While the state of the Steelers’ receiving corps isn’t as shaky as say, that of the New England Patriots, it could certainly be called an area of potential concern for Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh offense going into 2013. One of the biggest moves on the first day of free agency involved Mike Wallace departing for Miami; meanwhile, Heath Miller’s injury status — while more encouraging than previously thought — will cost him several games, and probably some effectiveness when he does eventually return. All of this comes on the heels of losing stealth HoFer Hines Ward (albeit an older, drastically less effective version) to retirement after the 2011 season.

For Roethlisberger, this downturn in the quality of his receivers is a pretty new phenomenon. In fact, by one measure of career receiving-corps talent (which I’ll explain below), Big Ben has been blessed with the fourth-most gifted receiving group among current starting quarterbacks with more than two years of experience (behind only Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, and Tony Romo). In fact, Roethlisberger’s 16th-ranked receiving corps in 2012 was by far the least talented group of pass catchers he’s ever had to throw to.

How do you begin to measure the quality of a quarterback’s receiving corps, you ask? Well, pretty much any method is going to fraught with circular logic, especially if a quarterback consistently has the same receivers over several years. His successes are theirs, and vice-versa. However, here’s one stab at shedding at least some light on the issue.

For each team since the NFL-AFL merger, I:

• Gathered all players with at least 1 catch for the team in the season.
• Computed their True Receiving Yards in that season; I then determined what percentage of the team’s True Receiving Yards was accumulated by which receiver in each year. For example, Hines Ward had 1,029 TRY in 2009, which represented 25.9% of the 3,979 True Receiving Yards accumulated by all Steelers that year
• Figured out the most TRY they ever had in a season, a number I’m calling each player’s peak TRY; for Ward, his peak TRY is equal to 1,279.
• Calculated a weighted average (based on the percentage of team TRY gained by each receiver) of the receivers’ peak TRY (weighted by their TRY during the season in question).

(I also threw out all teams that had a receiver who debuted before 1970, since I don’t know what the real peak TRY of any pre-merger receiver was. I should eventually calculate TRY for pre-merger seasons, of course — thank you Chase & Don Maynard.)

As an example, here are the 2009 Steelers, the most talented corps of receivers Roethlisberger has had in his career:

receiver	age	pos	rec	rec_yds	rec_td	TRY	peak_TRY	%_of_TRY	tm_wgtd_avg
Hines Ward	33	WR	95	1,167	6	1,029	1,279	25.9	942.7
Santonio Holmes	25	WR	79	1,248	5	1,018	1,018	25.6	942.7
Heath Miller	27	TE	76	789	6	753	753	18.9	942.7
Mike Wallace	23	WR	39	756	6	626	1,076	15.7	942.7
Rashard Mendenhall	22	RB	25	261	1	237	237	6.0	942.7
Mewelde Moore	27	RB	21	153	2	174	439	4.4	942.7
Willie Parker	29	RB	6	64	1	67	270	1.7	942.7
Matt Spaeth	26	TE	5	25	1	41	136	1.0	942.7
Tyler Grisham	22	WR	1	14	0	11	11	0.3	942.7
David Johnson	22	TE	2	9	0	11	98	0.3	942.7
Stefan Logan	28	RB	1	5	0	6	29	0.2	942.7
Limas Sweed	25	WR	1	5	0	6	58	0.2	942.7

That weighted average of 942.7 can be interpreted as meaning “the average TRY for a 2009 Steelers receiver was gained by a player whose peak TRY was 942.7.” For the Steelers in ’09, it is based on the formula (1279 * .258) + (1018 * .256) + (753 * .189) + (1076 * .157)…. (58 * .002).

One advantage of this system is that it measures the potential ability inherent in each receiver (I think back to that old scouting saying: “if a guy does it once, it’s in there”). The weighting adjustment also kinda-sorta eliminates the need for any age adjustment. There are many issues with this system — including the facts that one peak season could just be a fluke (though this could be solved in subsequent versions by using a multi-year peak TRY total) and that active teams are short-changed by young receivers who haven’t had a chance to put up peak seasons yet. In fact, this measure should only really be used for quarterbacks who not only are retired themselves, but who only threw to receivers who are also all retired.

But that would cut down our sample (and fun!) pretty significantly, so we’re just going to press on anyway. Here are the 100 most talented receiving groups in the sample, along with their top 5 targets by TRY. As always, the table is completely searchable and sortable.

rank	team	wtAvg	rec1	TRY	pkTRY	rec2	TRY	pkTRY	rec3	TRY	pkTRY	rec4	TRY	pkTRY	rec5	TRY	pkTRY
1.	1996 det	1,185	Moore	1,232	1,466	Perriman	977	1,255	Morton	681	990	Sanders	164	488	Metzelaars	142	681
2.	1995 det	1,166	Moore	1,466	1,466	Perriman	1,255	1,255	Morton	551	990	Sanders	374	488	Sloan	164	535
3.	2004 ram	1,156	Holt	1,173	1,502	Bruce	1,067	1,457	McDonald	425	823	Curtis	357	922	Faulk	333	981
4.	1999 min	1,135	Moss	1,249	1,605	Carter	1,199	1,277	Reed	555	1,110	Glover	299	503	Smith	176	380
5.	2004 clt	1,128	Harrison	1,140	1,558	Wayne	1,135	1,328	Stokley	1,000	1,000	James	456	617	Clark	401	1,031
6.	2003 ram	1,123	Holt	1,502	1,502	Bruce	849	1,457	Looker	471	471	Faulk	319	981	Manumaleuna	252	252
7.	2000 ram	1,116	Holt	1,283	1,502	Bruce	1,237	1,457	Faulk	827	981	Hakim	640	640	Proehl	401	866
8.	2008 car	1,116	Smith	1,349	1,582	Muhammad	941	1,321	King	223	416	Rosario	223	307	Williams	189	308
9.	1986 sfo	1,115	Rice	1,388	1,522	Clark	687	1,372	Craig	621	977	Francis	441	765	Cribbs	314	617
10.	2007 nwe	1,110	Moss	1,415	1,605	Welker	1,098	1,280	Stallworth	572	876	Gaffney	422	759	Watson	399	718
11.	2002 clt	1,104	Harrison	1,558	1,558	Wayne	611	1,328	Pollard	477	694	Ismail	435	952	James	398	617
12.	2005 clt	1,083	Harrison	1,154	1,558	Wayne	1,009	1,328	Stokley	494	1,000	Clark	484	1,031	James	371	617
13.	1989 was	1,078	Clark	1,078	1,347	Monk	1,061	1,297	Sanders	967	1,076	Byner	459	579	Warren	157	528
14.	1991 was	1,076	Clark	1,347	1,347	Monk	1,115	1,297	Sanders	645	1,076	Byner	341	579	Orr	236	363
15.	2006 ram	1,069	Holt	1,084	1,502	Bruce	894	1,457	Jackson	770	770	Curtis	444	922	Klopfenstein	202	202
16.	2007 ram	1,069	Holt	1,027	1,502	Bruce	623	1,457	McMichael	392	706	Bennett	344	1,070	Jackson	275	770
17.	2003 car	1,061	Smith	1,156	1,582	Muhammad	799	1,321	Proehl	413	866	Foster	258	383	Mangum	194	334
18.	2006 clt	1,059	Harrison	1,285	1,558	Wayne	1,186	1,328	Clark	369	1,031	Utecht	347	347	Addai	337	374
19.	2002 ram	1,058	Holt	1,026	1,502	Bruce	899	1,457	Faulk	546	981	Proehl	425	866	Conwell	351	427
20.	2001 ram	1,058	Holt	1,163	1,502	Bruce	943	1,457	Faulk	829	981	Proehl	526	866	Conwell	427	427
21.	2005 ram	1,056	Holt	1,186	1,502	Curtis	717	922	Bruce	449	1,457	McDonald	442	823	Jackson	338	770
22.	1994 det	1,056	Moore	1,167	1,466	Perriman	746	1,255	Matthews	375	497	Sanders	348	488	Holman	165	726
23.	1998 den	1,054	Smith	1,163	1,375	McCaffrey	1,032	1,217	Sharpe	845	1,038	Davis	251	364	Green	193	739
24.	1976 clt	1,053	Carr	1,460	1,460	Doughty	876	876	Mitchell	864	1,004	Chester	611	851	McCauley	526	752
25.	1982 rai	1,050	Branch	944	1,641	Christensen	938	1,205	Allen	763	763	Barnwell	589	701	Muhammad	149	647
26.	2000 min	1,049	Moss	1,371	1,605	Carter	1,250	1,277	Smith	380	380	McWilliams	226	300	Hatchette	200	205
27.	2008 nwe	1,047	Welker	1,067	1,280	Moss	943	1,605	Faulk	501	501	Gaffney	418	759	Watson	215	718
28.	2001 rai	1,046	Brown	1,108	1,267	Rice	1,067	1,522	Garner	602	839	Williams	322	322	Porter	194	872
29.	2000 sfo	1,043	Owens	1,325	1,412	Rice	797	1,522	Garner	632	839	Stokes	443	768	Clark	345	345
30.	1985 sfo	1,039	Craig	977	977	Rice	754	1,522	Clark	719	1,372	Francis	464	765	Solomon	247	908
31.	2001 min	1,033	Moss	1,114	1,605	Carter	819	1,277	Chamberlain	611	611	Reed	280	1,110	Bennett	236	328
32.	1997 den	1,031	Smith	1,145	1,375	Sharpe	988	1,038	McCaffrey	631	1,217	Davis	321	364	Green	243	739
33.	2003 clt	1,030	Harrison	1,207	1,558	Wayne	819	1,328	Pollard	498	694	Walters	432	432	James	340	617
34.	1989 sfo	1,029	Rice	1,424	1,522	Taylor	1,006	1,006	Rathman	638	638	Jones	497	730	Craig	471	977
35.	1998 min	1,024	Moss	1,260	1,605	Carter	1,035	1,277	Glover	503	503	Reed	457	1,110	Smith	297	380
36.	2011 nwe	1,022	Welker	1,280	1,280	Gronkowski	1,149	1,149	Hernandez	784	784	Branch	574	910	Johnson	201	1,318
37.	1999 ram	1,022	Bruce	1,110	1,457	Faulk	981	981	Holt	724	1,502	Hakim	630	640	Proehl	319	866
38.	1980 rai	1,021	Chandler	826	1,216	Branch	817	1,641	Chester	393	851	van Eeghen	271	524	Casper	268	1,094
39.	1990 was	1,021	Clark	1,062	1,347	Monk	780	1,297	Sanders	688	1,076	Byner	293	579	Bryant	257	549
40.	2001 jax	1,015	Smith	1,270	1,438	McCardell	1,028	1,096	Brady	368	674	Dawkins	203	882	Joseph	190	190
41.	1985 was	1,015	Monk	1,079	1,297	Clark	869	1,347	Didier	450	586	Griffin	295	295	Warren	162	528
42.	1994 atl	1,014	Mathis	1,202	1,202	Rison	938	1,213	Emanuel	544	977	Sanders	542	1,076	Heyward	292	325
43.	2009 nwe	1,008	Welker	1,170	1,280	Moss	1,111	1,605	Watson	372	718	Edelman	323	323	Faulk	290	501
44.	1986 was	1,006	Clark	1,105	1,347	Monk	942	1,297	Didier	586	586	Bryant	451	549	Sanders	247	1,076
45.	1993 gnb	1,005	Sharpe	1,322	1,475	Harris	575	653	Bennett	497	592	Clayton	355	1,281	West	243	367
46.	2006 dal	1,003	Owens	1,182	1,412	Glenn	961	1,005	Witten	693	1,068	Crayton	492	658	Barber	222	431
47.	1990 sfo	1,003	Rice	1,389	1,522	Taylor	695	1,006	Jones	692	730	Rathman	348	638	Sherrard	239	838
48.	1979 nor	1,002	Chandler	1,146	1,558	Childs	909	916	Galbreath	601	749	Harris	424	980	Muncie	384	384
49.	2002 rai	1,002	Rice	1,030	1,522	Garner	839	839	Brown	782	1,267	Porter	639	872	Jolley	346	346
50.	1996 jax	996	Smith	1,087	1,438	McCardell	975	1,096	Mitchell	516	516	Jackson	429	930	Rison	403	1,213
51.	2000 den	994	Smith	1,375	1,375	McCaffrey	1,217	1,217	Carswell	486	486	Clark	325	618	Chamberlain	251	611
52.	1998 sfo	987	Rice	1,056	1,522	Owens	1,035	1,412	Stokes	752	768	Hearst	465	465	Smith	297	439
53.	2005 car	987	Smith	1,582	1,582	Proehl	441	866	Foster	383	383	Colbert	305	657	Mangum	244	334
54.	1999 jax	986	Smith	1,438	1,438	McCardell	850	1,096	Brady	324	674	Jones	244	244	Barlow	174	174
55.	1992 det	982	Moore	940	1,466	Perriman	892	1,255	Green	615	739	Sanders	282	488	Campbell	155	252
56.	1983 rai	982	Christensen	1,205	1,205	Branch	613	1,641	Allen	600	763	Barnwell	438	701	Williams	241	804
57.	1978 min	982	Rashad	874	1,131	Young	864	864	White	823	1,172	Tucker	538	1,109	Foreman	514	1,023
58.	2010 rav	981	Boldin	787	1,279	Mason	757	1,271	Heap	546	829	Rice	541	673	Houshmandzadeh	369	1,139
59.	1993 sfo	980	Rice	1,475	1,522	Taylor	849	1,006	Jones	730	730	Logan	343	343	Watters	322	719
60.	1992 atl	978	Rison	1,159	1,213	Pritchard	843	843	Haynes	802	1,049	Hill	632	1,222	Jones	147	401
61.	2001 clt	978	Harrison	1,449	1,558	Pollard	694	694	Dilger	320	606	Wilkins	307	531	Pathon	300	585
62.	1977 nyj	972	Walker	957	1,294	Gaines	750	750	Barkum	687	1,107	Harper	328	621	Caster	270	1,200
63.	1992 sfo	970	Rice	1,252	1,522	Jones	641	730	Sherrard	548	838	Watters	454	719	Rathman	442	638
64.	1996 sfo	969	Rice	1,195	1,522	Owens	474	1,412	Kirby	440	806	Jones	375	730	Popson	337	354
65.	1992 was	969	Clark	919	1,347	Sanders	705	1,076	Monk	645	1,297	Byner	382	579	Orr	363	363
66.	1994 sfo	968	Rice	1,450	1,522	Watters	719	719	Jones	685	730	Taylor	523	1,006	Singleton	275	275
67.	2003 min	967	Moss	1,605	1,605	Williams	654	654	Campbell	462	462	Kleinsasser	452	452	Burleson	407	898
68.	1988 was	961	Sanders	1,076	1,076	Monk	863	1,297	Clark	815	1,347	Bryant	465	549	McEwen	269	418
69.	1997 det	959	Moore	1,239	1,466	Morton	990	990	Sanders	333	488	Sloan	257	535	Vardell	187	195
70.	1995 sfo	958	Rice	1,522	1,522	Loville	639	639	Jones	527	730	Stokes	434	768	Floyd	333	366
71.	2002 pit	956	Ward	1,279	1,279	Burress	1,114	1,114	Randle El	459	644	Zereoue	331	331	Mathis	224	1,202
72.	2000 jax	955	Smith	1,111	1,438	McCardell	1,080	1,096	Brady	674	674	Taylor	280	467	Whitted	159	272
73.	1998 buf	954	Moulds	1,254	1,254	Reed	806	1,250	Williams	371	535	Riemersma	355	552	Thomas	246	705
74.	1991 min	953	Carter	960	1,277	Jordan	650	795	Carter	613	1,089	Jones	381	785	Walker	249	759
75.	2002 car	951	Smith	776	1,582	Muhammad	774	1,321	Walls	269	810	Hoover	201	201	Smith	172	288
76.	2003 rai	950	Rice	776	1,522	Brown	550	1,267	Garner	410	839	Porter	330	872	Jolley	269	346
77.	1996 min	950	Carter	1,124	1,277	Reed	1,110	1,110	Lee	446	755	Ismail	318	952	Evans	149	249
78.	2002 den	950	Smith	932	1,375	McCaffrey	764	1,217	Sharpe	623	1,038	Lelie	439	928	Portis	338	378
79.	1979 min	948	Rashad	1,131	1,131	White	655	1,172	Young	625	864	Tucker	250	1,109	Brown	229	638
80.	1991 dal	948	Irvin	1,405	1,497	Novacek	680	748	Smith	342	487	Harper	292	778	Johnston	264	435
81.	1999 sfo	947	Rice	763	1,522	Owens	684	1,412	Garner	516	839	Stokes	398	768	Clark	312	345
82.	1999 kan	947	Gonzalez	929	1,128	Alexander	732	1,188	Horn	565	1,266	Lockett	408	408	Rison	207	1,213
83.	1996 ram	947	Bruce	1,218	1,457	Kennison	881	987	Green	289	330	Conwell	153	427	Ross	151	151
84.	1997 gnb	947	Freeman	1,220	1,279	Brooks	937	1,299	Levens	475	551	Chmura	470	624	Henderson	383	383
85.	1995 dal	946	Irvin	1,497	1,497	Novacek	708	748	Williams	535	535	Smith	435	487	Johnston	265	435
86.	2008 clt	946	Wayne	990	1,328	Clark	800	1,031	Harrison	612	1,558	Gonzalez	608	608	Rhodes	347	347
87.	2012 nwe	945	Welker	1,095	1,280	Lloyd	722	1,153	Gronkowski	682	1,149	Hernandez	445	784	Woodhead	375	375
88.	1992 dal	944	Irvin	1,321	1,497	Novacek	748	748	Harper	561	778	Smith	446	487	Martin	397	770
89.	1993 atl	944	Rison	1,213	1,213	Pritchard	766	843	Haynes	749	1,049	Hill	341	1,222	Pegram	287	287
90.	1984 rai	943	Christensen	972	1,205	Allen	740	763	Barnwell	701	701	Williams	439	804	Branch	337	1,641
91.	1998 det	943	Moore	963	1,466	Morton	911	990	Crowell	418	1,111	Sanders	306	488	Vardell	150	195
92.	1999 clt	943	Harrison	1,540	1,558	James	607	617	Wilkins	531	531	Dilger	447	606	Pollard	388	694
93.	2009 pit	943	Ward	1,029	1,279	Holmes	1,018	1,018	Miller	753	753	Wallace	626	1,076	Mendenhall	237	237
94.	1996 nyj	942	Chrebet	801	1,021	Johnson	760	1,155	Graham	668	1,108	Slaughter	366	1,038	Anderson	349	775
95.	1991 sfo	942	Rice	1,225	1,522	Taylor	981	1,006	Jones	358	730	Rathman	296	638	Sherrard	296	838
96.	1990 rai	941	Gault	1,048	1,048	Fernandez	971	1,055	Horton	509	731	Brown	336	1,267	Allen	230	763
97.	1984 mia	939	Clayton	1,281	1,281	Duper	1,103	1,103	Nathan	560	640	Moore	550	1,327	Johnson	397	397
98.	1993 min	937	Carter	1,079	1,277	Carter	754	1,089	Jordan	541	795	Ismail	210	952	Craig	182	977
99.	1988 sfo	937	Rice	1,172	1,522	Craig	606	977	Wilson	409	463	Rathman	384	638	Taylor	282	1,006
100.	1998 car	934	Ismail	962	1,033	Muhammad	881	1,321	Walls	535	810	Carrier	274	1,204	Johnson	250	527

Now, back to Roethlisberger. He went from having a group of receivers who had (as a group) 800-950 peak TRY scores (culminating with that 943 figure in ’09 — the 93rd-most talented group in our sample) every year of his career until 2012, when Pittsburgh’s targets fell to a weighted average of 698 peak TRY. And as mentioned before, this year’s group loses Wallace (peak TRY: 1,076), will be missing a chunk of time from Miller (753), and will lean heavily on Emmanuel Sanders (previous high TRY: 480) and rookie Markus Wheaton. Slated in Pittsburgh’s starting lineup at wide receiver, it’d be hard for Sanders not to improve upon his career-best TRY in 2013, but even so, it’s not at all clear the 2013 Steelers’ receiving corps will post a peak TRY average better than last year’s unit — much less those of the pass-catching groups Big Ben enjoyed earlier in his career. Other than Antonio Brown, it’s a very green group.

How will this affect the Steelers’ offense this season? Well, despite the franchise’s smash-mouth pedigree, Pittsburgh has relied more and more on their passing game in recent years, to the point that they were the 12th-most pass-oriented team in the league a year ago by both Game Script and traditional pass/run ratio. As a result, there’s been a pretty clear correlation between the team’s passing performance by Relative ANY/A and its offensive SRS since 2009:

When Pittsburgh slung the ball around effectively in ’09 and ’10, the Steelers offense was healthy; but when the passing game slipped (in part due to declining receiving talent, as well as injuries to Roethlisberger), the offense suffered.

Unsurprisingly, the general trend is for quarterbacks to see their RANY/A averages decline with a loss of receiver talent. Whether at the career or season level for QBs, the correlation between team peak TRY and RANY/A is around 0.5, meaning around a quarter of the variation in observed team passing performance is explained by variations in receiver quality (even using our simple, flawed metric thereof). For Roethlisberger, a drop in the quality of his receivers from the 700 peak TRY in 2012 to, say, 600-625 in 2013 would traditionally lead to a 0.4-point decline in RANY/A, which is worth two-thirds of a win per 16 games.

One large saving grace for Roethlisberger and the Steelers, though, is that he already weathered an even bigger dip in receiver quality last season and actually improved his RANY/A, producing essentially the same passing value over replacement in 2 fewer starts:

For Big Ben at least, there actually doesn’t seem to be much rhyme or reason to how the quality of his receivers interacts with his RANY/A performance. In the last 2 seasons alone, he’s been of pretty equal effectiveness working with both good and mediocre receiving groups, and he’s also had below-average seasons in the past despite really good receiving corps (2008 particularly stands out in this regard). So between that and the uncertainty over what the future peak TRY will actually be for the young receivers Pittsburgh must relying on, it’s tough to definitively predict a receiving-talent-related dip in Roethlisberger’s passing efficiency in 2013.

In fact, it’s safe to say the Steelers’ offensive fortunes in 2013 ride more on Big Ben simply staying upright and healthy all season than any decline in the quality of the players catching his passes. With a re-tooled offensive line and more experience in Todd Haley’s system, Pittsburgh hopes they won’t have to endure a repeat of last season, when a Roethlisberger injury forced them to give 21 percent of their dropbacks to Charlie Batch and Byron Leftwich (who oversaw an atrocious -2.0 RANY/A passing attack when they were under center). Given that the backup situation (Bruce Gradkowski; Landry Jones) isn’t exactly inspiring in 2013, the biggest key to the Steelers’ season will be to keep Roethlisberger in the lineup — no matter what group of receivers he’s throwing to.

Previous “Random Perspective On” Articles:
AFC East: Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, New York Jets
AFC North: Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC South: Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans
AFC West: Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers
NFC East: Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins
NFC North: Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings
NFC South: Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFC West: Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, St. Louis Rams