Named in honor of Automatic Otto Graham, the Automatic Award goes to the most valuable player in the league each season. Given the value of passing for most of NFL (and AFL and AAFC) history, this award will almost always go to a quarterback. He touches the live ball more than any other player, has by far the largest impact on the outcome of his team’s success, and is arguably the most important position in team sports. [1]I don’t know much about other sports, but I have been told goalies play a pretty outsized role in winning hockey games. In basketball, I don’t know if there is necessarily a single … Continue reading By and large, I am going to give preference to players on successful teams, with the possibly flawed idea that a player may have been valuable on a bad team, but it’s hard to call him most valuable if he had a losing squad. I try my best to separate a player’s contributions from those of his teammates, but I still attempt to recognize historically dominant seasons that come on teams with other great players. After all, it is difficult to disentangle a quarterback from his receivers and protectors, a running back from his blockers, or any player from his coaches, and I don’t want to take away too much credit from a guy just because of his perceived advantages.
I have chosen most valuable players for every season back to 1920. However, given the paucity of recorded stats, as well as the nigh nonexistence of film to study, I decided to publish only the results dating back to 1946. At that point, we have nearly the same box score numbers that we have today, and there is enough game footage available to paint a fairly reliable picture of a player’s performance. Obviously, with less information the further back we go, I have less confidence in my selections with each additional year we travel into the past. At the same time, because I know it is more difficult to come to conclusions about those seasons, I’m less torn up about picking players in a tossup scenario. Today, with abundant information at my fingertips, I find myself going back and forth over two or three players almost every year, talking myself in and out of their respective qualifications to the point that words start to lose meaning and I shrink into myself like Demeter of myth.
Automatic Award Winners
The table below lists every Automatic Award winner since 1946. Read it thus: in 1946, playing in the AAFC, Otto Graham of the Cleveland Browns won his first Automatic Award.
| Year | League | MVP | Team | # |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | AAFC | Otto Graham | Cleveland Browns | 1 |
| 1946 | NFL | Bill Dudley | Pittsburgh Steelers | 1 |
| 1947 | AAFC | Otto Graham | Cleveland Browns | 2 |
| 1947 | NFL | Sammy Baugh | Washington | 1 |
| 1948 | AAFC | Frankie Albert | San Francisco 49ers | 1 |
| 1948 | NFL | Sammy Baugh | Washington | 2 |
| 1949 | AAFC | Otto Graham | Cleveland Browns | 3 |
| 1949 | NFL | Johnny Lujack | Chicago Bears | 1 |
| 1950 | NFL | Norm Van Brocklin | Los Angeles Rams | 1 |
| 1951 | NFL | Bob Waterfield | Los Angeles Rams | 1 |
| 1952 | NFL | Hugh McElhenny | San Francisco 49ers | 1 |
| 1953 | NFL | Otto Graham | Cleveland Browns | 4 |
| 1954 | NFL | Norm Van Brocklin | Los Angeles Rams | 2 |
| 1955 | NFL | Otto Graham | Cleveland Browns | 5 |
| 1956 | NFL | Bobby Layne | Detroit Lions | 1 |
| 1957 | NFL | Johnny Unitas | Baltimore Colts | 1 |
| 1958 | NFL | Johnny Unitas | Baltimore Colts | 2 |
| 1959 | NFL | Johnny Unitas | Baltimore Colts | 3 |
| 1960 | AFL | Jack Kemp | Los Angeles Chargers | 1 |
| 1960 | NFL | Norm Van Brocklin | Philadelphia Eagles | 3 |
| 1961 | AFL | George Blanda | Houston Oilers | 1 |
| 1961 | NFL | Sonny Jurgensen | Philadelphia Eagles | 1 |
| 1962 | AFL | Len Dawson | Dallas Texans | 1 |
| 1962 | NFL | Y.A. Tittle | New York Giants | 1 |
| 1963 | AFL | Tom Flores | Oakland Raiders | 1 |
| 1963 | NFL | Y.A. Tittle | New York Giants | 2 |
| 1964 | AFL | Babe Parilli | Boston Patriots | 1 |
| 1964 | NFL | Johnny Unitas | Baltimore Colts | 4 |
| 1965 | AFL | John Hadl | San Diego Chargers | 1 |
| 1965 | NFL | Jim Brown | Cleveland Browns | 1 |
| 1966 | AFL | Len Dawson | Kansas City Chiefs | 2 |
| 1966 | NFL | Frank Ryan | Cleveland Browns | 1 |
| 1967 | AFL | Daryle Lamonica | Oakland Raiders | 1 |
| 1967 | NFL | Fran Tarkenton | New York Giants | 1 |
| 1968 | AFL | Joe Namath | New York Jets | 1 |
| 1968 | NFL | Earl Morrall | Baltimore Colts | 1 |
| 1969 | AFL | Daryle Lamonica | Oakland Raiders | 2 |
| 1969 | NFL | Roman Gabriel | Los Angeles Rams | 1 |
| 1970 | NFL | John Brodie | San Francisco 49ers | 1 |
| 1971 | NFL | Roger Staubach | Dallas Cowboys | 1 |
| 1972 | NFL | Joe Namath | New York Jets | 2 |
| 1973 | NFL | O.J. Simpson | Buffalo Bills | 1 |
| 1974 | NFL | Ken Stabler | Oakland Raiders | 1 |
| 1975 | NFL | Fran Tarkenton | Minnesota Vikings | 2 |
| 1976 | NFL | Bert Jones | Baltimore Colts | 1 |
| 1977 | NFL | Walter Payton | Chicago Bears | 1 |
| 1978 | NFL | Roger Staubach | Dallas Cowboys | 2 |
| 1979 | NFL | Roger Staubach | Dallas Cowboys | 3 |
| 1980 | NFL | Brian Sipe | Cleveland Browns | 1 |
| 1981 | NFL | Ken Anderson | Cincinnati Bengals | 1 |
| 1982 | NFL | Dan Fouts | San Diego Chargers | 1 |
| 1983 | NFL | Joe Theismann | Washington | 1 |
| 1984 | NFL | Dan Marino | Miami Dolphins | 1 |
| 1985 | NFL | Dan Marino | Miami Dolphins | 2 |
| 1986 | NFL | Dan Marino | Miami Dolphins | 3 |
| 1987 | NFL | John Elway | Denver Broncos | 1 |
| 1988 | NFL | Boomer Esiason | Cincinnati Bengals | 1 |
| 1989 | NFL | Joe Montana | San Francisco 49ers | 1 |
| 1990 | NFL | Randall Cunningham | Philadelphia Eagles | 1 |
| 1991 | NFL | Warren Moon | Houston Oilers | 1 |
| 1992 | NFL | Steve Young | San Francisco 49ers | 1 |
| 1993 | NFL | Steve Young | San Francisco 49ers | 2 |
| 1994 | NFL | Steve Young | San Francisco 49ers | 3 |
| 1995 | NFL | Brett Favre | Green Bay Packers | 1 |
| 1996 | NFL | Brett Favre | Green Bay Packers | 2 |
| 1997 | NFL | Brett Favre | Green Bay Packers | 3 |
| 1998 | NFL | Randall Cunningham | Minnesota Vikings | 2 |
| 1999 | NFL | Kurt Warner | St. Louis Rams | 1 |
| 2000 | NFL | Daunte Culpepper | Minnesota Vikings | 1 |
| 2001 | NFL | Kurt Warner | St. Louis Rams | 2 |
| 2002 | NFL | Rich Gannon | Oakland Raiders | 1 |
| 2003 | NFL | Steve McNair | Tennessee Titans | 1 |
| 2004 | NFL | Peyton Manning | Indianapolis Colts | 1 |
| 2005 | NFL | Peyton Manning | Indianapolis Colts | 2 |
| 2006 | NFL | Peyton Manning | Indianapolis Colts | 3 |
| 2007 | NFL | Tom Brady | New England Patriots | 1 |
| 2008 | NFL | Philip Rivers | San Diego Chargers | 1 |
| 2009 | NFL | Drew Brees | New Orleans Saints | 1 |
| 2010 | NFL | Peyton Manning | Indianapolis Colts | 4 |
| 2011 | NFL | Aaron Rodgers | Green Bay Packers | 1 |
| 2012 | NFL | Tom Brady | New England Patriots | 2 |
| 2013 | NFL | Peyton Manning | Denver Broncos | 5 |
| 2014 | NFL | Aaron Rodgers | Green Bay Packers | 2 |
| 2015 | NFL | Carson Palmer | Arizona Cardinals | 1 |
| 2016 | NFL | Aaron Rodgers | Green Bay Packers | 3 |
| 2017 | NFL | Tom Brady | New England Patriots | 3 |
| 2018 | NFL | Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs | 1 |
| 2019 | NFL | Russell Wilson | Seattle Seahawks | 1 |
| 2020 | NFL | Aaron Rodgers | Green Bay Packers | 4 |
Some thoughts on the awards. [2]When discussing stats, I will refer most often to my own creation, Total Adjusted Yards per Play, and its variants. These include TAYP+, which is similar to Pro Football Reference’s passing … Continue reading
Sometimes we’ll get lucky and get a 2007 Tom Brady or 1984 Dan Marino type performance that will leave no doubt who the MVP was. In many seasons, however, it’s not that easy. Modern seasons that gave me considerable headaches, many of which saw me go against popular opinion, include: 1966, 1967, 1977, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1990, 1991, 2000, 2003, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2015, 2016, and 2019. I’d like to briefly discuss those seasons first.
In 1966, most publications favored Bart Starr, who was incredibly efficient for the star-studded Packers. While his rate stats were extraordinary, he was involved in just 298 plays and had incredible talent all around him. That left Don Meredith, Frank Ryan, and Sonny Jurgensen, who all had impressive numbers and produced them with less help. After watching as much as I could, I came away convinced that Ryan deserved the award, if only by a hair. It was his first season without Jim Brown, he led the league in touchdown passes while helping the Browns reach 9-5. [3]Starr led quarterbacks with a Total Adjusted yards per Play index score (TAYP+) of 124.3. He also led all players in Total Adjusted yards above average (VAL) with 1123. Meredith ranked second in both … Continue reading
In 1967, it was down to Jurgensen, Fran Tarkenton and Johnny Unitas. Unitas was the consensus pick, taking MVP honors from nearly every major publication. It’s easy to see why. He had above average stats as the leader of a team that went 11-1-2 (so did Roman Gabriel, who was more efficient on a per-play basis and probably had less offensive talent on the field with him). Sonny led the league in passing yards and touchdowns, albeit for a team with a .464 record. While the narrative of his surrounding talent is true—he was often hampered by bad overall teams—it doesn’t mean he didn’t have some great teammates at important positions. He threw to Hall of Fame receivers Charley Taylor and Bobby Mitchell, as well as borderline HOF tight end Jerry Smith. Tark, on the other hand, joined a team that won a single game the previous year, [4]With everyone’s favorite backup and eventual league MVP Earl Morrall going 1-5-1 as a starter. kept its head coach, and didn’t experience significant roster turnover. Fran was the difference. He put up impressive numbers, and looked good doing it, while dragging a sad sack squad on his back. His team went .500 and missed the postseason, but no one meant more to his offense. [5]By TAYP+ the top four players in the land were Jurgensen (117.9), Tarkenton (116.4), Gabriel (116.1), and Unitas (115.1). By VAL, the top players were Jurgensen (1804), Unitas (1432), Tarkenton … Continue reading
In 1977, Roger Staubach, Bob Griese, Terry Bradshaw, and Bert Jones were the premier quarterbacks, and Craig Morton was awfully good as well. Staubach gets my nod as the top trigger man in the league, but my Automatic Award goes to (gasp!) running back Walter Payton, whose team relied on him in a way few teams have leaned on a back in the modern game. He led the league in yards and touchdowns while running behind a line full of inexperienced and unheralded blockers. [6]Payton averaged 151.5 yards per game Sweetness led runner up Lydell Mitchell by 342 yards from scrimmage, and Mitchell was 222 yards ahead of third place. Bob Avellini played poorly, and only James Scott proved useful as a receiver.
In 1985, Payton and Marcus Allen were the popular MVP picks, with each receiving at least three awards from major voting bodies. To me, it was a five-way battle between Joe Montana, Boomer Esiason, Ken O’Brien, Dan Fouts, and Dan Marino. Fouts was easy to get rid of, having missed four games. Montana and Esiason also missed a game apiece, and both saw their offenses do well enough in their absence. I whittled it down to Marino versus O’Brien, and I went with Marino based on degree of difficulty in his offense. O’Brien had superior box score stats, but Marino bested him in both DVOA and DYAR. Further, I believe Marino was asked to do more.
In 1986, Lawrence Taylor became just the second defensive player to win the AP’s version of the NFL MVP award. He came very close to winning mine as well, with his play having a palpable impact on the entire Giants defense—a defense that led his team to a dominating postseason run and eventual championship. [7]In an interesting choice, the NEA actually chose Phil Simms as its MVP, despite the fact that he was fairly pedestrian that season. However, due to the importance of the position, and despite the fact that his team finished with a .500 record, I went with Marino. He led the league in yards and touchdowns by a country mile, he topped all passers in DYAR and ranked second in DVOA, and he may have been the only thing keeping the Dolphins from picking at the top of the draft in 1987.
John Elway won the 1987 AP MVP award. It’s not the official award (there isn’t an official award), but it is easily the most popular. Every other major publication went with Jerry Rice. Had the GOAT made it a clean sweep, he would have become the first (and still the only) wide receiver to win the award from the wire service. Elway’s strongest competitors for votes were Rice and Montana, who won the first team all pro spot. Many believe the two teammates split the vote, allowing Elway to claim the award (though one could also argue that Elway and Montana split the QB vote). It’s possible that’s what happened. Rice was clearly the best player in football that year, and Montana led the best team in a league he led in passing touchdowns. However, when I reviewed the relevant material, it didn’t come down to Elway versus a San Francisco player; it came down to Elway versus Bernie Kosar. Both quarterbacks played exceptionally without the significant advantages the two 49ers enjoyed. Based on a holistic analysis of the stats and the context in which they occurred, I felt compelled to give the Automatic Award to Elway. [8]At first glance, his stats don’t seem to compare well to those of Montana, Kosar, or even Marino—especially if you focus solely on the touchdown column. However, he had a comparable ANY/A and … Continue reading
Montana took home the AP MVP crown in 1990. He is my favorite quarterback of all time and one of my favorite players, but I couldn’t give him the Automatic Award. For me, he wasn’t even in consideration. It came down to Warren Moon (who won the NEA MVP) and Randall Cunningham (who won the award from the PFWA and Bert Bell). The Ultimate Weapon, Cunningham, had an offensive season for the ages, throwing 30 touchdowns [9]While playing quarterback for Buddy Ryan, mind you. and rushing for 942 yards while leading the Eagles to a 10-6 record. It was enough for me to give him the Sweetness Award for offensive player of the year, but I had Moon as the MVP for a very long time. His edge as a pure passer was far too large for me to ignore, and he was the driving force on a potent offense. However, when Moon’s Oilers faced the Steelers without him, Cody Carlson went 22 for 29 with 247 yards, 3 touchdowns, and a passer rating of 120.9. [10]Yes, passer rating is an outdated stat. It’s also popular and easy to weave into a narrative. You will manage to keep your head from exploding just this once. After much back and forth, the award goes to Cunningham. Ask me tomorrow, and the answer may be different.
In 1991, Thurman Thomas won the bulk of the awards. However, it isn’t clear he was even the most valuable player on his own team, as Jim Kelly ranked third in the NFL in DYAR at the helm of the K-Gun offense. Mark Rypien had the best stats and the top record of any starting quarterback, but I don’t think anyone could watch him play and declare he was actually better than Kelly, Moon, Marino, or Steve Young that year. Those stats belonged to Joe Gibbs. Young put up impressive numbers, but he missed several games and played on a loaded team. Marino was the prettiest passer, but it’s hard for me to give him another MVP award for another 8-8 season. Eventually, in a move that surprised even me, I went with Barry Sanders. I know, running backs don’t matter and all that. Sanders mattered. He was the main man on a team that reached 12-4 with eight (mediocre) games apiece from Erik Kramer and Rodney Peete. Detroit’s leading receiver had 668 yards. The offensive line featured two bad guards, a right tackle who was once okay but was near the end of his career, and a very good center and left tackle. Sanders was my man for a while. Then I looked a little more closely at Moon’s performance, which tends to be written off because it wasn’t his best year, and it saw him lead the league in interceptions. On a per-pass basis, he actually threw picks at a better than average rate. It’s just that he threw 655 passes—over 100 more than the runner up. Moon ranked second in the league in DYAR as the engine of a high flying offense. [11]The Oilers did feature a good receiving corps, but that can be said of every team that had a top notch passing performance by a quarterback that year.
In 2000, there were several quarterbacks who were viable candidates. Jeff Garcia may have been the most efficient, but his team wasn’t any good, and some of his stats were empty ones. Donovan McNabb had average numbers, but his impact on the offense was clear, and let’s not even talk about his receiving corps. Rich Gannon was a reasonable choice, but he had a stellar cast around him and did it for Gruden before the coach became a punchline. Peyton Manning controlled the line of scrimmage like few in history. He led all passers in DVOA and DYAR, and his subsequent seasons proved it wasn’t a fluke performance. Ultimately, however, I went with Daunte Culpepper, the young dynamo with the brilliant deep ball and uncanny playmaking ability. He led the NFL in touchdown passes and threw in 470 yards and 7 touchdowns on the ground as a nice bonus. Yes, Randy Moss was a freak, but the difference in surrounding talent between Manning and Culpepper wasn’t significant, in my opinion. I went with the playmaker over the steady hand.
The 2003 season was another year in which Manning gave me issues. As a passer, he was clearly the best. But something about the way Steve McNair led his team made it hard for me to pick anyone else. This isn’t just a style thing, though the way he played quarterback like a linebacker was a joy to behold. Air McNair led the league with a TAYP+ of 121.3 (Manning had 119.5) and narrowly ranked behind Manning in DVOA (36.3% to 37.1%). He did it while playing for Jeff Fisher. I don’t think I have to say much more than that.
Because I include the postseason in my evaluations, Warner was a finalist for 2008 despite a merely good regular season. Manning and Philip Rivers were the other contenders. Rivers had a slight lead in DVOA and TAYP+, while Manning held an advantage in DYAR (Brees led in VAL). Manning also had big advantages in both Total QBR and PFF grade. Their supporting casts were about even, I think, but I do think the Tony Dungy/Tom Moore duo was superior to the Marty Schottenheimer/Cam Cameron combo. Warner’s playoff heroics weren’t enough to close the gap on either. In a coin flip, I went with Rivers over Manning. I could have easily gone with the latter, and I second guess the decision still. Maybe I was just tired of giving it to the same guy and unconsciously talked myself into coronating a new king.
In 2010, Tom Brady was the most efficient passer in the league and avoided turnovers at an incredible rate. He did this with a who’s who of who cares at the receiver position. However, in the last season before his fateful neck surgery, I felt Peyton Manning carried a heavier load for the Colts. [12]Aaron Rodgers was also incredible, particularly in the postseason. He was asked to make more difficult throws for a team that was falling apart at the seams. [13]Pro Football Focus graded Manning as the third best quarterback of 2010, behind Romo and Rivers. Brady ranked seventh, trailing Rodgers, Roethlisberger, and Brees. This was highly controversial at … Continue reading In 2012, both players were terrific, and the general opinion at the time was that the MVP award was between Manning and Adrian Peterson, for some reason. Synthesizing what I believed then with what I believe now (after stepping back for some perspective), I went with Brady. Yes, Manning was on a new team and turned around the offense in dramatic fashion. But Brady led an offensive juggernaut and topped the league in both DVOA and DYAR, and we are comparing 2012 Brady with 2011 Brady while subconsciously comparing 2012 Manning with 2011 Tim Tebow (and probably thinking about the 2010 and 2011 Colts in the back of our minds). It’s close, but I’m going with Tom. [14]Pro Football Focus grade Manning as the top passer, with Brady coming in third, behind Rodgers. Manning and Brady ranked first and second in Total QBR as well.
The analytics community will have my head for thinking the 2015 race is even close. “Of course Carson Palmer should get the Automatic Award,” they’ll say. Palmer led all quarterbacks in DVOA, DYAR, TAYP/P, VAL, QBR, and PFF Grade while leading a throwback style downfield attack that would have made Namath proud. While I did pick him, I’m not convinced it’s as easy as the nerds suggest. When accounting for rushing and workload (and why the heck wouldn’t you?), both Cam Newton and Russell Wilson have legitimate claims to the award. I hated when media types were using Carolina’s record to prop up Newton’s case, but I also hated the overreaction from spreadsheet supermen. Brady, once again, was in close contention for the award as well.
In 2016, Matt Ryan produced one of the greatest statistical seasons in history. It was a thing of beauty, and we all sang songs and danced in green meadows, but I don’t believe he was the most valuable player in football that year. After accounting for teammates and, especially, offensive schemes, I thought Aaron Rodgers meant more to his team than anyone else. He had the highest total EPA of anyone in the league (by ESPN’s model), and his defense-adjusted EPA/P compared favorably to Ryan’s. I hate to go against gaudy numbers, but I don’t think anyone did a better job making lemonade than Rodgers did. Brady was the best QB in football that year, but the nonsensical witch hunt that robbed him of four games unfortunately kept him from taking the award.
Lamar Jackson ran away with the MVP awards in 2019, and with good reason. He was a deadly efficient passer who embarrassed defenses with his legs as well. Moreover, he was the leader of the league’s most dynamic offense—one which revolved around him. However, I went against the grain, picking Russell Wilson for the Automatic Award. I believe Wilson was more valuable to his team’s success. Wilson put up great traditional and advanced numbers and, like an old magician weary from pulling a new rabbit out of his hat year after year, led the Seahawks to one improbable victory after another. Seattle’s offensive line ranked 28th in ESPN’s pass block win rate (54%) and 30th in Pro Football Focus’s team pass block grade (61.5). Their rushing attack ranked 14th in PFF grade (77.4) and 6th in DVOA (2.7%), with the line sitting at 20th in run block grade (58.5) and 15th in Football Outsiders’s adjusted line yards (4.32). Schematically and philosophically, the Seahawks were hell-bent on establishing the run and forced Wilson to bail them out when they inevitably failed to do so. A product of both design and talent, receivers often didn’t have significant separation, leaving Wilson with the unenviable task of having to make tough throws into tight windows or along the boundaries in order to keep the offense on the field. He had to convert on third and long because his risk averse team possessed a mortal disdain for taking chances on fourth down. Despite all this, Seattle fielded a respectable 5th ranked offense by DVOA (17.4%). The root of this is Wilson’s stellar play. He boasted an impressed 4.8 in NFL Next Gen Stats’s completion rate +/-, meaning he was well above average when it came to completing passes based on distance, location, and receiver separation. Wilson also laid claim to PFF’s highest passing grade among full time starters. Perhaps most important, he had a comfortable lead in PFF’s WAR metric (4.08), which remains the only widely published, empirically based metric for capturing player value in the NFL (at least that I am aware of). Put these together, and you have a team that goes 11-5 and wins a road playoff game despite a point differential of just 7 in the regular season. [15]For reference, Lamar Jackson‘s Ravens boasted a 2nd ranked 69% pass block win rate. Jackson’s NGS +/- was 0.8, which is still above average. The Ravens fielded the league’s top … Continue reading
With those more controversial picks out of the way, let’s look at the other seasons on record.
Automatic Award winners of the AAFC
In 1946, 1947, and 1949, I went with Otto Graham. While he had huge advantages in terms of teammate and coaching support, his numbers were still so far ahead of everyone else’s that one would have to be contrarian for its own sake to go with someone else. [16]Glenn Dobbs took the league’s MVP Award, but I don’t think he was close to Graham in either play or value. In 1946, his TAYP+ of 126.2 dwarfed second place Ace Parker‘s 104.6. And he did it in two more games. His VAL of 1228 outstripped every other positively rated quarterback combined. In 1947, it was more of the same. This time, he led Spec Sanders in TAYP+ 130.0 to 111.3. In 1949, he led second place Frankie Albert 123.0 to 108.4, and he nearly tripled his VAL (1818 to 626). In 1948, however, Albert was on top. He narrowly led Graham in TAYP+ (115.5 to 115.4) while boasting a +19 touchdown to interception differential—a remarkable number for that era. And while the 49ers were the second most talented team in the league, they didn’t have quite the same star power as the Browns.
Automatic Award winners of the AFL
The first Automatic Award for the upstart American Football League belongs to Jack Kemp. [17]Texans back Abner Haynes won the award from the UPI and AP after leading the league in touches, rushing yards, and rushing scores. He 1451 scrimmage yards in 14 games. I ultimately felt Kemp … Continue reading Kemp is an interesting player to study because he was rarely a very efficient player, and his stats were often fairly pedestrian. At the same time, he just kept winning no matter where he went or who he played with. He was a dangerous downfield passer in an era when protecting the ball wasn’t really seen as that big a deal, and he was a terrific scramblers with a nose for the end zone. In 1960, he threw more interceptions than touchdowns, but he also led all passers in yards per attempt and per completion. He also led the AFL with four game winning drives, and he threw in eight rushing touchdowns to boot. Kemp ranked third in TAYP+ (107.0) and second in VAL (405) [18]Tom Flores (110.1) and Butch Songin went one and two in TAYP+. Songin topped the league in VAL with 453. It really wasn’t a great year for passing.
In 1961, George Blanda went crazy. Finding himself in a perfect storm of good receivers, solid blocking, and freewheeling coaching, the old man threw for 3330 yards and 36 touchdowns. Records are incomplete, but film shows that he was also fantastic at avoiding sacks and releasing the ball quickly before pressure hit home. Blanda lapped the field with a TAYP+ of 130.6 and VAL of 1560 (the highest figure in any AFL season). [19]When we account for the lack of depth defensively in the AFL, the performance becomes less impressive, but when compared against the other players in the same situation, he left them in his dust.
After washing out of the NFL, Len Dawson found his way to the young AFL, under the tutelage of Hank Stram. It was a marriage made in heaven. Dawson was mobile and accurate, great at throwing precise passes on the run and adding some deep shots in there to keep defenses honest. Stram designed his offense—which became the best sustained offense in AFL history—around his quarterback’s gifts and fielded offenses that helped the Chiefs win three AFL title games. In 1962, playing for the then Dallas Texans, Dawson posted the first of many uber efficient seasons, leading the league in both TAYP+ (122.1) and VAL (1194). He didn’t have much serious competition for the award, as the next most useful passers, Patriots passers Babe Parilli and Tom Yewcic, simply didn’t play enough to merit consideration. [20]Cookie Gilchrist took MVP honors from the UPI and AP. he led all backs with 1096 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns in 14 games. I see him more as an outstanding player rather than a necessarily … Continue reading
The 1963 season came down to Tom Flores and Tobin Rote. Rote started all 14 games, led the Chargers to the best record in the league, and boasted some mighty fine numbers. Flores began the season coming off the bench for Cotton Davidson, often using his heroics to put the trailing Raiders in position to win. He eventually took the starter role and went 8-1, including handing the powerhouse Chargers two of their only three losses of the season. Had he been the starter from Jump Street, the Chargers might still be searching for the first championship win. Flores didn’t just win; he played great football, leading all quarterbacks in TAYP+ with 121.4 and trailing only Rote in VAL (767 to 873). [21]Awarding bodies were split in 1963. The UPI went with Lance Alworth, Sporting News chose Clem Daniels, and the AP picked Rote. Bambi was lethal, as always, but I’m not certain he outplayed … Continue reading
In 1964, the three major publications that named MVPs all agreed that Gino Cappelletti was the AFL’s top dog. It’s easy to see why. He led the league in field goals attempted and made, and he added 872 yards and seven touchdowns on offense (and a two point conversion), adding up to give him the most points (155) any player scored in a single season during the AFL’s decade-long run. He was versatile and fun, but I think his teammate was more valuable. Babe Parilli went 10-3-1 as a starter, while throwing for 3465 yards and 31 touchdowns, adding another 168 yards and pair of scores on the ground. He ranked fifth in TAYP+ but had a usage rate significantly higher than those ahead of him. [22]He narrowly trailed Lamonica, Dawson, Davison, and Hadl in efficiency while involved in over 100 action plays more than any of them. Only Dawson had a higher VAL score, and he did it on a more talented team with a friendlier scheme.
The 1965 race came down to Dawson and John Hadl, for me. [23]The UPI and Sporting News went with Paul Lowe, while the AP chose Kemp. Kemp was an established star who led the Bills to a 9-3-1 record, but this was a very good team with a solid offensive line and … Continue reading No one had a runaway season at the quarterback position, and the two were the best in a down year. Dawson’s team went 6-4-2, while Hadl’s went 9-2-3. Although Dawson was a more careful steward of the ball and Hadl moved the ball downfield more aggressively, they were about even statistically. Both had very good teammates and coaches. With all the tiebreakers relatively even, I opted for Hadl, whose team I felt relied on him just a little bit more that year.
Dawson got his turn the following year. In 1966, he led the Chiefs to an 11-2-1 record and an eventual Super Bowl loss to the juggernaut Packers of the NFL. With 26 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, and the AFL’s best completion rate, Dawson easily topped everyone in passer rating (101.7). More importantly, he boasted the best TAYP+ season in AFL history (130.8) and a tremendous 1388 VAL. His main competition was Flores, who only started 10 games but put up numbers that would have likely earned him an award in most other AFL seasons (126.8 TAYP+ and 1220 VAL). Jim Nance was the consensus MVP pick among major publications, leading the league with 1561 scrimmage yards and scoring 11 touchdowns. He had a great season, but I felt Dawson provided more value to his team.
The 1967 award came down to Hadl and rising superstars Daryle Lamonica and Joe Namath. The big three publications went with Lamonica, and I went right along with them. [24]The Washington D.C. Touchdown Club went with Alworth. It was close. Hadl narrowly led the three in TAYP+ (113.9 to 112.6 and 112.1 for Namath and Lamonica, respectively), while Namath led in VAL. [25]Namath had 1192. Hadl had 1188, and Lamonica had 1057. Broadway Joe became the first pro passer to eclipse 4000 passing yards in a season, but Lamonica led the AFL in touchdowns, with 30, and threw fewer interceptions. Importantly, both the Jets and Chargers went 8-5-1, while the Raiders went 13-1. Outside of two games, the Mad Bomber was pretty careful with the football and managed to avoid the turnovers that contributed to losses for New York and San Diego.
People who never watched a game prior to 1980 but still believe they know everything about the history of football will have you believe that Joe Willie Namath was not a great quarterback. Lump those people in with the flat earthers and ignore them forever. Leading up to the Super Bowl, Namath made headlines for guaranteeing victory over the powerhouse Baltimore Colts, and he became a legend when the Jets pulled off the upset. But prior to that, he produced a season that was much better than the box score indicates. In the 1968 regular season, he threw for 3147 yards, 15 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions. When compared against Dawson (2109-17-9) and Lamonica (3245-25-15), those numbers don’t look so hot. However, his interception rate was better than league average, and the only thing making him look bad is his low touchdown total, which is easily explained by the fact that he marched his team down the field several times only to hand it off for a short touchdown run. Of New York’s 22 rushing touchdowns, two were from Namath himself, eight were from one yard, and eight more were from within five yards. Only two Jets rushing scores came outside of seven yards. [26]Billy Joe scored on carries of 15 and 32 yards. Despite willingly giving touchdowns to backs, Namath managed to post the second best TAYP+ in the league (118.8, trailing Dawson’s 121.8 that came on 138 fewer plays). Lamonica was masterful in a playoff win over the Chiefs, but Namath won the duel as the two met in the AFL title game. In the mythic Super Bowl upset, Namath completed 61% of his passes at a solid clip of 7.4 yards per attempt and had a passer rating (83.3) that would have been the second best in the AFL that year. And he did it against a dominant defense.
If the 1968 Jets opened the door to the big time, the 1969 Chiefs claimed squatter’s rights. However, their success came on the back of a stellar defense, not an MVP caliber performance by a single player. And they didn’t even have the best record that year. In fact, the creation of a new playoff format pitting the top two teams from each conference against each other is the only thing that allowed the Chiefs to reach the Super Bowl at all. [27]The prior year, the Chiefs and Raiders tied atop the AFL West and had a tiebreaker playoff game, while the AFL East champion Jets had an extra week to rest. The AFL’s best record belonged to the Oakland Raiders, led by Lamonica. The gunslinger topped all passers with 34 touchdowns and 3302 yards (the next best marks were 19 and 2734). He delivered deep strikes downfield while mitigating sacks and fumbles. The result was a league-leading 1212 VAL and 115.5 TAYP+. [28]Namath was the runner up in both metrics with 853 and 112.7. While you’re here, pour one out for Greg Cook.
Automatic Award winners of the NFL
In the modern game, I am unlikely to pick a non-quarterback as the league’s most valuable player. Given the way I define value, no other position has much of a chance. That’s why I created the World Award for most outstanding player to recognize players like Dwight Stephenson and Aaron Donald. Early football is a little different, though. Quarterbacks still tended to be the main drivers of success for the offense, but a player had to be able to contribute on defense and special teams in order to really provide value. In 1946, the Bears and Giants boasted the league’s best records, but no single player from either team stood out. Chicago, in particular, was a loaded squad that would have likely succeeded with an average player under center. The man who stood out came from 5-5-1 Pittsburgh: Bill Dudley. He led the league in touches and rushing yards, he was a plus punter and accurate kicker on extra points, he led the NFL in punt returns and return average (and all purpose yards), and he intercepted 10 passes while playing on a defense that saw only 162 opponent attempts. The Steelers weren’t a particularly good team, but Dudley kept them from a losing season. [29]The Joe F. Carr Trophy, the only official MVP the NFL has ever award, also went to Dudley.
In 1947, Sammy Baugh kept Washington from going winless. By this time, he had begun focusing primarily on offense, and his absence on defense was evident. The team held an opponent under 20 points just once on their way to a 4-8 record. To open the season, Baugh threw for 364 yards and five touchdowns, and his squad still managed to lose 42-45. That’s the type of year it was for Slingin’ Sammy. He finished the season with the most passes, yards, and touchdowns while maintaining the top completion rate and best interception rate. His 244.8 yards per game put him close to a 4000-yard in a 16-game season. He had a VAL of 1604, which was easily the best in the league, and his 118.5 TAYP+ was five points higher than second place Luckman. Washington didn’t have a good offensive line, and a rookie Bones Taylor was the only real threat other than Baugh himself. This team had no business winning a game. Luckman and Steve Van Buren were also in consideration for the award.
Statistically, Tommy Thompson Ray Mallouf, and Charlie Conerly were the premier passers of 1948, while Van Buren led all players in scrimmage yards. Dan Sandifer was a valuable special teams contributor who also picked off 13 passes for 258 yards and a pair of touchdowns. However, most of his interceptions appeared to be rather fluky rather than the product of his great coverage. Mallouf led the best team in the league, but his support was immense. Mal Kutner appeared to get open at will, and the Chicago line created big holes for Trippi and Angsman. In Philadelphia, it was a similar story. Thompson had the best stats of any passer, leading in both TAYP+ (124.3) and VAL (1516). But he played with Van Buren, Pihos, Pritchard, and a dominant line. It came down to Conerly and Baugh. Neither had particularly great support, as Washington was past its pinnacle, and New York had yet to get there. Going game by game, I believe Conerly played better overall, but Baugh elevated his team to a higher degree. This isn’t something I can prove with numbers, but video evidence shows Baugh throwing more precise passes that gave his receivers room to gain more yards, as well as taking more chances with a weak roster in order to try to upset better teams. [30]The UPI went with Pat Harder as their MVP selection.
The 1949 race came down to Bob Waterfield, Johnny Lujack, and Steve Van Buren. I originally had Supersonic Steve, the leading offensive player for the top ranked offense of the 11-1 Eagles, as my pick. [31]The major organizations didn’t pick an MVP that year, but the Washington D.C. Touchdown Club went with Van Buren. However, looking at the top to bottom strength of the team, especially the offensive line, I decided to change my pick. Waterfield quarterbacked the 8-2-2 Rams and produced adequate numbers on a talented offensive unit, and he hadn’t relinquished too much playing time to Van Brocklin by this point. He also kicked and punted well. Lujack led a very good Bears team to 9-3 with a stellar performance that saw him lead the league in passing yards and touchdowns, as well as yards per attempt and per completion. The following year, he would lead the NFL in rushing scores, but during the season at hand, he managed just two. He was also a fine kicker and could punt in a pinch. In a close one, I went with Lujack. [32]Lujack led all quarterbacks with a TAYP+ of 120.3 and VAL of 1527. Thompson (117.5 and 943) and Baugh (117.0 and 1066) were the only players within shouting distance of those numbers.
In 1950, young Norm Van Brocklin convinced coach Stydahar to give him as much control over the offense as aging star Waterfield. It was an odd season, in which the elder statesman was involved in 221 action plays, while the up and comer squeaked by him with 248. Make no mistake, Waterfield was still a star, posting the second highest TAY/P of any quarterback in the league while going 4-2 as a starter. But The Flying Dutchman outplayed him, standing behind the same line, throwing to the same receivers. He went 5-1 and posted a TAYP+ of 120.9 and a VAL of 1074 (at 544, George Ratterman was the only other passer in the league to even reach 500.) Yes, Van Brocklin had a good team around him, but he showed that he could do more with that team than even another Hall of Fame quarterback still in his prime.
The 1951 Rams offense continued the two quarterback platoon, and it proved effective, scoring 392 points in 12 games (32.7 ppg). Despite starting 10 games to Van Brocklin’s two, Waterfield was actually involved in fewer plays than the hungry youngster. The duo combined to go 8-4 and post a VAL of 2171. Had just one of those men accomplished that, it would have been one of the all time great seasons at the position. As it stands, Los Angeles fans got to witness two virtuoso passers battling only each other for the quarterback crown. This time, the old man reclaimed his title with a performance so efficient that he didn’t really need to reach great volume numbers in order to seal victories. The Washington D.C. Touchdown Club and the UPI opted for Graham, whose Browns went 11-1, largely on the strength of a dynastic defense led by Len Ford and his 21 sacks.
In 1952, the Washington D.C. Touchdown Club named Lynn Chandnois the NFL player of the year. He was a versatile player who was effective as a receiver and as a short yardage runner, and he scored two touchdown and averaged 35.2 yards on kick returns. Chandnois was on my shortlist with Graham, Billy Howton and Hugh McElhenny, the King. Despite still playing on a stacked team, Graham had a relatively down year by his standards. All of Howton’s yardage didn’t lead to much in the win column, and much of his production occurred after the game was effectively lost. The King was a dangerous open field runner, whether it be on sweeps or after catching a swing pass. He averaged 7.0 yards per carry and 14.1 yards per catch, embarrassing defenders with dazzling cuts while weaving through the secondary. McElhenny ranked second in scrimmage yards (1051) and scored nine touchdowns on offense, and he was a terrific punt returner and fine kickoff return man. I’m not married to the King as my final pick, but it wasn’t a particularly strong year for MVP candidates.
Thankfully, the 1953 MVP race was an easy choice. Automatic Otto was back to prime form, leading Cleveland to the league’s best record and a heartbreaking close loss in the championship game. A quick glance at the stats may dissuade observers from going with Graham, who finished the season with 11 touchdowns to nine interceptions. However, his six short touchdown run easily could have been passes, as could the other eight Browns rushing touchdowns from inside the 10 yard line. With an astounding 10.6 yards per pass attempt and 64.7% completion rate, Graham deftly led his offense down the field at will; that he was willing to share the glory once the team got into the red zone is not a demerit against him. Also, despite his numbers looking bland at face value, his TAYP+ of 129.6 easily led the league, and his VAL of 1831 was the highest mark of the decade. Were I to pick a runner up, it would be Van Brocklin or Y.A. Tittle. [33]The UPI went with Graham, and the Washington D.C. Touchdown Club chose Lou Groza.
The Dutchman took his second Automatic Award in 1954. [34]The Washington D.C. Touchdown Club agreed. The UPI picked Joe Perry, and Sporting News went with Groza. Like Graham’s selection the previous year, Van Brocklin as MVP seems odd at first glance. He threw 13 touchdowns and 21 interceptions, for crying out loud! But he attacked defenses with wanton fury, pressing the ball downfield like few before or since. He averaged 10.1 yards per attempt and a frankly ridiculous 19.0 yards per completion. This wasn’t the powerhouse team of a few years prior. His receivers were getting old, and his defense was significantly lacking in depth. The Rams needed a high variance attack to find success, and Van Brocklin gave them exactly what they needed.
Otto Graham played his last season in 1955, and he made it count. His Browns boasted the league’s best record and ransacked the Rams in the title game. Graham gained yardage in torrents and built early leads, resulting in a fairly low volume season for himself. He ranked tenth in pass attempts in a 12-team league but sported a gaudy 9.3 YPA and 94.0 passer rating that would have led the league decades later. His backup vultured six touchdowns from him on some very well-crafted plays, but that wasn’t what really deflated his touchdown totals. Unlike today, quarterbacks didn’t often boost their scoring throws with passes inside the five. The 1955 Browns scored 20 rushing touchdowns. Graham scored six of them; teammates scored 18 others from the ten or closer. The UPI and Sporting News concurred with my pick. The NEA went with Harlon Hill, whose speed forced defenses to reconsider their tactics. The Washington D.C. Touchdown Club went with Gene Brito, while the Columbus Touchdown Club preferred Graham’s halfback, Curly Morrison. This was another season in which the answer wasn’t obvious, and not because there were too many overqualified candidates.
In 1956, every major awarding body chose Frank Gifford as the league MVP, and I agreed for a long time. [35]The Columbus Touchdown Club picked Rick Casares. It wasn’t a terrific year for quarterbacks. Tobin Rote played well but seemed to make his biggest mistakes at the most inopportune times. Ed Brown seemed like he was just along for the ride, finding most of his success hitting a wide open Hill downfield. In the meantime, Gifford led the league in scrimmage yards (1422) while proving equally effective on the ground or as a receiver. He also tossed a couple of touchdown passes and was a decent kicker. However, when doing film study, the guy who stood out to me was Bobby Layne. The aging wild man carried his offense on his back in a way no other quarterback did, leading them to a second place finish in points scored. He didn’t have eye-popping passing numbers, but he scored five rushing touchdowns and got his running backs in position to score 16 touchdowns from inside the five. Layne was also perfect on extra points and led the league in field goal percentage (in an era when that really mattered).
Despite coaches thinking he was too stupid to play in the NFL, Johnny Unitas eventually secured a starting job and set to work proving his detractors wrong. In 1957, his first year as a full-time starter, he led the league in passes, yards, and touchdowns, as well as yards per attempt and passer rating. His TAYP+ of 114.7 and VAL of 988 both topped the league, and he managed the second best record of any starter. He led the best offense in the league to a solid record, despite his defense not quite equaling the sum of its parts. The NEA and both the Washington D.C. and Columbus Touchdown Clubs agree, while the AP and Sporting News went with Jim Brown, and the UPI landed on Tittle (my runner up).
In 1958, Jim Brown was the unanimous MVP selection among major publications [36]The voters for the Washington D.C. Touchdown Club chose Unitas. Also, the AP may or may not have also given it to Gino Marchetti. While he was obviously great, leading the league with 1665 scrimmage yards, he ranked behind second place Lenny Moore in both yards per rush and per catch, both by significant margins. [37]Brown also trailed his teammate Bobby Mitchell in rushing average. Their offensive lines were about even at that point, as Cleveland hadn’t yet added Hickerson and Schafrath. For me, it came down to Unitas and Layne. The Steelers were 0-2 and looking bad until Layne came on board and finished 7-2-1 with the team. He had the second best numbers, behind Unitas, and he was a high usage player. However, he was 0-1 with Detroit and played terribly before leaving town. Unitas missed two games but finished the year 8-2 and still managed to lead the league in touchdown passes and VAL (1143). He was the most efficient passer that year, despite calling plays designed to move the ball, not maximize his stats. His biggest knock is the quality of his teammates. In a close one, I gave it to Unitas once again.
The Colts followed up on their title season with a repeat in 1959. That same year, their field general completed the Automatic Award hat trick. Unitas led his team to more wins than any other quarterback and became the first quarterback to throw at least 30 touchdown passes in a single season. His regular season VAL of 1587 easily topped the league, and he put the cherry on top with a superb performance in the NFL Championship Game. This one wasn’t very close, but Conerly and Van Brocklin were also excellent, as was Jim Brown. [38]Unitas won MVP honors from the UPI and Sporting News. Conerly took the NEA. The two shared the AP honor.
Van Brocklin sang one of the game’s finest swan songs in 1960, winning consensus MVP honors while leading the Eagles to championship glory. [39]Some sources say the AP chose NVB, some say Schmidt, but I don’t see any evidence that the AP even named an award winner of any kind that year. He didn’t carry the same load as Unitas, and he wasn’t as efficient as Milt Plum, but I don’t believe any player was as responsible for leading a team to victory. Van Brocklin had the second best TAYP+ and VAL in the league during a 10-2 regular season (without quite the same collection of talent found in Cleveland or Baltimore). His high risk style was on display in the title game, where a rising star named Bart produced a higher passer rating (85.2 to 77.9) but didn’t get nearly as much out of his completed passes—Starr averaged 8.5 yards per completion, while Van Brocklin averaged 22.7!
The following year, Sonny Jurgensen took over for the departed Dutchman. The two were about as different as can be, but the wild youngster aptly took over for the stoic pocket passer and made it back to back Automatic Awards for Philadelphia quarterbacks. Jurgensen passed for 3723 yards and 32 touchdowns in 14 games while earning the second most wins of any 1961 passer. [40]Starr, of course, had the most. The Giants had a better record than the Eagles, but Tittle went 8-1-1, while Conerly went 2-2. The Eagles fielded a subpar defense that season, but their offense kept them in games, with Sonny leading the charge. He led the NFL in VAL (1216) and ranked third in TAYP+ (117.4).The NEA chose Tittle as their MVP. Every other publication selected Paul Hornung, who most definitely was not the most valuable member of his own team. By my reckoning, Tittle and John Brodie were Jurgensen’s primary competition for the award.
In 1962, awarding bodies were divided. The Sporting News and UPI selected Tittle, while the AP and NEA chose Jim Taylor. Meanwhile, the Maxwell Club gave the Bert Bell Award to Andy Robustelli. That season’s rendition of the Packers was the best team in the history of professional football up until that point, so I am sympathetic to the desire to pick an MVP from that group. However, Starr was merely very good that year, and Taylor ran behind an offensive line that consisted of three Hall of Famers, one all pro, and one Pro Bowler, all still in their primes. And their dominant defense hardly made offensive heroics necessary at all. To me, Tittle was the obvious pick, and I didn’t see a close second. He threw 33 touchdown passes—10 more than the next guy, Unitas—and he led all quarterbacks in both TAYP+ (122.1) and VAL (1286). Tittle fell apart in the title game, but they wouldn’t have even made the trip were it not for him.
Tittle followed up his Automatic season with an even better performance in 1963. This time, he threw 36 touchdowns to just 14 interceptions and averaged a league high 8.9 yards per pass. Those are numbers that would put him in the upper crust of passers today. His TAYP+ (125.2) and VAL (1516) were out of this world, and no one was even close statistically. Unfortunately for Tittle, he happened to catch the Monsters of the Midway in the championship game. He played one of the worst games of his entire career, with Bears applying constant pressure leading to forced passes into the heart of a talented secondary. Younger fans probably remember the 2013 Broncos setting fire to the record books and then falling on their faces in the Super Bowl. This was the 1963 version of the LOB massacre. There wasn’t a close second, in my book, but if forced to pick one, I’d say Unitas or Jim Brown. [41]Brown won MVP honors from UPI and the Washington D.C. Touchdown Club. He also took the Bert Bell Award for player of the year. The Bert Bell is supposed to be for the player of the year, but it often … Continue reading
In 1964, Unitas earned MVP honors from every major publication except for the NEA, who named his teammate Lenny Moore. Moore maintained his explosive ability as a receiver and worked to become a more effective short yardage runner that year (causing his rushing average to slip, but resulting in a profound increase in touchdowns). I love Moore, and I think he is one of the most exciting players to watch in the history of football. But he was not the engine of the Colts. Unitas called the shots, got everyone where they needed to be, and executed superbly. He posted the second best passer rating in football that year. Starr led the league, but the Packers legend attempted fewer passes and averaged a full 4.7 yards per completion less than Unitas. They were hardly playing the same game at this point. Johnny U had the best TAYP+ (121.9) and VAL (1272) in town, and no other passer was close. [42]Starr was the next most efficient, with a TAYP+ of 111.7. Baltimore proved no match for Gary Collins in the title game, and once again the Automatic winner failed to win it all.
The 1965 season came down to Jim Brown and John Brodie. Brodie was easily the top passer in football, racking up 3112 yards and 30 touchdowns, a TAYP+ of 120.0, and a VAL 0f 1302. No one else was particularly close to his VAL, as he had the best TAY/P and the most action plays of anyone. The 49ers led the league in scoring, and Brodie managed to go 7-5-1 as a starter, despite a stars and scrubs defense that simply could not get the job done. Meanwhile, Cleveland boasted the NFL’s best record, with Brown leading all players in scrimmage yards and touchdowns. He averaged 5.3 yards per carry, while talented backups Ernie Greene and Leroy Kelly averaged 3.9 and 3.8, respectively. Frank Ryan is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in history, but this was not one of his better years. He had one of the worst completion rates and yards per completion averages in the league. That’s a bad combo. The Browns defense was merely average, and Big Jim effectively carried the team on his back that year. I gave the award to Brown in a close race. [43]Remember, 1965 was not 2020. Some running backs mattered then.
In 1968, Unitas’s backup and hero for second stringers everywhere, Earl Morrall, went 13-1 and earned consensus MVP honors. [44]Leroy Kelly won the Bert Bell Award, and Ray Nitschke took the honor from the Washington D.C. Touchdown Club. Parker and Moore were gone by this point, but Baltimore was still a tough team. So tough, in fact, that they became one of the most dominant regular season teams in history and were heavily favored over the scrappy Jets in the Super Bowl. I tried to talk myself out of giving the honor to a career backup, but when I examined everyone’s case, no one else really stood out that year. Bill Nelsen and Bart Starr were good, but they also played on loaded teams. Don Meredith led the league’s top offense, but he was also surrounded by an abundance of talent. Brodie and Tarkenton led their teams to seven wins apiece, and they put up good numbers with less help. However, when I watched him, I preferred Morrall’s aggression downfield and fearlessness in the pocket. He may have been a journeyman, but he was incredible that season (before turning back into a pumpkin after the divisional round).
Roman Gabriel was the consensus MVP in 1969, and I agree. Sometimes it’s simple. Gabriel led the Rams to 11 wins and led the NFL in touchdown passes (24) and VAL (1012). His TAYP+ of 115.7 was second only to Craig Morton‘s 116.1, but Gabriel was involved in 100 more action plays than the Dallas passer. He was a quickstrike passer who was able to get the ball off fast and avoid sacks. Impressively, he also limited interceptions rather than trading them for sacks, so he rarely put the Rams in a bad position. If I had to pick a runner up, it would be Morton or Jurgensen.
After years of getting the bridesmaid treatment, John Brodie finally got the Automatic Award in 1970. He led the league in yards and touchdowns, and he also topped all passers in rate stats such as interception rate, sack percentage, and ANY/A. His TAYP+ (132.0) and VAL (1713) are both the ninth highest marks among all qualifying quarterbacks in history. [45]That is, a minimum of 224 action plays. He did it with a good, but not great, supporting cast, and he continued his career-long tradition of thriving in the face of an incredibly difficult defensive schedule and playing for a fanbase that seemed to hate his guts. Tarkenton is my runner up.
In 1971, the AP gave their MVP award to a defensive tackle who didn’t even have his best year. The NEA gave it to a low volume passer on a team with a good record. I was closer to the latter. The Dallas Cowboys were 1-3 in games started by Craig Morton—a very good quarterback with a track record of strong play. They were 10-0 with Roger Staubach taking charge. [46]Staubach also came off the bench and outplayed Morton in two Cowboys losses. I believe Dallas would have gone 13-1 had he started the full season. He wasn’t a high volume passer, but he was incredible at throwing precise strikes on the run or taking off and picking up a first down with his legs when the coverage was sound. Roger Dodger had the highest TAYP+ (131.5) and VAL (1242) in the league, both by significant margins. He continued his superb play in two of Dallas’s three postseason games, helping thwart the Dolphins in the Super Bowl.
Washington running back Larry Brown, who played every down like a fight to the death, earned consensus MVP honors in 1972. Brown led the league in scrimmage yards despite missing two games. Washington lost both games he missed. However, the loss to Dallas was due to the defense allowing two opponents to rush for over 100 yards, and their loss to the Bills was due to Kilmer playing like crap. Brown is a joy to watch play football, but Joe Namath was the most valuable player in football that year. He was as vicious as always, leading the next closest passer in YPC by nearly a full yard and posting an absurd 143 NY/A+. He forced the ball downfield and didn’t take sacks. Yes, he threw too many interceptions, but he more than made up for them by throwing touchdowns or getting his team in position to score. Want a runner up? How about Greg Landry?
In 1973, I went against the principles of analytics and picked O.J. Simpson for the award. Gabriel was responsible for more of his team’s offense, and he had the highest VAL in the league, but he seemed almost scared to throw the ball unless the receivers were open. It results in great interception numbers, but it also saw him fumble 10 times and turn all of his passing stats into a whopping five wins. Hadl had the highest TAYP+ and tied Griese for the most wins for a quarterback, but he barely did anything that year. This wasn’t the young gunslinger from the AFL. He was now an aging caretaker. So we’re back to Orenthal the bus driving murderer. The Bills won nine games with an average defense and some of the worst quarterback play in the league. Buffalo’s leading receiver had 427 yards and three touchdowns. The Electric Company hadn’t quite fully charged at this point, but the Juice produced nonetheless.
The next year came down to Tarkenton and two guys named Ken. Haggard Raiders star Stabler took the MVP award from most publications, and I am compelled to agree. Anderson had the top passer rating and led the league in yards, but he took way too many dumb sacks. Tarkenton had gotten his sack problem under control by that point, but he still appeared to go off script way too quickly, often leaving his offensive linemen looking confused about his intentions and his coaches looking irritated on the sideline. Stabler was a party animal who didn’t put much stock in studying. Still, he led Oakland to the most wins in the league in 1974 while he boasted the top TAYP+ of all quarterbacks (123.0). Imagine what he could have done if he cared.
In 1975, the Steelers were easily the best team in the league. However, they were great top to bottom and didn’t have a single standout MVP type player. Anderson, Tarkenton, and youngster Bert Jones were the three players who stood out to me. Each led his team to a great record and posted great stats. Anderson had the best numbers, but he was throwing to wide open Curtis and Joiner most of the season. Jones was a dynamic athlete who was probably the most “toolsy” quarterback up until Elway came along. His best receivers were a running back and a tight end, but he also had a coach who schemed offenses with aplomb. Tarkenton was old now, no longer a scrambler. But he had settled down and cut down on some of the mistakes the hindered him as a young man. He made good choices and, ultimately, led the league in scoring passes with Chuck Foreman and John Gilliam on the receiving end of most of them. In a close call over Jones, the award goes to Tarkenton.
Jones didn’t win the award the previous season, but he was the easy choice in 1976. Now a full-fledge star, Jones weekly made highlight type plays look routine. He could make any throw with precision, and his teammates seemed to elevate their play with him around. He led the league in TAYP+ (129.7), and his VAL of 1933 is the fourth highest mark in history. Stabler almost usurped him for the award with his incredible postseason run, but weighing the entire season, including the games Stabler missed, I felt Jones was the more valuable player.
The 1978 season was a fun year for MVP/player of the year awards. The AP and Maxwell Club gave it to Terry Bradshaw. The Pro Football Writers Association, the NEA, and Football Digest chose Earl Campbell. The Sporting News liked Campbell and Archie Manning. I have little doubt Bradshaw was the most important player for a team that went 14-2 in the NFL’s first 16-game season. However, the team was still quite deep, and he had great skill players around him. Manning managed seven wins on a team that wasn’t very good, which is impressive in itself. For my money, however, Staubach was again the most valuable player in the league. His TAYP+ and VAL were both tops, and he led the ‘Boys to 11 wins. Dallas led the NFL in scoring without quite the same level of offensive talent found in the Steel City.
I didn’t seem to get tired of naming Staubach my MVP, as Captain Comeback takes the award in 1979 as well. He was among the league leaders in touchdown passes and managed a good completion rate and league-best interception rate despite a fairly high yards per completion figure. His TAYP+ (122.3) and VAL (1193) topped the charts with daylight second. Jim Zorn, Dan Fouts, and Bradshaw were also in the mix for the Automatic Award.
In 1980, Brian Sipe won every major award except for the NEA (Earl Campbell) and the Bert Bell (Ron Jaworski). For me, it came down to Sipe and Jaws. They were the two most efficient passers in the land, and they led their squads to division titles before ultimately seeing their seasons end at the hands of the Oakland Raiders. On film, I think Sipe had to do a little more, and his offense didn’t have the luxury of the league’s top scoring defense. Sipe gets the nod.
Ken Anderson had some big advantages when he played for Bill Walsh, but in 1981 he produced his best season with the Genius coaching in Frisco Bay. He was the most consistent passer in the regular season, and he supplemented his dinking and dunking with some lethal downfield passing. Fouts was close, statistically, but he had a much better supporting cast. Montana had the better record, but he wasn’t quite Joe Cool of legend at this stage in his career. The sleeper choice this year is Doug Williams, who helped out his strong defense by giving life to an otherwise moribund offense. In the end, however, it was Anderson’s award to lose. [47]Dr. Z named Joe Klecko the player of the year, but I don’t believe the good doctor actually meant Klecko was the league’s most valuable player.
In 1982, many publications decided to be cute and name a kicker their MVP. That selection remains in their record books, and there’s nothing they can do to erase it now. [48]The NEA and PFWA were smart enough to pick Fouts, and Football Digest and the Maxwell Club had to good sense to go with Theismann. To me, there was Fouts, then a big empty space, then Anderson, then everyone else. In the nine game strike-shortened season, the Air Coryell trigger man passer for 2883 yards and 17 touchdowns. That’s a pace of 5125 yards in 16 games, which would have gotten him to the celebrated 5000 mark two years earlier than Marino. It also would have been the fourth year in a row that he broke the single season record for passing yards. It wasn’t just volume. Fouts led all passers in NY/A and ANY/A, and his VAL of 1812 is the seventh highest mark ever. [49]Dr. Z elected Dwight Clark as his player of the year. The same thing can be said about him that was said about Klecko.
The 1983 contest came down to Montana and Theismann. Both played for creative offensive coaches and with solid offensive support, but they also both managed to play better than I’d expect a random good quarterback to perform in the same situation. Riggo got a lot of the glory, but much of his success was based on the run blocking dominance of the Hogs. Montana led the league in DYAR and led all full time starters in DVOA, while Theismann led in VAL and TAYP+. I loved Montana’s surgical approach to attacking defenses. Ultimately, however, I preferred the way the Washington quarterback was able to limit turnovers while taking chances and making big plays. [50]Dr. Z went with Eric Dickerson this time.
In 1984, the choice was about as easy as it gets. Marino broke football that year. He was so dominant that Joe Montana produced arguably the best regular season of his career, and no one bothered to mention it. In a normal year, Montana’s 14-1 record with a 130.3 TAYP+ and 1428 VAL would be easy choices for the MVP award. [51]If I weighted postseason performance in a championship leverage style, Montana would blow away everyone else. He was marvelous in the playoffs. But Marino won 14 games himself and became the first player in history to pass for over 5000 yards in a season. His record 48 touchdown passes shattered the existing mark. And his TAYP+ (138.9) and VAL (2250) both rank second in history. Big up to Jim McMahon who was an incredibly efficient winner but couldn’t stay on the field.
Three different players earned major accolades in 1988. Boomer Esiason was the majority pick for MVP, but Roger Craig earned the nod from the NEA and Dr. Z, while Cunningham took the Bert Bell. I love the Ultimate Weapon as much as the next guy, but the Maxwell Club showed its historical Philadelphia bias here. Marino had the highest DYAR and played superbly after losing Dwight Stephenson, but he just couldn’t do quite enough to get the award. Esiason had the next best DYAR and led the league in DVOA, VAL, and TAYP+ while serving as the primary driver of the top offense in football. He was a brilliant downfield passer who kept defenses on their heels all season. Unfortunately, three minutes of Montana voodoo kept him from hoisting the Lombardi at season’s end.
Montana continued his magic in 1989. It was an interesting year because he was clearly the best-performing quarterback of the season, but his backup went undefeated and had better numbers in his absence. To be fair, that backup was also a Hall of Famer and among the best ever to play the position. But it does raise an argument that perhaps you aren’t that valuable if your backup is also great and can get the team where it needs to go without you. With that in mind, I entertained the notion of awarding Jim Everett, who led the league in touchdowns and had good efficiency numbers and a solid record. However, his teammates were also very good, even if his scheme wasn’t quite on par with San Fran’s. What really slammed the door or anyone else was Montana’s performance in the postseason, which remains the best of all time. After reaching a VAL or 197 in the Divisional Round, he posted a 159 VAL in the NFC Championship Game. Then he led the 49ers to the most lopsided victory in Super Bowl history, throwing five touchdown passes and reaching a, frankly, absurd 260 VAL. His total postseason VAL of 616 is easily the best mark ever, without a close second.
For my money, Steve Young‘s 1992 is one of the most underrated regular seasons in history. A tough loss to a great Dallas team in the NFC Championship game may be to blame. Leading up to that, however, Young was a marvel. His 45.1% passing DVOA was the highest of his career (and the seventh highest in the Football Outsiders database). His TAYP+ of 130.9 and VAL of 1569 are among the best ever. He managed the most touchdowns and highest YPA in the league and the best completion and interception rates. What’s more, Young ran for 537 yards and four touchdowns while leading the 49ers to a 14-2 record. Yes, San Francisco boasted a standout roster on offense, but Young put up better numbers than even Montana. The runner up: Marino, who dragged a bad team kicking and screaming all the way to the AFC Championship game. [52]Most major publications went with Young. The lone dissent came from the NEA, who chose Emmitt Smith.
In 1993, Emmitt Smith won consensus MVP honors after gaining 1900 yards and scoring 10 touchdowns for the defending champions out of Dallas. Smith famously sat out two games to start the season. The Cowboys lost those games—half of their losses that season. Perhaps Smith’s presence would have turned a three point loss to the Bills into a victory, but the team’s season opener in Washington saw them have no answer for Rypien and Brian Mitchell. I doubt he would have changed much in that game. For my money, the league’s most valuable player was the quarterback who led the league’s highest scoring offense—scoring 97 points more than the second place Cowboys. Steve Young topped the league in TAYP+ (125.9) and VAL (1347). Aikman and Elway may have been better as pure passers that season, but not by much, and certainly not enough to outweigh the 407 yards and two touchdowns Young added on the ground. [53]Aikman led the league in DVOA, followed by Old Man Montana, and then Young. Elway ranked first in DYAR, with Young in second. The 49ers were a strong team that rostered arguably the best player in the league, but they didn’t click quite the same without their QB1. [54]Of course I mean Jerry Rice. I did not give Rice the World Award for most outstanding player that year, but he was the runner up. Dr. Z did name the receiver his player of the year. Given his pinpoint passing, command of the offense, and superb postseason play, Aikman is my runner up.
The following season was not a close competition. In 1994, Young threw 35 touchdowns to 10 interceptions; his +25 differential was more than the total touchdown count of all but three other passers. [55]Favre, Marino, and Bledsoe. His passer rating led the league by 22.1 points, and his 8.6 yards per pass was straight out of the 1950s (in a good way). If that wasn’t enough, he added seven touchdown runs to the mix. Young’s TAYP+ of 135.1 remains the fifth highest mark ever, while his VAL (1679) ranks tenth. His DVOA of 43.7% easily stood atop the league, and his DYAR outstripped the next best by nearly 300. [56]Aikman had the second best DVOA at 25.7%, while Marino took silver in the DYAR race with 1349. Then he went into the playoffs and led San Francisco to 131 points in three games (43.7 ppg) and a total VAL of 418. That includes a record six touchdown performance in a Super Bowl victory that was more lopsided than the final score indicates. There wasn’t a close runner up, but if forced to choose, I would take Marino, who played brilliantly for a less talented team. [57]Young took consensus honors among the major sources, but Football Digest selected Barry Sanders.
The 1995 race came down to four players: Brett Favre, Scott Mitchell, Erik Kramer, and Troy Aikman. Aikman had the best record and the league’s top passing DVOA (35.3%), and he once again reserved his best play for the postseason. Kramer started 16 games for the only time in his career, and he actually looked like he could have been a successful passer with ample opportunity. He led the league in DYAR and ranked second in DVOA with Jeff Graham and Curtis Conway as his top receivers. Mitchell had a career year of his own, tossing 32 touchdowns to 12 interceptions and ranking second to all passers in both VAL and DYAR. Sanders and Herman Moore made life pretty easy on him, though. Favre led the league in TAYP+ and VAL, and he ranked third in both DVOA and DYAR. He was a better system quarterback than many remember, showing mastery of the West Coast Offense with excellent timing passes and elevating a rather pedestrian group of receivers. The young gunslinger also had a cannon attached to his right shoulder and, when needed, could make plays off script like few could. Before he became a parody of himself, he was the obvious next big thing and best quarterback in football. The award goes to Favre.
Favre kept the crown in 1996 as well. he was the most important player on one of the very best teams in history. The Packers led the league in scoring without a single skill position player reaching 1000 yards. Neither of the team’s top receivers played the full season. Regardless, Favre managed 39 touchdowns to just 13 picks while producing the second best VAL and DYAR in the NFL. His measured efficiency wasn’t elite, but much of that is because the Green bay offense was effectively Favre, Holmgren’s brain, and a bunch of other guys just trying their best to keep up. I’m of the opinion he also deserved the Super Bowl MVP for his three touchdown performance. [58]People focus on the low completion rate, but his VAL was 110, and his VAL/P was +3.05, which would have led the league by a huge margin if he achieved that mark over a full season. It wasn’t all that close, to me, but my runner up is Drew Bledsoe.
In 1997, Sanders was the consensus pick, though the AP made him share the award with Favre. Though he was great and overcame his surroundings in a way few backs ever could or ever have, I couldn’t give it to Barry. Instead, I honored Favre with the threepeat. He often started off erratic in games, but he managed to pull it together by the end to lead his team to 13 wins. In the aftermath of a tragic addiction to painkillers that could have claimed his life, he continued to fight for every yard and approach each play with the same reckless disregard for his safety that he always had. He played ugly, often doing things no coach would ever teach, but still seemed to make magic happen. Marino and Brunell had a higher DYAR, and plenty of quarterbacks surpasses his DVOA. By VAL and TAYP+ his season was very good, but not statistically on par with a normal MVP season. The thing is, no other quarterback had a typical MVP type season either, and many played with much more talented offensive teammates than Favre did. I love Brunell, but he found himself at the helm of a team with Jimmy Smith and Keenan McCardell catching passes and Tony Boselli and Leon Searcy bookending his line. The 49ers lost ice for the year, but Terrell Owens stepped up, and Garrison Hearst was a beast. Elway had a stacked offense. Bledsoe did an admirable job with his team, but he wasn’t quite on par with Favre. Pick your own runner up.
Running back Terrell Davis earned MVP honors from most major publications in 1998. It’s easy to see why they picked him. After a 2000 yard regular season and 600 yard postseason, culminating in a Super Bowl MVP the previous year, Davis went over 2200 yards and scored 23 touchdowns in 1998. The awards from other sources do not include the playoffs, but the workhorse topped 500 yards in the postseason on the way to a repeat title victory. He averaged 5.1 yards per rush while his backups averaged 3.1. However, despite all this, I believe Elway was still the MVP of the Broncos. As far as the league as a whole, I am inclined to side with the NEA and Maxwell Club, who chose a resurgent Cunningham as their MVP/player of the year. [59]Dr. Z went with Marshall Faulk as his player of the year. Brad Johnson started the season 2-0 before going down to injury. Cunningham came in and went 13-1 the rest of the year, handily outplaying Johnson (and every other quarterback). In his old age, he learned to stop taking so many sacks, and his deep ball skill meshed perfectly with the arrival of rookie phenom Randy Moss. Cunningham led all passers with a 45.1% DVOA and 1598 DYAR. His 135.2 TAYP+ is the fourth highest in history, and his 1580 VAL is a top 20 mark. It wasn’t just deep balls to Moss, although those were certainly useful. He was decisive on his reads and was precise on passed to all levels of the field. Fellow old man Vinny Testaverde is the bridesmaid, with Young and Elway not far behind.
Although everyone’s favorite Cinderella hero, Kurt Warner, earned consensus MVP honors in 1999, and I agreed, I didn’t think it was quite as close as advertised. The Rams had the best record in the NFC, and Warner became the first quarterback since Marino to pass for more than 40 touchdowns. He was a fearless downfield passer and one of the very best intermediate passers ever to play. His touch and precision were uncanny, and he remains one of the most accurate passers in history. [60]By accurate, I mean the placement of the ball, not his measured completion rate. While Warner did manage the top completion rate in the league, he did so on some incredibly difficult passes. His … Continue reading The knock, of course, is that he played with a Hall of Fame running back, a Hall of Fame tackle, a Hall of Fame receiver, and another receiver who may have been better than the one in Canton. However, all you had to do was watch them play to see how Warner set the team up for success. Close behind was second year quarterback Peyton Manning. He boasted the second best DVOA and DYAR, both narrowly behind Warner’s, and he tied Warner and Brunell for the most wins as a starter. He helped turn his underachieving receiver into a star, and he brought a new cerebral element to the game that had hitherto been seen, effectively leading to the way the position is played today.
When it came time to vote for MVP of the 2001 season, opinions were split. The AP, NEA and Football Digest selected Warner, while the PFWA, Sporting News, and Maxwell Club chose Faulk. [61]Dr. Z chose Michael Strahan as his player of the year, but this was not a pick for MVP. There is an argument to be made that if two people on the same offense are in the running for MVP, neither of them is truly the most valuable player in the league. I am sympathetic to that reasoning, but I don’t believe it must always be true. The Rams once again topped 500 points and held the league’s best record. Faulk gained 2147 yards and scored 21 touchdowns, and his ability as both a runner and a receiver made life hard on defenses. However, I believe it was Warner’s ability to deftly complete short and intermediate passes, particularly against the blitz, as well as bleed defenses with the deep ball, that made the team truly terrifying. Sure, he threw 22 interceptions, but he also led the league in yards, touchdowns, yards per pass, yards per completion, and passer rating. He also topped the charts in DVOA and DYAR, as well as TAYP+ and VAL. Like the gunslingers of old, you simply had to be willing to take a few turnovers as the byproduct of all the huge plays Warner generated.
Had he managed to stay healthy, I probably would have given the 2002 Automatic Award to the typically underrated Chad Pennington. Unfortunately, he proved to be about as durable as the notion of masculinity and was unable to complete the full season. [62]Pennington managed to play 10 or more games four times in his career. He led his teams to the postseason in each of those years. Instead, I went with the consensus and took West Coast maestro Rich Gannon. The 37 year old Gannon led the geriatric crew of Rice (40), Brown (36), Garner (30), Wheatley (30), Crockett (30), and Kirby (32), along with young buck Porter (24), all the way to an embarrassing loss in the Super Bowl. The offense’s atrocious performance against perhaps the best pass defense in history notwithstanding, Gannon was remarkable all year. He was a high volume and high percentage passer who maintained control of the ball and usually mitigated mistakes. Gannon wasn’t the playmaker type to take over a game himself, but he played superbly within himself. [63]Dr. Z chose Priest Holmes as his player of the year.
After sharing the AP award the previous year, Peyton Manning earned consensus MVP honors in 2004. It was an easy pick. He broke the single season touchdown record, despite attempting fewer than 500 passes, and he also broke the record for passer rating. Manning was a supercomputer on the field, and his performance remains the best I have ever witnessed a quarterback perform (until he found himself in Foxboro in January, that is). His TAYP+ (142.2) and VAL (2258) are both the highest of any season in history. In fact, his TAY/P of 9.16 still hasn’t been matched, despite increasingly inflating passing numbers. His 58.9% passing DVOA is the highest in Football Outsiders history. By this point, everyone knows about this season, so let’s take a brief look at two other notable performances. Daunte Culpepper had a year that would have earned him an award in most other seasons, with 39 touchdown passes and an addition pair of touchdown runs. His 1648 VAL was impressive, and he did it without a healthy Randy Moss. Injuries robbed him (and us) of his career while he was still in his prime, but those who paid attention realized how special he was. Donovan McNabb took a beating from Eagles fans and media, but when he finally got a top notch receiver in Terrell Owens, he showed what he can really do. He led Philadelphia to the Super Bowl and posted a TAYP+ of 125.3 and VAL of 1369. The city has not seen a quarterback of his caliber since.
In 2005, Shaun Alexander won consensus MVP honors, while Tiki Barber earned the player of the year nod from Dr. Z. [64]Brad Oremland also chose Barber. While I am more inclined to side with the good doctor on his choice of running backs, I never considered either for the Automatic Award. To me, it was Peyton Manning, with Carson Palmer and Tom Brady finishing on the podium. Manning led all players in TAYP+ and VAL, as well as DVOA and DYAR. He led the Colts to 14 wins, based on the strength of their passing offense. Palmer led the league in touchdowns and proved a deadly deep passer when called upon. Brady led all passers in yards as he continued to master the position. Palmer and Brady thrived in the elements during home games, but Manning also proved capable in away games against AFC North opponents.
Nearly every publication in 2006 chose LaDainian Tomlinson as their guy. [65]Dr. Z went with feel-good story of the year, Drew Brees. Tomlinson was great, but the most valuable player, in my opinion, was Manning in a landslide. His 51.3% DVOA was more than double the next closest passer, and his DYAR of 2317 is the fifth highest total ever (and third highest among his own seasons). His TAYP+ of 130.1 is the 19th ranked season in history, and his VAL of 1667 ranks 12th. By ESPN’s QBR, he was nearly 18 points higher than second place. [66]His 86.4 was 17.8 points higher than Brady’s 68.6. It remains the second highest ranked season by that metric. Pro Football Focus graded him at 94.0—a grade 8.6 points higher than next man up Brees. Apart from the stats, he was visibly at the peak of his profession. He led drives at a virtuoso level, nearly always seeming to make the right audible, and he was the closest to the old field general archetype of Unitas and Van Brocklin that the league had seen in years.
One of the easiest selections ever was Brady in 2007. If you like wins, he had them, going undefeated in the regular season. If you like stats, he had those too, becoming the first player to reach 50 touchdown passes in a season and posting the top DYAR performance in the Football Outsiders database. [67]And second best DVOA, after Manning’s 2004.. His QBR of 87.0 is the highest in ESPN’s database (back to 2006), and his VAL of 2074 ranks third all time. This wasn’t just a man chucking it to Moss and hoping for the best. Brady was making accurate passes to all levels of the field, and having a talented receiving corps just took an already great quarterback to the next level of production. Manning was my runner up, but it wasn’t that close. He was second in DVOA, DYAR, and VAL and third in TAYP+ and QBR. Somewhat controversially, he was the highest graded passer by Pro Football Focus. Tony Romo and Favre were also very good. [68]Brad Oremland chose Brian Westbrook.
The race for the 2009 award was close. Philip Rivers led all players in VAL, leading Drew Brees by less than half a yard. Favre, Manning, Romo, and Rodgers were close. Rivers also led everyone in TAYP+ (124.0), once again narrowly over Brees (123.2). He also led in DVOA (41.7%), with Brady (40.4%), Brees (36.7%), Favre (34.5%), and Manning (34.0%) not too far behind. By DYAR, Brady takes the top spot, based on efficiency over a large volume of plays. Brees led the league in Total QBR, besting runner up Peyton Manning 82.0 to 80.7. By Pro Football Focus’s grading, Favre topped all quarterbacks, with Rivers and Brees close, and then Rodgers and Manning making a close next tier. Each quarterback mentioned led his team to a good record, and each was clearly the driving force for their team’s offensive success. With such a close regular season, the postseason had to serve as the tiebreaker. While Manning, Rivers, and Rodgers played well, Brees was the best. He made all the throws with rare precision, and he avoided costly turnovers on the way to hoisting the first Lombardi New Orleans had ever earned. [69]Manning won MVP honors from the AP, PFWA, and Sporting News. Rivers earned the PFF honor. Brees earned the Bert Bell Award, as well as MVP honors from Brad Oremland.
After a brilliant performance in the Super Bowl, Aaron Rodgers went on to post one of the most celebrated seasons of any quarterback in history in 2011. He went 14-1 as a starter and threw 45 touchdown passes in 15 games. He led all passers in touchdown rate and yards per attempt, and he ranked second in completion and interception rate. His 122.5 passer rating remains the single season record. His TAYP+ of 135.2 ranks third among all quarterback seasons in history, while his 1896 VAL ranks fifth. He ranked first in DVOA (46.6%) and second in DYAR (2059). Rodgers also topped the charts in Total QBR and ranked second in PFF’s grading system. He took consensus MVP honors. So why was it close? Because Brees played out of his mind that year. The Saints trigger man ranked second in TAYP+, VAL, DVOA, and Total QBR. He ranked first in DYAR and PFF grade. He destroyed the single season record for passing yards and somehow managed to do that while completing over 71% of his attempts. And he did it while throwing the ball 155 more times than Rodgers, shouldering a load like few have before or since. Brees did not sit out a game, only to see his backup throw six touchdown passes. And he did not play poorly in a first round playoff loss. Instead, he led his offense to 45 points in a Wild Card victory and 32 points in a Divisional Round loss that saw him throw a go-ahead touchdown pass with a mere 1:48 left in the game (only to watch his defense surrender the lead to Alex Smith). So, yea. I believe it was much closer than the consensus seemed to believe at the time. I still went with Rodgers, but it is a selection I have second guessed more than once.
One of the wackiest things I can say about Peyton Manning’s 2013 performance is that I don’t believe it is one of his two best seasons. it was good enough to make him the easy MVP choice, but the guy just had some otherworldly seasons. Building on his success in his first year in Denver, Manning shattered the single season touchdown record and even squeaked by the yardage record. He topped all players in DVOA and DYAR, as well as VAL. [70]Nick Foles and Josh McCown managed to best him in TAYP+, but he threw over one hundred passes more than the two of them combined. Manning had the highest Total QBR and led all quarterbacks in PFF grade. He led the first ever 600-point team in history, and his offense led the charge for a team that was the clear second best squad in the league. Manning came unglued in the Super Bowl, but he was amazing up until that. Rivers is my number two.
In 2014, Rodgers led the NFL in TAY+ (129.5), VAL (1311), and DVOA (32.7%). He narrowly ranked second in DYAR, trailing Ben Roethlisberger by eight on 86 fewer passes. His 38 touchdowns passes trailed Andrew Luck‘s 40 and Peyton’s 39, but he threw 11 fewer picks than the Colt and 10 fewer than the Bronco. Rodgers ranked second in Total QBR (77.8) to Romo (79.2). The area he set himself apart most was in PFF’s grading system, where his 93.3 grade was significantly higher than second place Brees’s 89.1. The Packers had a decent receiving corps, but you could see on film that McCarthy was beginning to mail it in. The creative chemistry that helped define the first few years of the Rodgers era was already fading, though the offense hadn’t gone completely wacky with iso routes just yet. For his work leading in a plurality of metrics, as well as looking the part on film, despite facing an uphill battle against his coaching staff, Rodgers gets the award. But there were some other strong contenders. Prior to injury, the elder Manning once again looked like an MVP. Afterward, and through the end of his career, he was not the same player. Roethlisberger threw the ball a lot, and he did it well. It was fun to watch him carry the load like that, given his reputation as a passenger early on. Romo was near the top in most metrics (first in QBR, second in DVOA and TAYP+, fourth in VAL, fifth in DYAR) and graded well. The Dallas line was stellar, but Dez Bryant was the only receiving option who seemed capable of doing anything on his own. Playing behind a suspect offensive line and throwing to a receiving group with only one real threat, Luck did an amazing job overcoming his surroundings to lead the league in touchdown passes and give Indy fans the tragic specter of hope. [71]Rodgers was the consensus MVP, but J.J. Watt took the Bert Bell Award, the Stephenson Award from PFF, and the MVP nod from Brad Oremland.
For much of 2017, Carson Wentz was an MVP favorite. He had good numbers, made some impressive highlight reel type plays, and went 11-2 as a starter. Foles may have taken the glory for his great Super Bowl performance, but I don’t believe the Eagles would have been a Wild Card team without Wentz. [72]He won the Bert Bell Award for player of the year, though I remind you again that the Maxwell Club is based in Philadelphia. The depths to which he has since fallen shouldn’t cause us to forget that he was actually great once. Alex Smith led the league in TAYP+ and VAL, but his more advanced stats were merely good, not great. He worked well in the Reid offense, especially early on when he challenged defenses deep. However, he regressed into his conservative self late in the season and was no longer very effective. Rodgers was doing an incredible job elevating his team, but he was injured with only seven games played. Brees and Rivers were efficient passers, despite both losing something on their fastball. Russell Wilson led the league in touchdown passes, and he led his team in both rushing yards and scores. His offensive line was awful, and his coaching staff often put him in positions in which he had to execute perfectly in order to succeed (compare with, for instance, Smith in Kansas City or Jimmy Garoppolo in San Fran). Seattle would be lost without him. The Automatic Award, however, goes to Tom Brady. The Patriot led the league in DYAR and ranked second in DVOA. His 70.6 QBR was third best, and his more traditional stats were also great. Pro Football Focus graded him as the top quarterback in the league too. On tape, he stood out for his ability to improve his deep ball at age 40, all the while maintaining his typical touch on short stuff and wizardry in the pocket. [73]Brady was the consensus MVP among major publications. Brad Oremland chose Todd Gurley.
In 2018, wunderkind Patrick Mahomes was an easy choice for the award. He led the highest scoring offense in football, one which became one of the few in history to score on more than half of its drives or average more than three points per possession. Mahomes reached 5000 yards and 50 touchdowns in just 580 pass attempts, and his 13.3 yards per completion figure was a marked difference from what Smith achieved the prior year in the same offense. His 128.4 TAYP+ and 1576 VAL easily led the league, as did his 2039 DYAR. He narrowly led the league in QBR, and he ranked second in DVOA. Pro Football Focus graded him as the second best quarterback in football. He maintained elite efficiency with a high volume of play, and he was the consensus MVP choice among every major source (and probably the minor ones too). The silver goes to Drew Brees, who led the NFL in DVOA and PFF grade. The wise veteran made up for his declining physical skills with sound reads and precise passes to all levels of the field. His deep balls didn’t have the same zip on them they once did, but his touch and timing were as good as ever. He seemed to wear down as the season progressed, but he was a serious MVP contender for much of the season. Rivers was also fantastic.
Aaron Rodgers won his third consensus MVP title in 2020 (and his fourth Automatic Award). He posted the second highest passer rating in history (trailing only himself, nine years prior) and became the only quarterback ever to reach 40 touchdown passes in three separate seasons. His +43 touchdown to interception differential is the second best in history and was higher than the total touchdown passes from runners up Brady and Wilson. Rodgers led the league in TAYP+ and VAL, DVOA and QBR, and PFF grade—his 84.3 QBR is the second highest ever, and his 95.1 PFF grade is the highest combined regular and postseason grade ever given to a quarterback. His play translated to team success, as the Packers fielded the league’s highest scoring offense and held the best record. The runner up is Mahomes, who went 14-1 as a starter, and whose absence was painfully evident. He carried a bigger load than anyone else, and he seemed to play better against defenses expecting the pass. With a completely overmatched line and receivers with Wesson on their gloves, Mahomes gave a herculean effort in the Super Bowl. This time, of course, Hercules labored in vain. Brady, Wilson, and a new and improved Josh Allen were also terrific.
References
| ↑1 | I don’t know much about other sports, but I have been told goalies play a pretty outsized role in winning hockey games. In basketball, I don’t know if there is necessarily a single position that is the most important, but it definitely appears to be the team sport in which the best player can have the largest impact. |
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| ↑2 | When discussing stats, I will refer most often to my own creation, Total Adjusted Yards per Play, and its variants. These include TAYP+, which is similar to Pro Football Reference’s passing index scores. I find three year rolling averages of TAY/P for each season, then determine a weighted standard deviation of the stat, followed by calculating each quarterback’s z-score (i.e., the number of standard deviations above or below average). Last, I multiply that by 15 and add it to 100 to land on a number familiar to most regular readers of this site, as well as users of PFR. Also included is VAL, which is simply a player’s TAY/P in a given season, minus the three year average, multiplied by the number of action plays the quarterback ran. The VAL numbers I mention in this article are adjusted to account for league usage rates for quarterbacks, meaning older quarterbacks will be adjusted up some, while recent ones will be adjusted down some. Once we get to the 1983 season, Football Outsiders expands our selection of metrics to use in our evaluations. I will continue to use my own stats, especially for comparison against older seasons, but I will begin to reference the more advanced DVOA and DYAR. Beginning in the 2006 season, we have access to both ESPN’s Total QBR and Pro Football Focus’s charting stats and player grades. Total QBR is the most advanced stat in the kingdom and does a great job synthesizing all the things a quarterback must do. The whole Charlie Batch thing has earned the metric some major critics, but I think it’s right more than it’s wrong. And PFF is the only publication I know of that charts every play of every game and assigns a grade to performance on each play. I know some scouting services do this, but they don’t publish their information (because why would they). Cris’s boys get a ton of criticism for their evals, but I have yet to see anyone else step up and do a more nuanced job over such a large population of players and volume of plays. Most people simply don’t have the resources to do that. |
| ↑3 | Starr led quarterbacks with a Total Adjusted yards per Play index score (TAYP+) of 124.3. He also led all players in Total Adjusted yards above average (VAL) with 1123. Meredith ranked second in both metrics (116.1 and 1049), while Ryan ranked third (115.1 and 1042. |
| ↑4 | With everyone’s favorite backup and eventual league MVP Earl Morrall going 1-5-1 as a starter. |
| ↑5 | By TAYP+ the top four players in the land were Jurgensen (117.9), Tarkenton (116.4), Gabriel (116.1), and Unitas (115.1). By VAL, the top players were Jurgensen (1804), Unitas (1432), Tarkenton (1409), and Gabriel (1355). |
| ↑6 | Payton averaged 151.5 yards per game |
| ↑7 | In an interesting choice, the NEA actually chose Phil Simms as its MVP, despite the fact that he was fairly pedestrian that season. |
| ↑8 | At first glance, his stats don’t seem to compare well to those of Montana, Kosar, or even Marino—especially if you focus solely on the touchdown column. However, he had a comparable ANY/A and TAY/P, and he trailed only those three in DYAR. His 3-0 lead over Kosar in game-winning drives tips the scales in his favor. |
| ↑9 | While playing quarterback for Buddy Ryan, mind you. |
| ↑10 | Yes, passer rating is an outdated stat. It’s also popular and easy to weave into a narrative. You will manage to keep your head from exploding just this once. |
| ↑11 | The Oilers did feature a good receiving corps, but that can be said of every team that had a top notch passing performance by a quarterback that year. |
| ↑12 | Aaron Rodgers was also incredible, particularly in the postseason. |
| ↑13 | Pro Football Focus graded Manning as the third best quarterback of 2010, behind Romo and Rivers. Brady ranked seventh, trailing Rodgers, Roethlisberger, and Brees. This was highly controversial at the time. |
| ↑14 | Pro Football Focus grade Manning as the top passer, with Brady coming in third, behind Rodgers. Manning and Brady ranked first and second in Total QBR as well. |
| ↑15 | For reference, Lamar Jackson‘s Ravens boasted a 2nd ranked 69% pass block win rate. Jackson’s NGS +/- was 0.8, which is still above average. The Ravens fielded the league’s top rushing attack (in large part due to Jackson) and the 4th ranked defense by DVOA. He ranked 5th in PFF’s WAR (2.29). The Ravens also had top-down organizational buy-in to building around his strengths and embracing analytics principles (such as fourth down aggressiveness, which extended several drives). |
| ↑16 | Glenn Dobbs took the league’s MVP Award, but I don’t think he was close to Graham in either play or value. |
| ↑17 | Texans back Abner Haynes won the award from the UPI and AP after leading the league in touches, rushing yards, and rushing scores. He 1451 scrimmage yards in 14 games. I ultimately felt Kemp contributed more to his team’s success. |
| ↑18 | Tom Flores (110.1) and Butch Songin went one and two in TAYP+. Songin topped the league in VAL with 453. It really wasn’t a great year for passing. |
| ↑19 | When we account for the lack of depth defensively in the AFL, the performance becomes less impressive, but when compared against the other players in the same situation, he left them in his dust. |
| ↑20 | Cookie Gilchrist took MVP honors from the UPI and AP. he led all backs with 1096 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns in 14 games. I see him more as an outstanding player rather than a necessarily valuable player. But we all have our own criteria, and mine isn’t necessarily better or worse than yours. If you don’t like it, make your own list. I don’t mean that sarcastically; I want to see it. I am a listophile with a real problem. |
| ↑21 | Awarding bodies were split in 1963. The UPI went with Lance Alworth, Sporting News chose Clem Daniels, and the AP picked Rote. Bambi was lethal, as always, but I’m not certain he outplayed every other receiver in the league that year—Art Powell balled out in Oakland. Daniels led the league in yards from scrimmage by a decent margin, but a great deal of his yardage came when running out the clock when the Raiders already had the lead. |
| ↑22 | He narrowly trailed Lamonica, Dawson, Davison, and Hadl in efficiency while involved in over 100 action plays more than any of them. |
| ↑23 | The UPI and Sporting News went with Paul Lowe, while the AP chose Kemp. Kemp was an established star who led the Bills to a 9-3-1 record, but this was a very good team with a solid offensive line and terrific defense. The quarterback himself didn’t do anything to merit an MVP award, in my opinion. He threw 10 touchdowns to 18 picks, and his rushing contribution was limited to some successful short yardage plays. Lowe led all players in rushing yards, but he wasn’t a factor in the passing game and didn’t score often. Alworth was the best offensive player, and Hadl was the most valuable, I believe. |
| ↑24 | The Washington D.C. Touchdown Club went with Alworth. |
| ↑25 | Namath had 1192. Hadl had 1188, and Lamonica had 1057. |
| ↑26 | Billy Joe scored on carries of 15 and 32 yards. |
| ↑27 | The prior year, the Chiefs and Raiders tied atop the AFL West and had a tiebreaker playoff game, while the AFL East champion Jets had an extra week to rest. |
| ↑28 | Namath was the runner up in both metrics with 853 and 112.7. |
| ↑29 | The Joe F. Carr Trophy, the only official MVP the NFL has ever award, also went to Dudley. |
| ↑30 | The UPI went with Pat Harder as their MVP selection. |
| ↑31 | The major organizations didn’t pick an MVP that year, but the Washington D.C. Touchdown Club went with Van Buren. |
| ↑32 | Lujack led all quarterbacks with a TAYP+ of 120.3 and VAL of 1527. Thompson (117.5 and 943) and Baugh (117.0 and 1066) were the only players within shouting distance of those numbers. |
| ↑33 | The UPI went with Graham, and the Washington D.C. Touchdown Club chose Lou Groza. |
| ↑34 | The Washington D.C. Touchdown Club agreed. The UPI picked Joe Perry, and Sporting News went with Groza. |
| ↑35 | The Columbus Touchdown Club picked Rick Casares. |
| ↑36 | The voters for the Washington D.C. Touchdown Club chose Unitas. Also, the AP may or may not have also given it to Gino Marchetti. |
| ↑37 | Brown also trailed his teammate Bobby Mitchell in rushing average. |
| ↑38 | Unitas won MVP honors from the UPI and Sporting News. Conerly took the NEA. The two shared the AP honor. |
| ↑39 | Some sources say the AP chose NVB, some say Schmidt, but I don’t see any evidence that the AP even named an award winner of any kind that year. |
| ↑40 | Starr, of course, had the most. The Giants had a better record than the Eagles, but Tittle went 8-1-1, while Conerly went 2-2. |
| ↑41 | Brown won MVP honors from UPI and the Washington D.C. Touchdown Club. He also took the Bert Bell Award for player of the year. The Bert Bell is supposed to be for the player of the year, but it often seems like a mix between an award for the best player and an award for the most valuable player. By that I mean it has often gone to quarterbacks who were pretty clearly not the actual best players in the league, but it has also gone to J.J. Watt and Emmitt Smith. |
| ↑42 | Starr was the next most efficient, with a TAYP+ of 111.7. |
| ↑43 | Remember, 1965 was not 2020. Some running backs mattered then. |
| ↑44 | Leroy Kelly won the Bert Bell Award, and Ray Nitschke took the honor from the Washington D.C. Touchdown Club. |
| ↑45 | That is, a minimum of 224 action plays. |
| ↑46 | Staubach also came off the bench and outplayed Morton in two Cowboys losses. I believe Dallas would have gone 13-1 had he started the full season. |
| ↑47 | Dr. Z named Joe Klecko the player of the year, but I don’t believe the good doctor actually meant Klecko was the league’s most valuable player. |
| ↑48 | The NEA and PFWA were smart enough to pick Fouts, and Football Digest and the Maxwell Club had to good sense to go with Theismann. |
| ↑49 | Dr. Z elected Dwight Clark as his player of the year. The same thing can be said about him that was said about Klecko. |
| ↑50 | Dr. Z went with Eric Dickerson this time. |
| ↑51 | If I weighted postseason performance in a championship leverage style, Montana would blow away everyone else. He was marvelous in the playoffs. |
| ↑52 | Most major publications went with Young. The lone dissent came from the NEA, who chose Emmitt Smith. |
| ↑53 | Aikman led the league in DVOA, followed by Old Man Montana, and then Young. Elway ranked first in DYAR, with Young in second. |
| ↑54 | Of course I mean Jerry Rice. I did not give Rice the World Award for most outstanding player that year, but he was the runner up. Dr. Z did name the receiver his player of the year. |
| ↑55 | Favre, Marino, and Bledsoe. |
| ↑56 | Aikman had the second best DVOA at 25.7%, while Marino took silver in the DYAR race with 1349. |
| ↑57 | Young took consensus honors among the major sources, but Football Digest selected Barry Sanders. |
| ↑58 | People focus on the low completion rate, but his VAL was 110, and his VAL/P was +3.05, which would have led the league by a huge margin if he achieved that mark over a full season. |
| ↑59 | Dr. Z went with Marshall Faulk as his player of the year. |
| ↑60 | By accurate, I mean the placement of the ball, not his measured completion rate. While Warner did manage the top completion rate in the league, he did so on some incredibly difficult passes. His yards per completion of 13.4 ranked third in the league. |
| ↑61 | Dr. Z chose Michael Strahan as his player of the year, but this was not a pick for MVP. |
| ↑62 | Pennington managed to play 10 or more games four times in his career. He led his teams to the postseason in each of those years. |
| ↑63 | Dr. Z chose Priest Holmes as his player of the year. |
| ↑64 | Brad Oremland also chose Barber. |
| ↑65 | Dr. Z went with feel-good story of the year, Drew Brees. |
| ↑66 | His 86.4 was 17.8 points higher than Brady’s 68.6. |
| ↑67 | And second best DVOA, after Manning’s 2004. |
| ↑68 | Brad Oremland chose Brian Westbrook. |
| ↑69 | Manning won MVP honors from the AP, PFWA, and Sporting News. Rivers earned the PFF honor. Brees earned the Bert Bell Award, as well as MVP honors from Brad Oremland. |
| ↑70 | Nick Foles and Josh McCown managed to best him in TAYP+, but he threw over one hundred passes more than the two of them combined. |
| ↑71 | Rodgers was the consensus MVP, but J.J. Watt took the Bert Bell Award, the Stephenson Award from PFF, and the MVP nod from Brad Oremland. |
| ↑72 | He won the Bert Bell Award for player of the year, though I remind you again that the Maxwell Club is based in Philadelphia. |
| ↑73 | Brady was the consensus MVP among major publications. Brad Oremland chose Todd Gurley. |