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Farewell to one of the greats

Farewell to one of the greats

Detroit Lions superstar wide receiver Calvin Johnson has likely retired. He had a pretty incredible six-year peak: Megatron gained 8,548 receiving yards in his last six years, the most by any player during their age 25-30 seasons. I don’t think there’s much of a debate that Johnson is a Hall of Famer, although I do think he’s not quite an inner circle member of the Hall.

The big reason for that is Johnson’s numbers have always been inflated by playing on a pass-happy team.  I’ve looked at this before, but (a) those numbers are now two years stale and (b) I want to use a different methodology today. So here’s what I did:

1) Calculate the number of pass attempts per game for each team in every season.

2) For the top 200 players, I then calculated the number of career games for that player.

3) Then, in each season, weight the number of team pass attempts per game by the percentage of games that player played relative to his entire career. For example, Johnson played 11.9% of his career games in 2012, and that year, the Lions threw 46.3 pass attempts per game. Therefore, for Johnson’s career, 46.3 pass attempts per game will be given a weight of 11.9%. Do this for every season of each player’s career, and you will derive the average pass attempts per game for that player.

By this methodology, Megatron has been on the 2nd-most pass-happy offenses among these 200 players. The only player ahead of him is Marques Colston, who ranked 49th in career receiving yards despite never making the Pro Bowl in any season.

RkReceiverFirst YrLast YrGRec YdsAtt/GPass Ratio
1Marques Colston20062015146975939.9117.3%
2Calvin Johnson200720151351161938.9113.8%
3Julio Jones2011201565620138.7110.8%
4Kellen Winslow19791987109674137.9120.5%
5Demaryius Thomas2010201585662136.9105.6%
6Wes Welker20052015160992436.4108.3%
7Larry Fitzgerald200420151861336636.4108.5%
8Charley Hennigan1960196695682336.4113%
9Reggie Wayne200120142111434536.3109.3%
10Pierre Garcon20082015116602735.8104.6%
11Mark Duper19831992144886935.7113.7%
12Torry Holt199920091731338235.7109.1%
13Mark Clayton19831993158897435.7113%
14Haywood Jeffires19871996132633435.7111.8%
15Wes Chandler19781988150896635.6115.3%
16Antonio Brown2010201586709335.6102.1%
17Dez Bryant2010201584582535.5102.3%
18Donald Driver199920122051013735.4107.5%
19James Jones20072015136586135.4103.6%
20Sammy White19761985128640035.4121.1%
21Jeremy Maclin2009201590585935.3102.6%
22Isaac Bruce199420092231520835.2106.9%
23Deion Branch20022012140664435.1106.1%
24Troy Brown19932006182636635.1106.6%
25DeSean Jackson20082015112781435.1102.8%
26Marty Booker19992009157670335.0106.9%
27Greg Jennings20062015143829135.0103.3%
28Jeremy Shockey20022011136614334.8106%
29Ernest Givins19861995147821534.8109.8%
30Sterling Sharpe19881994112813434.8110.5%
31Larry Centers19912003192679734.8106.1%
32Dwight Clark19791987134675034.7110.9%
33Jake Reed19922002154699934.7105.2%
34Roddy White200520151711086334.6102.3%
35Marvin Harrison199620081901458034.6105.9%
36Webster Slaughter19861998162811134.5107.7%
37Antonio Freeman19952003132725134.5104.1%
38Chad Johnson200120111661105934.4104.8%
39T.J. Houshmandzadeh20012011144723734.4104.7%
40Frank Sanders19952003136674934.4103.8%
41Jordy Nelson20082014105610934.4101%
42Derrick Alexander19942002126697134.2103%
43Tony Gonzalez199720132701512734.2103.2%
44Jerry Rice198520043032289534.2105.7%
45Anquan Boldin200320151861319534.0101.7%
46Brandon Marshall200620151521127334.0100.1%
47Cris Carter198720022341389934.0104.6%
48Darnay Scott19942002124619334.0101.7%
49Terry Glenn19962006136882333.9103.6%
50Jason Witten200320152071121533.9101.3%
51Roy Williams20042011115571533.9103.4%
52Bobby Engram19962009176775133.8103.1%
53Vance Johnson19851995128569533.8106.4%
54Mike Quick19821990101646433.8106.1%
55Ricky Sanders19861995134647733.8106.6%
56Marshall Faulk19942005176687533.8102.5%
57Lionel Taylor19601968113719533.7105.9%
58Mike Wallace20092015111630733.697.4%
59Charlie Joiner196919862391214633.6116.2%
60Rob Moore19901999153936833.6103.6%
61Keyshawn Johnson199620061671057133.6102.6%
62Jeff Graham19912001160817233.5102.4%
63Joe Horn19962007163874433.5102.3%
64Michael Haynes19881997147658833.5104.1%
65Ike Hilliard19972008161639733.5102.6%
66A.J. Green2011201576617133.595.7%
67Tony Martin19902001177906533.4103.2%
68Amani Toomer19962008190949733.4102.1%
69Anthony Miller19881997155914833.3103.6%
70Randy Moss199820122181529233.3101.2%
71Shawn Jefferson19912003195702333.3101.9%
72Gary Clark198519951671085633.3104.1%
73Wayne Chrebet19952005152736533.3100.7%
74Andre Rison198920001861020533.3102.8%
75Terrell Owens199620102191593433.2101.3%
76Art Powell19601968105804633.2103.5%
77Ozzie Newsome19781990198798033.2107.4%
78Andre Johnson200320151851410033.298.8%
79Curtis Conway19932004167823033.1100.3%
80Irving Fryar198420002551278533.0102.1%
81Jessie Hester19851995147585033.0103.4%
82Shannon Sharpe199020032041006032.9101.6%
83Darrell Jackson20002008123713232.8100.7%
84Ricky Proehl19902006244887832.8101.3%
85Johnnie Morton19942005182871932.899.3%
86Keenan McCardell199220072091137332.899.5%
87Antonio Gates200320151901064432.897.8%
88Heath Miller20052015168656932.796.7%
89Carl Pickens19922000129712932.799.3%
90Dwayne Bowe20072015125720832.695.8%
91Brandon Lloyd20032014142598932.698.1%
92Steve Jordan19821994176630732.5103%
93Eddie Kennison19962007176834532.599.4%
94Nate Washington20062015158695432.595.7%
95Rod Smith199520061831138932.598.7%
96Stephone Paige19831991125634132.5102.5%
97Vincent Jackson20052015150890732.495.9%
98Santonio Holmes20062014112603032.496.8%
99Jabar Gaffney20022012158569032.498.2%
100Terance Mathis19902002206880932.399.3%
101Al Toon19851992107660532.3102.6%
102Greg Olsen20072015142629232.394.7%
103John Jefferson19781985102571432.3106.6%
104Ahmad Rashad19721982139683132.2116.4%
105Santana Moss200120141971028332.296.6%
106Art Monk198019952241272132.2101.7%
107Steve Watson19791987126611232.2102.6%
108Drew Hill19791993211983132.1102.8%
109Carlos Carson19801989126637232.0100.9%
110Joey Galloway199520101981095031.996.9%
111Jerricho Cotchery20042015175662331.994.7%
112Jimmy Smith199520051711228731.996.7%
113Mark Carrier19871998177876331.899.1%
114Chris Chambers20012010153764831.897.3%
115Plaxico Burress20002012148849931.896.8%
116Laveranues Coles20002009153860931.797.3%
117Todd Christensen19811988108587231.799.6%
118Ed McCaffrey19912003185742231.796.7%
119Eric Moulds19962007186999531.796.8%
120Derrick Mason199720112301206131.796.7%
121Sean Dawkins19932001140629131.795.8%
122Muhsin Muhammad199620092021143831.696.6%
123Anthony Carter19851994137773331.5100%
124Roy Green19791992175896531.4100.4%
125Herman Moore19912001145917431.495.8%
126Andre Reed198520002341319831.497.5%
127Bill Brooks19861996169800131.497.9%
128Todd Heap20012012145586931.395.4%
129Tim Brown198820042551493431.396.4%
130Tony Hill19771986141798831.2103.7%
131Ronnie Harmon19861997181607631.297.1%
132Steve Smith200120152051393231.293%
133Brian Blades19881998156762031.196.6%
134Quinn Early19881999179644831.196.1%
135Steve Largent197619892001308931.1103.4%
136Michael Irvin198819991591190431.096.4%
137J.T. Smith19791990160697431.098.7%
138Cris Collinsworth19811988107669830.997.1%
139Freddie Solomon19751985151584630.8104.2%
140Don Maynard195819731861183430.8102.3%
141James Lofton197819932331400430.799%
142Henry Ellard198319982281377730.695.5%
143Wesley Walker19771989154830630.6100.4%
144Vernon Davis20062015148584130.489.7%
145Brett Perriman19881997153658930.394.2%
146Pat Tilley19761986147700530.3102.6%
147Hines Ward199820112171208330.291.8%
148Eddie Brown19851991102613430.094.5%
149Reggie Rucker19701981159706529.8109.6%
150Eric Martin19851994153816129.793.9%
151Lance Alworth196219721371026629.5100.2%
152Henry Marshall19761987165654529.398%
153Lee Evans20042011118600829.289.1%
154Harold Carmichael19711984182898529.1105.4%
155Gary Garrison19661977134753829.1105.4%
156Del Shofner19581967113647029.1106.2%
157Lenny Moore19561967143603929.1108.8%
158Charley Taylor19641977165911029.0107.7%
159Isaac Curtis19731984167710129.0101.6%
160Sonny Randle19591968120599628.9104.9%
161Alfred Jenkins19751983110626728.899.2%
162Louis Lipps19841992110601928.790.9%
163Jackie Smith19631977198791828.6106.4%
164Billy Howton19521963142845928.6107.4%
165Tommy McDonald19571968152841028.5104.7%
166Raymond Berry19551967154927528.4106.8%
167Nat Moore19741986183754628.495.6%
168Mel Gray19711982145664428.3103.9%
169Jimmy Orr19581970149791428.2103.1%
170Bobby Joe Conrad19591969144590228.2102.5%
171John Gilliam19671977149705628.2106.3%
172Drew Pearson19731983156782228.2100.5%
173Stanley Morgan197719901961071628.192.4%
174Bobby Mitchell19581968148795428.0101.7%
175Fred Biletnikoff19651978190897428.0101.7%
176Cliff Branch19721984179868527.999.3%
177Elroy Hirsch19461957127702927.9109%
178Gene Washington19691979140685627.9105.4%
179Roy Jefferson19651976162753927.8103.7%
180John Stallworth19741987165872327.693.8%
181Pete Retzlaff19561966132741227.6103.1%
182Haven Moses19681981199809127.6100.8%
183Red Phillips19581967119604427.5100.2%
184Riley Odoms19721983153575527.499.8%
185Jack Snow19651975150601227.3101.3%
186Willie Gault19831993170663527.386.6%
187Mike Ditka19611972158581227.299.7%
188Gail Cogdill19601970122569627.197.9%
189Frank Lewis19711983155672427.096.7%
190Ken Burrough19701981156710226.9100.8%
191Bob Hayes19651975132741426.598.5%
192Harold Jackson196919832051037226.496%
193Billy Wilson19511960100590226.399.2%
194Otis Taylor19651974129730625.089.5%
195Max McGee19541967148634624.690.5%
196Paul Warfield19641977157856523.788.7%
197Carroll Dale19601973189827723.687.1%
198Don Hutson19351945116799123.0124.4%
199Boyd Dowler19591971162727022.983.6%
200Dante Lavelli19461956123648822.287.9%

If we sort by pass ratio, Don Hutson jumps to the top of the list. That may be the one example, though, where he was actually causing his teams to pass more: every team was a run-oriented team during Hutson’s time, until he was so effective he caused the Packers to pass more frequently.

Sammy White and Ahmad Rashad played on the late ’70s/early ’80s Vikings teams that threw a ton. From 1976 to 1982, the Vikings threw 3,605 passes, over 25% more than the average team. Kellen Winslow, Charlie Joiner, and Wes Chandler were on the Chargers during that same era, and of course San Diego was super pass-happy, too. After those players and Colston, you get to Johnson.

On the other side of the ledger, Football Perspective heartthrob Steve Smith played on teams that passed only 93% of the time, putting him near the bottom of the list. Hines Ward will get overrated because he was a Steeler, but he gets underrated by some because he played on run-heavy teams. And, of course, Paul Warfield ranks 196th on the list, whether you sort by raw numbers or era-adjusted ones. But we’ve discussed him already, too.

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