Biggest Covers In Vegas History (1978-2016)

by Chase Stuart on July 8, 2017

Last week, I noted that the Colts/Vikings game was the least-conforming game of the 2016 season. Here’s what I wrote then:

The Colts were 0.2 points per game better than average last year, as measured by the Simple Rating System (which takes the points scored and allowed in each game, and adjusts for opponent strength and home field advantage).

The Vikings were 0.9. points per game better than average in 2016, and hosted the Colts in week 15. Given those facts, we would expect Minnesota to have won by 3.7 points. Instead, Indianapolis upset the Vikings, 34-6, beating the expected line by 31.7 points. That was the least-conforming game of 2016.

Well, it wasn’t just the SRS that found that game to be pretty odd. Our friends in the desert expected the Vikings to win by 5 points, which means the Colts covered the point spread by a whopping 33 points. Two weeks earlier, Indianapolis was actually an underdog in a Monday Night Football game that you would have had to been an idiot to attend in person. The Colts were 1-point underdogs, but won by 31 points, giving Indianapolis a 32-point cover. Those were two of the three biggest covers of the year, with the Eagles 34-3 win over Pittsburgh as 3.5 point underdogs (+34.5) being the biggest cover of 2016.

At Pro-Football-Reference.com, we have points spread data going back to 1978. Below are the biggest covers in history:

entries per page

Search:

Rk	Year	Team	Opp	Wk	PF	PA	Pt Spread	Boxscore	Cover
1	2010	OAK	DEN	7	59	14	+7	10/24/10	52
2	1989	CIN	HOU	15	61	7	-3.5	12/17/89	50.5
3	2009	NWE	TEN	6	59	0	-9	10/18/09	50
4	1989	CLE	PIT	1	51	0	-2	09/10/89	49
5	2012	SEA	ARI	14	58	0	-10	12/09/12	48
5	1980	CHI	GNB	14	61	7	-6	12/07/80	48
7	2014	STL	OAK	13	52	0	-6	11/30/14	46
7	2005	GNB	NOR	5	52	3	-3	10/09/05	46
7	1999	OAK	TAM	15	45	0	+1	12/19/99	46
10	1979	NWE	NYJ	2	56	3	-8	09/09/79	45
10	1997	IND	MIA	16	41	0	+4	12/14/97	45
12	1996	STL	ATL	11	59	16	+1.5	11/10/96	44.5
12	1988	GNB	NWE	6	45	3	+2.5	10/09/88	44.5
12	1983	DET	PIT	13	45	3	+2.5	11/24/83	44.5
12	1997	NYJ	SEA	1	41	3	+6.5	08/31/97	44.5

Showing 1 to 15 of 209 entries

The Broncos couldn’t tackle or cover in this one.

The top cover since 1978 belongs to the 2010 Raiders. In week 7, the 2-4 Raiders traveled to Denver to face the 2-4 Broncos. The prior week, the Raiders lost to the 0-5 49ers, so Oakland was a 7-point underdog for the game in Denver. But just over 6 minutes into the 1st quarter, the Raiders were already up 21-0. Darren McFadden finished the game with 165 rushing yards on 16 carries with 3 TDs, and caught 2 passes for 31 yards and another score. Jason Campbell went 12/20 for 2014 yards with 2 TDs, and Oakland won 59-14. That was a 45-point thrashing and a 52-point cover, the largest in recorded history.

{ 2 comments }