Career Receiving Yards Leaders (Above Junk Levels)

by Chase Stuart on June 23, 2016

[Note: Due to a scheduling blunder, you may have missed yesterday’s post on single-season leaders.]

The GOAT

On Sunday, I explained one methodology to modify receiving yards in a way to give more value to top receivers while devaluing junk games. You can read that explanation here, and see the Justin Blackmon example.

Jerry Rice, of course, will rank as the top receiver by this or any other methodology, especially if that system excludes Don Hutson (today’s data only goes back to 1960). In fact, using a 3X baseline, Rice still gained 15,314 receiving yards after removing junk yards, more than every wide receiver in NFL history has gained including junk yards other than Terrell Owens. Rice was just incredible.

Perhaps the first real surprise on the list is Don Maynard, who ranks 6th among all players since 1960 by this methodology. The Jets Hall of Famer currently ranks 26th in career receiving yards, but 30 years ago, he was the all-time leader in that category. Maynard benefits here for some era adjustments — his 14-game seasons get prorated, the baseline for junk seasons was lower in the ’60s and ’70s — and his dominant play for a long stretch is rewarded.

The table below shows the top players by this methodology since 1960. Here’s how to read the table, using the Owens line. Using a 2.5X baseline, he ranks 2nd all-time. His career began in 1996 and ended in 2010, and he had 9,386 receiving yards above that junk baseline. Using a 3X baseline, he still ranks 2nd, and had 10,493 non-junk receiving yards.

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Search:

2.5x Rk	Receiver	First Yr	Last Yr	2.5X Yards	3x Rk	3X Yards
1	Jerry Rice	1985	2004	13786	1	15314
2	Terrell Owens	1996	2010	9386	2	10493
3	Randy Moss	1998	2012	9075	3	10057
4	Isaac Bruce	1994	2009	8741	4	9826
5	Marvin Harrison	1996	2008	8729	5	9734
6	Don Maynard	1958	1973	8511	6	9517
7	James Lofton	1978	1993	8338	7	9322
8	Andre Johnson	2003	2015	8198	8	9175
9	Torry Holt	1999	2009	8062	10	8984
10	Tim Brown	1988	2004	8016	9	9105
11	Reggie Wayne	2001	2014	7861	11	8913
12	Lance Alworth	1962	1972	7840	14	8621
13	Steve Smith	2001	2015	7804	12	8825
14	Steve Largent	1976	1989	7778	13	8766
15	Henry Ellard	1983	1998	7597	15	8566
16	Cris Carter	1987	2002	7540	16	8565
17	Jimmy Smith	1992	2005	7365	19	8207
18	Michael Irvin	1988	1999	7284	21	8065
19	Larry Fitzgerald	2004	2015	7258	18	8275
20	Anquan Boldin	2003	2015	7192	20	8177
21	Tony Gonzalez	1997	2013	7079	17	8350
22	Calvin Johnson	2007	2015	6949	24	7776
23	Andre Reed	1985	2000	6917	23	7923
24	Charlie Joiner	1969	1986	6884	22	7924
25	Harold Jackson	1968	1983	6670	26	7519
26	Art Monk	1980	1995	6567	25	7559
27	Rod Smith	1995	2006	6363	28	7188
28	Stanley Morgan	1977	1990	6324	31	7094
29	Brandon Marshall	2006	2015	6268	29	7112
30	Chad Johnson	2001	2011	6241	32	7018
31	Irving Fryar	1984	2000	6227	27	7235
32	Derrick Mason	1997	2011	6159	30	7111
33	Hines Ward	1998	2011	6070	33	7001
34	Gary Clark	1985	1995	6070	34	6843
35	Art Powell	1959	1968	5930	38	6625
36	Keenan McCardell	1992	2007	5878	37	6736
37	Muhsin Muhammad	1996	2009	5873	35	6779
38	Charley Taylor	1964	1977	5869	36	6742
39	Joey Galloway	1995	2010	5759	39	6581
40	Wes Chandler	1978	1988	5741	44	6391
41	Roddy White	2005	2015	5680	40	6498
42	Paul Warfield	1964	1977	5602	41	6422
43	Keyshawn Johnson	1996	2006	5587	42	6409
44	Fred Biletnikoff	1965	1978	5511	43	6395
45	Cliff Branch	1972	1985	5503	45	6183
46	Andre Rison	1989	2000	5323	46	6059
47	Eric Moulds	1996	2007	5246	48	5995
48	Bob Hayes	1965	1975	5245	49	5893
49	Harold Carmichael	1971	1984	5198	47	6003
50	Herman Moore	1991	2002	5178	54	5820

Showing 1 to 50 of 200 entries

Torry Holt ranks 9th (using a 2.5X baseline) and 10th (at 3x) here, and Andre Johnson ranks 8th in both. The Hall of Fame has a receiver problem, so it will be very interesting to see how their candidacies are judged. Of the two, Johnson seems to have the stronger case, given the weaker quarterbacks he played with and that Holt played on more pass-happy teams. But it’s hard not to find Holt deserving.

Steve Smith, a Football Perspective hero, ranks 13th (or 12th), and that’s before any adjustment for playing on run-heavy teams or with bad quarterbacks.

Henry Ellard ranks 15th here, and this is just looking at receiving yards and not giving Ellard any credit for his incredible first down rate. The Hall of Fame seems to have forgotten about him, but it shouldn’t.

Charlie Joiner checks in at 24th using a 2.5X baseline, 22nd with a 3X, and 22nd in raw receiving yards. That’s certainly a better showing here than he has in other systems: Joiner was very good for a very long time, and he fares better here than he does in something focused on pure dominance. That’s how to describe Joiner’s career in a nutshell: he ranked 13th in True Receiving Yards, but 62nd in TRY based on a player’s top six seasons.

What stands out to you on today’s list? I don’t advocate this as the best — or even a great — way to rank receivers. But I would say by removing junk yards and having an era adjustment, it’s got two clear advantages over regular receiving yards.

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