When a general manager trades away a future first round pick, it’s worth wondering if the transaction was the effect of the principal-agent problem. A general manager is supposed to act in the best interest of the franchise, but he may instead choose to act in his own self-interest. If he’s on the hot seat, trading a future first round pick for something right now may be a pretty attractive option, as he may not be around when the bill comes due.

Does that happen in practice? The most obvious example I can think of involved the Raiders in 2011.  On October 8th, Al Davis passed away. Eight days later, starting quarterback Jason Campbell went down for the season with a collarbone injury. With the owner and general manager positions unsettled, head coach Hue Jackson became the de facto head of football operations. And he traded first and second round picks to Cincinnati for Carson Palmer. Had the move worked out and the 4-2 Raiders gone on to make the playoffs, Jackson would have been very happy. When the move failed, the Raiders missed the playoffs and Jackson was fired. As a result, it was Reggie McKenzie sitting at the table when the bill arrived.

Today, I look at all instances over the last ten years when a team traded away a future first round pick.  In Part II, I’ll look at the reverse, when a team trades for a future first round pick. ^[1]Note that this category excludes trades of current (i.e., the most immediate) first round picks. So the many times where teams traded a late first round pick for an early second round pick — … Continue reading

1) Indianapolis trades its 2014 first round pick for Trent Richardson (Sept. 2013)

• Trade made by: Ryan Grigson
• Pick lost for: Ryan Grigson

When Ahmad Bradshaw went down for the season, Grigson decided to double down on bad news. Thinking the Colts were (1) in win-now mode, (2) needed a star running back to win, and (3) thinking Richardson was the star, he traded away this year’s first round pick for Richardson. The move did not work out well. Still, this wasn’t an example of the principal-agent problem, but just an illustration of Grigson failing at his job.

2) Washington trades its 2013 and 2014 first round picks to St. Louis to move up in the 2012 draft to select Robert Griffin III (March 2012).

• Trade made by: Bruce Allen/Mike Shanahan
• Picks lost for: Bruce Allen/Mike Shanahan (2013) and Bruce Allen/Jay Gruden (2014)

If Griffin turned out to be a bust, Allen and Shanahan probably knew they wouldn’t be around in 2014. As it turned out, Griffin doesn’t appear to be a bust, but a terrible year in Washington led to Shanahan being fired, anyway. The bounty for Griffin was always going to be enormous, but I don’t think too many Washington fans regretted this trade when it was made — and especially not one year later. Today, though, you’d probably get a much more divided response.

3) Oakland trades its 2012 first round pick to Cincinnati for Carson Palmer (October 2011)

• Trade made by: Hue Jackson
• Pick lost for: Reggie McKenzie

As discussed at the top of the article, this trade looked bad when it was made and only looks worse with the passage of time.

4) Atlanta trades its 2012 first round pick to Cleveland move up in the 2011 draft to select Julio Jones (April 2011)

• Trade made by: Thomas Dimitroff
• Pick lost for: Thomas Dimitroff

After a 13-3 season in 2010, Dimitroff had no reason to be concerned that he would be fired by 2012, so he knew he would be the one footing this bill. He paid a steep price to get Jones, but the former Alabama receiver has not disappointed in the NFL.

5) New Orleans trades its 2012 first round pick to New England move up in the 2011 draft to select Mark Ingram (April 2011)

• Trade made by: Mickey Loomis/Sean Payton
• Pick lost for: Mickey Loomis/Sean Payton

As with Dimitroff, Loomey/Payton had no job security concerns. Ingram had slid far down the draft board, the Saints perceived a need for a power running back, and the Saints perceived that Ingram was going to be a successful power running back. If nothing else, we have learned that teams really like trading future first round picks for Crimson Tide stars.

6) Oakland trades its 2011 first round pick to New England for Richard Seymour (Sept. 2009)

• Trade made by: Al Davis
• Pick lost for: Al Davis

Davis may have known that the end was near for him in a more important sense than job security, and this was a trade that looked odd from the moment it was announced. Seymour was about to turn 30, yet that didn’t stop Oakland from mortgaging the future to get him (to the Raiders credit, they didn’t give up a 2010 first round pick for him). Seymour made a couple of Pro Bowls in Oakland, so the trade doesn’t seem as bad now as it did then.

7) Chicago trades its 2009 and 2010 first round picks to Denver for Jay Cutler (April 2009)

• Trade made by: Jerry Angelo
• Picks lost for: Jerry Angelo

Angelo was entering his 9th season as GM in Chicago when he traded for Cutler. He had overseen an NFC Championship squad under Rex Grossman, and decided to go “all-in” by mortgaging the future to fix the quarterback position. In 2008, Chicago went only 9-7 with a defense that ranked 9th in ANY/A allowed and 3rd in YPC allowed. No principal agent problem here, and the trade nearly worked out for Angelo when the Bears reached the NFC title game in 2010. But that was the high point of the Angelo-Cutler era, and the general manager was fired after the 2010 season.

8) Denver trades its 2010 first round pick to move up in the 2009 draft to select Alphonso Smith (April 2009)

• Trade made by: Brian Xanders/Josh McDaniels
• Picks lost for: Brian Xanders/Josh McDaniels

These next two trades were disasters of the same vein. In both cases, the organization saw a player on whom they had placed a first round grade fall to the second round. Desperate to get the player, the team traded its 2010 first round pick to acquire this “first round talent” in the 2009 draft.

After receiving a bounty of picks for Cutler, Xanders and McDaniels may have decided that their own future first round pick was no longer as valuable. In between the Shanahan and Elway regimes, the power structure in Denver was never quite clear. But both Xanders and McDaniels were newly appointed, so I don’t think this horrible trade was as much a principal-agent problem as a “I don’t know what I’m doing” one.

9) Carolina trades its 2010 first round pick to move up in the 2009 draft to select Everette Brown (April 2009)

• Trade made by: Marty Hurney
• Pick lost for: Marty Hurney

In 2008, the Panthers earned a first round bye, so Hurney had excellent job security as of April 2009. Carolina was without a first round pick because of the Jeff Otah trade (#11), and thought a pass-rusher was the missing ingredient to a championship team. Right idea, wrong execution, and terrible results.

10) Dallas trades its 2009 first round pick to Detroit for Roy Williams (October 2008)

• Trade made by: Jerry Jones
• Pick lost for: Jerry Jones

The one positive to the owner-as-GM-model: no potential principal-agent problem. Of course, Jones still needs people to save him from himself.

11) Carolina trades its 2009 first round pick to Philadelphia for the Eagles 2008 first round pick to draft Jeff Otah (April 2008)

• Trade made by: Marty Hurney
• Pick lost for: Marty Hurney

This was an interesting deal in a few ways. For starters, it set up the Everette Brown deal, as Carolina was without a first round pick in 2009. This deal also may have been a reaction to a 7-9 season and constant rumors about Bill Cowher coming to Carolina if the Panthers struggled in 2008. As such, Hurney may have been motivated in part by self-preservation to execute this trade. Whereas a year from now Hurney would trade a future first for a current second, here he traded a current second and a future first for a current first (similar to the Ingram/Patriots deal).

Carolina had a 12-4 season, saving Hurney’s job, and Otah was a pretty good player until injuries ended his career. But this was a pretty steep price to pay for a right tackle.

12) San Francisco trades its 2008 first round pick to New England to draft Joe Staley (April 2007)

• Trade made by: Scot McCloughan
• Pick lost for: Scot McCloughan

This is the rarest of draft day birds: a bad team trades a future first round pick (which is likely to be a top ten selection) for an end-of-round 1 pick. And it worked out, as the 49ers exited the first round with Patrick Willis and Staley.

McCloughan’s story is an under-reported one. In 2004, the 49ers were the worst team in the NFL. McCloughan, who had been Seattle’s college scouting director, was hired (after the team hired Mike Nolan) as the Vice President of Player Personnel. San Francisco was probably the least-talented team in the NFL at the time, and in 2005, the 49ers were outscored by 189 points, the largest differential in the league.

McCloughan stayed as VP of Player Personnel (there was no GM) until through 2007; then he was promoted to general manager beginning in 2008. He was then forced out in March of 2010, and has been with the Seahawks ever since. And while the 49ers were not successful during his time, many of McCoughan’s picks have formed the foundation for the current 49ers team. And, of course, Seattle’s doing pretty well these days, too.

13) Indianapolis trades its 2008 first round pick to San Francisco to draft Tony Ugoh (April 2007)

• Trade made by: Bill Polian
• Pick lost for: Bill Polian

In 2006, the Colts won the Super Bowl. After the season, long-time left tackle Tarik Glenn retired, which left an unacceptable hole to protect Peyton Manning’s blind spot. While the Colts kept on winning, it had little to do with Ugoh, who struggled in the pros and started just 28 games. This move seems more reactionary and a victim of poor scouting than anything else.

14) Cleveland trades its 2008 first round pick to Dallas to draft Brady Quinn (April 2007)

• Trade made by: Phil Savage
• Pick lost for: Phil Savage

When Savage came to the Browns, the team had won 9 games the prior two years. Then in 2005 and 2006, Cleveland won… ten games. Savage surely felt his seat getting hotter, and investing in a first round quarterback is usually a good way to buy yourself some time (although this seems less likely to work in Cleveland, as Tom Heckert can attest).

At the time, this “seemed” like a good deal for the Browns only because Quinn was rumored as a top-five pick. Once he “fell” all the way to 22, trading a future first didn’t seem so bad. As we learned, there was a reason Quinn fell in the draft.  Savage was still around for the 2008 draft, when he was without a first round pick. That was his last year in Cleveland.

15) Seattle trades its 2007 first round pick to New England for Deion Branch (Sept. 2006)

• Trade made by: Tim Ruskell
• Pick lost for: Tim Ruskell

Seattle saw a study that showed 50% of first round picks are busts. Therefore, it makes sense to trade for a veteran, when you know you’re getting a sure thing. At the time, the Seahawks were coming off a Super Bowl appearance but desired an extra playmaker at wide receiver. Ruskell wasn’t on any sort of hot seat, so this move had nothing to do with the principal-agent problem and everything to do with somehow thinking Deion Branch was worth a first round pick.

16) Washington trades its 2006 first round pick to Denver to draft Jason Campbell (April 2005)

• Trade made by: Joe Gibbs/Vinny Cerrato
• Pick lost for: Joe Gibbs/Vinny Cerrato

The nuance here is that this trade occurred the week of, but not during, the NFL draft. Still, even before the draft, it was speculated that the purpose of the trade was to select Campbell with the 25th pick. Gibbs and Cerrato were not on any hot seat: the assumption here is they really liked Campbell and thought it was worth it to pay a bounty to acquire him. Add in the Palmer trade, and Campbell is the rare player who was at the center of two deals for future first round picks.

17) New York trades its 2005 first round pick (and much more) to acquire Eli Manning (April 2004)

• Trade made by: Ernie Accorsi
• Pick lost for: Ernie Accorsi

Ten years later, this trade is still tough to grade. Accorsi fell in love with Manning and simply had to have him, being content to overpay for that right to choose. And it’s pretty easy to make the case that Accorsi chose incorrectly, and that Philip Rivers turned out to be the better quarterback. But thanks to a pair of unlikely playoff runs, Accorsi’s legacy is untarnished, and he’s fondly remembered as the man who traded for Manning. That’s better than being remembered as the man who traded away John Elway.

18) Buffalo trades its 2005 first round pick to move up in the 2004 draft to select J.P. Losman (April 2004)

• Trade made by: Tom Donahoe
• Pick lost for: Tom Donahoe

File this in the Campbell/Quinn bin. After three mediocre seasons with the Bills, Donahoe went all-in on the 2004 draft. After selecting Lee Evans, he traded back into the first to get Losman. At their best, Losman and Evans did have some success, as Losman’s powerful arm (and mobility), combined with Evans’ great speed, led to some fun bombs in Buffalo, especially when the play broke down. But Losman never developed, and turned out to be Donahoe’s last first round pick. The Bills went 9-7 in 2004, but Donahoe was fired after a 5-11 season in 2005.

Conclusion

One thing is clear: in general, trading future first round picks is a poor decision. But most of the time, the impetus for the trade is less a principal-agent problem and more one of overconfidence. General managers see players slipping and believe that they know more than the rest of the NFL. General managers see a “proven veteran” and think that’s worth more than an unproven rookie. Teams want a franchise quarterback, so they see one in the back half of the first round. Teams see a shrinking championship window, and desire to mortgage the future.

On average, these picks don’t tend to work out. In fact, only one of the 18 teams on this list have won a Super Bowl since that trade (although to be fair, only one of the counter-teams that traded for a future first won a title, too). If a general manager wants to trade a future first round pick for a player, he must ask himself why that player is still available this late in the draft. Chances are, the GM isn’t as smart as he thinks he is.