I don’t care about any of the nonsense with Cam Newton. Instead, take a look at his 2011 and 2012 stat lines:

                                                                                            
Year   GS  QBrec Cmp Att Cmp%  Yds TD TD% Int Int% Y/A  AY/A Y/C  Yd/G Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A Sk% Rsh Yds TD  YPC Y/G  C/G
2011   16 6-10-0 310 517 60.0 4051 21 4.1  17  3.3 7.8  7.2 13.1 253.2 35 260  6.9   6.2 6.3 126 706 14  5.6 44.1 7.9
2012    6  1-5-0 101 173 58.4 1387  5 2.9   6  3.5 8.0  7.0 13.7 231.2 15 102  6.8   5.9 8.0  46 273  3  5.9 45.5 7.7

His Y/A is actually higher this year (although his sack rate is a little worse), and his rushing yards per game and yards per carry are both slightly up. Obviously the biggest change is that Newton simply isn’t scoring very much — he’s on pace for just 21 touchdowns after scoring 35 last year. But touchdowns are more volatile than metrics like yards per attempt, and tend to rebound quickly when paired with a strong yards per attempt average. Compared to league average, Newton’s only slightly worse in NY/A and ANY/A than he was last year, and he’s still above-average in both statistics. Statistically, he looks fine.

But the eye test certainly says Newton is struggling. And some stats back that up, too. Newton ranks 25th in Total QBR, although he only ranked 17th in that metric a year ago. Perhaps more importantly, the Carolina offense has plummeted to 29th in points per drive so far in 2012 (while ranking 17th and 19th in drive success rate), after ranking 6th in points per drive (and 6th in yards and 5th in DSR) in 2011. So the offense has been quite a bit worse, and significantly worse when it comes to scoring. That sort of matches what the “eye test” tells me.

But as Aaron Schatz pointed out to me, there are some odd splits going on with Newton. Take a look at how Newton’s performed on pass attempts on 1st downs this year:

Quarterbacks on 1st Down Pass Attempts

Player	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	Y/A	Rate
Josh Freeman	39	69	56.5%	762	8	0	2	11	133.8
Cam Newton	54	76	71.1%	766	2	1	5	10.1	106.6
Robert Griffin III	55	78	70.5%	778	3	1	6	10	109.9
Alex Smith	63	83	75.9%	782	5	1	7	9.4	119.7
Russell Wilson	42	61	68.9%	574	3	2	2	9.4	101.4
Drew Brees	55	90	61.1%	764	8	1	3	8.5	113.4
Eli Manning	67	105	63.8%	865	4	3	2	8.2	90.4
Andy Dalton	67	89	75.3%	725	3	2	8	8.1	100.6
Tom Brady	84	127	66.1%	986	5	1	1	7.8	99.4
Matt Ryan	62	97	63.9%	739	6	3	4	7.6	94.8
Ryan Tannehill	40	68	58.8%	516	3	1	3	7.6	91.3
Sam Bradford	47	86	54.7%	646	1	2	2	7.5	73.1
Matt Schaub	51	83	61.4%	619	4	0	4	7.5	100.4
Philip Rivers	58	78	74.4%	570	2	1	4	7.3	97.7
Matthew Stafford	69	107	64.5%	776	1	4	2	7.3	73.6
Joe Flacco	69	108	63.9%	777	3	2	3	7.2	86.8
Ben Roethlisberger	48	78	61.5%	559	2	2	5	7.2	81.1
Mark Sanchez	36	69	52.2%	490	1	1	2	7.1	73.9
Tony Romo	57	79	72.2%	561	5	1	0	7.1	107.6
Peyton Manning	63	88	71.6%	620	6	1	4	7	109.1
Kevin Kolb	34	58	58.6%	406	2	2	5	7	77.2
Jay Cutler	33	61	54.1%	420	4	2	9	6.9	84.1
Carson Palmer	64	105	61%	707	2	1	7	6.7	83.3
Andrew Luck	53	101	52.5%	677	3	4	4	6.7	67.1
Aaron Rodgers	68	99	68.7%	659	8	3	6	6.7	101.4
Blaine Gabbert	30	58	51.7%	382	5	3	5	6.6	79.8
Matt Cassel	31	60	51.7%	394	2	2	6	6.6	69.7
Ryan Fitzpatrick	45	77	58.4%	487	3	3	3	6.3	73.9
Michael Vick	50	94	53.2%	564	2	5	8	6	56.3
Christian Ponder	54	79	68.4%	469	1	0	7	5.9	88
Matt Hasselbeck	36	51	70.6%	301	2	1	3	5.9	90.4
Brandon Weeden	59	106	55.7%	625	5	3	5	5.9	77
Totals	1761	2787	63.2%	20979	119	62	142	7.5	91.1

You don’t need me to tell you that those are fantastic numbers, a big increase relative to 2011 when he completed just 56.5% of his passes, averaged 7.7 Y/A, and had a 70.8 passer rating on 1st downs. So far, so good. But, Newton’s been a disaster on 2nd downs this year:

Quarterbacks on 2nd Down Pass Attempts

Player	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	Y/A	Rate
Carson Palmer	44	70	62.9%	632	3	2	2	9	94.5
Robert Griffin III	44	60	73.3%	500	2	1	7	8.3	102.1
Christian Ponder	55	80	68.8%	650	3	1	4	8.1	100.5
Joe Flacco	50	84	59.5%	671	2	2	6	8	83
Tony Romo	53	78	67.9%	618	3	4	6	7.9	83.2
Peyton Manning	57	84	67.9%	661	4	1	2	7.9	102.3
Matt Schaub	51	77	66.2%	593	4	1	3	7.7	101.3
Matt Ryan	65	86	75.6%	652	5	1	4	7.6	111.2
Eli Manning	64	92	69.6%	702	5	1	2	7.6	105.4
Michael Vick	47	73	64.4%	551	1	2	3	7.5	80.3
Brandon Weeden	50	85	58.8%	609	1	3	2	7.2	70.2
Sam Bradford	53	76	69.7%	548	3	3	6	7.2	87
Aaron Rodgers	70	96	72.9%	687	6	0	11	7.2	113.5
Tom Brady	57	86	66.3%	610	2	1	6	7.1	89.8
Matthew Stafford	57	86	66.3%	598	2	0	6	7	94
Mark Sanchez	42	80	52.5%	561	3	4	3	7	66.7
Andy Dalton	63	95	66.3%	668	6	4	3	7	90.2
Drew Brees	66	105	62.9%	720	5	4	5	6.9	83
Josh Freeman	29	64	45.3%	433	0	4	3	6.8	42
Ryan Tannehill	39	68	57.4%	459	1	2	6	6.8	70.6
Alex Smith	36	61	59%	417	3	1	3	6.8	89.3
Ben Roethlisberger	59	83	71.1%	552	3	1	3	6.7	96.1
Jay Cutler	36	64	56.3%	430	1	2	6	6.7	69.1
Cam Newton	29	54	53.7%	349	0	2	4	6.5	58.3
Andrew Luck	47	82	57.3%	518	2	0	6	6.3	84.3
Philip Rivers	46	73	63%	445	4	2	5	6.1	86.8
Kevin Kolb	39	67	58.2%	401	2	1	11	6	79.3
Russell Wilson	33	55	60%	327	1	4	7	5.9	52.6
Ryan Fitzpatrick	46	74	62.2%	416	7	3	2	5.6	91.9
Matt Cassel	38	66	57.6%	357	1	5	2	5.4	46.1
Matt Hasselbeck	23	53	43.4%	209	1	2	2	3.9	45.2
Totals	1573	2500	62.9%	17474	91	68	151	7	84.4

Newton and Josh Freeman might get compared to each other for other reasons, but both have a lot in common this year. They are the two leaders in yards per completion despite both having terrible completion percentages. Both are throwing the ball downfield frequently, and both have been outstanding on first downs — perhaps when defenses are less prepared for a deep pass? — and terrible on second downs.

But their third down splits are, well… take a look:

Quarterbacks on 3rd Down Pass Attempts

Player	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	Y/A	Rate
Peyton Manning	32	52	61.5%	492	4	2	4	9.5	102.4
Aaron Rodgers	46	68	67.6%	641	5	1	9	9.4	116.1
Ben Roethlisberger	46	71	64.8%	621	5	0	4	8.7	116
Matt Hasselbeck	35	48	72.9%	401	1	1	5	8.4	95.9
Michael Vick	39	63	61.9%	517	5	1	6	8.2	107.7
Philip Rivers	35	58	60.3%	478	4	6	8	8.2	70.1
Jay Cutler	35	59	59.3%	476	2	2	4	8.1	82.3
Matt Cassel	33	49	67.3%	392	2	2	5	8	88.1
Ryan Tannehill	38	60	63.3%	476	0	3	2	7.9	67.1
Drew Brees	42	74	56.8%	572	3	2	4	7.7	83.8
Eli Manning	36	66	54.5%	505	3	3	1	7.7	75.6
Sam Bradford	34	59	57.6%	424	3	1	13	7.2	89.9
Andy Dalton	25	58	43.1%	418	4	4	5	7.2	62.3
Ryan Fitzpatrick	40	66	60.6%	466	4	3	2	7.1	83.3
Matt Schaub	38	62	61.3%	438	2	3	1	7.1	73.2
Tom Brady	44	70	62.9%	493	5	1	6	7	101.7
Tony Romo	37	60	61.7%	414	0	4	3	6.9	54.4
Joe Flacco	30	56	53.6%	388	4	2	9	6.9	84.5
Matt Ryan	33	53	62.3%	365	3	2	5	6.9	85.8
Brandon Weeden	44	78	56.4%	530	3	4	4	6.8	68.9
Andrew Luck	32	65	49.2%	440	2	3	6	6.8	62.3
Cam Newton	17	39	43.6%	261	3	2	6	6.7	70.6
Kevin Kolb	33	55	60%	335	3	0	9	6.1	95.6
Robert Griffin III	31	48	64.6%	289	2	1	3	6	86.2
Mark Sanchez	38	69	55.1%	401	5	2	9	5.8	84.3
Carson Palmer	38	64	59.4%	372	2	1	3	5.8	79.7
Josh Freeman	33	51	64.7%	291	3	1	4	5.7	91.2
Christian Ponder	40	65	61.5%	353	3	5	5	5.4	59.3
Russell Wilson	26	54	48.1%	279	2	1	5	5.2	68.4
Matthew Stafford	36	68	52.9%	341	2	1	2	5	70.8
Alex Smith	27	45	60%	221	1	3	8	4.9	52.2
Blaine Gabbert	29	52	55.8%	225	0	0	5	4.3	66.6
Totals	1171	1992	58.8%	13834	91	71	170	6.9	80.4

Newton has been bad on 3rd downs this year. [Quick FP tip: if you type “New” in each of the above search boxes, you see just Newton’s lines, and can view all three tables without scrolling.] But while his completion percentage is terrible and Freeman’s is very good, note that Newton is averaging a full yard more per attempt.

Perhaps more important than each quarterback’s third down passing numbers above is the next table, which looks at each team’s passing plays on 3rd downs:

Team	G	Plays	ToGo	Yds	TD	FG	1st	1st %	Int	Fum	Sack
CAR	6	45	9.38	4.73	3	0	11	24.4%	2	2	6
WAS	7	54	9.07	6.56	3	0	14	25.9%	1	0	3
JAX	6	66	8.76	3.24	0	0	14	21.2%	0	2	6
CHI	6	63	8.67	7.11	2	0	25	39.7%	2	0	4
OAK	6	67	8.51	5.16	2	0	21	31.3%	1	1	3
MIA	6	62	8.32	7.48	0	0	24	38.7%	3	0	2
KAN	6	69	8.29	6.58	2	0	28	40.6%	3	2	5
NWE	7	76	8.16	6.05	5	0	35	46.1%	1	1	6
ARI	7	89	8.09	3.83	3	0	28	31.5%	2	0	10
DAL	6	64	8.06	6.23	0	0	26	40.6%	4	1	3
PHI	6	69	8.04	7.03	5	0	30	43.5%	1	1	6
BAL	7	67	8.01	5.27	4	0	18	26.9%	2	0	9
TAM	6	55	8	4.85	3	0	13	23.6%	1	1	4
GNB	7	77	7.88	7.78	5	0	33	42.9%	1	1	9
PIT	6	75	7.79	7.87	5	0	38	50.7%	0	0	4
SDG	6	66	7.7	6.45	4	0	26	39.4%	6	3	8
DEN	6	56	7.61	8.25	4	0	25	44.6%	2	2	4
STL	7	72	7.61	4.65	3	0	24	33.3%	1	2	13
CLE	7	82	7.51	6.15	3	0	27	32.9%	4	1	4
TEN	7	84	7.51	6.24	1	0	34	40.5%	1	3	7
CIN	7	63	7.46	6.27	4	0	13	20.6%	4	2	5
IND	6	71	7.38	5.37	2	0	25	35.2%	3	2	6
BUF	7	68	7.26	6.69	4	0	30	44.1%	3	2	2
SFO	7	55	7.22	3.38	1	0	17	30.9%	3	1	8
DET	6	71	7.11	4.73	2	0	24	33.8%	1	0	2
ATL	6	58	7.03	5.52	3	0	27	46.6%	2	1	5
NYJ	7	79	6.94	4.59	5	0	28	35.4%	2	2	9
MIN	7	70	6.9	4.67	3	0	25	35.7%	5	1	5
NOR	6	78	6.82	6.85	3	0	36	46.2%	2	2	4
SEA	7	59	6.81	4.14	2	0	18	30.5%	1	1	5
HOU	7	64	6.77	6.69	2	0	30	46.9%	4	0	1
NYG	7	68	6.38	7.26	3	0	26	38.2%	3	1	2
Totals	208	2162	7.69	5.87	91	0	793	36.7%	71	38	170

Tampa Bay has gained a first down on fewer 3rd down passes than Carolina despite Freeman’s significant edge in completion percentage on third downs. And note how far the Panthers have to go on their average third down pass — more than any other team in the league. Newton is passing in a lot of 3rd and long situations, but give him credit for at least trying to get the first down. On third and 4+, Newton has completed a pass but *not* gained a first down on just 6 plays. Robert Griffin III, Josh Freeman, Brandon Weeden, Blaine Gabbert, and Carson Palmer lead the league in completions on 3rd-and-4+ that do not go for a first down. The only regular quarterbacks with fewer “meaningless completions” than Newton are Drew Brees and Matt Ryan.

I find that interesting, and a good sign for Newton’s outlook (or, at a minimum, a sign that with better coaching, he’d have better numbers).

I said earlier that Newton was bad on 2nd down; let’s break that down a bit. In 2nd-and-long situations (2nd-and-7+), the real knock on Newton seems to be that he’s trying to do too much. He has only 8 completions on 2nd-and-long that did not go for a first down. To put it another way, 65% of his 2nd-and-long completions have gone for a first down, the highest rate in the league. And his 2nd-and-long passes that didn’t go for a first down gained only 1.5 yards per attempt, the lowest rate in the league.

What does all that mean? On 2nd-and-long, Newton is pressing. He’s trying to get the first down on one play, and only if everyone is covered will he essentially throw a meaningless checkdown. On 43 pass plays (41 attempts, 2 sacks) on 2nd-and-long, only six times have the Panthers gained between 3 and 6 yards. Ben Roethlisberger, who is complaining about his dink and dunk offense, has gained between 3 and 6 yards 12 times on 59 such plays (56 attempts, 3 sacks).

We can break the numbers down based on how the pass is designated, too. On 59 pass plays on 2nd-and-long, Roethlisberger was sacked 3 times and the game charters did not add anymore description to the play twice. On the remaining 54 attempts, Roethlisberger’s throw was classified as “short” 50 times and as “deep” 4 times. Newton had 34 “short” throws and 7 deep throws on his 41 pass plays. And Newton isn’t getting much help, either. On his 34 “short” throws, his receivers gained 7+ yards just 13 times, while 25 of Roethlisberger’s “short” throws went for at least seven yards.

Maybe Newton just isn’t accurate on short throws, but I think there’s more to it than that. I said at the top that I don’t really care about the nonsense with Newton, but maybe I should. I think the nonsense is starting to have an effect, and Cam is likely trying to do too much to live up to some very high expectations. He’s been great on first downs, but he tries to do too much on 2nd and 3rd downs. This is something that Alex Smith said he struggled with early in his career:

“[Following Montana and Young] and being a No. 1 draft pick carries its share of pressure and demands,” Smith says. “I do feel like as a young player I was trying to justify myself on every … single … throw. I wanted to throw the great ball every … single … time.

“I don’t know if it necessarily was the quarterback lineage here. But, yeah, it was a little bit. Being a No. 1, too, you have to validate all that stuff. I tried to. I tried to every single time I came out to make a throw.

I’m not a psychiatrist, and I haven’t ever met Newton, but I get the sense that he’s dealing with same of the same issues here, and the data support that theory. I also don’t think Newton is getting a lot of help from his coaching staff or his teammates. They shouldn’t be making things so difficult for him; he needs to have more intermediate routes available to him, more checkdown options, and more players who can make big plays after the catch. Carolina strikes me as a team that could be a lot more effective if they used some dink and dunk; if Ron Rivera and Rob Chudzinski don’t fix the offense, the Panthers would be justified in finding some coaches who can.