Best AV-Weighted Winning Percentages of Defensive Players and Hall of Famers

by Chase Stuart on July 4, 2014

Yesterday, I looked at the best AV-weighted winning percentages of offensive players. Today, we examine the same numbers but for defensive players and kickers since 1960. Again, players who entered the league prior to 1960 are included, but for purposes of this study, only their 1960+ seasons count (assuming they produced at least 50 points of AV). That’s a pretty important bit of detail to mention when it comes to the top player on the list. The player with the best AV-adjusted winning percentage since 1960 is Packers linebacker Bill Forester, who entered the NFL in 1953 but only gets credit for his 1960-1963 seasons in Green Bay (spoiler: those were pretty good ones). After him, of course, we have yet another Patriots lineman. Today it’s Vince Wilfork:

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Rk	Name	Pos	First	Last	AV	Win%
1	Bill Forester	LB-MG-DT	1960	1963	51	0.809
2	Vince Wilfork	NT-DT	2004	2013	93	0.783
3	Dan Conners	LB	1964	1974	82	0.781
4	George Atkinson	DB	1968	1979	80	0.774
5	Bubba Smith	DE-DT	1967	1976	71	0.771
6	Gus Otto	LB	1965	1972	52	0.766
7	Otis Sistrunk	DT-DE-NT	1972	1978	58	0.765
8	Bill Stanfill	DE	1969	1976	73	0.762
9	Jake Scott	DB	1970	1978	98	0.76
10	Curtis Johnson	DB	1970	1978	57	0.759
11	Charles Haley	DE-LB	1986	1999	100	0.757
12	Herb Adderley	DB	1961	1972	133	0.753
13	Raheem Brock	DE	2002	2011	50	0.753
14	Corey Simon	DT	2000	2005	50	0.749
15	NaVorro Bowman	LB	2010	2013	53	0.748
16	Charlie Waters	DB	1970	1981	79	0.746
17	Larry Cole	DE-DT	1968	1980	77	0.746
18	Dave Duerson	DB	1983	1993	67	0.746
19	Mike Walter	LB	1983	1993	56	0.745
20	Merton Hanks	DB	1991	1999	70	0.744
21	Lenny Lyles	DB-HB	1960	1969	55	0.744
22	Willie Davis	DE-DT	1960	1969	115	0.743
23	Jerry Logan	DB	1964	1972	79	0.743
24	Henry Jordan	DT-DE	1960	1969	114	0.742
25	Michael Carter	NT	1984	1992	77	0.742
26	Dan Currie	LB	1960	1966	60	0.741
27	Tim Foley	DB	1970	1980	59	0.741
28	Jethro Pugh	DT-DE	1965	1978	99	0.739
29	D.D. Lewis	LB	1968	1981	87	0.739
30	Harvey Martin	DE-DT	1973	1983	96	0.739
31	Bobby Boyd	DB	1960	1968	111	0.736
32	Manny Fernandez	DT-DE	1968	1975	52	0.736
33	Billy Ray Sr. Smith	DT-DE	1960	1970	81	0.736
34	Bob Breunig	LB	1975	1984	80	0.736
35	Tom Keating	DT	1964	1975	59	0.735
36	Jack Tatum	DB	1971	1980	77	0.735
37	Fred Miller	DT	1963	1972	84	0.733
38	Cliff Harris	DB	1970	1979	92	0.733
39	Dick Anderson	DB	1968	1977	75	0.73
40	Bobby Bryant	DB	1968	1980	91	0.728
41	Wally Hilgenberg	LB-G	1964	1979	99	0.728
42	Dwight White	DE	1971	1980	72	0.726
43	Pierce Holt	DE-DT	1988	1995	52	0.726
44	Ron Kostelnik	DT	1961	1969	58	0.725
45	Mike Wagner	DB	1971	1980	70	0.724
46	Vern Den Herder	DE-NT	1971	1982	84	0.723
47	Phil Villapiano	LB	1971	1982	80	0.721
48	Keena Turner	LB	1980	1990	75	0.72
49	Jack Reynolds	LB	1970	1984	108	0.72
50	Dave Elmendorf	DB	1971	1979	73	0.719

Showing 1 to 50 of 500 entries

Defensive Linemen

Wilfork has an incredible 0.783 winning percentage: it’s been a very good decade in New England, and that doesn’t even include the ’01 season. Bubba Smith comes in at #5, while Otis Sistrunk, Bill Stanfill, Charles Haley, Raheem Brock, Corey Simon (?!), and Larry Cole also crack the top twenty.

Among active players, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are the second and third “winningest” defensive linemen, but both are far behind Wilfork. Haloti Ngata, Shaun Phillips (who is really more linebacker), Brett Keisel, Justin Tuck, and John Abraham also make the top 300.

Linebackers

In addition to Forester, Raiders linebackers Dan Conners and Gus Otto both crack the top ten. Next up at #15 is NaVorro Bowman, who has a 0.748 adjusted winning percentage. Other notables; Phil Villapiano, Keena Turner, and Jack Reynolds come in at 47, 48, and 49, Mike Vrabel and Jack Ham at 54 and 55, and Tedy Bruschi ranks 62nd. Among active players, Clay Matthews and James Harrison also crack the top 100.

Defensive Backs

Among defensive backs, players from the ’60s and ’70s dominate: George Atkinson (Oakland), Jake Scott (Miami), Curtis Johnson (Miami), Herb Adderley (Green Bay), and Charlie Waters rank in the top sixteen, with the late Dave Duerson at #18 and Merton Hanks at 20. Among active players, Asante Samuel (0.717), Troy Polamalu (0.697), and Antoine Bethea (0.690 and now in San Francisco) have the best AV-adjusted winning percentages.

Hall of Famers

What about the best and worst AV-adjusted winning percentages of players in the Hall of Fame? Remember, we’re only looking at seasons since 1960. The table below shows the AV Adjusted winning percentages for all players in the Hall of Fame with at least 50 points of AV. It also includes their “actual record” which I’m putting in quotes because it’s the records of the teams they played on and not the actual records of those players. And please be sure to read this footnote. ^[1]For someone like Jerry Rice, who played for two teams in one season, the record is misleading because I’ve combined the records of both of his teams that year. But I was in a rush, and I … Continue reading

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Rk	Name	Pos	First	Last	AV	Adj Win%	Act Rec	Act Win%
1	Fred Biletnikoff	WR-FL	1965	1978	119	0.774	144-45-9	0.75
2	Gene Upshaw	G	1967	1981	151	0.764	155-56-7	0.727
3	John Mackey	TE	1963	1972	68	0.757	96-38-6	0.707
4	Paul Hornung	HB-FB-QB	1960	1966	50	0.755	73-42-3	0.631
5	Herb Adderley	DB	1961	1972	133	0.753	119-44-5	0.723
6	Paul Warfield	WR-SE	1964	1977	136	0.745	131-48-3	0.728
7	Willie Davis	DE-DT	1960	1969	115	0.743	112-45-5	0.707
8	Jim Taylor	FB	1960	1967	97	0.743	84-46-4	0.642
9	Henry Jordan	DT-DE	1960	1969	114	0.742	121-47-6	0.713
10	Roger Staubach	QB	1969	1979	128	0.736	116-41-1	0.737
11	Art Shell	T	1968	1982	121	0.733	150-56-7	0.721
12	Rayfield Wright	T-TE	1967	1979	103	0.73	137-48-1	0.739
13	Tom Mack	G	1966	1978	120	0.73	129-48-7	0.72
14	Forrest Gregg	T-G-DT	1960	1971	113	0.729	125-71-6	0.634
15	Lynn Swann	WR	1974	1982	73	0.727	90-38-1	0.702
16	Larry Little	G-T	1967	1980	131	0.727	132-67-3	0.661
17	Franco Harris	RB	1972	1984	134	0.72	133-55-1	0.706
18	Bob Hayes	SE-WR	1965	1975	96	0.72	103-49-2	0.675
19	Jim Langer	C-G	1970	1981	106	0.719	120-55-1	0.685
20	Russ Grimm	G-C	1981	1991	90	0.718	115-53-0	0.685
21	Bart Starr	QB	1960	1971	114	0.716	121-85-8	0.584
22	Jack Ham	LB	1971	1982	146	0.715	117-53-1	0.687
23	Ray Nitschke	LB	1960	1972	120	0.71	124-72-8	0.627
24	Alan Page	DT	1967	1981	184	0.706	145-84-5	0.63
25	Joe Montana	QB	1980	1994	164	0.704	154-77-1	0.666
26	Willie Brown	DB	1963	1978	144	0.702	140-77-9	0.639
27	Steve Young	QB	1985	1999	171	0.699	154-85-0	0.644
28	Dwight Stephenson	C-T	1980	1987	91	0.696	80-39-1	0.671
29	Carl Eller	DE	1964	1979	167	0.695	143-78-7	0.643
30	Terry Bradshaw	QB	1970	1982	137	0.694	132-68-1	0.659
31	Jerry Rice	WR	1985	2004	250	0.694	215-119-1	0.643
32	Ron Yary	T	1968	1982	128	0.693	137-74-2	0.648
33	Jim Brown	FB	1960	1965	122	0.692	79-34-5	0.691
34	Jack Lambert	LB	1974	1984	135	0.689	109-51-1	0.68
35	Mel Blount	DB	1970	1983	134	0.689	132-68-1	0.659
36	Tony Dorsett	RB	1977	1988	138	0.688	118-64-0	0.648
37	Ronnie Lott	DB	1981	1994	161	0.684	142-73-1	0.66
38	Larry Csonka	RB	1968	1979	88	0.683	89-66-3	0.573
39	Gene Hickerson	G	1960	1973	111	0.682	133-65-6	0.667
40	Willie Wood	DB	1961	1971	118	0.678	106-53-7	0.66
41	Mel Renfro	DB-RB	1964	1977	130	0.677	136-57-3	0.702
42	Thurman Thomas	RB	1988	2000	138	0.677	135-73-0	0.649
43	Jack Youngblood	DE	1971	1984	139	0.677	127-73-3	0.633
44	Paul Krause	DB-WR	1964	1979	155	0.676	143-80-5	0.638
45	Randy White	DT-LB-DE	1975	1988	149	0.672	134-76-0	0.638
46	Johnny Unitas	QB	1960	1973	145	0.67	150-86-6	0.632
47	Richard Dent	DE	1983	1997	121	0.668	147-91-1	0.617
48	Marcus Allen	RB	1982	1997	142	0.666	154-94-0	0.621
49	Leroy Kelly	RB	1964	1973	102	0.665	92-44-4	0.671
50	Rosey Brown	T	1960	1965	56	0.665	98-61-7	0.611

Showing 1 to 50 of 170 entries

O.J. Simpson‘s teams had the worst record of any player in the Hall of Fame, although for AV-adjusted winning percentage, Cortez Kennedy has him beat. One reason for that? In Simpson’s best year, the Bills went 8-6, while in Kennedy’s top season, the Seahawks finished 2-14. The remainder of the bottom of the list of AV-adjusted winning percentages of HOFers is no surprise: Tampa Bay’s Lee Roy Selmon, Denver’s Floyd Little, Chicago’s Dick Butkus and Gale Sayers, Simpson’s teammate in Buffalo, Joe DeLamielleure, and Houston’s Elvin Bethea (another Oiler, Earl Campbell, isn’t too far behind).

The list of the Hall of Famers with the best career adjusted winning percentages won’t bring any surprises, either. Raiders and Packers and Steelers tend to dominate the top of the list, along with Paul Warfield, the wide receiver whose career has confounded analysts for decades.

References[+]

References
↑1	For someone like Jerry Rice, who played for two teams in one season, the record is misleading because I’ve combined the records of both of his teams that year. But I was in a rush, and I figured I’d rather include the data with a disclaimer than not include it at all. Even by “good enougher” standards this one was pretty bad, but… oh well.

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