Alex Smith And The Biggest Career Turnarounds

by Chase Stuart on September 26, 2017

Smith, Harbaugh, and Kaepernick in San Francisco

On Saturday, I wrote that Alex Smith had turned his career around in a remarkable fashion. In his first 44 starts, he lost 28 times. And after a win on Sunday, Smith has lost just 28 times in his last 95 starts! That made me wonder: which quarterbacks have turned their careers around in a similar fashion?

To measure this, I calculated each quarterback’s actual career winning percentage from 1950 through 2016 along with their adjusted winning percentage. What was the adjustment for? Well each start gets weighted more heavily than the last one. So for a quarterback with 100 starts, his last start gets a weight of 100, his second-to-last start gets a weight of 99, his third-to-last start a weight of 98, and so on. His second start gets a weight of two, and his first start gets a weight of just one. In other words, this is heavily skewed towards starts that come later in a quarterback’s career.

By this measure, Smith’s adjusted career winning percentage (including his three starts this year) is 0.669, which is 0.075 higher than his actual winning percentage of 0.594. That’s pretty significant, but it’s not the largest disparity. That title goes to Billy Kilmer, who had a terrible record with the Saints but a very good with the Redskins. He had an actual career winning percentage of just 0.539, but weighted for games that came later, it was 0.632, an increase of 0.092.

The 179 quarterbacks who started at least 50 games (from 1950 to 2016) are listed below. Smith ranks as the 5th biggest “late bloomer” on the list.

Rk	Player	Starts	Wins	Win%	Adj Win%	Diff
1	Billy Kilmer	114	61.5	0.539	0.632	0.092
2	Earl Morrall	102	64.5	0.632	0.719	0.087
3	Don Meredith	83	49	0.590	0.677	0.087
4	Steve DeBerg	140	53.5	0.382	0.463	0.081
5	Fran Tarkenton	239	127	0.531	0.608	0.077
6	Alex Smith ^[1]Includes 3-0 starts in 2017. All other player stats are through 2016.	139	82.5	0.594	0.669	0.075
7	Steve Young	143	94	0.657	0.733	0.075
8	Jake Plummer	136	69	0.507	0.582	0.075
9	Tom Flores	68	33	0.485	0.559	0.074
10	Tony Banks	78	35	0.449	0.517	0.068
11	Tim Couch	59	22	0.373	0.437	0.064
12	Bill Nelsen	74	41.5	0.561	0.623	0.062
13	Jim Plunkett	144	72	0.500	0.561	0.061
14	Dan Pastorini	117	56	0.479	0.535	0.057
15	Bill Munson	66	29.5	0.447	0.502	0.055
16	Cam Newton	92	51.5	0.560	0.615	0.055
17	Peyton Manning	265	186	0.702	0.756	0.055
18	Gus Frerotte	93	45.5	0.489	0.543	0.053
19	Tobin Rote	116	50	0.431	0.484	0.053
20	Bob Berry	52	21.5	0.413	0.465	0.052
21	Bubby Brister	75	37	0.493	0.545	0.052
22	Lynn Dickey	111	46.5	0.419	0.466	0.047
23	Joe Montana	164	117	0.713	0.753	0.040
24	Jim Zorn	106	44	0.415	0.453	0.038
25	Phil Simms	159	95	0.597	0.634	0.037
26	Warren Moon	203	102	0.502	0.539	0.037
27	Joe Theismann	124	77	0.621	0.657	0.036
28	Chris Miller	92	34	0.370	0.405	0.036
29	Matthew Stafford	109	51	0.468	0.503	0.035
30	Jim Kelly	160	101	0.631	0.664	0.032
31	Richard Todd	108	48.5	0.449	0.480	0.031
32	Rodney Peete	87	45	0.517	0.547	0.030
33	Bob Griese	151	93.5	0.619	0.649	0.030
34	Y.A. Tittle	133	80.5	0.605	0.633	0.028
35	Jeff George	124	46	0.371	0.399	0.028
36	Sam Bradford	78	32.5	0.417	0.444	0.028
37	Ryan Fitzpatrick	116	46.5	0.401	0.428	0.027
38	Brian Griese	83	45	0.542	0.569	0.027
39	Jeff Garcia	116	58	0.500	0.527	0.027
40	Matt Schaub	92	47	0.511	0.537	0.026
41	Dan Fouts	171	86.5	0.506	0.530	0.024
42	Billy Wade	85	41	0.482	0.505	0.023
43	Randall Cunningham	135	82.5	0.611	0.634	0.023
44	Sonny Jurgensen	147	72.5	0.493	0.515	0.022
45	Trent Dilfer	113	58	0.513	0.535	0.022
46	Lamar McHan	70	25	0.357	0.378	0.021
47	Aaron Rodgers	135	90	0.667	0.687	0.020
48	Norm Snead	159	55.5	0.349	0.369	0.020
49	Vinny Testaverde	214	90.5	0.423	0.443	0.020
50	Mike Pagel	54	17.5	0.324	0.342	0.018
51	Rich Gannon	132	76	0.576	0.593	0.018
52	Carson Palmer	174	89.5	0.514	0.532	0.017
53	Tommy Kramer	110	54	0.491	0.508	0.017
54	Frank Ryan	87	58.5	0.672	0.688	0.016
55	Joey Harrington	76	26	0.342	0.358	0.016
56	Terry Bradshaw	158	107	0.677	0.692	0.015
57	John Brodie	158	78	0.494	0.508	0.014
58	Ryan Tannehill	77	37	0.481	0.495	0.014
59	John Elway	231	148.5	0.643	0.654	0.011
60	Tom Brady	235	183	0.779	0.789	0.010
61	Trent Green	113	56	0.496	0.505	0.009
62	Babe Parilli	101	52.5	0.520	0.529	0.009
63	David Carr	79	23	0.291	0.298	0.007
64	Johnny Unitas	185	120	0.649	0.654	0.005
65	Troy Aikman	165	94	0.570	0.575	0.005
66	Mike Phipps	71	39	0.549	0.554	0.004
67	Charlie Conerly	89	57.5	0.646	0.650	0.004
68	Jim McMahon	97	67	0.691	0.694	0.003
69	Bart Starr	157	97	0.618	0.620	0.002
70	Drew Brees	232	131	0.565	0.564	-0.001
71	Chris Chandler	152	67	0.441	0.440	-0.001
72	Cotton Davidson	53	19.5	0.368	0.365	-0.003
73	Bobby Douglass	53	16.5	0.311	0.307	-0.004
74	Don Majkowski	57	26.5	0.465	0.459	-0.006
75	Kordell Stewart	82	48	0.585	0.579	-0.006
76	Jake Delhomme	96	56	0.583	0.576	-0.007
77	Brian Sipe	112	57	0.509	0.502	-0.007
78	Steve McNair	153	91	0.595	0.587	-0.007
79	Jeff Blake	100	39	0.390	0.382	-0.008
80	Drew Bledsoe	193	98	0.508	0.498	-0.010
81	Tony Romo	127	78	0.614	0.604	-0.010
82	Otto Graham	71	57.5	0.810	0.799	-0.011
83	Roger Staubach	114	85	0.746	0.734	-0.012
84	Vince Young	50	31	0.620	0.608	-0.012
85	Russell Wilson	80	56.5	0.706	0.694	-0.012
86	Andy Dalton	93	57	0.613	0.600	-0.013
87	Steve Bartkowski	127	59	0.465	0.451	-0.014
88	Craig Morton	144	81.5	0.566	0.552	-0.014
89	Matt Hasselbeck	160	85	0.531	0.516	-0.015
90	Eli Manning	199	108	0.543	0.527	-0.015
91	Brett Favre	298	186	0.624	0.608	-0.016
92	Chad Pennington	81	44	0.543	0.527	-0.016
93	Dave Brown	60	26	0.433	0.417	-0.016
94	David Woodley	53	34.5	0.651	0.635	-0.016
95	Steve Beuerlein	102	47	0.461	0.444	-0.016
96	Byron Leftwich	50	24	0.480	0.463	-0.017
97	Jason Campbell	79	32	0.405	0.388	-0.017
98	Bobby Layne	132	82	0.621	0.604	-0.017
99	Charley Johnson	124	63	0.508	0.490	-0.018
100	Doug Williams	81	38.5	0.475	0.458	-0.018
101	Len Dawson	159	98	0.616	0.599	-0.018
102	Charlie Batch	55	25	0.455	0.436	-0.018
103	Jeff Hostetler	83	51	0.614	0.595	-0.020
104	Scott Mitchell	71	32	0.451	0.431	-0.020
105	Ben Roethlisberger	183	123	0.672	0.653	-0.020
106	Jay Cutler	139	68	0.489	0.468	-0.021
107	Ken Anderson	172	91	0.529	0.507	-0.022
108	Mark Malone	53	23	0.434	0.411	-0.023
109	Neil O'Donnell	100	55	0.550	0.526	-0.024
110	Archie Manning	139	36.5	0.263	0.238	-0.024
111	Neil Lomax	101	48	0.475	0.451	-0.025
112	Frank Tripucka	52	17.5	0.337	0.311	-0.026
113	Tony Eason	51	28	0.549	0.523	-0.026
114	Dan Marino	240	147	0.613	0.587	-0.026
115	David Garrard	76	39	0.513	0.487	-0.026
116	Gary Danielson	60	28.5	0.475	0.447	-0.028
117	John Hadl	166	86.5	0.521	0.493	-0.028
118	Steve Grogan	135	75	0.556	0.527	-0.029
119	Rick Mirer	68	24	0.353	0.323	-0.030
120	Elvis Grbac	70	40	0.571	0.541	-0.031
121	Andrew Luck	70	43	0.614	0.581	-0.033
122	Dave Krieg	175	98	0.560	0.526	-0.034
123	Norm Van Brocklin	101	63	0.624	0.588	-0.035
124	Mark Brunell	151	78	0.517	0.480	-0.037
125	Donovan McNabb	161	98.5	0.612	0.575	-0.037
126	Joe Ferguson	171	79	0.462	0.425	-0.037
127	Josh Freeman	61	25	0.410	0.371	-0.039
128	Stan Humphries	81	50	0.617	0.577	-0.040
129	Brad Johnson	125	72	0.576	0.535	-0.041
130	Jim Hart	180	89.5	0.497	0.456	-0.041
131	Jon Kitna	124	50	0.403	0.361	-0.042
132	Ed Brown	96	55.5	0.578	0.536	-0.042
133	Matt Ryan	142	85	0.599	0.556	-0.042
134	Kerry Collins	180	81	0.450	0.408	-0.042
135	Eddie LeBaron	85	29.5	0.347	0.305	-0.043
136	Boomer Esiason	173	80	0.462	0.419	-0.043
137	George Blanda	104	53.5	0.514	0.471	-0.043
138	Joe Flacco	138	83	0.601	0.558	-0.043
139	Matt Cassel	80	36	0.450	0.406	-0.044
140	Erik Kramer	67	31	0.463	0.418	-0.044
141	Jim Everett	153	64	0.418	0.372	-0.046
142	Ken O'Brien	110	50.5	0.459	0.413	-0.046
143	Michael Vick	113	61.5	0.544	0.498	-0.047
144	Bobby Hebert	100	56	0.560	0.513	-0.047
145	Ron Jaworski	143	73.5	0.514	0.467	-0.047
146	Joe Namath	129	64	0.496	0.448	-0.049
147	Bert Jones	96	47	0.490	0.441	-0.049
148	Kurt Warner	116	67	0.578	0.527	-0.050
149	Mark Sanchez	72	37	0.514	0.463	-0.051
150	Jim Harbaugh	140	66	0.471	0.420	-0.051
151	Jay Schroeder	99	61	0.616	0.565	-0.051
152	Wade Wilson	69	36	0.522	0.469	-0.053
153	Bob Avellini	50	23	0.460	0.405	-0.055
154	Mark Rypien	78	47	0.603	0.547	-0.055
155	Danny White	92	62	0.674	0.619	-0.055
156	Kyle Orton	82	42	0.512	0.457	-0.056
157	Roman Gabriel	157	89.5	0.570	0.513	-0.058
158	Daryle Lamonica	88	69	0.784	0.726	-0.058
159	Bill Kenney	77	34	0.442	0.383	-0.059
160	Eric Hipple	57	28	0.491	0.430	-0.061
161	Ken Stabler	146	96.5	0.661	0.594	-0.067
162	Mike Tomczak	73	42	0.575	0.508	-0.067
163	Jay Fiedler	60	37	0.617	0.548	-0.069
164	Bernie Kosar	108	53.5	0.495	0.425	-0.070
165	Doug Flutie	66	38	0.576	0.505	-0.071
166	Greg Landry	98	45.5	0.464	0.393	-0.071
167	Josh McCown	60	18	0.300	0.228	-0.072
168	Aaron Brooks	90	38	0.422	0.350	-0.072
169	Jack Kemp	105	66.5	0.633	0.561	-0.073
170	Philip Rivers	176	97	0.551	0.472	-0.079
171	Milt Plum	103	59	0.573	0.492	-0.081
172	Daunte Culpepper	100	41	0.410	0.328	-0.082
173	Chad Henne	53	18	0.340	0.255	-0.085
174	Marc Wilson	60	32	0.533	0.446	-0.087
175	Pat Haden	55	35.5	0.645	0.556	-0.090
176	Vince Ferragamo	53	27	0.509	0.398	-0.111
177	Mike Livingston	75	31.5	0.420	0.305	-0.115
178	Colin Kaepernick	58	28	0.483	0.352	-0.130
179	Marc Bulger	95	41	0.432	0.289	-0.142

The man who replaced Smith in San Francisco, Colin Kaepernick, ranks 2nd from the bottom ahead of only Marc Bulger. The former Rams star began his career with a 28-11 record, 17 games over .500, but went 13-43 — 30 games under 5.00 — the rest of his career.

References[+]

References
↑1	Includes 3-0 starts in 2017. All other player stats are through 2016.

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