Average margins in Wins and Losses

by Chase Stuart on June 30, 2014

Okay, some fun trivia to kick off the week. Do you know which team last year had the worst points differential in games they lost? I’ll put the answer in spoiler tags.

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The New York Jets, despite going 8-8, had the worst performance in losses. New York’s average margin of defeat was 18.75 points in games they lost.

Where does that rank historically? I thought it would be fun to look at the teams since 1950 with the worst average margin of defeat looking exclusively at performance in losses. This was a bit of a tricky one, but Scott Kacsmar was able to guess it on twitter. The answer?

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The 1976 Raiders won the Super Bowl and went 13-1. But that one loss was a doozy, a 48-17 thrashing at the hands of the Patriots. Oakland exacted revenge on New England in the playoffs, although it was not without controversy.

The table below shows the 100 teams with the worst average points differential in losses since 1950. As always, the tables in this post are fully sortable and searchable. For viewing purposes, I’m displaying only the top 20, but you can change that in the dropdown box on the left.

Rk	Year	Tm	# Losses	Avg Mar in Losses
1	1976	OAK	1	-31
2	1961	SDG	2	-30.5
3	1954	WAS	9	-27.6
4	1960	CHI	6	-27.2
5	1965	CLE	3	-27
6	1989	PIT	7	-24.7
7	1950	BAL	11	-24.5
8	1991	DET	4	-24
9	1967	BAL	1	-24
10	1972	NWE	11	-23.9
11	1970	DAL	4	-23.8
12	1997	SFO	3	-23.7
13	1963	NYJ	8	-23.6
14	1966	PHI	5	-23.4
15	1966	ATL	11	-23.4
16	1976	NYJ	11	-23.3
17	1975	CHI	10	-23.2
18	1967	MIA	10	-23.1
19	1960	LAC	4	-22.8
20	1986	NYJ	6	-22.7
21	1969	CLE	3	-22.7
22	1958	SFO	6	-22.7
23	1952	DTX	11	-22.6
24	1968	BOS	10	-22.5
25	1950	NYY	5	-22.4
26	2000	CLE	13	-22
27	1962	NYT	9	-22
28	1976	CLE	5	-21.8
29	1973	NOR	9	-21.8
30	1982	ATL	4	-21.8
31	1972	CLE	4	-21.8
32	2004	PHI	3	-21.7
33	1961	NYT	7	-21.6
34	1989	HOU	7	-21.4
35	1951	WAS	7	-21.3
36	1967	PHI	7	-21.1
37	1968	DEN	9	-21.1
38	1961	DAL	9	-21.1
39	1950	GNB	9	-21.1
40	2010	SEA	9	-21
41	1983	STL	7	-21
42	1965	NYG	7	-21
43	1962	PIT	5	-21
44	1981	STL	9	-20.9
45	1985	WAS	6	-20.8
46	1970	MIA	4	-20.8
47	1973	SDG	11	-20.7
48	1966	DEN	10	-20.7
49	1967	ATL	12	-20.7
50	1987	ATL	12	-20.6
51	1976	TAM	14	-20.5
52	2007	DET	9	-20.4
53	1953	BAL	9	-20.4
54	1971	PHI	7	-20.4
55	2012	TEN	10	-20.4
56	1961	OAK	12	-20.3
57	1959	WAS	9	-20.3
58	2011	KAN	9	-20.2
59	1992	IND	7	-20.1
60	2003	ARI	12	-20.1
61	1966	NYG	12	-20.1
62	1965	SDG	2	-20
63	1971	NWE	8	-19.9
64	1981	BAL	14	-19.8
65	1968	MIA	8	-19.6
66	2012	IND	5	-19.6
67	1956	CHI	2	-19.5
68	1962	CHI	5	-19.4
69	1973	HOU	13	-19.4
70	1961	DEN	11	-19.4
71	1975	NYJ	11	-19.3
72	1967	SDG	5	-19.2
73	1958	GNB	10	-19.2
74	1950	CRD	7	-19.1
75	1953	GNB	9	-19.1
76	1978	BAL	11	-19.1
77	1970	BOS	12	-19.1
78	1990	CLE	13	-19.1
79	2004	ATL	5	-19
80	1993	RAM	11	-19
81	1985	RAI	4	-19
82	1972	PHI	11	-19
83	1967	SFO	7	-19
84	1961	WAS	12	-19
85	2011	TAM	12	-18.9
86	1964	DEN	11	-18.9
87	1954	CRD	10	-18.9
88	2005	MIN	7	-18.9
89	2013	NYJ	8	-18.8
90	2012	HOU	4	-18.8
91	1968	ATL	12	-18.8
92	2000	ARI	13	-18.7
93	2009	TEN	8	-18.6
94	1996	STL	10	-18.6
95	1973	ATL	5	-18.6
96	2009	SEA	11	-18.5
97	2013	JAX	12	-18.5
98	2009	IND	2	-18.5
99	2009	NYG	8	-18.5
100	1970	BAL	2	-18.5

What about the reverse — the teams with the best points differential in losses (the ’72 Dolphins and ’07 Patriots exempted)? You might be surprised to learn that for 2013, the answer is the Patriots. Despite a sometimes rocky season, New England lost only four games, and those came by a 3, 4, 4, and 7 points. The Seahawks, with losses of 2, 6, and 7 points, come in just behind New England. What about the team with the best average margin in losses? Well, Scott got this one, too, and it’s another team that made it to the Super Bowl.

Rk	Year	Tm	# Losses	Avg Mar in Losses
1	1983	WAS	2	-1
2	1973	RAM	2	-1.5
3	1974	OAK	2	-2
4	1966	GNB	2	-2
5	2000	TEN	3	-2.3
6	1991	WAS	2	-2.5
7	1989	SFO	2	-2.5
8	1976	MIN	2	-2.5
9	1962	DET	3	-2.7
10	1953	RAM	3	-2.7
11	2012	NWE	4	-2.8
12	1987	WAS	4	-2.8
13	2006	SDG	2	-3
14	1998	MIN	1	-3
15	1995	SFO	5	-3
16	1984	SFO	1	-3
17	1967	RAM	1	-3
18	1953	SFO	3	-3
19	1992	NOR	4	-3.3
20	2010	GNB	6	-3.3
21	1985	NYG	6	-3.3
22	1960	CLE	3	-3.3
23	1980	ATL	4	-3.5
24	1999	MIN	6	-3.7
25	1972	PIT	3	-3.7
26	1971	BAL	4	-3.8
27	2010	BAL	4	-4
28	2009	PIT	7	-4
29	2007	IND	3	-4
30	2001	OAK	6	-4
31	2000	OAK	4	-4
32	1989	DEN	5	-4
33	1986	NYG	2	-4
34	1977	RAM	4	-4
35	1975	MIN	2	-4
36	1969	MIN	2	-4
37	1969	KAN	3	-4
38	1967	GNB	4	-4
39	2008	SDG	8	-4.3
40	1999	OAK	8	-4.3
41	1993	DEN	7	-4.3
42	1991	SFO	6	-4.3
43	1990	PHI	6	-4.3
44	1966	DAL	3	-4.3
45	2013	NWE	4	-4.5
46	1992	HOU	6	-4.5
47	1982	MIA	2	-4.5
48	1982	SFO	6	-4.5
49	1974	DAL	6	-4.5
50	1999	STL	3	-4.7
51	1958	BAL	3	-4.7
52	1976	PIT	4	-4.8
53	2012	SEA	5	-4.8
54	1982	NYG	5	-4.8
55	1981	ATL	9	-4.9
56	2013	SEA	3	-5
57	2011	GNB	1	-5
58	2011	SFO	3	-5
59	2011	NWE	3	-5
60	2004	SDG	4	-5
61	2002	NOR	7	-5
62	2001	STL	2	-5
63	1997	GNB	3	-5
64	1994	DAL	4	-5
65	1978	PIT	2	-5
66	1964	GNB	5	-5
67	1961	NYG	3	-5
68	1959	BAL	3	-5
69	1954	DET	2	-5
70	1950	CLE	2	-5
71	1993	SFO	6	-5.2
72	1984	RAI	5	-5.2
73	1995	IND	7	-5.3
74	1984	STL	7	-5.3
75	2013	DEN	3	-5.3
76	1996	OAK	9	-5.3
77	1982	DAL	3	-5.3
78	1982	PHI	6	-5.3
79	1974	MIA	3	-5.3
80	2012	PIT	8	-5.4
81	1995	GNB	5	-5.4
82	2002	CLE	7	-5.4
83	2000	IND	6	-5.5
84	1988	PHI	6	-5.5
85	1980	PHI	4	-5.5
86	1974	MIN	4	-5.5
87	1974	WAS	4	-5.5
88	1964	BUF	2	-5.5
89	1951	NYG	2	-5.5
90	2001	SDG	11	-5.5
91	2009	BAL	7	-5.6
92	1999	DAL	8	-5.6
93	2000	TAM	6	-5.7
94	1994	MIA	6	-5.7
95	1987	NOR	3	-5.7
96	1976	BAL	3	-5.7
97	1993	PHO	9	-5.8
98	2013	CIN	5	-5.8
99	2009	DAL	5	-5.8
100	2002	JAX	10	-5.8

You might notice #20 on the list. The 2010 Packers had six losses but still cracked the top 20: of course, Green Bay wound up winning the Super Bowl that year. That 2010 team was a very good one, which is why it irks me when analysts lump the ’10 Packers in with say, the ’07 Giants, ’11 Giants, and ’12 Ravens as a sign that anything can happen in the playoffs. Sure, all four of those teams lost six or seven games, but Green Bay may have been the greatest 10-6 team in regular season history. The table above augments that argument.

Okay, what about the teams with the biggest margin of victory in wins? This one tripped up a lot of folks on twitter. The 2007 Patriots were a very common answer, but New England doesn’t even crack the top 60 of this list. In fact, a ton of the top teams come from the ’50s and ’60s, which is somewhat of a surprise (at least, to me). The 1963 Chiefs had an insane +36.3 average margin of victory in their five wins… and went 5-7.

Rk	Year	Tm	# Wins	Avg Mar in Wins
1	1963	KAN	5	36.8
2	1969	CHI	1	31
3	1966	HOU	3	31
4	1961	HOU	10	29.6
5	1953	PHI	7	27.1
6	1950	PHI	6	26
7	1963	DET	5	25.6
8	1954	CLE	9	24.9
9	1959	CRD	2	24.5
10	1989	CIN	8	24.4
11	1956	RAM	4	24
12	1951	RAM	8	23.1
13	1959	RAM	2	23
14	1950	RAM	9	23
15	1999	STL	13	22.9
16	1967	DET	5	22.8
17	1976	PIT	10	22.3
18	1981	NWE	2	22
19	1967	KAN	9	22
20	1958	CRD	2	22
21	1966	DAL	10	21.9
22	1968	DAL	12	21.8
23	1962	PHI	3	21.7
24	1952	DET	9	21.7
25	1967	BOS	3	21.7
26	1961	SFO	7	21.6
27	1973	DET	6	21.5
28	1962	GNB	13	21.5
29	1954	NYG	7	21.4
30	1958	BAL	9	21.3
31	1996	GNB	13	21.3
32	1973	DAL	10	21.3
33	1969	MIN	12	21.2
34	1990	SDG	6	21.2
35	1964	KAN	7	21
36	2002	CIN	2	21
37	1993	SFO	10	20.9
38	1970	STL	8	20.9
39	1960	BAL	6	20.8
40	1973	ATL	9	20.8
41	1971	CIN	4	20.8
42	1988	GNB	4	20.8
43	1968	DET	4	20.8
44	1988	MIN	11	20.7
45	1968	BAL	13	20.6
46	1966	CLE	9	20.6
47	1965	CHI	9	20.6
48	1968	OAK	12	20.3
49	2008	PHI	9	20.2
50	1982	NYJ	6	20.2
51	2003	SFO	7	20.1
52	1968	HOU	7	20.1
53	1972	SFO	8	20.1
54	1962	OAK	1	20
55	1950	DET	6	20
56	1967	BAL	11	20
57	1950	BAL	1	20
58	1986	MIN	9	19.9
59	1961	SDG	12	19.8
60	1962	DAL	5	19.8
61	2012	NWE	12	19.8
62	1963	NYG	11	19.7
63	2007	NWE	16	19.7
64	1976	DEN	9	19.7
65	1960	DTX	8	19.6
66	1994	SFO	13	19.6
67	2010	SDG	9	19.6
68	1978	CIN	4	19.5
69	1955	CRD	4	19.5
70	1969	STL	4	19.5
71	1995	SFO	11	19.5
72	2004	BUF	9	19.4
73	1960	CLE	8	19.4
74	1960	GNB	8	19.4
75	1960	BUF	5	19.2
76	1964	BAL	12	19.2
77	2000	JAX	7	19.1
78	1980	CHI	7	19.1
79	1967	OAK	13	19.1
80	1991	WAS	14	19
81	1976	BUF	2	19
82	1975	PIT	12	18.9
83	1966	KAN	11	18.9
84	2012	NYG	9	18.9
85	2006	JAX	8	18.9
86	1952	SFO	7	18.9
87	1971	BAL	10	18.8
88	1981	PHI	10	18.8
89	1987	RAI	5	18.8
90	2009	SEA	5	18.8
91	2009	BAL	9	18.8
92	1990	PIT	9	18.8
93	1976	RAM	10	18.7
94	1967	RAM	11	18.6
95	1966	RAM	8	18.6
96	1957	WAS	5	18.6
97	1985	IND	5	18.6
98	1955	PHI	4	18.5
99	1970	DET	10	18.5
100	1960	STL	6	18.5

If you limit things to post-merger teams, the top three teams are he ’89 Bengals (nice job, Arif Hasan!), the ’99 Rams, and the ’76 Steelers. All three teams have come up in old PFR/Football Perspective posts. The ’89 Bengals were coached by Sam Wyche at a time when the coaches in the AFC Central hated each other. The Bengals won a game against the Steelers 41-10 and a game aginst the Oilers 61-7. Cincinnati also beat the Bucs 56-23 and the Lions 42-7. But the team went just 8-8, and missed the playoffs.

The ’99 Rams were the first edition of the Greatest Show on Turf, of course. St. Louis had an average points differential of 17.8 PPG in all games, so removing losses unsurprisingly brings the team up to #2 on this list among seasons since the merger. And the ’76 Steelers, who came up just a week ago, come in at #3. The top team from last year was the Broncos, but they don’t even crack the top 150.

Finally, let’s close with a look at the teams with the lowest average margin in wins (the ’60 Cowboys, ’76 Bucs, ’82 Colts, and ’08 Lions, excluded, of course). This is, I think, the most boring of our four lists. But hey, we need to be complete. The top of the list is populated by teams with 1 or 2 wins, although the 2012 Eagles sneak in there. That team was awfully close to going 0-16.

Rk	Year	Tm	# Wins	Avg Mar in Wins
1	2000	SDG	1	1
2	1980	NOR	1	1
3	1991	IND	1	1
4	1972	PHI	2	1
5	1967	ATL	1	1
6	2012	PHI	4	1.5
7	1981	BAL	2	1.5
8	1982	HOU	1	2
9	1968	BUF	1	2
10	1990	NWE	1	2
11	1998	SDG	5	2.6
12	2009	OAK	5	2.8
13	1982	TAM	5	3
14	1994	CIN	3	3
15	1982	DEN	2	3
16	2001	BUF	3	3
17	2003	HOU	5	3
18	1989	ATL	3	3
19	2004	SFO	2	3
20	1969	PIT	1	3
21	1998	PHI	3	3
22	1951	NYY	1	3
23	1999	CLE	2	3
24	1970	NOR	2	3
25	2009	DET	2	3
26	1968	ATL	2	3
27	1958	GNB	1	3
28	1966	NYG	1	3
29	1972	NWE	3	3
30	1953	CHI	3	3.3
31	2002	DET	3	3.3
32	2000	ARI	3	3.3
33	1982	RAM	2	3.5
34	1984	DET	4	3.5
35	1992	SEA	2	3.5
36	2003	ARI	4	3.5
37	1977	NYJ	3	3.7
38	1984	MIN	3	3.7
39	1954	BAL	3	3.7
40	2002	CHI	4	3.8
41	2005	SFO	4	3.8
42	2000	CHI	5	3.8
43	2007	SFO	5	3.8
44	2010	WAS	6	3.8
45	2011	CLE	4	4
46	1997	PHI	6	4
47	1983	PHI	5	4
48	2001	DET	2	4
49	1995	JAX	4	4
50	1995	ARI	4	4
51	1998	CIN	3	4
52	1973	HOU	1	4
53	1952	DTX	1	4
54	1989	TAM	5	4.2
55	2002	DAL	5	4.2
56	1988	KAN	4	4.3
57	2011	ARI	8	4.3
58	2006	CLE	4	4.3
59	1994	NYG	9	4.3
60	2004	OAK	5	4.4
61	1963	RAM	5	4.4
62	1983	BAL	7	4.4
63	1987	CIN	4	4.5
64	1978	HOU	10	4.5
65	2013	HOU	2	4.5
66	2012	KAN	2	4.5
67	1973	PHI	5	4.6
68	1991	NWE	6	4.7
69	1991	RAM	3	4.7
70	1990	CLE	3	4.7
71	1979	MIN	7	4.7
72	2013	ATL	4	4.8
73	1997	ARI	4	4.8
74	2011	DEN	8	4.9
75	1980	NYJ	4	5
76	1988	TAM	5	5
77	1977	GNB	4	5
78	1993	RAI	10	5
79	1998	ARI	9	5
80	2012	JAX	2	5
81	1972	STL	4	5
82	1967	DEN	3	5
83	2010	CAR	2	5
84	1970	GNB	6	5
85	1984	HOU	3	5
86	1986	TAM	2	5
87	2013	JAX	4	5
88	1964	DEN	2	5
89	2011	TAM	4	5
90	2008	WAS	8	5.1
91	1999	CHI	6	5.2
92	1982	STL	5	5.2
93	2006	TAM	4	5.3
94	1980	NYG	4	5.3
95	1974	DET	7	5.3
96	1989	GNB	10	5.3
97	1988	DAL	3	5.3
98	1953	BAL	3	5.3
99	1987	ATL	3	5.3
100	1980	TAM	5	5.4

The team in 2013 with the lowest average margin of victory in wins was the Texans. Not only did Houston win just two games, but they came by just three and six points, with the latter victory coming in overtime.

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