Bill Belichick And Coaching Records Against The Spread

by Chase Stuart on May 1, 2014

Belichick has an eye on the point spread.

Last week at Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver noted that San Antonio Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich has produced an excellent record against the spread. He also checked in football’s version of Pop, Bill Belichick, and came to the same conclusion: Belichick hasn’t just been great, but he’s been great against the spread, too.

My database on point spreads goes back to 1978, so I went ahead and calculated the Against-The-Spread record of each head coach over the last 36 seasons. According to my numbers, Belichick has “covered” or won 40 more games against the spread than he’s lost, the most over this period. ^[1]My numbers differ slightly from Silver’s, although that’s not surprising. There is always some variation in point spread data, which is, of course, not official. The table below shows the 122 men who have coached at least 50 games or who were active in 2013.

Here’s how to read Belichick’s line: He has been coaching since 1991 (coaches who began before 1978 are included, but only their post-1977 seasons are counted (and only if they coached 50+ games since 1978)) and was last coaching in 2013. Over that time, he has coached in 332 games, including the post-season. His record against the spread is 182-142-8, which gives him a 0.562 winning percentage (ignoring ties). ^[2]When calculating regular winning percentage, we treat ties as half-wins and half-losses. In his article, Silver excluded ties from calculating ATS winning percentages. I don’t know … Continue reading His real record is 218-114-0, which gives him a 0.657 winning percentage (again, including the playoffs). The table is sorted by the last category, which represents the difference beteween his number of wins against the spread and his number of losses against the spread.

Rank	Coach	First Yr	Last Yr	G	W	L	P	ATS Win%	Record	Rec %	Win Over
1	Bill Belichick	1991	2013	332	182	142	8	0.562	218-114-0	0.657	40
2	Bill Walsh	1979	1988	166	97	67	2	0.591	102-63-1	0.617	30
3	Dick Vermeil	1978	2005	212	114	91	7	0.556	117-95-0	0.552	23
4	Tom Coughlin	1995	2013	307	161	138	8	0.538	170-137-0	0.554	23
5	Marty Schottenheimer	1984	2006	345	179	156	10	0.534	205-139-1	0.596	23
6	Mike McCarthy	2006	2013	139	79	57	3	0.581	88-50-1	0.637	22
7	Bill Cowher	1992	2006	261	138	116	7	0.543	161-99-1	0.619	22
8	Joe Gibbs	1981	2007	272	141	119	12	0.542	171-101-0	0.629	22
9	Andy Reid	1999	2013	260	138	118	4	0.539	151-108-1	0.583	20
10	Bill Parcells	1983	2006	322	166	146	10	0.532	183-138-1	0.57	20
11	Jeff Fisher	1994	2013	305	160	141	4	0.532	161-143-1	0.53	19
12	George Seifert	1989	2001	191	104	86	1	0.547	124-67-0	0.649	18
13	Dan Reeves	1981	2003	377	192	174	11	0.525	201-174-2	0.536	18
14	Tony Dungy	1996	2008	227	119	103	5	0.536	148-79-0	0.652	16
15	Jim Harbaugh	2011	2013	56	34	20	2	0.63	41-14-1	0.741	14
16	Pete Carroll	1994	2013	138	72	59	7	0.55	77-61-0	0.558	13
17	John Harbaugh	2008	2013	109	58	46	5	0.558	71-38-0	0.651	12
18	Wayne Fontes	1988	1996	138	74	62	2	0.544	67-71-0	0.486	12
19	Jimmy Johnson	1989	1999	157	82	70	5	0.539	89-68-0	0.567	12
20	John Fox	2002	2013	206	107	95	4	0.53	115-91-0	0.558	12
21	Brian Billick	1999	2007	152	79	68	5	0.537	85-67-0	0.559	11
22	Tom Flores	1979	1994	195	101	90	4	0.529	105-90-0	0.538	11
23	Jim Mora	1986	2001	237	122	111	4	0.524	125-112-0	0.527	11
24	Chuck Knox	1978	1994	274	138	127	9	0.521	136-138-0	0.496	11
25	Marv Levy	1978	1997	274	140	129	5	0.52	154-120-0	0.562	11
26	Bruce Arians	2013	2013	28	17	7	4	0.708	19-9-0	0.679	10
27	Mike Smith	2008	2013	101	55	45	1	0.55	61-40-0	0.604	10
28	Dom Capers	1995	2005	130	68	58	4	0.54	49-81-0	0.377	10
29	Dick Jauron	1999	2009	143	75	65	3	0.536	60-83-0	0.42	10
30	Sean Payton	2006	2013	122	64	55	3	0.538	79-43-0	0.648	9
31	Jack Pardee	1978	1994	127	65	57	5	0.533	68-59-0	0.535	8
32	Ron Rivera	2011	2013	49	27	20	2	0.574	25-24-0	0.51	7
33	Bobby Ross	1992	2000	145	74	68	3	0.521	77-68-0	0.531	6
34	Mike McCoy	2013	2013	18	11	6	1	0.647	10-8-0	0.556	5
35	Buddy Ryan	1986	1995	114	59	54	1	0.522	55-58-1	0.487	5
36	Chuck Noll	1978	1991	228	114	109	5	0.511	127-101-0	0.557	5
37	Raymond Berry	1984	1989	92	47	43	2	0.522	51-41-0	0.554	4
38	Ray Perkins	1979	1990	119	61	57	1	0.517	43-76-0	0.361	4
39	Forrest Gregg	1980	1987	124	63	59	2	0.516	59-64-1	0.48	4
40	Mike Ditka	1982	1999	228	113	109	6	0.509	127-101-0	0.557	4
41	Joe Philbin	2012	2013	32	17	14	1	0.548	15-17-0	0.469	3
42	Rex Ryan	2009	2013	86	43	40	3	0.518	46-40-0	0.535	3
43	John McKay	1978	1984	110	55	52	3	0.514	44-65-1	0.405	3
44	Chuck Pagano	2012	2013	23	12	10	1	0.545	14-9-0	0.609	2
45	Butch Davis	2001	2004	59	30	28	1	0.517	24-35-0	0.407	2
46	Jack Patera	1978	1982	66	33	31	2	0.516	28-38-0	0.424	2
47	Dave Wannstedt	1993	2004	174	85	83	6	0.506	84-90-0	0.483	2
48	Mike Holmgren	1992	2008	296	142	140	14	0.504	174-122-0	0.588	2
49	Jim Caldwell	2009	2011	52	26	25	1	0.51	28-24-0	0.538	1
50	Neill Armstrong	1978	1981	65	32	31	2	0.508	30-35-0	0.462	1
51	Walt Michaels	1978	1982	77	39	38	0	0.506	38-38-1	0.5	1
52	Dennis Erickson	1995	2004	96	47	46	3	0.505	40-56-0	0.417	1
53	Jon Gruden	1998	2008	185	89	88	8	0.503	100-85-0	0.541	1
54	Doug Marrone	2013	2013	16	8	8	0	0.5	6-10-0	0.375	0
55	Chip Kelly	2013	2013	17	8	8	1	0.5	10-7-0	0.588	0
56	Greg Schiano	2012	2013	32	16	16	0	0.5	11-21-0	0.344	0
57	David Shula	1992	1996	71	35	35	1	0.5	19-52-0	0.268	0
58	Ken Whisenhunt	2007	2012	102	50	50	2	0.5	49-53-0	0.48	0
59	Mike Tomlin	2007	2013	120	59	59	2	0.5	76-44-0	0.633	0
60	Marvin Lewis	2003	2013	181	86	86	9	0.5	90-90-1	0.5	0
61	Don Shula	1978	1995	300	148	148	4	0.5	183-116-1	0.612	0
62	Bud Grant	1978	1985	109	54	55	0	0.495	52-56-1	0.482	-1
63	Romeo Crennel	2005	2012	83	40	41	2	0.494	28-55-0	0.337	-1
64	Mike Tice	2001	2005	67	33	34	0	0.493	33-34-0	0.493	-1
65	John Mackovic	1983	1986	65	32	33	0	0.492	30-35-0	0.462	-1
66	June Jones	1994	1998	59	28	29	2	0.491	22-37-0	0.373	-1
67	Leslie Frazier	2010	2013	55	26	27	2	0.491	21-33-1	0.391	-1
68	Mike Sherman	2000	2005	102	48	50	4	0.49	59-43-0	0.578	-2
69	Eric Mangini	2006	2010	81	39	41	1	0.488	33-48-0	0.407	-2
70	Ray Rhodes	1995	1999	83	39	41	3	0.488	38-44-1	0.464	-2
71	Tony Sparano	2008	2011	62	30	32	0	0.484	29-33-0	0.468	-2
72	Darryl Rogers	1985	1988	58	28	30	0	0.483	18-40-0	0.31	-2
73	Jack Del Rio	2003	2011	142	68	71	3	0.489	69-73-0	0.486	-3
74	Jim Haslett	2000	2008	110	53	56	1	0.486	48-62-0	0.436	-3
75	Art Shell	1989	2006	113	53	56	4	0.486	58-55-0	0.513	-3
76	Dan Henning	1983	1991	112	52	55	5	0.486	38-73-1	0.344	-3
77	Monte Clark	1978	1984	107	50	53	4	0.485	43-63-1	0.407	-3
78	Rich Kotite	1991	1996	98	47	50	1	0.485	41-57-0	0.418	-3
79	Joe Bugel	1990	1997	80	38	41	1	0.481	24-56-0	0.3	-3
80	Jason Garrett	2010	2013	56	26	29	1	0.473	29-27-0	0.518	-3
81	Herman Edwards	2001	2008	134	62	66	6	0.484	56-78-0	0.418	-4
82	Gene Stallings	1986	1989	58	27	31	0	0.466	23-34-1	0.405	-4
83	Gus Bradley	2013	2013	16	6	10	0	0.375	4-12-0	0.25	-4
84	Rob Chudzinski	2013	2013	16	6	10	0	0.375	4-12-0	0.25	-4
85	Dennis Green	1992	2006	219	105	110	4	0.488	117-102-0	0.534	-5
86	Lovie Smith	2004	2012	150	70	75	5	0.483	84-66-0	0.56	-5
87	Jerry Glanville	1985	1993	136	64	69	3	0.481	63-73-0	0.463	-5
88	Gary Kubiak	2006	2013	129	60	65	4	0.48	63-66-0	0.488	-5
89	Jerry Burns	1986	1991	101	48	53	0	0.475	55-46-0	0.545	-5
90	Bart Starr	1978	1983	91	41	46	4	0.471	40-48-3	0.456	-5
91	Chan Gailey	1998	2012	82	37	42	3	0.468	34-48-0	0.415	-5
92	Tom Landry	1978	1988	182	86	92	4	0.483	108-74-0	0.593	-6
93	John Robinson	1983	1991	153	72	78	3	0.48	79-74-0	0.516	-6
94	Jim Schwartz	2009	2013	81	36	42	3	0.462	29-52-0	0.358	-6
95	Mike Nolan	2005	2008	55	24	30	1	0.444	18-37-0	0.327	-6
96	Mike Munchak	2011	2013	48	19	25	4	0.432	22-26-0	0.458	-6
97	Dennis Allen	2012	2013	32	13	19	0	0.406	8-24-0	0.25	-6
98	Marc Trestman	2013	2013	16	4	10	2	0.286	8-8-0	0.5	-6
99	Jim Fassel	1997	2003	117	53	60	4	0.469	60-56-1	0.517	-7
100	Leeman Bennett	1978	1986	109	48	55	6	0.466	44-65-0	0.404	-7
101	Sam Rutigliano	1978	1984	99	45	52	2	0.464	47-52-0	0.475	-7
102	Brad Childress	2006	2010	77	33	40	4	0.452	40-37-0	0.519	-7
103	Vince Tobin	1996	2000	73	32	39	2	0.451	29-44-0	0.397	-7
104	Jim Mora	2004	2009	66	29	36	1	0.446	32-34-0	0.485	-7
105	Mike Shanahan	1988	2013	322	152	160	10	0.487	178-144-0	0.553	-8
106	Wade Phillips	1985	2013	152	69	77	6	0.473	83-69-0	0.546	-8
107	Don Coryell	1978	1986	132	60	68	4	0.469	72-60-0	0.545	-8
108	Ron Meyer	1982	1991	106	49	57	0	0.462	54-52-0	0.509	-8
109	Marion Campbell	1983	1989	90	40	48	2	0.455	28-61-1	0.317	-8
110	Ray Malavasi	1978	1982	78	32	41	5	0.438	42-36-0	0.538	-9
111	Barry Switzer	1994	1997	71	30	39	2	0.435	45-26-0	0.634	-9
112	Norv Turner	1994	2012	245	116	126	3	0.479	118-126-1	0.484	-10
113	Sam Wyche	1984	1995	196	92	102	2	0.474	87-109-0	0.444	-10
114	Ted Marchibroda	1978	1998	147	66	76	5	0.465	58-88-1	0.398	-10
115	Dave McGinnis	2000	2003	57	23	33	1	0.411	17-40-0	0.298	-10
116	Jim Hanifan	1980	1989	94	40	53	1	0.43	39-54-1	0.42	-13
117	Steve Mariucci	1997	2005	146	63	77	6	0.45	75-71-0	0.514	-14
118	Bruce Coslet	1990	2000	125	52	66	7	0.441	47-78-0	0.376	-14
119	Lindy Infante	1988	1997	97	41	55	1	0.427	36-61-0	0.371	-14
120	Mike Martz	2000	2005	92	37	52	3	0.416	56-36-0	0.609	-15
121	Joe Walton	1983	1989	114	48	64	2	0.429	54-59-1	0.478	-16
122	Bum Phillips	1978	1985	124	50	67	7	0.427	63-61-0	0.508	-17

As always, the table is fully sortable and searchable. For example, if you double click the “ATS Win%” column and then double click the “Last Yr” column, the table will sort by ATS winning percentages for men who were active in 2013. Using that methodology, Arizona head coach Bruce Arians jumps to the top of the list, courtesy of a an excellent 17-7-4 record against the spread (which includes his time as the interim head coach of the Colts in 2012). That’s an amazing run for Arians, and I’ve been a fan of his work, boneheaded decisions aside.

So is Belichick the greatest head coach against the spread? It’s always challenging comparing records of teams or coaches with wildly disparate numbers of games. For example, Belichick’s 0.562 winning percentage is incredible over 332 games, but how does that compare to Jim Harbaugh having a 63% rate over 56 games? Frankly, there’s no perfect answer.

Neil has written that you can add a certain number of wins and losses to a team’s record to get their true winning percentage. What’s nice about this feature is that it is that you can use it at any point in the season; the dummy games just make up a smaller percentage of the formula as more real games are included.

So, for example, to make Belichick and Harbaugh have the same ATS winning percentage, you would need to add 46 wins and 46 losses to each of their records. That would give Harbaugh 80 covers and 66 losses (0.548) and Belichick 228 covers and 188 losses (0.548). Of course, I don’t actually know what the “right” number of games of .500-level play one would need to include, but I think the break-even point of 92 games helps to frame the discussion.

For say, Arians compared to Belichick, you need to add 38 wins and 38 losses. For Bill Walsh, it’s 136 wins and 136 losses. Reasonable people can disagree, but I’d probably lean towards arguing that Walsh’s ATS record is more impressive than Belichick’s, while it’s hard to get a sense on how to compare Belichick and Harbaugh.

Dearly beloved Bum Phillips winds up in last place on this list using the “wins minus losses” formula, although Mike Martz could give him a run depending on how you adjust for games played. The Ryan father/son combo both check in as above-average against-the-spread, with Buddy Ryan being one of 14 men on the list to have a winning record against-the-spread and a losing record in general. His son, Rex Ryan, has managed to be slightly above average in both ATS record and general record, although he’s been slightly above average in the least boring way imaginable. As for our old friend, Marty Schottenheimer? His career is viewed very favorably under this formula, and he is the only coach in the top 8 not to win a Super Bowl.

For newer readers of the site, be sure to check out:

The Schottenheimer Index, which ranks head coaches based on their postseason wins relative to the Vegas points spread. Belichick ranks 6th (before 2013), Joe Gibbs ranks 1st, and well, Schottenheimer is last.
The Dungy Index, which looked at wins over expectation based on pre-season expectations. Dungy, Belichick, and Schottenheimer rank in the top six, with Don Shula ranking first.
Records of Great Head Coaches Against Each Other, one of the few areas where Belichick has struggled. He has a career 30-38 record against the other coaches identified in that post, highlighted by a 1-5 record against Tom Coughlin (and a 3-3 record against Schottenheimer).
This post on wins with different quarterbacks; come for the super cool infographic, stay for the football conclusions.

References[+]

References
↑1	My numbers differ slightly from Silver’s, although that’s not surprising. There is always some variation in point spread data, which is, of course, not official.
↑2	When calculating regular winning percentage, we treat ties as half-wins and half-losses. In his article, Silver excluded ties from calculating ATS winning percentages. I don’t know what’s customary, but Silver’s method makes sense: in the event of a “push” all money is simply returns.

Tagged as: Bill Belichick

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