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Can The Steelers Pass Rush Lead Them To The Super Bowl?

Over the first 8 weeks of the season, the Pittsburgh Steelers had just 8 sacks.  That was the fewest in the NFL, and the corresponding 2.84% sack rate was also the worst in the league.

Since then, things have changed pretty significantly.  Pittsburgh has 36 sacks, most in the league since the start of week 9, five more than any other team in the NFL.  [1]Notably, the Giants are 2nd in sacks over that period, with 31; meanwhile, the Giants had the second-worst sack rate, at 2.85%, and second fewest sacks, with 8, over the first eight weeks.  And only Arizona’s defense (8.94%) has a higher sack rate than Pittsburgh’s 8.53% since then.

Here’s the sack rate for the Steelers defense in each game this season: in a black horizontal line, I’ve shown the league average sack rate.

We all know that Tom Brady has had his greatest postseason struggles when facing pressure. Here’s what I wrote last year:

As usual, the case to beating the Patriots starts with getting pressure on Brady. There’s good reason for that: in the Brady era, New England has lost as a favorite in the postseason five times, and the opposing team’s pass rush was a factor in each game. On average, Brady was sacked three times and was hit 6.8 times in those games. Getting to Brady is much easier said than done, and it’s hardly a guarantee of victory, but it does seem to be the most recognizable path to success for Denver.

Patriots under pressure

Year 	Opp    Pts 	  Cmp	 Att    Yds 	TD 	Int   Sacks  QB Hits
2012 	BAL     13 	  29 	  54    320 	1 	 2 	    0 	  7
2011 	NYG     17 	  27 	  41    266 	2 	 1 	    2 	  8
2010 	NYJ     21 	  29 	  45    259 	2 	 1 	    5     7
2009 	BAL     14 	  23 	  42    132 	2 	 3 	    3 	  3
2007 	NYG     14 	  29 	  48    229 	1 	 0   	5 	  9
Avg      —      15.8  27.4    46.0  241.2 	1.6  1.4 	3.0   6.8

That came before the Broncos battered and bruised Brady in the AFC Championship Game last season. There, Denver’s defense had 3 sacks and 17(!!) quarterbacks hits on Brady, with 7 hits coming from DeMarcus Ware, and 4 hits and 2.5 sacks coming from Von Miller. Can the Steelers replicate that tomorrow? James Harrison is younger than Brady, but at 38, not by much: but the edge rusher has turned back the clock, with 7.5 sacks in his last 10 games. But it’s not just Harrison: Bud Dupree, who completely obliterated the combine two years ago, has 5 sacks in his last 6 games, while Stephon Tuitt has 16 quarterback hits in 16 games this year.

References

References
1 Notably, the Giants are 2nd in sacks over that period, with 31; meanwhile, the Giants had the second-worst sack rate, at 2.85%, and second fewest sacks, with 8, over the first eight weeks.
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