	1986	1996	84.4	74.9	HOF
34	Neil Lomax	3153	1981	1988	82.7	74.9	no
35	Bob Waterfield	1617	1945	1952	61.6	74.6	HOF
36	Matt Ryan	6201	2008	2018	94.9	74.6	never el
37	Jeff Garcia	3676	1999	2009	87.5	74.3	no
38	Danny White	2950	1976	1988	81.7	74.3	no
39	Daunte Culpepper	3199	1999	2009	87.8	74.1	no
40	Roman Gabriel	4498	1962	1977	74.3	73.6	no
41	Greg Landry	2300	1968	1984	72.9	73.6	no
42	Rich Gannon	4206	1987	2004	84.7	73.5	no
43	Earl Morrall	2689	1956	1976	74.1	73.4	no
44	Brett Favre	10169	1991	2010	86	73.3	HOF
45	Ken Stabler	3793	1970	1984	75.3	73.3	HOF
46	Tom Flores	1715	1960	1969	67.6	73.1	no
47	Bernie Kosar	3365	1985	1996	81.8	73	no
48	Trent Green	3740	1997	2008	86	73	no
49	Craig Morton	3786	1965	1982	73.5	72.6	no
50	Billy Kilmer	2984	1961	1978	71.6	72.3	no
51	Dave Krieg	5311	1980	1998	81.5	72.3	no
52	Joe Theismann	3602	1974	1985	77.4	72.3	no
53	Kirk Cousins	2702	2012	2018	95	72.2	never el
54	Randall Cunningham	4289	1985	2001	81.5	72.1	no
55	Ken O'Brien	3602	1984	1993	80.4	72	no
56	Mark Brunell	4640	1994	2011	84	71.9	no
57	Boomer Esiason	5205	1984	1997	81.1	71.7	no
58	Matt Schaub	3281	2004	2018	89.1	71.7	never el
59	Don Meredith	2308	1960	1968	74.8	71.6	no
60	Tony Eason	1564	1983	1990	79.7	71.5	no
61	Donovan McNabb	5374	1999	2011	85.6	71.3	no
62	Gary Danielson	1932	1976	1988	76.6	71.2	no
63	Warren Moon	6823	1984	2000	80.9	71.2	HOF
64	Troy Aikman	4715	1989	2000	81.6	71.1	HOF
65	Neil O'Donnell	3229	1991	2003	81.8	71.1	no
66	John Hadl	4687	1962	1977	67.4	71	no
67	Brian Sipe	3439	1974	1983	74.8	70.9	no
68	John Brodie	4491	1957	1973	72.3	70.9	no
69	Billy Wade	2523	1954	1966	72.2	70.8	no
70	Milt Plum	2419	1957	1969	72.2	70.7	no
71	Steve Bartkowski	3456	1975	1986	75.4	70.7	no
72	Phil Simms	4647	1979	1993	78.5	70.6	no
73	Brad Johnson	4326	1994	2008	82.5	70.4	no
74	John Elway	7250	1983	1998	79.9	70.4	HOF
75	Terry Bradshaw	3901	1970	1983	70.9	70.3	HOF
76	Bill Munson	1982	1964	1979	71.5	70.3	no
77	Steve McNair	4544	1995	2007	82.8	70.3	no
78	Bobby Layne	3700	1948	1962	63.4	70.1	HOF
79	Jeff Hostetler	2338	1985	1997	80.5	70	no
80	David Garrard	2281	2002	2010	85.8	69.9	no
81	Steve Beuerlein	3328	1988	2003	80.3	69.8	no
82	Marc Bulger	3171	2002	2009	84.4	69.8	no
83	Carson Palmer	6307	2004	2017	87.9	69.8	never el
84	Jeff George	3967	1990	2001	80.4	69.7	no
85	Jim McMahon	2573	1982	1996	78.2	69.7	no
86	Brian Griese	2796	1998	2008	82.7	69.6	no
87	Bobby Hebert	3121	1985	1996	78	69.4	no
88	Mark Rypien	2613	1988	2001	78.9	69.4	no
89	Bill Kenney	2430	1980	1988	77	69.1	no
90	Bill Nelsen	1905	1963	1972	70.2	68.9	no
91	Jim Everett	4923	1986	1997	78.6	68.8	no
92	Chris Chandler	4005	1988	2004	79.1	68.8	no
93	Joe Namath	3762	1965	1977	65.5	68.7	HOF
94	Elvis Grbac	2445	1994	2001	79.6	68.5	no
95	Ron Jaworski	4117	1974	1989	72.8	67.8	no
96	Alex Smith	4941	2005	2018	87.3	67.8	never el
97	Andy Dalton	3921	2011	2018	88.8	67.7	never el
98	Matthew Stafford	5405	2009	2018	88.4	67.7	never el
99	Colin Kaepernick	1692	2011	2016	88.9	67.6	never el
100	Andrew Luck	3290	2012	2018	89.5	67.5	never el
101	George Blanda	4007	1949	1975	60.6	67.4	HOF
102	Jim Harbaugh	3918	1987	2000	77.6	67.3	no
103	Steve DeBerg	5024	1978	1998	74.2	67.3	no
104	Charley Johnson	3392	1961	1975	69.2	67	no
105	Wade Wilson	2428	1981	1998	75.6	66.9	no
106	Matt Hasselbeck	5330	1999	2015	82.4	66.8	never el
107	Nick Foles	1581	2012	2018	88.5	66.7	never el
108	Jake Delhomme	2932	1999	2011	81.3	66.6	no
109	Jay Cutler	4920	2006	2017	85.3	66.5	never el
110	Jeff Blake	3241	1992	2005	78	66.5	no
111	Marcus Mariota	1605	2015	2018	89.4	66.5	never el
112	Tommy Kramer	3651	1977	1990	72.8	66.4	no
113	Lynn Dickey	3125	1971	1985	70.9	66.3	no
114	Jim Hart	5076	1966	1984	66.6	66.1	no
115	Archie Manning	3642	1971	1984	67.1	66	no
116	Steve Grogan	3593	1975	1990	69.6	65.9	no
117	Derek Carr	2800	2014	2018	88.8	65.8	never el
118	Erik Kramer	2299	1987	1999	76.6	65.8	no
119	Babe Parilli	3330	1952	1969	59.6	65.7	no
120	Doug Flutie	2151	1986	2005	76.3	65.6	no
121	Chris Miller	2892	1987	1999	74.9	65.4	no
122	Ryan Tannehill	2911	2012	2018	87	65.3	never el
123	Aaron Brooks	2963	2000	2006	78.5	65.2	no
124	Stan Humphries	2516	1989	1997	75.8	65.2	no
125	Eli Manning	7972	2004	2018	84.1	65.2	never el
126	Charlie Batch	1604	1998	2012	77.2	65.1	no
127	Jim Plunkett	3701	1971	1986	67.5	65.1	no
128	Eddie LeBaron	1796	1952	1963	61.4	65.1	no
129	Cam Newton	3892	2011	2018	86.4	65.1	never el
130	Drew Bledsoe	6717	1993	2006	77.1	65.1	no
131	Mike Livingston	1751	1968	1979	63.3	65.1	no
132	Joe Ferguson	4519	1973	1990	68.4	65	no
133	Jason Campbell	2518	2006	2014	81.7	64.9	never el
134	Jay Fiedler	1717	1995	2005	77.1	64.8	no
135	Jameis Winston	1922	2015	2018	87.8	64.7	never el
136	Steve Bono	1701	1985	1999	75.3	64.7	no
137	Scott Mitchell	2346	1991	2001	75.3	64.6	no
138	Byron Leftwich	1605	2003	2012	78.9	64.5	no
139	Jon Kitna	4442	1997	2011	77.4	64.3	no
140	Sam Bradford	2967	2010	2018	84.5	64.3	never el
141	Michael Vick	3217	2001	2015	80.4	64.3	never el
142	Joe Flacco	5670	2008	2018	84.1	64.1	never el
143	Vinny Testaverde	6701	1987	2007	75	64	no
144	Jim Zorn	3149	1976	1987	67.3	64	no
145	Tobin Rote	2907	1950	1966	56.8	63.9	no
146	Kyle Orton	2712	2005	2014	81.2	63.9	never el
147	Don Majkowski	1905	1987	1996	72.9	63.9	no
148	Doug Williams	2507	1978	1989	69.4	63.7	no
149	Vince Ferragamo	1615	1977	1986	70.1	63.6	no
150	Norm Snead	4353	1961	1976	65.5	63.5	no
151	Bubby Brister	2212	1986	2000	72.3	63.5	no
152	Ed Brown	1987	1954	1965	62.8	63.3	no
153	Tim Couch	1714	1999	2003	75.1	63.2	no
154	Jay Schroeder	2808	1985	1994	71.7	62.9	no
155	Richard Todd	2967	1976	1985	67.6	62.4	no
156	Rodney Peete	2346	1989	2004	73.3	62.3	no
157	Jack Kemp	3073	1957	1969	57.3	62.2	no
158	Jake Plummer	4350	1997	2006	74.6	62	no
159	Gus Frerotte	3106	1994	2008	74.2	61.9	no
160	Case Keenum	1844	2012	2018	84.5	61.7	never el
161	Eric Hipple	1546	1980	1989	68.7	61.6	no
162	Tony Banks	2356	1996	2005	72.4	61.4	no
163	Ryan Fitzpatrick	4285	2005	2018	81.1	61.3	never el
164	Frank Tripucka	1745	1949	1963	52.2	61.3	no
165	Josh McCown	2628	2002	2018	79.7	61	never el
166	David Carr	2267	2002	2012	74.9	60.7	no
167	Kerry Collins	6261	1995	2011	73.8	60.6	no
168	Cotton Davidson	1752	1954	1968	54.9	60.5	no
169	Matt Cassel	2684	2005	2018	78.4	60.4	never el
170	Dan Pastorini	3055	1971	1983	59.1	59.9	no
171	Mike Tomczak	2337	1985	1999	68.9	59.9	no
172	Josh Freeman	2048	2009	2015	77.6	59.8	never el
173	Marc Wilson	2081	1980	1990	67.7	59.5	no
174	Kordell Stewart	2358	1995	2005	70.7	59.2	no
175	Trent Dilfer	3172	1994	2007	70.2	58.2	no
176	Blake Bortles	2632	2014	2018	80.6	57.8	never el
177	Chad Henne	1959	2008	2018	75.5	57.5	never el
178	Billy Joe Tolliver	1707	1989	1999	67.7	57.3	no
179	Dave Brown	1634	1992	2001	67.9	56.6	no
180	Rex Grossman	1562	2003	2012	71.4	55.8	no
181	Joey Harrington	2538	2002	2007	69.4	55.3	no
182	Mike Pagel	1509	1982	1993	63.3	55.3	no
183	Jack Trudeau	1644	1986	1995	63.3	55.1	no
184	Kyle Boller	1519	2003	2011	69.5	55.1	no
185	Mark Sanchez	2320	2009	2018	73.2	54.9	never el
186	Mark Malone	1648	1980	1989	61.9	54.3	no
187	Derek Anderson	1674	2006	2018	70.4	53.6	never el
188	Mike Phipps	1799	1970	1981	52.6	53.2	no
189	Rick Mirer	2043	1993	2003	63.5	52.4	no

Eli Manning remains one of the most fascinating players in NFL history. He is now clearly below-average for his entire career when it comes to passer rating (and also below his father), which admittedly is not one of Manning’s better stats. ^[1]Manning has a Passer Rating+ Index of 97 on PFR, compared to an ANY/A+ Index of 100. But there are no quarterbacks in the HOF who were below-average for their career in passer rating. And it’s even more interesting to compare Manning to two other quarterbacks who entered the NFL in 2004: Philip Rivers and Tony Romo.

The graph below shows the same data as the table above, listing all players with 1500+ pass attempts. The X-Axis displays the first year for each player, while the Y-Axis shows their era-adjusted passer rating. The gold dots represent HOFers, the red dots the HOF locks, and the black dots everyone else. Oh, and along the vertical line for the 2004 year, I have color-coded the circles for Romo, Rivers, and Manning in Cowboys, Chargers, and Giants colors. If Manning one days makes the Hall of Fame, he would be the biggest outlier there, at least according to this graph:

The notable non-HOFers on this list are the same ones we always see: Ken Anderson, Bert Jones, Daryle Lamonica, Charlie Conerly, Chad Pennington, Frank Ryan, Neil Lomax, Jeff Garcia, Danny White, Daunte Culpepper, and Roman Gabriel each threw 2,000 passes and rank in the top 40 in era-adjusted passer rating. Of that group, Anderson, Lamonica, and Conerly have the best HOF cases, in my opinion.

What stands out to you?

References[+]

References
↑1	Manning has a Passer Rating+ Index of 97 on PFR, compared to an ANY/A+ Index of 100.

Tagged as: Passer Rating

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