Biggest Declines In Passing Offense From Year to Year

by Chase Stuart on December 21, 2015

In 2014, the Denver Broncos ranked 4th in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt; in case you forgot, Peyton Manning‘s “struggles” last year were really confined to the back end of the season. This year, the Broncos rank 31st in ANY/A, as Manning has been terrible and Brock Osweiler has been far below average. The Broncos ANY/A has dropped from 7.67 to 4.90, a decline of 2.77 ANY/A.

But that’s not even the biggest decline of 2015. Last year, the Dallas Cowboys ranked 2nd in ANY/A at 7.96; this year, without Tony Romo, the team is dead last at 4.76, for a decline of 3.20 ANY/A. Here is the full list of how passing offenses have improved/declined from 2014, which also shows why Carson Palmer is a pretty good choice for MVP:

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Rk	Tm	2014 ANY/A	2015 ANY/A	Diff
1	Arizona Cardinals	6.19	8.53	2.35
2	Jacksonville Jaguars	3.97	6.14	2.17
3	Cincinnati Bengals	5.81	7.97	2.16
4	Oakland Raiders	4.56	6.52	1.97
5	New York Jets	4.75	6.54	1.78
6	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4.83	6.46	1.62
7	Carolina Panthers	5.84	7.25	1.41
8	Seattle Seahawks	6.72	7.86	1.14
9	Buffalo Bills	5.65	6.77	1.13
10	Chicago Bears	5.44	6.45	1.01
11	Minnesota Vikings	4.88	5.76	0.88
12	New England Patriots	6.92	7.69	0.77
13	Washington Redskins	5.95	6.70	0.76
14	Kansas City Chiefs	6.04	6.64	0.61
15	Cleveland Browns	5.60	6.00	0.40
16	New York Giants	6.66	6.92	0.26
17	San Diego Chargers	6.40	6.64	0.25
18	Tennessee Titans	5.49	5.68	0.19
19	New Orleans Saints	6.76	6.85	0.08
20	Miami Dolphins	5.82	5.69	-0.12
21	Detroit Lions	6.06	5.78	-0.28
22	St. Louis Rams	5.48	5.06	-0.42
23	Houston Texans	6.28	5.84	-0.44
24	San Francisco 49ers	5.59	5.08	-0.51
25	Philadelphia Eagles	6.05	5.45	-0.60
26	Atlanta Falcons	6.69	5.82	-0.87
27	Pittsburgh Steelers	7.81	6.82	-0.99
28	Baltimore Ravens	6.66	5.41	-1.26
29	Green Bay Packers	8.39	6.50	-1.90
30	Indianapolis Colts	7.27	5.13	-2.14
31	Denver Broncos	7.67	4.90	-2.77
32	Dallas Cowboys	7.96	4.76	-3.20

Drastic swings in ANY/A more common long ago, when teams threw fewer passes (leading to unsustainable high/low ANY/A averages driven by small sample sizes) and interceptions (which cause large swings in ANY/A) were also a bit more varied. The 1932 Cardinals had a respectable 3.9 AY/A average ^[1]For seasons prior to 1969, we have to use AY/A, not ANY/A, due to the lack of sack data available. which was the product of 2 TDs, 4 INTs, and a 5.0 Y/A average on 126 passes. In 1933, on 139 passes, the Cardinals averaged 3.4 Y/A with 3 TDs and … thirty interceptions, which caused the team’s AY/A average to plummet by 9.77 to -5.90. No other team in history is even within 3.5 AY/A of that sort of decline.

If we limit our sample to just the post-merger era, the Cowboys decline would rank as the 4th worst ever. The table below shows the biggest declines in ANY/A, year over year, from 1970 to 2014. It also lists the quarterback with the most pass attempts in both seasons:

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Rk	Tm	Yr	Yr N ANY/A	QB Yr N	Yr N-1 ANY/A	QB Yr N-1	Diff
1	ATL	1974	-0.02	Bob Lee	4.82	Bob Lee	-4.84
2	MIN	2010	4.08	Brett Favre	7.70	Brett Favre	-3.62
3	GNB	1970	2.42	Bart Starr	5.70	Don Horn	-3.28
4	BAL	1973	1.90	Marty Domres	5.06	Marty Domres	-3.16
5	RAM	1981	2.69	Pat Haden	5.82	Vince Ferragamo	-3.13
6	BOS	1970	1.07	Joe Kapp	4.14	Mike Taliaferro	-3.07
7	WAS	1992	5.31	Mark Rypien	8.33	Mark Rypien	-3.02
8	MIN	2005	4.94	Brad Johnson	7.95	Daunte Culpepper	-3.01
9	SFO	1971	4.62	John Brodie	7.60	John Brodie	-2.98
10	BAL	1978	2.44	Bill Troup	5.38	Bert Jones	-2.94
11	OAK	1977	4.15	Ken Stabler	7.08	Ken Stabler	-2.93
12	OAK	2003	4.08	Rich Gannon	6.94	Rich Gannon	-2.86
13	NYG	1973	3.39	Norm Snead	6.18	Norm Snead	-2.79
14	NWE	2008	6.00	Matt Cassel	8.77	Tom Brady	-2.77
15	GNB	2005	4.31	Brett Favre	7.05	Brett Favre	-2.74
16	CLE	2008	3.32	Derek Anderson	6.04	Derek Anderson	-2.72
17	NYJ	1973	3.38	Al Woodall	6.06	Joe Namath	-2.68
18	CIN	2008	3.46	Ryan Fitzpatrick	6.14	Carson Palmer	-2.68
19	MIA	2009	4.52	Chad Henne	7.19	Chad Pennington	-2.67
20	BUF	1982	3.34	Joe Ferguson	6.00	Joe Ferguson	-2.67
21	SFO	1999	4.56	Jeff Garcia	7.23	Steve Young	-2.66
22	KAN	1977	2.71	Mike Livingston	5.34	Mike Livingston	-2.64
23	OAK	2006	2.67	Andrew Walter	5.30	Kerry Collins	-2.64
24	DET	1977	2.14	Greg Landry	4.73	Greg Landry	-2.59
25	STL	2007	3.78	Marc Bulger	6.37	Marc Bulger	-2.59
26	SEA	1992	1.70	Stan Gelbaugh	4.22	Dave Krieg	-2.52
27	DAL	1972	4.09	Craig Morton	6.61	Roger Staubach	-2.52
28	TEN	2004	5.21	Billy Volek	7.73	Steve McNair	-2.51
29	DET	1996	4.53	Scott Mitchell	7.03	Scott Mitchell	-2.50
30	BUF	1976	3.35	Gary Marangi	5.85	Joe Ferguson	-2.50

In 1973, Bob Lee led a solid Falcons passing attack that averaged 4.82 ANY/A, good enough for 10th best in the 26-team NFL. In 1974, Lee, Pat Sullivan, and Kim McQuiklen were disasters, throwing four touchdowns against 31 interceptions, producing an ANY/A of -0.02.

In 2009, Brett Favre had one of the best seasons of his career; in what may have foreshadowed what has happened to Manning, he then had arguably the worst season of his career at age 41. A similar story involves Bart Starr, who fell off dramatically from his age 35 season in 1969 to his age 36 season in 1970.

At this page, the 2015 Cowboys will occupy the next spot on the list. It’s been that kind of year for Dallas. The Cowboys rank 1st in interception rate and yet in the bottom three in both touchdown rate and yards per completion; that sort of high-risk, low-reward passing attack is tough to pull off.

References[+]

References
↑1	For seasons prior to 1969, we have to use AY/A, not ANY/A, due to the lack of sack data available.

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