Adjusting Passer Rating for Era: Updated 2019 Career Ratings

by Chase Stuart on August 5, 2020

Over the last few years, I have been updating the career passer ratings for NFL quarterbacks to adjust for era. Over the last 100 years, the NFL has consistently approved rules changes to make passing easier, and as a result, passer rating has consistently spiked:

Three years ago, I wrote a 6-part series describing how to adjust passer rating for era. I posted the career results in Part V, and the whole series is background reading for anyone who wants to learn how to adjust passer rating for era. I updated those numbers in 2017 and 2018, and am going to do so again today (I previously posted the 2019 season era-adjusted passer ratings).

Here’s how to read the table below, which includes all AFL, AAFC, and NFL statistics. Otto Graham threw 2,626 passes, and played from 1946 to 1955. His actual passer rating was 86.6, but his era adjusted passer rating was 95.2, the best in pro football history. The final column shows whether a player is in the Hall of Fame, is a HOF lock (attributed to six players; Brady, Brees, Manning, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, and Wilson), is not in the Hall of Fame, or has never been eligible for the HOF. As a reminder, 66.7 represents league average.

Rank	Player	Att	First Yr	Last Year	Act PR	EA PR	HOF
1	Otto Graham	2626	1946	1955	86.6	95.2	HOF
2	Sid Luckman	1744	1939	1950	75	93.9	HOF
3	Sammy Baugh	2995	1937	1952	72.2	92	HOF
4	Len Dawson	3741	1957	1975	82.6	86.6	HOF
5	Steve Young	4149	1985	1999	96.8	86.5	HOF
6	Roger Staubach	2958	1969	1979	83.4	84.6	HOF
7	Joe Montana	5391	1979	1994	92.3	83.8	HOF
8	Aaron Rodgers	6061	2005	2019	102.4	81.9	HOF Lock
9	Frankie Albert	1564	1946	1952	73.5	81.8	no
10	Norm Van Brocklin	2895	1949	1960	75.1	81.6	HOF
11	Peyton Manning	9380	1998	2015	96.5	81	HOF Lock
12	Sonny Jurgensen	4262	1957	1974	82.6	80.3	HOF
13	Drew Brees	10161	2001	2019	98.4	79.9	HOF Lock
14	Ken Anderson	4475	1971	1986	81.9	79.8	no
15	Kurt Warner	4070	1998	2009	93.7	79.8	HOF
16	Fran Tarkenton	6467	1961	1978	80.4	79.7	HOF
17	Tony Romo	4335	2004	2016	97.1	79.2	never el
18	Bob Griese	3429	1967	1980	77.1	79	HOF
19	Russell Wilson	3777	2012	2019	101.2	79	HOF Lock
20	Tom Brady	9988	2000	2019	97	78.8	HOF Lock
21	Bart Starr	3149	1956	1971	80.5	78.7	HOF
22	Y.A. Tittle	4395	1948	1964	74.3	77.8	HOF
23	Johnny Unitas	5186	1956	1973	78.2	77.2	HOF
24	Bert Jones	2551	1973	1982	78.2	77.2	no
25	Dan Marino	8358	1983	1999	86.4	76.9	HOF
26	Daryle Lamonica	2601	1963	1974	72.9	76.5	no
27	Charlie Conerly	2833	1948	1961	68.2	75.7	no
28	Chad Pennington	2471	2000	2010	90.1	75.4	no
29	Dan Fouts	5604	1973	1987	80.2	75.4	HOF
30	Philip Rivers	7591	2004	2019	95.1	75.3	never el
31	Frank Ryan	2133	1958	1970	77.6	75.1	no
32	Jim Kelly	4779	1986	1996	84.4	74.9	HOF
33	Neil Lomax	3153	1981	1988	82.7	74.9	no
34	Ben Roethlisberger	7230	2004	2019	94	74.7	HOF Lock
35	Bob Waterfield	1617	1945	1952	61.6	74.6	HOF
36	Jeff Garcia	3676	1999	2008	87.5	74.3	no
37	Danny White	2950	1976	1988	81.7	74.3	no
38	Daunte Culpepper	3199	1999	2009	87.8	74.1	no
39	Matt Ryan	6817	2008	2019	94.6	74	never el
40	Kirk Cousins	3146	2012	2019	96.8	73.8	never el
41	Dak Prescott	2071	2016	2019	97	73.7	never el
42	Roman Gabriel	4498	1962	1977	74.3	73.6	no
43	Greg Landry	2300	1968	1984	72.9	73.6	no
44	Rich Gannon	4206	1987	2004	84.7	73.5	no
45	Earl Morrall	2689	1956	1976	74.1	73.4	no
46	Brett Favre	10169	1991	2010	86	73.3	HOF
47	Ken Stabler	3793	1970	1984	75.3	73.3	HOF
48	Tom Flores	1715	1960	1969	67.6	73.1	no
49	Bernie Kosar	3365	1985	1996	81.8	73	no
50	Trent Green	3740	1997	2008	86	73	no
51	Craig Morton	3786	1965	1982	73.5	72.6	no
52	Billy Kilmer	2984	1961	1978	71.6	72.3	no
53	Dave Krieg	5311	1980	1998	81.5	72.3	no
54	Joe Theismann	3602	1974	1985	77.4	72.3	no
55	Randall Cunningham	4289	1985	2001	81.5	72.1	no
56	Matt Schaub	3348	2004	2019	89.5	72	never el
57	Ken O'Brien	3602	1984	1993	80.4	72	no
58	Mark Brunell	4640	1994	2011	84	71.9	no
59	Boomer Esiason	5205	1984	1997	81.1	71.7	no
60	Don Meredith	2308	1960	1968	74.8	71.6	no
61	Tony Eason	1564	1983	1990	79.7	71.5	no
62	Donovan McNabb	5374	1999	2011	85.6	71.3	no
63	Gary Danielson	1932	1976	1988	76.6	71.2	no
64	Warren Moon	6823	1984	2000	80.9	71.2	HOF
65	Troy Aikman	4715	1989	2000	81.6	71.1	HOF
66	Neil O'Donnell	3229	1991	2003	81.8	71.1	no
67	John Hadl	4687	1962	1977	67.4	71	no
68	Brian Sipe	3439	1974	1983	74.8	70.9	no
69	John Brodie	4491	1957	1973	72.3	70.9	no
70	Billy Wade	2523	1954	1966	72.2	70.8	no
71	Milt Plum	2419	1957	1969	72.2	70.7	no
72	Steve Bartkowski	3456	1975	1986	75.4	70.7	no
73	Phil Simms	4647	1979	1993	78.5	70.6	no
74	Brad Johnson	4326	1994	2008	82.5	70.4	no
75	John Elway	7250	1983	1998	79.9	70.4	HOF
76	Terry Bradshaw	3901	1970	1983	70.9	70.3	HOF
77	Bill Munson	1982	1964	1979	71.5	70.3	no
78	Steve McNair	4544	1995	2007	82.8	70.3	no
79	Bobby Layne	3700	1948	1962	63.4	70.1	HOF
80	Jeff Hostetler	2338	1985	1997	80.5	70	no
81	David Garrard	2281	2002	2010	85.8	69.9	no
82	Steve Beuerlein	3328	1988	2003	80.3	69.8	no
83	Marc Bulger	3171	2002	2009	84.4	69.8	no
84	Carson Palmer	6307	2004	2017	87.9	69.8	never el
85	Jeff George	3967	1990	2001	80.4	69.7	no
86	Jim McMahon	2573	1982	1996	78.2	69.7	no
87	Brian Griese	2796	1998	2008	82.7	69.6	no
88	Carson Wentz	2055	2016	2019	92.7	69.5	never el
89	Bobby Hebert	3121	1985	1996	78	69.4	no
90	Mark Rypien	2613	1988	2001	78.9	69.4	no
91	Bill Kenney	2430	1980	1988	77	69.1	no
92	Bill Nelsen	1905	1963	1972	70.2	68.9	no
93	Jim Everett	4923	1986	1997	78.6	68.8	no
94	Chris Chandler	4005	1988	2004	79.1	68.8	no
95	Joe Namath	3762	1965	1977	65.5	68.7	HOF
96	Elvis Grbac	2445	1994	2001	79.6	68.5	no
97	Jared Goff	1869	2016	2019	91.9	68.4	never el
98	Matthew Stafford	5696	2009	2019	89.3	68.4	never el
99	Ryan Tannehill	3197	2012	2019	89.8	67.8	never el
100	Ron Jaworski	4117	1974	1989	72.8	67.8	no
101	Alex Smith	4941	2005	2018	87.3	67.8	never el
102	Colin Kaepernick	1692	2011	2016	88.9	67.6	never el
103	Derek Carr	3313	2014	2019	90.7	67.6	never el
104	Andrew Luck	3290	2012	2018	89.5	67.5	never el
105	George Blanda	4007	1949	1975	60.6	67.4	HOF
106	Jim Harbaugh	3918	1987	2000	77.6	67.3	no
107	Steve DeBerg	5024	1978	1998	74.2	67.3	no
108	Charley Johnson	3392	1961	1975	69.2	67	no
109	Wade Wilson	2428	1981	1998	75.6	66.9	no
110	Matt Hasselbeck	5330	1999	2015	82.4	66.8	never el
111	Marcus Mariota	1765	2015	2019	89.6	66.7	never el
112	Jake Delhomme	2932	1999	2011	81.3	66.6	no
113	Jay Cutler	4920	2006	2017	85.3	66.5	never el
114	Jeff Blake	3241	1992	2005	78	66.5	no
115	Tommy Kramer	3651	1977	1990	72.8	66.4	no
116	Lynn Dickey	3125	1971	1985	70.9	66.3	no
117	Nick Foles	1698	2012	2019	88.2	66.3	never el
118	Andy Dalton	4449	2011	2019	87.5	66.2	never el
119	Jim Hart	5076	1966	1984	66.6	66.1	no
120	Archie Manning	3642	1971	1984	67.1	66	no
121	Steve Grogan	3593	1975	1990	69.6	65.9	no
122	Erik Kramer	2299	1987	1999	76.6	65.8	no
123	Babe Parilli	3330	1952	1969	59.6	65.7	no
124	Doug Flutie	2151	1986	2005	76.3	65.6	no
125	Chris Miller	2892	1987	1999	74.9	65.4	no
126	Aaron Brooks	2963	2000	2006	78.5	65.2	no
127	Stan Humphries	2516	1989	1997	75.8	65.2	no
128	Charlie Batch	1604	1998	2012	77.2	65.1	no
129	Jim Plunkett	3701	1971	1986	67.5	65.1	no
130	Eddie LeBaron	1796	1952	1963	61.4	65.1	no
131	Drew Bledsoe	6717	1993	2006	77.1	65.1	no
132	Mike Livingston	1751	1968	1979	63.3	65.1	no
133	Eli Manning	8119	2004	2019	84.1	65	never el
134	Joe Ferguson	4519	1973	1990	68.4	65	no
135	Jason Campbell	2518	2006	2014	81.7	64.9	no
136	Jay Fiedler	1717	1995	2005	77.1	64.8	no
137	Cam Newton	3981	2011	2019	86	64.7	never el
138	Steve Bono	1701	1985	1999	75.3	64.7	no
139	Scott Mitchell	2346	1991	2001	75.3	64.6	no
140	Byron Leftwich	1605	2003	2012	78.9	64.5	no
141	Jon Kitna	4442	1997	2011	77.4	64.3	no
142	Sam Bradford	2967	2010	2018	84.5	64.3	never el
143	Michael Vick	3217	2001	2015	80.4	64.3	never el
144	Vinny Testaverde	6701	1987	2007	75	64	no
145	Joe Flacco	5932	2008	2019	84.1	64	never el
146	Jim Zorn	3149	1976	1987	67.3	64	no
147	Tobin Rote	2907	1950	1966	56.8	63.9	no
148	Kyle Orton	2712	2005	2014	81.2	63.9	no
149	Don Majkowski	1905	1987	1996	72.9	63.9	no
150	Jameis Winston	2548	2015	2019	86.9	63.7	never el
151	Doug Williams	2507	1978	1989	69.4	63.7	no
152	Vince Ferragamo	1615	1977	1986	70.1	63.6	no
153	Norm Snead	4353	1961	1976	65.5	63.5	no
154	Bubby Brister	2212	1986	2000	72.3	63.5	no
155	Ed Brown	1987	1954	1965	62.8	63.3	no
156	Tim Couch	1714	1999	2003	75.1	63.2	no
157	Jay Schroeder	2808	1985	1994	71.7	62.9	no
158	Richard Todd	2967	1976	1985	67.6	62.4	no
159	Case Keenum	2091	2012	2019	85.3	62.4	never el
160	Rodney Peete	2346	1989	2004	73.3	62.3	no
161	Jack Kemp	3073	1957	1969	57.3	62.2	no
162	Jake Plummer	4350	1997	2006	74.6	62	no
163	Gus Frerotte	3106	1994	2008	74.2	61.9	no
164	Eric Hipple	1546	1980	1989	68.7	61.6	no
165	Ryan Fitzpatrick	4787	2005	2019	81.6	61.4	never el
166	Tony Banks	2356	1996	2005	72.4	61.4	no
167	Frank Tripucka	1745	1949	1963	52.2	61.3	no
168	Josh McCown	2633	2002	2019	79.7	61	never el
169	David Carr	2267	2002	2012	74.9	60.7	no
170	Kerry Collins	6261	1995	2011	73.8	60.6	no
171	Cotton Davidson	1752	1954	1968	54.9	60.5	no
172	Matt Cassel	2684	2005	2018	78.4	60.4	never el
173	Dan Pastorini	3055	1971	1983	59.1	59.9	no
174	Mike Tomczak	2337	1985	1999	68.9	59.9	no
175	Josh Freeman	2048	2009	2015	77.6	59.8	never el
176	Marc Wilson	2081	1980	1990	67.7	59.5	no
177	Kordell Stewart	2358	1995	2003	70.7	59.2	no
178	Trent Dilfer	3172	1994	2007	70.2	58.2	no
179	Blake Bortles	2634	2014	2019	80.6	57.8	never el
180	Chad Henne	1959	2008	2018	75.5	57.5	never el
181	Billy Joe Tolliver	1707	1989	1999	67.7	57.3	no
182	Dave Brown	1634	1992	2000	67.9	56.6	no
183	Rex Grossman	1562	2003	2011	71.4	55.8	no
184	Joey Harrington	2538	2002	2007	69.4	55.3	no
185	Mike Pagel	1509	1982	1993	63.3	55.3	no
186	Jack Trudeau	1644	1986	1995	63.3	55.1	no
187	Kyle Boller	1519	2003	2011	69.5	55.1	no
188	Mark Sanchez	2320	2009	2018	73.2	54.9	never el
189	Mark Malone	1648	1980	1989	61.9	54.3	no
190	Derek Anderson	1674	2006	2018	70.4	53.6	never el
191	Mike Phipps	1799	1970	1981	52.6	53.2	no
192	Rick Mirer	2043	1993	2003	63.5	52.4	no

Notable moves:

Kirk Cousins moved from 53rd to 40th on the era-adjusted list. He actually ranks 7th all-time on the career passer rating list.
Russell Wilson moved from 21st to 19th on the era-adjusted list; he ranks 2nd all-time on the actual list.
Drew Brees moved from 17th to 13th on the era-adjusted list; he ranks 3rd all-time on the actual list.

Andy Dalton dropped from 67.7 to slightly below-average, at 66.2, after a horrendous 2019 season.
Tom Brady dropped from 15th to 20th on the era-adjusted list, a shockingly large drop for someone who has played for so long; of course, the gap between 15 and 20 on last year’s list was not very large. Brady’s EA PR dropped by 0.9 points; meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers saw a decline in his career EA PR by 1.0 point, and he remains in 8th place (and is 1st on the actual list).
Philip Rivers and Matt Ryan, two players who are on the cusp of the Hall of Fame, had down years (by their standards) in 2019. Rivers drops from 27th to 30th on the all-time EA list, while Ryan moved from 36th to 39th.

Finally, let’s close with a fun chart. The graph below shows the same data as the table above, listing all players with 1500+ pass attempts. The X-Axis displays the first year for each player, while the Y-Axis shows their era-adjusted passer rating. The gold dots represent HOFers and our six HOF locks, and the black dots everyone else. I have also color-coded the circles for Romo, Rivers, Manning, Plunkett, and Anderson in Cowboys, Chargers, Giants, Raiders, and Bengals colors, respectively. If Manning one days makes the Hall of Fame, he would be the biggest outlier there, as the only passer in Canton with a below-average career passer rating.

As always, please leave your thoughts in the comments.

Tagged as: Passer Rating

{ 1 comment }