As I did last year, I want to analyze the rushing stats for each team in 2014 using a metric known as Adjusted Rushing Yards per Carry. Thanks to the help of Brian Burke of Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats), we were able to conclude that the value of a first down was about 9 yards. And since we’ve previously determined that the marginal value of a touchdown is 20 yards, this means Adjusted Rushing Yards per Carry is pretty easy to calculate. Also, since Bryan Frye crunched the numbers, we might as well exclude all kneels from the process, too.
One thing to keep in mind (which I have forgotten in the past): since the NFL records-keeping process labels touchdowns as first downs, you should only assign 11 yards per touchdown if you are already giving 9 yards to all 1st downs. And since kneels are marked down as runs, you must back those out, too. As a result, here’s the formula to use:
Adjusted Rushing Yards per Carry = (Rush Yards + 11 * Rush TDs + 9 * Rush First Downs – Kneel Yards Lost [1]Since this is a negative number — i.e., 10 kneels for -11 yards — we need to subtract kneel yards to turn those yards into an add back in the numerator. ) / (Rushes – Kneels)
If we use this metric to analyze the 2014 season, how would it look? Seattle was by far the top rushing team in the NFL last year, rushing for 2,762 yards and 20 touchdowns on 525 carries, good for a 5.26 yards per carry average. But 19 of those 525 carries were kneels, and they went for -20 yards. In addition, Seattle not only led the league with 144 rushing first downs, the Seahawks gained a first down on 28.5% of non-kneel carries, also the highest mark in the NFL. Seattle averaged 8.49 Adjusted Rushing Yards per Carry, while the NFL average was 6.63. Since the Seahawks averaged 1.86 ARY/C over average for 506 non-kneel carries, that means Seattle rushed for 941 rushing yards (1.86 * 506) above average.
The full list for all 2014 teams, below:
| Rk | Tm | Rush | Yd | TD | YPC | Kneel | KY | 1D | 1D Rate | ARY/C | VALUE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA | 525 | 2762 | 20 | 5.26 | 19 | -20 | 144 | 28.5% | 8.49 | 941 |
| 2 | MIA | 399 | 1872 | 12 | 4.69 | 14 | -14 | 99 | 25.7% | 7.56 | 355 |
| 3 | BAL | 448 | 2019 | 16 | 4.51 | 12 | -13 | 113 | 25.9% | 7.4 | 332 |
| 4 | CIN | 492 | 2147 | 19 | 4.36 | 13 | -15 | 122 | 25.5% | 7.24 | 291 |
| 5 | NOR | 406 | 1818 | 16 | 4.48 | 9 | -9 | 101 | 25.4% | 7.34 | 278 |
| 6 | GNB | 435 | 1917 | 14 | 4.41 | 20 | -24 | 104 | 25.1% | 7.3 | 278 |
| 7 | DAL | 508 | 2354 | 16 | 4.63 | 17 | -18 | 106 | 21.6% | 7.13 | 244 |
| 8 | KAN | 420 | 1918 | 18 | 4.57 | 8 | -6 | 92 | 22.3% | 7.16 | 216 |
| 9 | SFO | 470 | 2176 | 10 | 4.63 | 12 | -13 | 104 | 22.7% | 7.06 | 196 |
| 10 | JAX | 360 | 1633 | 9 | 4.54 | 3 | -3 | 86 | 24.1% | 7.03 | 140 |
| 11 | PHI | 474 | 1992 | 16 | 4.2 | 17 | -12 | 109 | 23.9% | 6.92 | 129 |
| 12 | CAR | 473 | 2036 | 10 | 4.3 | 8 | -8 | 117 | 25.2% | 6.9 | 122 |
| 13 | MIN | 413 | 1804 | 12 | 4.37 | 11 | -15 | 90 | 22.4% | 6.87 | 94 |
| 14 | CHI | 355 | 1441 | 8 | 4.06 | 13 | -13 | 91 | 26.6% | 6.9 | 92 |
| 15 | NYJ | 507 | 2280 | 11 | 4.5 | 6 | -6 | 112 | 22.4% | 6.82 | 91 |
| 16 | DEN | 443 | 1785 | 15 | 4.03 | 23 | -22 | 98 | 23.3% | 6.8 | 67 |
| 17 | PIT | 423 | 1752 | 10 | 4.14 | 16 | -14 | 98 | 24.1% | 6.78 | 58 |
| 18 | WAS | 401 | 1691 | 15 | 4.22 | 6 | -6 | 88 | 22.3% | 6.72 | 33 |
| 19 | NWE | 438 | 1727 | 13 | 3.94 | 21 | -27 | 96 | 23% | 6.62 | -6 |
| 20 | TEN | 356 | 1447 | 6 | 4.06 | 12 | -13 | 75 | 21.8% | 6.4 | -81 |
| 21 | STL | 395 | 1635 | 11 | 4.14 | 9 | -10 | 79 | 20.5% | 6.42 | -84 |
| 22 | ATL | 372 | 1498 | 11 | 4.03 | 4 | -4 | 75 | 20.4% | 6.24 | -144 |
| 23 | IND | 415 | 1612 | 9 | 3.88 | 18 | -16 | 80 | 20.2% | 6.16 | -187 |
| 24 | TAM | 353 | 1375 | 7 | 3.9 | 1 | 0 | 72 | 20.5% | 5.97 | -235 |
| 25 | HOU | 551 | 2161 | 12 | 3.92 | 17 | -20 | 108 | 20.2% | 6.15 | -258 |
| 26 | DET | 396 | 1422 | 11 | 3.59 | 19 | -18 | 72 | 19.1% | 5.86 | -292 |
| 27 | OAK | 337 | 1240 | 4 | 3.68 | 5 | -5 | 56 | 16.9% | 5.4 | -410 |
| 28 | CLE | 477 | 1728 | 17 | 3.62 | 6 | -6 | 88 | 18.7% | 5.76 | -412 |
| 29 | NYG | 449 | 1603 | 13 | 3.57 | 8 | -10 | 83 | 18.8% | 5.68 | -423 |
| 30 | SDG | 398 | 1367 | 6 | 3.43 | 12 | -13 | 75 | 19.4% | 5.49 | -440 |
| 31 | BUF | 402 | 1482 | 7 | 3.69 | 10 | -13 | 65 | 16.6% | 5.5 | -444 |
| 32 | ARI | 397 | 1308 | 6 | 3.29 | 15 | -18 | 67 | 17.5% | 5.22 | -540 |
- Okay, Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson are awesome. We already knew that. So let’s give some love to the Dolphins team that ranked 2nd in ARY/C and in VALUE. Running back Lamar Miller had a phenomenally underrated season, and offensive coordinator Bill Lazor managed to effective use Ryan Tannehill as a runner in read-option packages. The only question with Miami’s running game is why don’t they use Miller more often? The Dolphins were 12th in pass attempts and 22nd in rush attempts despite ranking 26th in NY/A and 2nd in YPC (and ARY/C). As Bill Barnwell noted, Miami had the third-lowest run ratio in the league on first-and-10 plays when the margin was within 14 points.
- How about the Ravens checking in as the number three rushing team from last year? In 2013, Baltimore ranked dead last in this category with a horrific -722 Adjusted Rushing Yards over average value. [2]That number does not incorporate the kneel data, but there’s nothing that could make that statistic look respectable. As a result, it’s safe to say that Baltimore’s running game completed one of the greatest single-season turnovers in league history. Behind a retooled the line of Eugene Monroe, Kelechi Osemele, Jeremy Zuttah, All-Pro Marshal Yanda, and Ricky Wagner, running back Justin Forsett had a breakout season in 2014, and the Ravens rushing attack was the strength of the team in the post-Ray Rice era.
- The next three teams on the list feature a trio of throwback runners from the SEC, two of whom had breakout seasons in 2014. After years of mediocre play, Mark Ingram finally showed the Saints what we all saw at Alabama: a hard-hitting, effective power runner who could carry a team for stretches. Ingram’s backup/successor in college, Eddie Lacy, helped provide similar balance to the Packers efficient offense. And from a stylistic standpoint, the same was true of Jeremy Hill in Cincinnati. The Bengals rookie had 105 more rushing yards than any other player in football over the last nine weeks of the season.
- The Cowboys rushing attack, while excellent, fares slightly worse than you’d expect here. The culprit? An unimpressive first down rate. Dallas picked up a first down on 21.6% of all runs, slightly below the league-average rate. That may (or may not) be related to the fact that Tony Romo threw for a first down on a league-high 41% of dropbacks last year (including a particularly effective rate on third downs).
What about the worst teams?
- Arizona ranked 32nd in YPC, 31st in rushing yards, and 29th in rushing TDs, so it’s not a surprise to see the Cardinals at the bottom of this list. Andre Ellington gained just 660 yards on 201 carries, and Arizona’s longest run all year was just 22 yards. [3]If nothing else, Ellington, who averaged 5.5 YPC in 2013, serves as a good example of how YPC is not a very “sticky” statistic. The team is still expected to give Ellington the feature role this year, but did add a pair of Johnsons in the off-season (David, from Northern Iowa, in the draft, and Chris, from the Jets scrap heap).
- Buffalo ranked 31st in this category a year ago, which was doubly troubling when the team was in equally rough shape at quarterback. As unimpressive as the team’s passing game was, the Bills ranked dead last in percentage of carries that went for a first down. As a result, the Bills traded for LeSean McCoy and added Percy Harvin in hopes of fixing the team’s anemic running game.
- San Diego ranked 30th in , and drafted Melvin Gordon in the first round in the 2015 Draft. San Diego entered the 2014 season with what appeared to be a very impressive 3-man rotation at running back, but after injuries to Ryan Mathews, Danny Woodhead, and the implosion of Donald Brown, Branden Oliver ended up being the team’s leading rusher. Given how dominant Gordon was at Wisconsin last year, Chargers fans have every reason to expect a different finish in this metric in 2015.
- Finally, the Raiders had the second worst ARY/C of any team last year. Oakland ranked last in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns, as Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew were unable to do much of anything. Against that backdrop, one Latavius Murray 90-yard run was enough to get him the job for 2015.
As always, please leave your thoughts in the comments.
References
| ↑1 | Since this is a negative number — i.e., 10 kneels for -11 yards — we need to subtract kneel yards to turn those yards into an add back in the numerator. |
|---|---|
| ↑2 | That number does not incorporate the kneel data, but there’s nothing that could make that statistic look respectable. |
| ↑3 | If nothing else, Ellington, who averaged 5.5 YPC in 2013, serves as a good example of how YPC is not a very “sticky” statistic. |