Cam Newton and Modified Completion Percentage

by Chase Stuart on September 27, 2018

Since entering the league in 2011, Cam Newton has been one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL. But you wouldn’t know it if you looked at his completion percentage, which ranks as just the 36th best out of the 40 passers with the most attempts since the start of 2011 through week 3 of 2018.

In the past, I have offered up the idea that, in some instances, it may be appropriate to consider categorizing rushing attempts as equivalent to pass attempts completed to the quarterback. There are a couple of reasons for that. One, a mobile quarterback may scramble while an immobile quarterback would throw a check down to a running back; in other words, the plays are equivalent, but the immobile quarterback will have his completion percentage increased. Two, the perceived benefit to a quarterback with a high completion percentage is lower variability; rushing plays have lower variability, too, so labeling a rushing attempt as a pass to the quarterback helps reflect that.

One issue with this, though, is you need to remove kneels from the data. Thanks to Bryan Frye, we can do that. Let’s look at Newton. Since 2011, he’s completed 2,065 passes out of 3,515 attempts, a 58.7% completion rate. But he also had 783 carries for 4,545 yards (after removing kneels); if you count those as completed passes, his modified completion percentage would be 66.3%. If you want, you can also label his sacks as incomplete pass attempts. That would drop him down to 62.5%.

The table below shows the 40 quarterbacks with the most pass attempts since 2011.

Search:

Player	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Rush	RushY	Mod Cmp%	Sk	Mod Cmp% (Sk)
Drew Brees	3181	4601	69.1%	92	356	69.7%	199	66.9%
Peyton Manning	1443	2170	66.5%	19	12	66.8%	72	64.7%
Robert Griffin	766	1210	63.3%	261	1685	69.8%	123	64.4%
Russell Wilson	1872	2929	63.9%	502	3391	69.2%	262	64.3%
Matt Ryan	2815	4243	66.3%	156	877	67.5%	227	64.2%
Kirk Cousins	1467	2235	65.6%	95	447	67%	115	63.9%
Aaron Rodgers	2227	3400	65.5%	265	1867	68%	249	63.7%
Alex Smith	2079	3195	65.1%	334	2113	68.4%	266	63.6%
Tony Romo	1503	2265	66.4%	54	264	67.1%	142	63.3%
Tyrod Taylor	834	1355	61.5%	284	1882	68.2%	142	62.8%
Ben Roethlisberger	2490	3832	65%	100	494	65.9%	211	62.5%
Cam Newton	2065	3515	58.7%	783	4545	66.3%	262	62.5%
Tom Brady	2697	4195	64.3%	147	461	65.5%	214	62.4%
Philip Rivers	2682	4145	64.7%	100	396	65.5%	243	62%
Marcus Mariota	808	1308	61.8%	140	1005	65.5%	89	61.7%
Ryan Fitzpatrick	1810	2975	60.8%	261	1416	64%	144	61.3%
Andy Dalton	2291	3672	62.4%	243	1158	64.7%	224	61.2%
Carson Wentz	669	1084	61.7%	90	484	64.7%	66	61.2%
Colin Kaepernick	1011	1692	59.8%	328	2351	66.3%	171	61.1%
Derek Carr	1463	2358	62%	81	424	63.3%	96	60.9%
Matthew Stafford	2835	4512	62.8%	182	929	64.3%	264	60.9%
Ryan Tannehill	1707	2711	63%	176	1191	65.2%	219	60.6%
Case Keenum	845	1366	61.9%	68	372	63.7%	76	60.5%
Sam Bradford	1501	2377	63.1%	67	333	64.2%	162	60.2%
Jay Cutler	1689	2713	62.3%	126	904	63.9%	184	60%
Matt Schaub	805	1287	62.5%	23	60	63.2%	70	60%
Jameis Winston	939	1544	60.8%	110	555	63.4%	95	60%
Michael Vick	638	1102	57.9%	194	1505	64.2%	95	59.8%
Joe Flacco	2471	4004	61.7%	126	541	62.9%	216	59.8%
Josh McCown	911	1460	62.4%	93	527	64.6%	134	59.5%
Carson Palmer	1917	3090	62%	67	211	62.8%	180	59.5%
Andrew Luck	1655	2775	59.6%	221	1547	62.6%	161	59.4%
Eli Manning	2573	4174	61.6%	64	279	62.2%	205	59.4%
Nick Foles	887	1468	60.4%	82	402	62.5%	85	59.3%
Blake Bortles	1386	2341	59.2%	213	1539	62.6%	168	58.7%
Matt Cassel	691	1174	58.9%	79	419	61.5%	90	57.3%
Brian Hoyer	811	1368	59.3%	39	127	60.4%	79	57.2%
Josh Freeman	730	1284	56.9%	85	458	59.5%	64	56.9%
Mark Sanchez	821	1414	58.1%	78	262	60.3%	108	56.2%
Blaine Gabbert	806	1442	55.9%	144	661	59.9%	136	55.2%

Consider Newton vs. another former number one overall pick in Sam Bradford. Cam has a 58.7% completion rate, while Sam has a 63.1% rate. But once you include runs, Cam’s modified completion percentage is 66.3%, compared to just 64.2% for Sam, who almost never runs. And if you include sacks, Cam is at 62.5%, vs. 60% for Sam. Newton ranked 36th out of 40 passers in completion percentage but 12th in modified completion percentage (including sacks). Bradford ranked 13th in completion percentage, but drops to 24th in modified completion percentage (including sacks). And Newton even jumps Philip Rivers using this methodology.

What do you think?

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