Cam Newton And Rushing First Downs

by Chase Stuart on September 28, 2018

Building on yesterday’s post, one reason the average football fan undervalues quarterback running is because yards per carry for quarterbacks is misleading. It’s natural to want to compare a quarterback’s yards per pass average to his yards per rush attempt average; in almost all cases, the Y/A number will be higher, so it doesn’t feel like having 30 pass attempts and 5 runs is better than 35 pass attempts.

But yards per carry also undersells the value of the average quarterback run. Russell Wilson, for example, has 585 career runs for 3,296 yards, a 5.63 average. But 84 of his career rushing attempts were actually kneel downs that lost 95 yards; remove those, and Wilson’s yards per carry average jumps to 6.77. Wilson has also picked up a first down on 39% of his runs, which is extremely valuable, as no offense averages such a high first down rate. By comparison, Wilson has averaged 7.8 yards per pass attempt and a 37% first down rate on pass attempts, which drops to 6.65 and 34% once you include sacks. ^[1]I note that it gets into a gray area here: if we include scrambles as runs, but only include sacks in the pass attempts column, we are biasing things in the direction of runs.

There’s no doubt that Wilson adds a lot of value as a runner, but Cam Newton adds even more. Remove kneels, and Cam has 783 career rushing attempts for 4,545 rushing yards, a 5.80 YPC average. But where he really shines is in first down rate: Newton has picked up a first down on a whopping 44% of all rushing plays since entering the NFL. That’s higher than any running back on rushing plays or any quarterback on passing plays! Over a long period, a great quarterback will top out at around 40-41% of pass attempts (excluding sacks) going for first downs; for Newton to convert 44% of his rushing plays into first downs is remarkable, and shows the value he has added as a runner.

Adding in his rushing first downs brings Newton’s overall first down rate up from 33%, which is right around average, to 35%, which is solidly above average.

The table below shows Newton, Wilson, and the 48 running backs with the most carries since 2011. It is sorted by first down rate.

Rk	Player	Rush	Yd	YPC	1D	1D Rt
1	Cam Newton	783	4545	5.8	344	43.9%
2	Russell Wilson	501	3391	6.77	195	38.9%
3	Ezekiel Elliott	612	2888	4.72	164	26.8%
4	Devonta Freeman	759	3284	4.33	203	26.7%
5	Jordan Howard	581	2613	4.5	151	26%
6	Jamaal Charles	914	4612	5.05	231	25.3%
7	Le'Veon Bell	1229	5336	4.34	296	24.1%
8	Ahmad Bradshaw	554	2370	4.28	133	24%
9	DeMarco Murray	1604	7174	4.47	383	23.9%
10	Stevan Ridley	718	3042	4.24	170	23.7%
11	LeSean McCoy	1839	8436	4.59	434	23.6%
12	Mark Ingram	1183	5362	4.53	277	23.4%
13	Marshawn Lynch	1547	6835	4.42	361	23.3%
14	Ryan Mathews	1026	4583	4.47	234	22.8%
15	Jeremy Hill	708	2898	4.09	161	22.7%
16	Bilal Powell	742	3242	4.37	168	22.6%
17	Fred Jackson	658	2886	4.39	147	22.3%
18	C.J. Anderson	705	3126	4.43	157	22.3%
19	Melvin Gordon	761	2915	3.83	168	22.1%
20	Alfred Morris	1302	5656	4.34	286	22%
21	Justin Forsett	588	2748	4.67	129	21.9%
22	Joique Bell	564	2241	3.97	123	21.8%
23	Jonathan Stewart	1122	4596	4.1	244	21.7%
24	LeGarrette Blount	1168	4964	4.25	254	21.7%
25	Arian Foster	1095	4654	4.25	237	21.6%
26	Adrian Peterson	1432	6730	4.7	309	21.6%
27	James Starks	589	2405	4.08	127	21.6%
28	Carlos Hyde	716	2932	4.09	154	21.5%
29	Todd Gurley	865	3634	4.2	186	21.5%
30	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	679	2517	3.71	146	21.5%
31	Eddie Lacy	857	3614	4.22	184	21.5%
32	Latavius Murray	778	3184	4.09	164	21.1%
33	Isaiah Crowell	775	3289	4.24	162	20.9%
34	DeAngelo Williams	889	3885	4.37	185	20.8%
35	Matt Forte	1545	6560	4.25	320	20.7%
36	Giovani Bernard	707	2986	4.22	146	20.7%
37	Maurice Jones-Drew	706	2919	4.13	145	20.5%
38	Lamar Miller	1188	5067	4.27	243	20.5%
39	Frank Gore	1879	7710	4.1	378	20.1%
40	Rashad Jennings	807	3111	3.86	161	20%
41	Chris Ivory	1000	4202	4.2	199	19.9%
42	C.J. Spiller	638	3168	4.97	126	19.7%
43	Shonn Greene	700	2804	4.01	136	19.4%
44	Doug Martin	1170	4720	4.03	223	19.1%
45	Reggie Bush	762	3400	4.46	145	19%
46	Steven Jackson	886	3490	3.94	168	19%
47	Darren McFadden	862	3408	3.95	155	18%
48	Ray Rice	762	3167	4.16	134	17.6%
49	Chris Johnson	1238	5053	4.08	215	17.4%
50	Trent Richardson	614	2032	3.31	93	15.1%

What formula would you create to help properly capture a quarterback’s rushing value?

References[+]

References
↑1	I note that it gets into a gray area here: if we include scrambles as runs, but only include sacks in the pass attempts column, we are biasing things in the direction of runs.

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