Best AV-Weighted Winning Percentages of Offensive Players

by Chase Stuart on July 3, 2014

A true winner and Tom Brady.

Yesterday, I looked at the weighted career winning percentages for running backs, with the weight being based on each player’s yards from scrimmage in each season of his career. Today, I want to do the same thing but for all offensive players, using PFR’s Approximate Value ratings.

By this methodology, Dan Koppen has the highest AV-weighted career winning percentage of any offensive player since 1960. The table below shows his AV and team’s winning percentage in each season of his career. Because Koppen’s best season came in 2007, when the Patriots went 16-0, Koppen’s career winning percentage gets a big boost from that season (18.7% of his career winning percentage comes from ’07 since 18.7% of his career AV comes from that year). On the other hand, Koppen played in just one total game for the 13-3 Patriots (2011) and the 13-3 Broncos (2013), so he gets almost no credit for those performances. Of course, he doesn’t need it, because his average season, after adjusting the weights based on his AV grades, was a 13-3 season.

Year	Tm	G	GS	AV	Record	% of Car AV	WtWin%
2003	NWE	16	15	7	0.875	8%	0.07
2004	NWE	16	16	10	0.875	11.5%	0.101
2005	NWE	9	9	5	0.625	5.7%	0.036
2006	NWE	16	16	10	0.75	11.5%	0.086
2007	NWE	15	15	16	1	18.4%	0.184
2008	NWE	16	16	10	0.688	11.5%	0.079
2009	NWE	16	16	10	0.625	11.5%	0.072
2010	NWE	16	16	11	0.875	12.6%	0.111
2011	NWE	1	1	1	0.813	1.1%	0.009
2012	DEN	15	12	7	0.813	8%	0.065
2013	DEN	0		0	0.813	0%	0
Total					0	100%	0.813

The table below shows the top 500 career AV-adjusted winning percentages among all offensive player since 1960 (minimum: 50 points of AV). As always, players who entered the NFL before 1960 are included but only their seasons beginning in 1960 count. The table below is fully sortable and searchable, so get to searching and leave your thoughts in the comments.

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Rk	Name	Pos	First	Last	AV	Win%
1	Dan Koppen	C	2003	2012	87	0.813
2	Logan Mankins	G	2005	2013	96	0.8
3	Daryle Lamonica	QB	1963	1973	90	0.79
4	Matt Light	T	2001	2011	118	0.789
5	Mercury Morris	RB	1969	1976	55	0.788
6	Fuzzy Thurston	G	1960	1967	57	0.786
7	Tom Brady	QB	2001	2013	190	0.781
8	Fred Biletnikoff	WR-FL	1965	1978	119	0.774
9	Max McGee	E	1960	1966	63	0.772
10	Brent Jones	TE	1988	1997	61	0.767
11	Cliff Branch	WR	1972	1984	108	0.767
12	Gene Upshaw	G	1967	1981	151	0.764
13	Wes Welker	WR	2004	2013	104	0.762
14	John Mackey	TE	1963	1972	68	0.757
15	John Williams	T-G-DE	1968	1979	69	0.757
16	Bubba Paris	T-G	1983	1991	59	0.757
17	Gerry Mullins	G-T	1971	1979	55	0.756
18	Lawrence McCutcheon	RB	1973	1981	85	0.756
19	Jerry Kramer	G	1960	1968	90	0.755
20	Paul Hornung	HB-FB-QB	1960	1966	50	0.755
21	Harris Barton	T-G	1987	1996	94	0.754
22	Jesse Sapolu	C-G	1983	1997	99	0.754
23	Steve Wallace	T-G	1986	1997	86	0.754
24	John Taylor	WR	1987	1995	68	0.751
25	Chuck Foreman	RB	1973	1980	92	0.749
26	George Buehler	G	1969	1979	64	0.748
27	Paul Warfield	WR-SE	1964	1977	136	0.745
28	Joseph Addai	RB	2006	2011	54	0.743
29	Jim Taylor	FB	1960	1967	97	0.743
30	Pat Donovan	T	1975	1983	76	0.741
31	Bob Vogel	T	1963	1972	91	0.74
32	Dave Dalby	C	1972	1985	86	0.74
33	Dallas Clark	TE	2003	2013	61	0.74
34	Herbert Scott	G-T	1975	1984	79	0.74
35	Ralph Neely	T-G	1965	1977	108	0.738
36	Robert Newhouse	RB	1972	1982	54	0.737
37	Roger Staubach	QB	1969	1979	128	0.736
38	Steve Neal	G-T	2002	2010	60	0.736
39	John Fitzgerald	C-G	1971	1980	66	0.736
40	Bob Skoronski	T-C	1960	1968	60	0.736
41	Roger Craig	RB	1983	1993	115	0.735
42	Billy Cannon	TE-HB-FB	1960	1970	62	0.734
43	Walt Garrison	RB	1966	1974	59	0.733
44	Art Shell	T	1968	1982	121	0.733
45	Blaine Nye	G	1968	1976	61	0.732
46	Guy McIntyre	G	1984	1996	89	0.732
47	Boyd Dowler	FL-SE-WR	1960	1971	93	0.731
48	Rocky Bleier	RB	1968	1980	52	0.731
49	Rayfield Wright	T-TE	1967	1979	103	0.73
50	Tom Mack	G	1966	1978	120	0.73

Showing 1 to 50 of 500 entries

Quarterbacks

It’s no surprise that Daryle Lamonica and Tom Brady top the lists at quarterback. Lamonica began his career with a 17-1 record, while Brady is the only quarterback with 100+ more wins than losses. Roger Staubach, Bart Starr, Peyton Manning, Joe Montana, Ken Stabler, Steve Young, and Terry Bradshaw all appear in the top 100: hey, if those guys weren’t at the top, there’d be something wrong with my methodology.

Running Backs

Mercury Morris didn’t qualify for yesterday’s post because he has just 4,676 yards from scrimmage, but he checks in at #5 overall here. Among older backs, Paul Hornung, Jim Taylor, Billy Cannon, Paul Lowe, and Jim Brown (at #100) crack the top 100, while Joseph Addai also breaks into the top 30 once you remove the yardage thresholds (at 5901, he missed it yesterday).

Wide Receivers

Fred Biletnikoff and Cliff Branch rank 8th and 11th overall, which isn’t news to anyone who remembers this post. Wes Welker ranks 13th and his charmed life doesn’t seem likely to end anytime soon. Jerry Rice comes in at #98, which is ahead of Dwight Clark (#294) but behind John Taylor (#24).

Tim Brown doesn’t crack the top 500, but Andre Reed and Cris Carter are both right around #300. I’m a bit surprised to see Marvin Harrison (0.649) and Randy Moss (0.635) so close together; Terrell Owens is at 0.597, while Torry Holt is last in that quartet at 0.572.

Tight Ends

Brent Jones, John Mackey, and Dallas Clark are the “winningest” tight ends. Shannon Sharpe had a 0.650 adjusted winning percentage, Antonio Gates is at 0.648, Jason Witten is at 0.561, and Tony Gonzalez does not make the list. In 12 years in Kansas City, the Chiefs went 95-97, while the Falcons went 49-31 during his five years in Atlanta. Still, that gives Gonzalez only a (unadjusted) 0.529 winning percentage.

Offensive Lineman

Three Patriots linemen crack the top four on this list; after them, Packers great Fuzzy Thurston is the next linemen, followed by Gene Upshaw and John Williams. Williams is an interesting case: he played on teams that went 42-12-2 in Baltimore (0.768) and then 81-33-2 (0.707) in LA. Or, to put it another way, while playing with two franchises across twelve seasons, he played on teams that went 10-4 or better nine different times. For the Steelers fans out there, Mike Webster (0.607) edges out Dermontti Dawson (0.598), but both have lower percentages than I would have expected. Carl Nicks, even after nine games of Operation Schiano, has the highest adjusted winning percentage of any active offensive linemen that doesn’t have Patriots ties.

Which players/results surprised you?

Tagged as: AV

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