Career Ratings For the Sam Bradford/Jay Schroeder Index Posts

by Chase Stuart on May 23, 2017

Two pretty accurate passers.

Last week, I published two posts on quarterbacks based on their completion percentage and yards per completion averages, relative to league average. The Sam Bradford Index post looks at quarterbacks with high completion percentages and low yards/completion averages, while the Jay Schroeder Index looks at the reverse. Freddy Alejandro made a request for career ratings in the comments, and with the help of Bryan Frye’s formula, I went ahead and generated those ratings.

Note that when calculating single-season standard deviations in both completion percentage and yards per completion, I used two modifications from last week’s posts. One, I used a three-year rolling average, and two, I used all passers (and not just qualifying passers) to calculate standard deviations. These combinations had the effect of making the standard deviations greater, which makes the Z-Scores smaller. As a result, the numbers are more compressed than they were last week, in addition to the fact that career ratings always bring less extreme ratings than a list of single-season leaders.

The most extreme rating belongs to Joe Montana, who for his career was 1.23 standard deviations above average in completion percentage. That’s the second-best rating, behind only Steve Young: each passer led the NFL in completion percentage five different times. From 1980 to 1997, 49ers passers led the league in completion percentage 10 times, with the rest of the league winning just eight crowns.

The difference between Young and Montana: Young had a slightly above-average yards per completion average for his career, while Montana was slightly below-average. ^[1]Despite Montana finishing with a higher Yd/Cmp average for his career, that is a function of era; Montana never finished higher than 10th in that metric, while Young had three top-5 finishes and … Continue reading And remember, this metric is calculated by taking each passer’s Z-Score in completion percentage and then subtracting their Z-Score in yards/completion, so a negative number in the latter category leads to a higher rating. After all, we are trying to identify the passers who had the highest completion percentages with the lowest yards per completion averages.

Note that this is a measure of style, not quality. Finishing high or low on this list is neither inherently good or bad. Joining Montana in the top 3 is Chad Pennington, although most of the top quarterbacks are Hall of Famers. Take a look:

Rk	Quarterback	First Yr	Last Yr	Att	Z-Score Cmp%	Z-Score Yd/Cmp	Total
1	Joe Montana	1979	1994	5391	1.23	-0.28	1.51
2	Sammy Baugh	1937	1952	2995	1.14	-0.24	1.38
3	Chad Pennington	2000	2010	2471	1.09	-0.28	1.37
4	Drew Brees	2001	2016	8758	1.10	-0.10	1.20
5	Sonny Jurgensen	1957	1974	4262	1.00	-0.19	1.19
6	Bart Starr	1956	1971	3149	1.07	-0.12	1.18
7	Steve Young	1985	1999	4149	1.35	0.23	1.12
8	Ken Stabler	1970	1984	3793	0.92	-0.17	1.09
9	Troy Aikman	1989	2000	4715	0.78	-0.30	1.07
10	Frankie Albert	1946	1952	1564	0.70	-0.36	1.06
11	Fran Tarkenton	1961	1978	6467	0.86	-0.20	1.06
12	Len Dawson	1957	1975	3741	0.95	-0.08	1.03
13	John Brodie	1957	1973	4491	0.68	-0.32	1.01
14	Ken Anderson	1971	1986	4475	0.86	-0.12	0.99
15	Y.A. Tittle	1948	1964	4395	0.82	-0.16	0.98
16	Brad Johnson	1994	2008	4326	0.59	-0.39	0.98
17	Bernie Kosar	1985	1996	3365	0.58	-0.39	0.97
18	Brian Griese	1998	2008	2796	0.66	-0.24	0.90
19	Peyton Manning	1998	2015	9380	0.99	0.11	0.89
20	Frank Tripucka	1949	1963	1745	0.17	-0.72	0.89
21	Billy Wade	1954	1966	2523	0.62	-0.25	0.87
22	Milt Plum	1957	1969	2419	0.58	-0.28	0.86
23	Bill Munson	1964	1979	1982	0.43	-0.41	0.84
24	Sam Bradford	2010	2016	2844	0.17	-0.64	0.82
25	Ken O'Brien	1984	1993	3602	0.49	-0.32	0.80
26	Danny White	1976	1988	2950	0.69	-0.08	0.77
27	Kurt Warner	1998	2009	4070	1.10	0.33	0.77
28	Matt Ryan	2008	2016	5064	0.69	-0.02	0.71
29	Brett Favre	1991	2010	10169	0.58	-0.10	0.68
30	Tony Eason	1983	1990	1564	0.47	-0.20	0.67
31	Bobby Hebert	1985	1996	3121	0.44	-0.21	0.65
32	Bob Griese	1967	1980	3429	0.64	-0.01	0.65
33	Rich Gannon	1987	2004	4206	0.43	-0.21	0.64
34	Archie Manning	1971	1984	3642	0.31	-0.31	0.61
35	Otto Graham	1946	1955	2626	1.01	0.40	0.61
36	Johnny Unitas	1956	1973	5186	0.63	0.04	0.59
37	Jim Harbaugh	1987	2000	3918	0.31	-0.28	0.59
38	Tim Couch	1999	2003	1714	0.23	-0.35	0.58
39	Greg Landry	1968	1984	2300	0.46	-0.11	0.57
40	Jeff Garcia	1999	2008	3676	0.45	-0.11	0.57
41	Roman Gabriel	1962	1977	4498	0.24	-0.30	0.53
42	Steve DeBerg	1978	1998	5024	0.28	-0.25	0.53
43	Dan Fouts	1973	1987	5604	0.69	0.17	0.52
44	Jim Kelly	1986	1996	4779	0.62	0.12	0.50
45	Brian Sipe	1974	1983	3439	0.32	-0.18	0.49
46	Tony Romo	2006	2016	4335	0.83	0.35	0.48
47	Gary Danielson	1977	1988	1932	0.39	-0.08	0.47
48	Jim McMahon	1982	1996	2573	0.32	-0.16	0.47
49	Dan Marino	1983	1999	8358	0.52	0.06	0.47
50	David Carr	2002	2012	2267	0.02	-0.44	0.46
51	Joe Theismann	1974	1985	3602	0.31	-0.15	0.46
52	Tom Brady	2000	2016	8224	0.58	0.14	0.44
53	Neil Lomax	1981	1988	3153	0.36	-0.07	0.43
54	Kirk Cousins	2012	2016	1556	0.67	0.24	0.43
55	Alex Smith	2005	2016	4108	0.09	-0.34	0.43
56	Norm Van Brocklin	1949	1960	2895	0.64	0.23	0.41
57	Jon Kitna	1997	2011	4442	0.20	-0.21	0.41
58	Dave Krieg	1980	1998	5311	0.37	-0.03	0.40
59	Bob Waterfield	1945	1952	1617	0.39	-0.01	0.39
60	Roger Staubach	1969	1979	2958	0.65	0.26	0.39
61	Aaron Rodgers	2005	2016	4657	0.70	0.33	0.37
62	Matt Schaub	2004	2016	3274	0.57	0.20	0.37
63	Daunte Culpepper	2000	2009	3199	0.65	0.28	0.37
64	Sid Luckman	1939	1950	1744	0.61	0.26	0.35
65	Steve McNair	1995	2007	4544	0.28	-0.07	0.35
66	Ryan Tannehill	2012	2016	2637	0.13	-0.21	0.34
67	Elvis Grbac	1994	2001	2445	0.26	-0.08	0.34
68	Bert Jones	1973	1982	2551	0.36	0.02	0.34
69	Billy Kilmer	1961	1978	2984	0.26	-0.06	0.31
70	Charlie Conerly	1948	1961	2833	0.19	-0.12	0.31
71	Marc Bulger	2002	2009	3171	0.36	0.06	0.30
72	Norm Snead	1961	1976	4353	0.24	-0.05	0.29
73	Mark Brunell	1994	2011	4640	0.26	-0.02	0.28
74	Steve Bartkowski	1975	1986	3456	0.21	-0.06	0.27
75	Philip Rivers	2004	2016	5917	0.58	0.32	0.27
76	Warren Moon	1984	2000	6823	0.34	0.10	0.24
77	David Garrard	2002	2010	2281	0.20	-0.04	0.24
78	Andy Dalton	2011	2016	3060	0.20	-0.02	0.22
79	Joe Flacco	2008	2016	4742	-0.02	-0.22	0.21
80	Wade Wilson	1981	1998	2428	0.20	0.02	0.18
81	Neil O'Donnell	1991	2003	3229	0.07	-0.09	0.16
82	Carson Palmer	2004	2016	6040	0.28	0.12	0.16
83	Derek Carr	2014	2016	1732	-0.37	-0.53	0.15
84	Jason Campbell	2006	2014	2518	-0.11	-0.26	0.14
85	Mike Livingston	1969	1979	1751	-0.02	-0.15	0.12
86	Matt Hasselbeck	1999	2015	5330	0.04	-0.08	0.12
87	Erik Kramer	1987	1999	2299	0.01	-0.11	0.12
88	Tommy Kramer	1977	1990	3651	-0.02	-0.13	0.11
89	Ben Roethlisberger	2004	2016	5932	0.57	0.46	0.11
90	Jim Everett	1986	1997	4923	0.17	0.07	0.11
91	Vince Ferragamo	1977	1986	1615	0.03	-0.05	0.08
92	Don Majkowski	1987	1996	1905	-0.10	-0.17	0.08
93	Kyle Boller	2003	2011	1519	-0.55	-0.63	0.07
94	Russell Wilson	2012	2016	2281	0.51	0.46	0.05
95	Matthew Stafford	2009	2016	4285	-0.03	-0.05	0.02
96	Frank Ryan	1958	1970	2133	0.18	0.16	0.02
97	Jay Cutler	2006	2016	4491	0.13	0.12	0.01
98	Craig Morton	1965	1982	3786	0.25	0.24	0.01
99	Dan Pastorini	1971	1983	3055	-0.28	-0.29	0.01
100	Joey Harrington	2002	2007	2538	-0.62	-0.62	0.01
101	Randall Cunningham	1985	2001	4289	0.06	0.07	-0.01
102	Jeff George	1990	2001	3967	0.09	0.12	-0.03
103	Steve Bono	1985	1999	1701	-0.45	-0.42	-0.03
104	Kyle Orton	2005	2014	2712	-0.24	-0.21	-0.04
105	Jeff Hostetler	1988	1997	2338	0.11	0.17	-0.06
106	Bobby Layne	1948	1962	3700	0.06	0.12	-0.06
107	Eddie LeBaron	1952	1963	1796	0.07	0.14	-0.07
108	Don Meredith	1960	1968	2308	0.11	0.18	-0.07
109	Charley Johnson	1961	1975	3392	0.06	0.13	-0.07
110	John Elway	1983	1998	7250	0.07	0.16	-0.09
111	Ryan Fitzpatrick	2005	2016	3876	-0.33	-0.23	-0.10
112	Lynn Dickey	1971	1985	3125	0.18	0.29	-0.11
113	Chad Henne	2008	2014	1954	-0.34	-0.23	-0.12
114	Chris Chandler	1988	2004	4005	0.11	0.23	-0.12
115	Boomer Esiason	1984	1997	5205	0.10	0.23	-0.13
116	Jay Fiedler	1998	2005	1717	-0.01	0.14	-0.15
117	Jack Trudeau	1986	1995	1644	-0.49	-0.34	-0.15
118	Kordell Stewart	1995	2003	2358	-0.39	-0.24	-0.15
119	Drew Bledsoe	1993	2006	6717	-0.17	-0.01	-0.16
120	Bubby Brister	1986	2000	2212	-0.32	-0.15	-0.16
121	Richard Todd	1976	1985	2967	-0.11	0.07	-0.19
122	Mike Phipps	1970	1981	1799	-0.51	-0.32	-0.19
123	Jim Zorn	1976	1987	3149	-0.18	0.01	-0.19
124	Matt Cassel	2005	2016	2624	-0.42	-0.23	-0.19
125	Earl Morrall	1956	1976	2689	0.16	0.35	-0.19
126	Rodney Peete	1989	2004	2346	-0.04	0.17	-0.21
127	Tom Flores	1960	1969	1715	-0.15	0.06	-0.21
128	Byron Leftwich	2003	2012	1605	-0.33	-0.10	-0.23
129	George Blanda	1949	1975	4007	-0.27	-0.02	-0.25
130	Phil Simms	1979	1993	4647	-0.04	0.22	-0.25
131	Stan Humphries	1989	1997	2516	-0.13	0.14	-0.27
132	John Hadl	1962	1977	4687	-0.06	0.21	-0.27
133	Josh McCown	2002	2016	2121	-0.37	-0.09	-0.27
134	Joe Ferguson	1973	1990	4519	-0.31	-0.03	-0.27
135	Trent Green	1997	2008	3740	0.27	0.56	-0.29
136	Donovan McNabb	1999	2011	5374	-0.14	0.17	-0.30
137	Bill Kenney	1980	1988	2430	-0.17	0.15	-0.31
138	Mark Rypien	1988	2001	2613	-0.12	0.20	-0.32
139	Bill Nelsen	1963	1972	1905	0.01	0.33	-0.32
140	Vinny Testaverde	1987	2007	6701	-0.15	0.19	-0.34
141	Jim Hart	1966	1984	5076	-0.22	0.15	-0.37
142	Jake Plummer	1997	2006	4350	-0.27	0.11	-0.37
143	Ron Jaworski	1974	1989	4117	-0.28	0.10	-0.38
144	Chris Miller	1987	1999	2892	-0.35	0.04	-0.38
145	Tobin Rote	1950	1966	2907	-0.41	-0.02	-0.39
146	Jim Plunkett	1971	1986	3701	-0.16	0.24	-0.40
147	Jeff Blake	1992	2005	3241	-0.28	0.15	-0.42
148	Jake Delhomme	1999	2011	2932	-0.10	0.33	-0.43
149	Eli Manning	2004	2016	6825	-0.28	0.18	-0.46
150	Dave Brown	1992	2000	1634	-0.60	-0.13	-0.46
151	Trent Dilfer	1994	2007	3172	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47
152	Mark Malone	1981	1989	1648	-0.73	-0.26	-0.47
153	Rick Mirer	1993	2003	2043	-0.85	-0.36	-0.48
154	Eric Hipple	1981	1989	1546	-0.32	0.17	-0.49
155	Steve Beuerlein	1988	2003	3328	-0.02	0.47	-0.50
156	Joe Namath	1965	1977	3762	-0.11	0.40	-0.50
157	Babe Parilli	1952	1969	3330	-0.43	0.12	-0.56
158	Daryle Lamonica	1963	1974	2601	-0.17	0.41	-0.58
159	Scott Mitchell	1992	2001	2346	-0.39	0.19	-0.59
160	Charlie Batch	1998	2012	1604	-0.32	0.30	-0.62
161	Blake Bortles	2014	2016	1706	-0.82	-0.20	-0.63
162	Terry Bradshaw	1970	1983	3901	-0.21	0.45	-0.66
163	Jack Kemp	1957	1969	3073	-0.48	0.20	-0.68
164	Kerry Collins	1995	2011	6261	-0.59	0.10	-0.69
165	Josh Freeman	2009	2015	2048	-0.63	0.11	-0.74
166	Colin Kaepernick	2011	2016	1692	-0.49	0.33	-0.83
167	Tony Banks	1996	2005	2356	-0.64	0.19	-0.83
168	Aaron Brooks	2000	2006	2963	-0.49	0.34	-0.84
169	Billy Joe Tolliver	1989	1999	1707	-0.87	-0.01	-0.87
170	Doug Flutie	1986	2005	2151	-0.51	0.37	-0.87
171	Marc Wilson	1980	1990	2081	-0.60	0.28	-0.87
172	Mark Sanchez	2009	2016	2285	-0.81	0.07	-0.88
173	Ed Brown	1954	1965	1987	-0.33	0.57	-0.90
174	Mike Pagel	1982	1993	1509	-1.01	-0.10	-0.91
175	Andrew Luck	2012	2016	2651	-0.55	0.38	-0.93
176	Mike Tomczak	1985	1999	2337	-0.57	0.40	-0.97
177	Steve Grogan	1975	1990	3593	-0.33	0.68	-1.01
178	Rex Grossman	2003	2011	1562	-0.95	0.20	-1.15
179	Cotton Davidson	1954	1968	1752	-0.87	0.30	-1.17
180	Gus Frerotte	1994	2008	3106	-0.69	0.55	-1.24
181	Michael Vick	2001	2015	3217	-0.75	0.50	-1.25
182	Doug Williams	1978	1989	2507	-0.90	0.47	-1.37
183	Cam Newton	2011	2016	2928	-0.71	0.73	-1.44
184	Derek Anderson	2006	2016	1596	-1.20	0.35	-1.55
185	Jay Schroeder	1985	1994	2808	-0.93	0.85	-1.78

On the other side of the spectrum is, unsurprisingly, Jay Schroeder followed by Derek Anderson and Cam Newton. Schroeder, Newton, and Steve Grogan are the top three players in standard deviations above average in yards per completion, while Anderson, Mike Pagel and Rex Grossman are the bottom three in completion percentage.

Meanwhile, Kyle Boller, Sam Bradford and Frank Tripucka are the bottom three in yards per completion.

What stands out to you?

References[+]

References
↑1	Despite Montana finishing with a higher Yd/Cmp average for his career, that is a function of era; Montana never finished higher than 10th in that metric, while Young had three top-5 finishes and three more top-10 finishes.

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