Antonio Brown has 1,586 receiving yards, most in the NFL, which puts him on pace for 1,813 receiving yards this season.
Adrian Peterson has 1,314 rushing yards, most in the NFL, which puts him on pace for 1,502 rushing yards in 2015.
That’s pretty weird. In general, the rushing leader usually gains more rushing yards than the receiving yardage leader picks up through the air. From 1970 to 2014, the receiving yards leader “outgained” the rushing yards leader in only 10 of 45 seasons. And in only three of those years did the receiving leader “win” by more than 100 yards: in 1999 (Marvin Harrison had 1663 receiving yards; his teammate Edgerrin James had 1553 rushing yards), 1990 (Jerry Rice over Barry Sanders, 1502 to 1304), and 1982 (Wes Chandler over Freeman McNeil in the strike-shortened season, 1032to 786). On a per-game basis, it’s tough to beat what Chandler did, but Brown is on pace to become the first receiving leader since the merger (in fact, the first in the NFL since 1952) to “outgain” the rushing leader by over 300 yards.
The graph below shows the number of rushing yards by the rushing leader (in red) and the number of receiving yards by the receiving leader (in blue) for each season since 1970. This includes the pro-rated numbers for Brown and Peterson this year. As you can see, part of the reason for Brown’s “big win” is because he’s having an incredible year, and part of the reason is because for a rushing leader, 1,502 yards is pretty low.
What’s interesting is that this isn’t necessarily a referendum on Brown and Peterson, but on the league as a whole. Take a look at the same data, but using an average of the top 10 leaders in rushing yards and receiving yards:
The top receivers are gaining yards at a (1995-excepted) record high, while the top rushers are off from the stud running back days of the ’00s. In fact, the five biggest years where the top 10 receivers “outgained” the top 10 rushers are 2015 (a pro-rated 301 yards), 1995 (192), 2014 (164), 2013 (160), and 2011 (131). So while 2015 may in fact be a record-setting year, it’s more of an extension of the most recent trends than a true outlier.
Which, I think, is pretty interesting. As someone who became heavily involved in fantasy football in the 2000s, the way running backs dominated the game became woven into my DNA, and that’s pretty clearly shown here. But now wide receivers are dominating in just as significant a fashion. Again, I’m not 100% sure what the big take away is here, but I just find it pretty fascinating to look at.
What do you think?